Nine Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- August 12, 2020

Huge day for stories: see this early morning note. 

OPEC basket, link here: $45.21. Saudi desperately needs $100-oil if it's going to maintain that $75-billion dividend for the next five years; and no one is projecting oil to go over  $50 in the next five years; this will be fascinating to watch.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$42.19	8/12/2020	08/12/2019	08/12/2018	08/12/2017	08/12/2016
Active Rigs	12	61	60	57	3

Nine wells coming off confidential list -- Wednesday, August 12, 2020: 40 for the month; 111 for the quarter, 557 for the year:

• 36981, drl/TAI, CLR, LCU Truman 7-23H, Long Creek, no production data,
  
• 36744, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26A, Heart Butte, no production data,
  
• 36421, SI/A, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, Stony Creek, t--; cum 107K 6/20; did not shut down during 5/20;
  
• 36350, drl/A, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-5, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 117K 6/20; did not shut down during 5/20; a 31K month;
  
• 36159, drl/A, Hess, GO-Hauge-156-97-2116H-3, Dollar Joe, t--; cum 84K 6/20; shut in, 6/20; did not shut in during 5/20;
  
• 35721, SI/A, Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 11-1 4B, Banks, t--; cum 121K 6/20; was not shut in; a 30K month;
  
• 35600, SI/NC, Enerplus, Alto 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 124K 6/20; did not shut down; however, only 24 days in 6/20; a 28K month;
  
• 35599, SI/NC, Enerplus, Haze 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 141K 6/20; did not shut down; 29 days in 6/20; a 34K month;
  
• 35598, SI/NC, Enerplus, Vapor 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 93K 6/20; did not shut down, but only 10 days in 6/20; a 33K month;
  

RBN Energy: Canada's overseas propane exports come at the expense of the US, part 3.

Canada’s propane market has quickly morphed from one characterized by abundant supply to one facing a tightening supply/demand balance, with direct exports to Asia playing an increasingly important role. This tension became evident in May 2019, when the start-up of the Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal (RIPET) in British Columbia, Canada’s first direct export connection for propane to Asian markets, effectively eliminated the usual seasonal surplus for propane in Western Canada. With rail exports of propane to the U.S. often reliant on that excess for restocking in the summer months and as a reliable fallback supply in the cold winter months, the prospect of fewer or no periods of excess supply may be signalling trouble for some U.S. regions that have come to rely on those volumes. What’s more, within a few months, another propane export terminal in BC will be starting up, further reducing what’s left for the U.S. market. In today’s blog, we conclude our series examining the Western Canadian propane market by considering the impacts of Canada-to-Asia propane sales on U.S. propane consumers and propane prices.

The Canadian propane market is transitioning into an all-new era. We don’t just mean changes wrought this year by wild oil price swings, producer spending cutbacks, and the unpredictable demand landscape generated by COVID-19 disruptions – although these have been important. The new era started to emerge in mid-2019 with demand and exports having caught up to and more frequently surpassing available supplies. The result has been a rapid tightening of a market once thought to be grossly oversupplied outside of higher demand winter heating needs.

We started exploring Western Canada’s propane market in Part 1 of this series, where we delved into the changes brought about by the start-up of AltaGas and Vopak’s jointly owned, 50-Mb/d RIPET facility 15 months ago. RIPET is Canada’s first propane export terminal providing direct access to Asian markets from its own shores and it reached its export capacity within a month of opening. It joined the only other propane export terminal operating on the West Coast, the Petrogas-owned terminal in Ferndale, WA, which sends out propane that is railed in from Western Canada and other sources.