Friday, May 2, 2025

Phoenix Operating With Five New Permits -- May 2, 2025

Locator: 48572B.

WTI: $58.29.

Active rigs: 29.

Five new permits, #41871 - #31875, inclusive:

  • Operator: Phoenix Operating
  • Field: Big Stone (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Goodnight well, SWSW 22-159-98, 
      • to be sited 489 FSL and 1128 FWL; and, 
    • also has permits for four Nystuen wells, SWSE 20-159-98, 
      • to be sited 1053 FSL and 1675 / 1795 FEL.

Four permits canceled:

  • WPX (2): two Appaloosa permits, NWNE 17-149-94, McKenzie County;
  • Grayson Mill (2): two Owan Trust permits, NWNW 29-154-103; Williams County.

Driverless Truck Company Aurora Launches In Dallas -- May 2, 2025

Locator: 48571EVS.

Link here.

This is simply incredible.


This must drive railroad enthusiasts bonkers -- trains on a track, which could be run 1000% remotely, require two engineers. Why? To be there in case of a derailment. But I digress. Have there ever been any studies comparing derailment rates with five engineers vs two engineers vs zero engineers per train?

Back to driverless trucks. Again, this is a huge story. First company to deploy Class 8 -- the big semis you see everywhere -- self-driving trucks -- and where do they launch? In Texas. In Dallas to be specific. 

Where they could really use this technology? Road trains in Australia. Link here, from nine years ago.

As for the driverless trucks in Dallas, I can't think of a better state in which to launch driverless trucks. 

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I-35

Of all the interstate stretches in the US, the I-35 stretch, from Texas-Mexico border to the Oklahoma state line is the interstate stretch to watch

1. I-35: Laredo, TX (Mexico) to Duluth, Minnesota. Doesn't make the top ten list because so much of I-35 is in fly-over country, but in Texas, I-35 is THE interstate. Along with I-10. Which does make the top ten list among US interstates.

2. Texas I-35: 509 miles, in Texas, from Laredo to Oklahoma border.

3. "Texas Silicon Valley" -- I-35 --  Waco to the north, then Austin, then San Antonio. Easily compares with I-10; I-95, I-5.

4. DFW -- I-35 divides into I-35 EAST (Dallas) and I-35 WEST (Ft Worth).  Right now north Dallas is population center in geographic DFW; in 2050, it is projected that northwest Ft Worth will be geographic center -- where there is a yet another airport in the DFW area;  where Wabtex (formerly GE Transportation) manufactures BNSF locomotives; where Texas Motor Speedway is located (and where Sophia plays her weekend soccer game this weekend).

5. I-35 EAST goes straight north from Dallas  -- 75 miles -- to the largest casino in the US (the largest casino in the United States, based on gaming space, is WinStar World Casino and Resort in Thackerville, Oklahoma); also huge water recreation center there where our daughter goes to compete in paddle board competitions.

6. Amazon fulfillment centers in DFW area are incredibly -- size and number and more and more and more electric Amazon Prime vans.

7. Where will they get all the drivers? A lot will come from other states -- especially California.

Crowd-Pleaser -- Definition Of A Populist President -- May 2, 2025

Locator: 48570HARVARD.

Link here to Barron's.

Right, wrong, indifferent: constitutionally, I understand separation of state and church, and the latter's tax-exempt status.

I don't understand why universities earn a tax-exempt status. This will be fascinating to watch. Especially after they have a billion dollars in endowments and seem unwilling to lower tuition and fees. Harvard:

  • endowment: $55 billion
  • undergraduate enrollment: 10,000
  • annual tuition, $100,000 x 10,000 = $1,000,000,000
  • $1,000,000,000 / $55,000,000,000 = 0.01818 = 1.818%
  • annual growth, tax exempt: >8%

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic mistakes

From The Harvard Crimson, link here:

Harvard Management Company returned 33.6 percent on its investments for the fiscal year ending in June 2021, skyrocketing the value of the University’s endowment to $53.2 billion, the largest sum in its history and an increase of $11.3 billion from the previous fiscal year.

One assumes the endowment includes "new" money from new contributions, and moving federal dollars from other accounts into the endowment.

Don't bet against MSFT.

Don't bet against AAPL.

Don't take on the President of the US.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. See disclaimers -- links to disclaimers -- at every page on the blog.

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Another Crowd-Pleaser

Nikola Jokićs top 30 plays. Link here.

Link to The NY Times.

US Economy -- On Fire -- In A Good Way -- May 2, 2025

Locator: 48569US.

Link here.

XOM earnings: down y/y but beat expectations. Link here.

Court hearing: XOM vs CVX over HES set for May 26, 2025.

Inflation Watch -- Airline Tickets -- Air Fare -- Unchanged In 15 Years -- May 2, 2025

Locator: 48568AIRFARE.

Inflation watch.

Link here.

Folks worry about the price of eggs. It's the big-ticket items that should be of concern. But even more: if you don't fly (or fly often), this won't matter to you. For me, it's a big deal: non-stops DFW - PDX incredibly reasonable pricing.


Defense Spending -- US -- FY26 -- May 2, 2025

Locator: 48568DOD.

DOD budget: whoo-hoo! Link here. Analysis

The $1.01-trillion is the highest on record; this is for FY2026; it's 13% higher than FY2025. That means the DOD budget for FY2025 (this current year) must have been in the $895 billion range; the request was for $850 billion for FY2025 early on. Hunch: US Navy will get the bulk of this new funding.


US Field Production Of Crude Oil -- Extends Record Run -- May 2, 2025

Locator: 48567OIL.

US field production of crude oil, link here.

Note:

  • all-time record for the month of February;
  • second consecutive year greater than 13 million bopd in the month of February
  • thirteenth consecutive month greater than 13 million bopd
  • eighteen of the last nineteen months: greater than 13 million bopd
  • all this despite WTI price having trouble staying at $60

What's It All About, Alfie? Apple, AAPL, And The Bakken -- May 2, 2025

Locator: 48566B.

Jobs: April hiring remains steady --

  • unemployment rate, at 4.2%, unchanged
  • added 177,000 new jobs; topped expectations of 133,000

DOD budget: whoo-hoo! Link here. Analysis.

AAPL: link here.

Reminder: this is not an investment site. See disclaimer, on every page of the blog. 

US field production, crude oil: extends record for thirteenth consecutive month. Link here.

RBN Energy: must-read today, see below.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: still with a $5- handle -- $58.96. OPEC quietly maintains current position.

New wells:

  • Sunday, May 4, 2025: 14 for the month, 114 for the quarter, 306 for the year,
    • 41146, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 5C,
    • 41065, conf, BR, Tilton 2C,
    • 40719, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5A-31-3H,
    • 40712, conf, Silver Hill Energy, Tank E 156-98-1-12-3MBH,
  • Saturday, May 3, 2025: 10 for the month, 110 for the quarter, 302 for the year,
    • 41066, conf, BR, Tilton 2D,
    • 40718, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5A-31-2H,
    • 39817, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-7,
  • Friday, May 2, 2025: 7 for the month, 107 for the quarter, 299 for the year,
    • 41142, conf, CLR, Hayes 9-6HSL,
    • 28767, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-21-28-2H,
    • 28766, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-21-28-10H,
    • 25072, conf, Grayson Mill, Sand Creek State 153-96-16-2H,

RBN Energy: how Woodside's FID on Louisiana LNG shakes things up. Archived.

Woodside Energy’s final investment decision (FID) on the $17.5 billion Louisiana LNG terminal was a stunner. For one thing, only 1 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) of the project’s 16.5 MMtpa (2.2 Bcf/d) of capacity is under contract — U.S. LNG export projects typically have commitments for two-thirds or more of their output before pulling the trigger. The project will also have an outsized impact on gas flows in a region already struggling to keep up, and it may well upend plans for other projects in the works. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at Louisiana LNG, Woodside’s daring development approach, and the terminal’s impacts on gas demand, gas flows and pre-FID projects.

Australia’s Woodside Energy announced April 28 that it will establish its LNG foothold in the U.S. by building Louisiana LNG, a project the company acquired in October 2024 when it purchased the nearly bankrupt Tellurian — and its Driftwood LNG project — for $900 million. Driftwood LNG came close to becoming a reality more than once, only to crash, burn and be rebranded. Now, with a new owner and name, the three-train terminal just south of Lake Charles will be built, with first LNG expected in 2029 and its full capacity online in 2031.

We’ll get to Louisiana LNG’s physical particulars in a moment but first let’s look at Woodside Energy and the seemingly audacious decision by the company and its project partner — Stonepeak, the New York City-based investment firm — to take FID on an 11-figure project with less than one-sixteenth of its output under long-term contract.

Woodside Energy

Woodside is Australia’s largest independent oil and gas company and operates primarily offshore; it is also an international LNG supplier. The company expects to produce up to 537 Mboe/d in 2025, with about 40% of that to feed its LNG terminals (~1.25 Bcf/d), another 20% as pipeline gas (~623 MMcf/d) and the rest as oil (~215 Mb/d). The company operates two LNG terminals in Australia. One is the North West Shelf Project (NWSP; magenta diamond with No. 5 in left inset of Figure 1 below), which produces gas for domestic consumption and LNG export. NWSP has five trains with a total capacity of 16.9 MMtpa (2.2 Bcf/d). Woodside also operates Pluto LNG (magenta diamond at bottom right of left inset), a single-train, 4.9-MMtpa (0.65 Bcf/d) export terminal. An 8-MMtpa (1.1 Bcf/d) expansion is underway, with first LNG expected in 2026. The expansion is part of the Scarborough Energy Project (magenta diamond at left in left inset), which also includes development of the Scarborough Field (gold-shaded area) in the Carnavorn Basin off the coast of Western Australia. Woodside is also part of the Sunrise LNG project in the Timor Sea (between East Timor and Australia; striped magenta diamond in right inset), which is still pending development agreements.