Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Thursday; EOG With Two Monster Wells

23209, 2,009, MRO, William USA 31-2TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data;
23359, drl, CLR, Atlanta 14-6H, Baker, no production data;
23422, 142, EOG, Trenton 2-0817H, Rosebud; t3/13; cum 44K 7/13;
23763, 1,519, EOG, Van Hook 127-0107H, Parshall; 62 stages; 12.43 million lbs all sand; middle Bakken; t4/13; cum 135K 7/13;
23764, 2,342, EOG, Van Hook 20-0107H, Parshall; 55 stages; 10.9 million lbs all sand; middle Bakken; t4/13; cum 153K 7/13;
23884, conf -> loc, XTO, FBIR Stephen 31X-19D, Heart Butte, no production data;
24291, 892, Newfield, Johnson 150-99-33-28-3H, South Tobacco Garden; t5/13; cum 32K 7/13;

23763, see above, EOG, Van Hook 127-0107H, Parshall; a huge well

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

23764, see above, EOG, Van Hook 20-0107H, Parshall; a huge well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

In this same section is sited:
  • 16965, 1,109, EOG, Hauge 1-01H, Parshall, a short lateral; t6/09;  cum 421K 7/13;

Wednesday Evening Links, News, And Views -- The President Has A Tiger By The Tail

Wow, things are happening fast. First, Syria: Congress can't seem to act fast enough to vote support for President O'Bama (if only they could vote so quickly on issues that affected Americans more close to home); Saudi Arabia will pay for the war; Americans won't take any casualties in the first act in this techno-war; it looks President O'Bama will get authority to send in US troops ("boots on the ground"). If we do see "boots on the ground" it will be a messier replay of Iraq. Vladimir is the wild card; see below. Of course, things are in flux, but those are some of the headlines. It could just blow over, too, I suppose, and come to nothing. Futures are up a very small 14 points, so the market, at the moment is not worried. Oil is pretty much flat at $108.

The AFL-CIO finally gets it (something regular readers have known for a long, long time): employers are cutting hours to 29.5 hours to avoid ObamaCare. It will take an act of Congress to change that part of the bill. That cannot be done with an executive order. Employers better watch out. My hunch: employers will be responsible for all employees -- regardless of hours. Employers will outsource as much as they can. They will go to individual contracts. It will be a mess. Train wreck. Can you imaging Wal-Mart hiring each employee on individual contracts? There's no reason why it can't be done. A lot of folks work on contracts. Maybe it would be a "positive" for high school students working for McDonald's to learn to read contracts, become individual contractors. They could work as many hours as the two sides agreed upon. I could see fairly simply contracts.

Just when the AFL-CIO finally gets it and EVERYONE finally seems to get it, when the president should be devoting 24/7 to saving O'BamaCare, he now has a much bigger war than he had planned. He says it will be brief, limited; but wars never go as planned. My hunch: Vladimir Putin won't let Syria go easily. We might very well see a replay of the Cuban Missile Crisis over Syria. Putin has his own problems at home, and there's nothing like a war to improve your ratings. It's scary to think that John Kerry is one of the best and brightest masterminding this impending debacle.

There is every possibility there is no more agenda for this administration once the war starts.

I think the president might be hanging on to the tail of a tiger.

I've Got A Tiger By The Tail, Buck Owens

Four (4) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; Several Huge Producing Wells Completed

Active rigs: 187

Four (4) new permits --
  • Operators: Slawson (2), CLR, OXY USA
  • Fields: Van Hook (Mountrail), Whitetail (Billings), Crooked Creek (Dunn)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right. 

And this is what the manufacturing stage looks like and the backlog of fracking being caught up.  Twelve (12) producing wells were completed and reported:
  • 23302, 1,602, Statoil, Timber Creek 13-24 1TFH, Alexander, t7/13; cum --
  • 23887, 2,064, Statoil, Eveland 30-19 1H, Briar Creek, t7/12; cum --
  • 23972, 3,249, Statoil, State 36-1 4TFH, Stony Creek, t8/13; cum --
  • 23973, 2,995, Statoil, Rose 12-13 2TFH, Avoca, t8/13; cum --
  • 24457, 1,662, Liberty Resources, Erickson 152-103-26-35-1H, Glass Bluff, t8/13; cum --
  • 24604, 2,272, KOG, P Wood 154-98-4-27-34-13HB, Truax, t7/13; cum 3K 7/13;
  • 24790, 1,859, KOG, Smokey 16-7-19-16H, Pembroke, t8/13; cum --
  • 25032, 2,244, Liberty Resources, Erickson 152-103-26-35-2H, t8/13; cum --
  • 25342, 370, Whiting, Curt Braaflat 11-11H, Sanish, June 21 - July 4;  t7/13; cum --
  • 25350, 1,501, Whiting, Carl Kannianen 24-33H, Sanish, t8/13; cum --
  • 25560, 90, Corinthian Exploration, Corinthian Skarphol 13-28 1H, North Souris, a Spearfish well; 160-acre spacing; 5,767 TD; t81/3; cum --
Some well name changes:
  • 20259, conf, KOG, Skunk Creek 3-24-25-14H3 --  per the November 18, 2013 dar
  • 23707, conf, North Plains, Amundson 160-100-22-15-13B-1H is now simply Amundson 13B-22-1H; not significant
  • 24239, conf, Zenergy, Ranger 28-33HPNC, is now simply Ranger 28-33H (a significant change)
  • 25653, conf, Petro-Hunt, State of North Dakota 154-99-16A-6H,  is now ... 5H

Random Update On American Eagle Energy

A reader alerted me to the rise in the price of shares of American Eagle Energy this past month. It is quite impressive. Very impressive.

One can see American Eagle Energy's new presentation at their home page. At the link, it's at the lower right, easy to find.

More later; off to swimming with the granddaughters.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Around The Horn: The Market Takes A Surprsing Turn; Oil Drop A Dollar; I Guess Syria Over Sold; Natural Gas Story? COP Just Hit A 52-Week High

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

KOG flat. But something changed. They show the range with a top of $10.10. Yesterday the range had a top of $10.22.  optionsMonster says data suggests more gains for KOG.

Oasis continues to struggle.

CVX and XOM up slightly; COP with a 1% gain. COP hit a 52-week high. But not because of natural gas play; because court ruled Venezuela will need to pay COP for "illegal" nationalization some years ago (2007).

EOG up slightly.

CHK is down a nickel.

SD up slightly; SD continues its nice run.

HK flat/maybe up a penny; TPLM up about 1.5% -- very nice move. 

UNP up a $1.13, almost a percent.

I don't follow BNSF (BRK) much any more; BRK follows the market in general.

ENB, EEP mixed; one up, one down. Often seen.

SRE struggles; someone noted that SRE now pays > 3%.  TransCanada up slightly.

Market surprised me -- a quick move to the upside, and oil dropping a dollar. I guess after five days of speeches, and "I didn't set a red line personally" traders are getting tired of Syria. Ready to move on to the next crisis du jour.

I Knew I Wouldn't Have To Wait Long ...

... this past Saturday, just three or four days ago, I posted an article and a comment about some "journalist" reporting that Americans were losing their love affair with the automobile. At that time I had one word for it: buffalo chips. I guess that's two words but my wife told me not to use the one word I used Saturday. Smile.

Saturday, CNBC was reporting:
So, how to explain the fact that even as the economy finally is showing real signs of recovery the number of miles driven continues to decline. That report from the Federal Highway Administration is just the latest indication that Americans may be falling out of love with their automobiles
The link takes you a wonderfully written post by a brilliant columnist. LOL. But I digress. 

I knew when I wrote that article I wouldn't have to wait long, but, wow, only four days later Ford is reporting:
  • Ford Motor Company August U.S. retail sales increase 20 percent – best retail sales month since August 2006; total sales up 12 percent
  • Fusion sales achieve August sales record; strongest gains coming from the western region of the country
  • Led by Fiesta and C-MAX hybrids, Ford small car sales jump 30 percent, driving coastal and millennial retail share gains
  • F-Series sales top 70,000 vehicles for the second time this year
  • All-new Lincoln MKZ posts best-ever August sales
  • Ford announces 2013 fourth-quarter production of 785,000 vehicles, up 7 percent from 2012
My hunch is that the only ones losing their love affair with the automobile are journalists who have some kind of agenda. So much filler on CNBC


Now, Chrysler reporting the same thing -- sales up 12%. Reuters is reporting: 
Chrysler Group LLC reported a 12 percent gain in U.S. August auto sales and predicted that the industry will continue on its hot streak as it heads into the fall selling season, when new models are introduced.

Chrysler said that it expects a seasonally adjusted sales rate for August of 16.1 million vehicles, including medium and heavy trucks.
This overall sales rate would be in line with the 15.8 million forecast by 45 analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Industry estimates exclude medium and heavy trucks, which typically account for 300,000 in annual sales.

Montana Update

Reported at the Fairfield SunTimes.

CLR reported two Bakken completions:
  • Twyla 3-30H, 431, Richland County, 19,605 TD.
  • Toni 3-20H, 438, Richland County, 19,648 TD.
Oasis reported one Bakken completion:
  • M&M T 2958 13-26H, 852, Roosevelt County, 20,826 TD.
EOG reported one Bakken completion:
  • Stateline 13-3635H, 600, Roosevelt County, 16,645 TD.
Fidelity reported a Heath (Tyler) completion:
  • Coffee 31-2H, 219, Rosebud County, 9,470 TD.
Of more interest, perhaps, is the number of expired permits. Permits for three Bakken wells expired in Richland County (EOG, Slawson, and Whiting permits). In Sheridan County, two permits expired, both TAQA North USA Inc permits. We often see two or three permits expire in any given month in North Dakota, but the percentage/denominator is quite different. I don't know the number of permits being issued by Montana for OIL wells, but it is considerably less than the 200 permits/month being issued by North Dakota. Generally speaking, a Bakken permit that expires in North Dakota is administrative; the well will eventually be drilled in "that" location but by a different operator, or sited slightly differently, requiring a new permit.
A big "thank you" to Don for sending me the link. 

Wednesday Morning News And Views -- Part III -- IEA Getting Ready To Release Strategic Oil Reserves? -- The Keystone XL No Longer Matters To Refiners

No red line in Syria: I'm glad we got this cleared up: President O'Bama is now stating he never "personally" set a red line in Syria. Wow, I can't make this stuff up. He is perennial 5 y/o who keeps getting caught with his hand in the cookie jar, has an alibi, and never suffers the media consequences.  Does anyone even listen to him any more, other than the RINOs (Boehner, et al). It seems they jumped on the bandwagon incredibly quickly. I'm still waiting to Nancy Pelosi on this one. I see that old dove Howard Dean now has talons; he supports strike on Syria because ... well, I guess it's just the thing to do to support this, the Mideast Muslims are going to be upset....and Putin...moving more ships into the Mediterranean...

The Keystone XL is history, at least for the refiners. The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
U.S. companies (ENB, VLO, EPD, CVE) that refine oil increasingly doubt that the controversial Keystone XL (TRP) pipeline expansion will ever be built, and now they don't particularly care, reports the Wall Street Journal.
Well, that was short and to the point. Wow, think of the millions of dollars landowners along the route would have received over the years. Easy come, easy go. They can thank out-of-state activist environmentalists who like to see increased truck traffic and increased rail traffic. [Later: a reader notes the following with regard to income from a non-descript pipeline: 3-4 yrs ago the Bison natural gas pipeline was built across North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming. In Bowman County, ND, a portion of the pipeline goes from the northeast county line to the southwest county line. Bowman county receives approximately $800,000 per year in tax revenue,  $2,000 per day ... not bad for a pipeline in the ground. -- Excellent point; thank you for taking time to write. It just amazes me how much revenue the state of Nebraska was willing to give up for a few out-of-state activists.]


The Libyans have apparently grown tired of the oil and gas industry and want out. Rigzone is reporting:
The virtual shutdown of Libya's oil industry has squeezed supply as tightly as when the International Energy Agency (IEA) ordered a rare release of strategic oil reserves during the civil war in 2011.
Brent crude for immediate delivery has surged to its highest in a year and the cost of alternative supplies has jumped, increasing costs for oil refiners and ultimately consumers.
"The loss of Libyan crude oil is a major disruption. The current situation is as bad as in 2011," said Olivier Jakob of consultant Petromatrix in Zug. "We don't see how the IEA will be able to stay quiet for long."
Strikes at ports and pipelines have shrunk Libyan exports to around 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) - less than a tenth of capacity - and taken overall global outages from the Middle East and Africa above 3 million bpd - some 3.5 percent of global demand.
Supply breaks and the threat of U.S. military action against Syria pushed Brent futures above $117 a barrel last week. It traded around $115 on Tuesday even as the prospect of an imminent strike has faded.
That is not far from the $120-mark that in 2011 prompted the White House to go ahead with an IEA-coordinated strategic oil release in response to disruptions caused by the war in Libya - - only the third in the organization's history.

Maybe They Would Prefer Slicers And Dicers; Wednesday Morning News And Comment -- Part II


September 12, 2013: The Bismarck Tribune updates this story
The five tribes sent notice of their opposition to the Public Service Commission, which is holding the last of three public hearings on the project today in Williston.
The tribes’ unanimous vote of resolution was signed by Three Affiliated Tribes chairman Tex Hall and Sisseton-Wahpeton Oyate chairman Robert Shepherd, according to a statement issued Wednesday by the United Tribes of North Dakota. The two are chairman and secretary respectively of United Tribes.
Basin is planning to build a new 200-mile transmission line to carry some 500 megawatts of electricity from its lignite-fired Antelope Valley Station near Beulah into the oil patch west of Killdeer, through Watford City, Williston and over to Tioga.
I assume these five tribes will also support the Feds coming back in to regulate fracking on the reservation, effectively shutting drilling down on their historic land. If the Bakken is shut down, the transmission line won't be needed.  

Original Post

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
The $300 million project would route a 200-mile, 345-kilovolt transmission line from the existing Antelope Valley Station near Beulah, west through Killdeer and then north through Williston, ending at a substation near Tioga.
It would run through the boundaries of a National Park Service study led by North Dakota State University history professor Tom Isern, who characterizes the battlefield as the most significant historic site in the state.
The 1864 Battle of Killdeer Mountain was a faceoff between native Dakota and Lakota fighters and Brig. Gen. Alfred Sully’s forces. With more than 2,000 fighters on each side, Isern said, “it’s the largest military engagement ever to take place on the Great Plains.”
The Press says that the proposal will meet a lot of opposition. Of course, until now, no one, except Tom and six others have ever heard of this -- the "site of the largest engagement ever to take place on the Great Plains."

Maybe they would prefer a couple of wind farms instead. NIMBY.

Wednesday Morning News, Views, And Links -- Part I

Active rigs: 186 (steady)

RBN Energy: another excellent analysis of the natural gas glut and what the industry is doing about. One has to chuckle: elsewhere folks are frustrated by the "waste" of natural gas that is flared. Wait until they start choking back Bakken wells because of the flaring. Most folks probably don't recall that natural gas dropped to five cents/million BTU back in the nineties and traded for as little as a penny.  Operators won't pay for service lines when natural gas is trading for a nickel. With the reversal of REX, the Rocky Mountain region is going to see another influx of natural gas, from the Marcellus/Utica.

WSJ Links

US refiners don't care if Keystone XL gets built. We've been saying that for quite some time:
U.S. companies that refine oil increasingly doubt that the controversial Keystone XL pipeline expansion will ever be built, and now they don't particularly care.
Railroads are carrying soaring amounts of crude from Canada down to refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast, reducing the need for the TransCanada Corp. project, which is still awaiting approval from the U.S. government after two years of delays.
Meanwhile, a rival pipeline company, Enbridge Inc., is expanding existing pipes to carry Canadian crude south—and it doesn't need federal permission because it's using existing pipeline rights of way. In addition, so much oil is sloshing around the U.S. from its own wells that refiners don't need lots more heavy crude from the north to keep busy.
"Keystone XL has been back-burnered for so long that any relevant parties have been able to make plans as though the project never even existed in the first place," says Sam Margolin, an analyst at Cowen & Co.
TransCanada designed the proposed conduit to ship 830,000 barrels a day of heavy crude from western Canada, as well as lighter-grade oil from North Dakota shale fields, to the U.S. refining complex along the Gulf of Mexico.
Collateral casualties/unintended consequences. I guess the House just doesn't have time to consider immigration now that the debate over the Syrian missile crisis begins a new chapter. The House GOP signals it won't bring any immigration bills to the floor.  Folks can thank President O'Bama; there simply isn't room on the agenda, what with the Syrian thing now.

Op-Ed: we've been saying this for months -- the gap between the "haves" and the "have-nots" continues to wide. Obama's economy hits the poor, single women, and minorities the most (as in worse). At least they have their O'BamaPhones.