Week 6: February 5, 2024 -- February 11, 2024

Locator: 46775TOPSTORIES.

Top, top story

• US economy on fire; 
• the US stock market continues to hit new highs;
  
• S&P 500 closes above 5000 for first time ever
  

Top story: 

• regional "wars" everywhere: Gaza, Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Ukraine
• all are in somewhat of a "steady state" situation
• although Mideast heating up
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Israel getting ready to clear out last "urban area" -- no signs of letting up
• Rafah
• it appears Israel has all its diplomatic ducks in order to begin operations
  
• global shipping still avoids the Red Sea (Suez Canal)
  

Top international energy story:

• 
  
• 
  

Top national non-energy story:

• US Congress fails to pass southern border security bill.
  
• Taylor Swift first woman to win four Grammys in same category
• special counsel concludes "investigation" of President Biden over handling of classified information from his vice-presidential days; special counsel said they were interviewing an old man with a poor memory;
  

Top national energy story:

• Diamondback to acquire Endeavor
  
• Devon to acquire Enerplus
• California Resources to double oil output in $2.1B Aera deal

Focus on fracking: link here.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

Bakken economy:

Commentary: 

Devon Energy Offers To Acquire Enerplus -- February 9, 2024

Locator: 46774DEVON.

Updates

February 21, 2024: Chord Energy to merge with Enerplus. 

Original Note

Devon Energy offers to acquire Enerplus, including its Bakken assets -- NS Energy

Reuters.

Yahoo!Finance.

Neptune Operating With One New Permit -- February 9, 2024

Locator: 46773B.

Devon Energy offers to acquire Enerplus, including its Bakken assets -- NS Energy

Active rigs : 38

WTI: $76.84

One new permit, #40513:

• Operator: Neptune Operating
• Field: Briar Creek (Williams)
• Comments: 
• Neptune Operating has a permit for a Foster well, lot 3, section 4-152-104, 
• to be sited 441 FNL and 1789 FWL

One permit was renewed:

• 34575, loc, Enerplus, Tegu 151-94-17A-20H-TF-LL, Sanish-Antelope,
  

Immigration -- Economy -- February 9, 2024

Locator: 46772ECON.

Link here.

This is one of several reasons why the "southern surge doesn't bother me as much as it might.

Another reason: as long as DC politicians don't seem particularly concerned, why should I?

Then, this past week, despite a "clean bill," the border security bill was voted down in the US House. Apparently that bill took a lot of time to write and had strong bipartisan upport, but apparently not enough support to overcome partisan politics. I assume no politico hhad read the entire bill. Tells me all I need to know about this issue.

 As long as immigration pretty much matches birth rate, I think the country will manage.

Link here. Pew Research Center (a bit dated, but helpful).

Later, February 26, 2024: I can't recall if I've mentioned this before or not -- the southern surge will be a huge economic win for Texas. The Feds are pouring money into the state even as they suggest they don't want to stop illegal immigration. This is a huge story.

NFL Pay-Per-View? February 9, 2024

Locator: 46771NFL.

Two breaking stories at the end of the day.

Climate change: link here.

Televising NFL: link here.

From the linked article:

Amazon will stream its first-ever National Football League playoff game next season exclusively on its Prime Video service.

Last month, NBCUniversal’s Peacock streaming service had an exclusive playoff NFL game, which drew 23 million viewers and accounted for 30% of web traffic, making it the most streamed U.S. event ever.

Amazon had been offered the playoff game this season, but passed.

NBCU, a unit of Comcast , snagged the rights to it in a deal valued at least $110 million.

NBCU sought to keep the streaming-only playoff game next season, but Amazon had a clause as part of its deal to stream the NFL’s “Thursday Night Football” that allowed it to claim the game.

The NFL’s decision to put a playoff game on a streaming platform upset some fans and lawmakers, who saw it as a step toward more sports being offered on a pay-per-view type basis. 

The game was available on local TV in the markets of the two teams playing—the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins.

Wouldn't it be a hoot if the Dallas Cowboys ended up in that Amazon Prime playoff slot. LOL.

And then this:

Comcast hasn’t disclosed how many people in the U.S. signed up for Peacock ahead of the Chiefs-Dolphins game, but subscription analytics firm Antenna put that number at 2.8 million over a three-day period, which it said made it the single biggest subscriber-acquisition moment it ever measured.

Comment: I certainly don't want "pay-per-view" if it's going to cost me more money, but the biggest obstacle to PPV for me is clicking through the process. I feel uncomfortable sending my credit card information over an unknown pay site with which I don't have a relationship. I work very hard to minimize the brick-and-mortar sites and the virtual sites where I use my credit card.

However, with Amazon Prime Video I find it incredibly easy to PPV -- I never, never, never used do it but now, once every week or so, I'm either renting or buying a movie from Amazon Prime with my Amazon Prime credit card. It's two clicks: the first click to say "yes," and the second click to "start the movie." 

I don't own shares of Amazon -- I've talked about that before -- but if I ever do invest in Amazon (AMZN), I will definitely be a strong proponent of PPV. LOL. Seriously.

******************************
Meanwhile: Costco Named America's Favorite Supermarket

Replaces Trade Joe's.

But the bigger story! HEB! Whoo-hoo!

Trader Joe’s has lost the top spot as America’s favorite supermarket chain.

That’s according to the annual American Customer Satisfaction Index Retail and Consumer Shipping Study. Despite receiving the same score it got in 2023, the Monrovia, California-based supermarket is now in fourth place behind the three chains tied for first: Costco, Publix and H-E-B.

Rounding out the top five is the Walmart-owned wholesale retailer Sam’s Club.

Last Seasonal Flu -- Covid-19 Post For The 2023 - 2024 Season -- February 9, 2024

Locator: 46770FLU.

Unless something  unexpected happens, this will be the last post on seasonal flu / Covid-19 for the 2023 - 2024 season.

Link here.

NVDA

Locator: 46769INV.

Holy mackerel. I just got back from a short bicycle errand and I return -- turn on CNBC, "Half-Time Report" and see NVDA is up another $19 / share. Are you kidding me?

• closed up $24; closed up another 3.6%; goes over $700; trading at $721;

Breaking: link here.

Major oils:

• selling off despite WTI up significantly; IT’S ALL ABOUT THE PLUMMETING PRICE OF NATURAL GAS
• but, what else?
• short-term sector rotation: boomers finally throwing in the towel on energy?
• watching millennials surge ahead with tech?

Last three months:

Last three months:

• CVX: maybe 3%
• NVDA: maybe 50%

********************************
Reality

1999:

• tech trading at 60 - 70 x earnings
• interest rates higher than they are today

2023:

• tech trading at 30 x earnings
• interest rates lower than back in 1999

TGIF -- Wow, Talk About A Slow News Day -- December’s Inflation Even Lower Than First Reported — February 9, 2024

Locator: 46768B.

Compared to the rest of the week, it's a pretty quiet Friday. So far.

But look at this and folks wonder why the US equity market is doing so well:

• NYC office rental vacancy at 50-year low and now of great concern to the city
• NYC office rental vacancy currently at 1.4%
• a healthy rental vacancy rate in NYC is considered to be 5 - 8%
• I guess that changes plans to convert vacant office space to housing for undocumented visitors

For those who respond, "yes, but outside of tech, the US equity market is not doing all that great."

• quick: name the top five "tech" cities around the world
• quick: name the top energy producer in the world
• quick: name the top retailing country in the world
  

The southern surge:

• strategically, 30 years, the long view: the GOP is on the wrong side of history
• tactically, current politics: the DEMs are running scared

More politics: Trump going after Haley

• makes him look trivial
• reminds folks of his misogyny
• needs to attract her supporters

Reality check:

• net-zero targets

CPI revision: December's y/y revised downward, 0.2% vs previous 0.3%

• Fed given credit
• Fed doesn’t deserve all the credit

S&P 500: opens above 5,000 -- first time ever, but overall market flat today

• NVDA's market cap exceeds the market cap of the entire Chinese stock market
• wow, what a difference a few years makes
• the two biggest changes
• Mideast is no longer the economic powerhouse it once was
• Saudi Arabia: retrenching?
  
• China economy imploding
• China - Iran: at origin and terminus of China''s massive belt and road initiative

Now, to go back and post yesterday's daily activity report that was not posted last night.

A Dozen Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Weekend -- February 9, 2024

Locator: 46767B.

WTI: $76.19

Sunday, February 11, 2024: 28 for the month; 87 for the quarter, 87 for the year
40048, conf, CLR, Harms East Federal 3-33H,
40042, conf, CLR, Quale Federal 5-1H2,
39415, conf, Liberty Resources M&M W 158-93-28-33-3MBH,
39342, conf, Enerplus, Sprint 148-93-04A-09H,
38711, conf, Petro-Hunt, Terres 144-97-18A-19-3H,

Saturday, February 10, 2024: 23 for the month; 82 for the quarter, 82 for the year
40045, conf, CLR, Quale Federal 8-1H2,
40043, conf, CLR, Quale Federal 6-1H,
39416, conf, Liberty Resources M&M W 158-93-28-33-5MBH,
39414, conf, Liberty Resources M&M W 158-93-28-33-2MBH,
39413, conf, Liberty Resources M&M W 158-93-28-33-1MBH,
39344, conf, Enerplus, Pitstop 148-93-04A-09H,
39343, conf, Enerplus, Rally 148-93-04A-09H,
39114, conf, Hess, EN-Hegland-155-94-0508H-7,

Friday, February 9, 2024: 15 for the month; 74 for the quarter, 74 for the year
39752, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 5-14-18TFH,

RBN Energy: clean hydrogen rules on deliverability to posse new challenges for producers.

The Biden administration has placed some big bets on clean hydrogen, seeing it as a replacement fuel for some hard-to-abate industries and putting it at the heart of its long-term decarbonization efforts. All of these bets are backed by a brand-new tax credit. But the goal isn’t just to drive production of more hydrogen — it’s also to make hydrogen in a specific way, with measurable decreases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. That means producing hydrogen that qualifies for the tax credit is going to be a lot easier said than done. The proposed rules include a concept called deliverability — one of the “three pillars” of clean hydrogen — that adds further challenges to producers hoping to cash in on the tax credit and puts into further peril any number of potential projects. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explain how deliverability works, how it fits into the proposed rules, and the challenges it will pose for hydrogen producers and power generators alike.