Foreign Exchange Reserves -- Russia, Saudi Arabia, China -- Posted October 3, 2025

Locator: 49283SAUDI. 

Locator: 49283CHINA.

Locator: 49283RUSSIA.

Foreign exchange reserves: Russia, Saudi Arabia, China.

Russia, link here:

Saudi, link here:

China, link here, posted October 3, 2025:

Shutdown -- Saturday Will Be Day 4 -- October 3, 2025

Locator: 49282ARCHIVES. 

Shutdown: link here. The talking heads over at CNBC seem to fail to grasp that basic concept. One could add the founders included a two-party system to help insure a divide government. Look at California.

Hardball: US House leader told his 435 members to stay home next week -- WFH -- I guess -- but no more votes next week. So, it's up to the US Senate. Russell Vought in the catbird's seat. I guess no US Senate confirmations for awhile. Gums up the military machinery. Hegseth fires top US Navy chief of staff. 

The US House is scheduled to return October 14. 

Next payday for the US military, midnight October 14 /  October 15. A lot of enlisted men and women live from paycheck to paycheck.  

The El Segundo refinery fire may be a bigger deal than first thought. 

AI prompt: 

Is El Segundo the largest refinery in California?

AI reply: 

No, the Chevron El Segundo refinery is not the largest in California; the Marathon Los Angeles Refinery in Carson is California's largest, though the El Segundo refinery is often noted as the largest on the West Coast. The El Segundo refinery is Chevron's second-biggest refinery in the United States and the largest on the West Coast, according to its website. 

My reply: whatever. 

Link here. 

 And, then there's this shutdown: link here.

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A Piggy Bank

Link here. 

Must have been a slow news day. 

Global Energy -- October 3, 2025

Locator: 49281GLOBALENEGY. 

Brazil: Brazil's renewable energy faces crippling curtailment challenges. Link here. 

"Crippling curtailment" and "renewable energy" in the same headline. Oh, oh! I'm curious who the author will be ... I can guess. Rystad Energy. 

Saudi Arabia: Saudi's spending spree meets oil price reality. Link here. Julianne Geiger.

The numbers tell the story: Saudi Arabia now expects a budget deficit equal to 5.3% of GDP in 2025—nearly double its original 2.3% forecast—before narrowing to 3.3% in 2026. The deterioration comes largely from weaker oil income, Fitch said, with non-oil revenues holding up but not enough to offset the gap. The rating agency pointed to revenue shortfalls and overspending as the main culprits, noting the massive capital outlays required by megaprojects like NEOM.

Mexico: Pemex' Dos Bocas turns into Mexico's refinery nightmare. Link here. Dos Bocas refinery still facing the startup blues -- RBN Energy, link here.

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Is Natural Gas Breaking Out?

I consider SRE a "$75-stock." Before 2022 it was a "$65-stock." Paying 2% to 3%.

SRE will pays its next quarterly dividend in about two weeks, October 15, 2025. I was blown away when SRE surged to $96 this past year; we're back above $90 and no one seems to have noticed.

OKE was also up a bit today, as was Venture Global up a bit.

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Does This Feel Like A Bubble?

From today, prompt: META Louisiana football fields.

Massive site: link here.
  

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A Musical Interlude

Link here. 

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The Book Page

If I had enough space on the book shelf, this would be the next book.

 

 I would get this book for this one chapter:
 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.

Daily Activity Report -- October 3, 2025

Locator: 49280B. 

WTI: $60.88.

No daily activity report today, so far. It looks like the NDIC is establishing a new trend. The daily activity report will now become the early morning edition from the previous day. 

But, from scout ticket data, new permits:

• 42371, conf, Kraken, Charity 3-10-15-5H, Boxcar Butte, SESW 31-149-101, to be sited 448 FSL and 2574 FWL;
• 42372, loc, KODA Resources, Bock 3624-1BH, Daneville, SWSE 36-161-102, to be sited 459 FSL ad 1881 FEL;
• 42373, loc, KODA Resources, Bock 3624-2BH, Daneville, SWSE 36-161-102, to be sited 459 FSL ad 1846 FEL;

Active, producing wells: record set at 19,000.

Six new permits: posted yesterday --

• Hunt Oil has permits for six Alexandria wells in Alexandria, Sioux Trail, and Smoky Butte oil fields.

From yesterday:

Five permits renewed:

• Grayson Mill, #37037 - #37041, inclusive; permits for five Tufto wells; all remain on confidential status; Williams Couny; Cow Creek.  

Alison Ritter's Quick Connects -- October 3, 2025

Locator: 49279B. 

The headlines --

• North Dakota reaches all-time high of 19,500 operational oil wells in July -- WZFG

• What are the micro data centers are coming to North Dakota's oil patch? -- Bismarck Tribune

• US DOT awards $260K to two North Dakota agencies for pipeline safety -- Kevin Cramer

• Officials give update on Chord Energy's recent 48,000 acre Bakken acquisition -- KFYR - TV

• State utility regulators set hearing for Xcel Energy's nearly 20% rate increase proposal -- Dickinson Press

• Federal shutdown begins as Governor Armstrong promises state agency guidance soon -- Bismarck Tribune

• Armstrong presents 2025 Governor's Awards for Excellence in Public Service -- Office of the Governor

• Armstrong and Strinden discuss shared priorities with MHA Nation leaders -- Office of the Governor

• Seven finalists selected for three North Dakota Ethics Commission vacancies -- North Dakota Monitor

• North Dakotans can now transfer their mobile driver's license or State ID to their phone -- KFYR - TV

• Inaugural North Dakota workforce summit focuses on collaboration, communication -- Bismarck Tribune

• Wildfire caused by downed power lines burns 100 acres in northern McKenzie County -- Williston Herald

• Ward County taxpayers could see decrease in property tax levy under 2026 budget -- Minot Daily News

• Badlands Art Association invites public to participate in 54th annual Badlands Art Show -- Dickinson Press

• McKenzie County cuts budget after approving 7% pay raises for government employees -- KFYR - TV

• Policy change allows UND, NDSU to offer dual-credit classes for high schoolers -- North Dakota Monitor

• Lindsey Grocery in Crosby is excited after receipt of $150K grant award for rural stores -- The Journal

• North Dakota Council on the Arts awards $60,000 to expand art education around the state -- KFYR - TV

• North Dakota Community Foundation to award more than $817K in over 400 scholarships -- Williston Herald

• North Dakota Teacher of the Year wants to use platform to advocate for educators -- North Dakota Monitor

• Local fifth graders explore drone flying, goat milking and even phlebotomy at career fair -- Dickinson Press

• Supreme Court urged to intervene in Boulder climate case amid nationwide dismissals -- Energy In Depth

• Trump administration eyes looser restrictions on pollution and public lands to boost coal -- The Hill

• Trump admin nixes $36B in transportation and green energy projects in NYC, blue states -- Just The News

• BLM quarterly lease sales across Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi and Utah net $22.8 million -- E&E News

• Climate crusaders are trying new tactics but running out of options in the US -- The Empowerment Alliance

• Russia expects to sell natural gas to China at much lower prices than to Europe and Turkey -- Oil Price

• Democrats toy with 'all of the above' on energy while Republicans embrace fossil fuels -- E&E News

• Big Tech's AI ambitions are straining the US power grid. Natural gas might be its answer. -- Yahoo Finance

• Trump will keep oil and gas permitting moving unhindered, despite government shutdown -- Oil Price

• Proposed AI demand in Wyoming may soon use more electricity than state's human residents -- Ars Technica

• U.S. Department of Energy cancels $7.6B in funding for previously approved energy projects -- Oil Price

• At climate week in New York City, world leaders reverse their course on natural gas -- EID Climate

• Funding for green groups soared after the 2009 EPA endangerment finding, nonprofit finds -- Just The News

Friday -- October 3, 2025

Locator: 49278ARCHIVES. 

Link here. 

Cramer's First Hour; The Eisen Hour -- October 13, 2025

Locator: 49278INV. 

Cramer: Apple is the best company ever. Not talking about investing but rather company's culture and customer satisfaction. I agree. 

My younger daughter, at the time, age ten years old or thereabouts, would often take our prayer rug to the Apple Store at the South Coast Plaza and kneel at the door before the Apple Store would open. 

South Coast Plaza: located in Costa Mesa, this is the largest shopping mall in California and a renowned international destination for luxury shopping, fine dining, and theater.

Market: this is simply incredible. The market is climbing the wall of worry, and it's incredible to watch.  

Others:

• MPC up nicely.
• right now, US refiner production could be interesting here
• California issues 
• now, Enbridge 5 Pipeline -- administrative judge may decide case soon 
• CAT: up another $3.77; 

Tech today, looks good, pre-market and the opening:

• Broadcom (AVGO: up $3.71, up 1.01% in premarket trading. At open: 
• INTC: up about 1.6% in premarket trading. Now trading at $37.30. At open! Wow! Up almost a dollar per share and now trading near $38. "Shorts" and bears are getting run over. Intel's next quarterly earnings report is October 30, 2025.
• MU:  up $1.46; up about 0.7%.
• GLW: at open -- down slightly but essentially flat. Clearly an opportunity. Now, seconds later, up over 1.1%.
• LUMN: a speculative play associated with GLW. I would have to buy a lot of LUMN to move the needle in my portfolio and violates at least two of my investment rules. 
• AAPL: quick! What's AAPL's 52-week closing high? Where is AAPL trading now? 52-week high: $260.10. AAPL just went over $258 in early morning trading. I would assume some chartist would shout "breakout" about right now. 

**************************
The AI Page

Using a chatbot to plan a cross-country, a west coast vacation, etc.

One way I do this:

• pick a location, let's say St George, Utah
• ask for best time to be there, not high season
• specify number of days for total trip
• provide the chatbot your departure city
• specify general location, not specific city or neighborhood
• specify whether it's
• a cross-country trip, automobile only;
• a fly-drive 
• specify whether:
• one adult only;
• a couple's trip;
• a family trip with ages of children provide
• specify:
• budget;
• moderately priced;
• no expense caps 

It's amazing what a chatbot can do for you in less time than it takes to take a sip of coffee. 

Are there even any travel agents any more?

If I was a young student looking to become the nation's best hotelier, as an intern I would use a chatbot to assist a traveler at the time of registration by using AI to provide a two-page synopsis of events in the local area while staying in the local area. The process:

• while checking in the traveler, hold a conversation with the traveler, asking the same questions that are always asked;
• sprinkle the conversation with some open-ended questions and/or suggestions;
• AI (think Siri) is listening in;
• as the traveler is signing the agreement, hit the send button, sending the document to the traveler's cell phone. 

The two-page synopsis, everything from restaurants to shows to physical activities.

Years ago I studied a Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (link here) course. It was amazing how much it helped me when interacting with people I have / had known for a very short period of time. AI could be taught to do that and provide a more tailored two-page response to a traveler in the situation described above.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.

TGIF -- October 3, 2025

Locator: 49277B. 

Natural gas turbines: link here. 

Local, school district update: local officials lower tax rate for GCISD, for school year, 2025 - 2026. Link here.

The new tax rate is roughly 5 cents lower than the prior year, at $0.8686 per $100 valuation. The new tax rate will lower property taxes for GCISD homeowners by about $246 a year for a home valued at $450,000, according to a presentation from GCISD Chief Financial Officer David Johnson. GCISD Executive Communications Director Nicole Lyons added that GCISD residents will collectively save roughly $11 million over one year under the new rate. The previous tax rate, adopted in November 2024, was $0.9233 per $100 valuation, according to district documents. 

Earlier this week: severe funding shortage in our school district, GCISD, Grapevine - Colleyville, Texas, north DFW; the enrollment began in 2019, or maybe better said, after 2020. 

And that's the bigger story: what happened? I doubt the population has decreased in Grapevine - Colleyville over the past few years. So, what happened. It would be interesting to see the breakdown of students by ethnicity. Was the school board tone deaf? Blame it on MAGA / Trump? Link here. Enrollment has declined by 1,500 students since fall of 2019; resulted in a loss of over $10 million in revenue. Two elementary schools fell below 60% of utilization; four fell below 75% of utilization. How many schools in this district? Eleven. Four of eleven below 75% utilization. Unsustainable. High schools in same district between 2019 and 2024? A slight decrease but not remarkable. Yet.

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $60.67.

New wells reporting this next week. Link here.

RBN Energy: link here.

  

Tech -- October 3, 2025

Locator: 49276INV. 

This story got a lot of play over the past day or so. I don't invest in INTC; I have no plans to start a position in INTC: INTC stock is up 50% in the past month. Even at 50%, I would have to buy a lot of INTC to move the needle of my investment portfolio and it violates one of several of my rules of investing.

One of the magnificent seven in which I invest, however, is Micron (MU). That's a long story and I doubt anyone would care but I will argue that Charlie Munger, despite all his reading, missed this one. I caught Micron simply by reading. I had not planned to invest in Micron. But I started a position a year or so ago and have consistently added to it. I couldn't sleep tonight so just surfing the net and remembered Micron. Curious what it was doing: 55% in the past month. Whoo-hoo!

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.

X-Files -- Midnight -- October 3, 2025

Locator: 49275ARCHIVES. 

Third day of the shutdown. 

Another day I won't be going to the Grand Canyon National Park or Cape Cod National Seashore or The Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Unit.

And so, we move on.

Vanderbilt University, football team: earned a story in The WSJ. Link here. 

England, part of Great Britain / the United Kingdom: maybe two great universities -- Oxford and Cambridge. The US? Too many to count. Even in one state. We are so fortunate in this country. Much could be said. Trump wants to cap foreign students at 15%. Holy mackerel! I had no idea. 

Google, Arkansas, $4 billion, large data center in West Memphis. Quick, where is Elon Musk building his super computers. Yeah, Memphis, Tennessee. Link here to The Wall Street Journal. 

Shutdown: one-two punch -- okay -- one-two-three punch -- Trump -- Christopher Wright -- Doug Burgum. That trio will have a major impact on the government, on energy policy. There will be a vote tomorrow, then everyone heads home, back sometime next week. It's clear that Trump has no reason to negotiate. I sure hope he doesn't go wobbly. Hopefully Susie Wiles keeps Schumer / Jeffries off the president's calendar. 

Shutdown: Energy Dept axes billions for green projects in blue states.  

Investing: I'm not been listening to as much CNBC as usual the last two days. Most of the CNBC folks seem not to realize what's going in -- I've yet to hear anyone refer to this as the Fourth Industrial Revolution on CNBC. 

Investing: all week long -- actually for weeks / months now -- CNBC talking heads ask "how do we value these tech companies"? So, now Buffett' says he plans to acquire Occidental's petrochemicals unit and no one asked how it was valued. Simply a price on which Warren Buffett and Vicki Hollub agreed. Investors for neither BRK nor OXY were happy about this proposed deal. OXY closed down 7.3% today after the announcement was made. It's a pretty scary chart. 

Investing: futures tonight -- all major indices --- green! And not by a trivial amount.  

Lots of music tonight. 

Federal troops to Portland: I was listening to NPR tonight on the way from soccer practice for Sophia. The far liberal interviewer was interviewing a criminologist with regard to federal troops in Portland. The interview was not going the way the interviewer had hoped. Shortest NPR interview ever. 

Another bizarre story: link here. 

Vaccinations: I guess I'll be getting my Covid-19 and seasonal influenza vaccinations this weekend. I can't remember but I think I get them simultaneously now, one in each arm. I don't recommend that; if one has a systemic reaction you won't know which vaccine is the culprit. But I've kind lost any interest in discussing the issue.  

 ***************************
Focus On Investing

I completely missed this until I saw cash in my investment account which took me by surprise. Link here.

Two or three days ago. Wow. 

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A Musical Interlude

A gazillion songs from which to choose. I chose this one. My wife would not understand. LOL.

Link here.