Monday, December 28, 2015

No New Permits -- December 28, 2015; Whiting Reports A Nice Well; Another DUC

Other than a previously posted IP for a Whiting well coming off confidential list, nothing to report. All other wells went to DUC status, as previously reported.

And most interesting, not one "producing well" reported as completed.

No runs, no hits, no errors.

Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:
  • 29223, 1,425, Whiting, P Jackman 156-100-2-18-19-15H3, East Fork, Three Forks 1st bench, a KOG permit; transferred to Whiting on/about August 21, 2014; momentarily drilled in TF3, very low background gas throughout the lateral, sNovember 3, 2014; drilling completed January 27, 2015; I did not see any indication this well went to SI/NC status; t7/15; cum 44K 10/15;
  • 29449, SI/NC, WPX, Emma Owner 23-14HW, Spotted Horn, no production data;

29223, see above, Whiting, P Jackman 156-100-2-18-19-15H3, East Fork:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

The Apple Page

Apple devices accounted for just under half of new mobile device activations during the holiday season. 49.1 percent of all new devices activated were Apple devices, and while that number is slightly down from last year's 51.3 percent, Apple still dominated all other mobile device companies.

Samsung devices, for example, were responsible for 19.8 percent of all device activations, while Nokia devices made up 2 percent and Xiaomi devices made up 1.5 percent of all device activations.
Global Warming 

Record cold temperatures in Los Angeles.
We had record cold yesterday and we're looking at possible rain tonight.

The National Weather Service said Sunday's low temperature of 36 degrees at USC tied the station's all-time record low, set in 1916.
And it's much colder than usual for this time of the here here in northern Texas.

November, 2015, CO2Now, dynamic link: 400.16 ppm. 

Harold Hamm On Superior US Crude Oil, Exports, And Prices -- December 28, 2015

On December 22, 2015, it was noted that WTI reached parity with Brent oil. A few days later, FuelFix had this to say:
A prominent Oklahoma oilman says the high quality of U.S.-produced oil is reflected in its rising price on international markets.

U.S. oil is trading higher than the international standard for the first time since 2010 after President Barack Obama signed a measure last week lifting the nation’s four-decade ban on oil exports, the Oklahoman reported Friday.

Domestic oil gained 60 cents to $38.10 a barrel on Thursday while oil produced elsewhere added 53 cents to close at $37.89.

Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources, says it’s a sign that the world sees domestic light, low-sulfur oil as superior to international oil, much of which is denser and higher in sulfur.

“Now the premium quality of U.S. light sweet crude is being recognized globally and rewarded by the market,” said Hamm, chairman of the Domestic Energy Producers Alliance.

Most refineries in Europe and Asia are designed to handle primarily light sweet crude like that produced in the United States. Light sweet historically has traded at a premium to heavy sour blends.

But a rapid increase in domestic production over the past decade helped flip the prices, setting domestic prices below the international rate.
Perhaps Vitol knows something US analysts don't know, and perhaps a $4-WTI-premium is not required to increase US crude oil exports.

Filloon On Bakken Opportunties

At SeekingAlpha.

North Dakota Oil And Gas Permits -- 2015 -- December 28, 2015

It's hard to believe but the last (and maybe the only) time I posted "permit stats" in 2015 was at the end of January, 2015.

At that time, based on barely a month of data:

Projections for number of permits at the end of the calendar year based on permits of that same calendar year as of January 29th:
  • 2015: 3,033
  • 2014: 3,184
  • 2013: 2,744
  • 2012: 2,102
The actual number of permits issued for the full calendar year:
  • 2015: ~ 2,050
  • 2014: 3,012
  • 2013: 2,671
  • 2012: 2,522
As of last week, the NDIC issued 2,051 oil and gas permits for 2015. This is from my data base; it may vary a bit from the official NDIC figures.

At that rate, with only a few days left to go, the final tally would be 2,068 new oil and gas permits in 2015, well off the mark from previous years.

The projection for calendar years and 2013 and 2014 came in pretty close.

Disclaimer and a reminder: this is from my data base. I often make horrendous errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

There must have been a mini-surge in permits in late 2012 to beat the projection by a fairly good margin.

But this year was a real bust. Based on January, 2015, data, the projections were for over 3,000 permits. In fact, we barely got to 2,000 and many of those were eventually cancelled. And despite that North Dakota's production remained very, very robust.

And back in 2013 and 2014 we were watching upwards of 200 active rigs drilling in the state. At the end of this year, less than 65.

Mark Perry's Energy Graphs And His Saturday Afternoon Links -- As Good As Always -- December 28, 2015

Mark Perry's Saturday afternoon links are priceless. Enjoy. I had forgotten all about the other holidays this past week; I'm glad I was reminded.

This link just appeared on the Drudge Report:  Oil slump weighing on housing markets in Texas, North Dakota. If hit by a paywall, simply google the headline as posted. It's pretty much a non-story for North Dakota; it must have been a slow news day. I can't speak for the Texas housing market. Things seem high here.

The Future Of The Brent / WTI Spread, RBN Energy -- December 28, 2015

Active rigs:

Active Rigs62173187186196

RBN Energy: the future of the Brent / WTI spread.

For the archives: splitters may not be all that successful in the US in light of crude oil exports now being allowed. 

Putin blames Saudi Arabia for upheaval in the oil market: link here [I noticed I forgot to include the link at the time I posted this; I can't find the link but this one is close enough]. Actually, if one looks at the data, a) Saudi has not increased production all that much, if any; b) OPEC has exceeded quotas for the past 18 years (except on two very, very minor occasions); and, c) Saudi has increased domestic requirements for including two new refineries. I'm not siding with the Saudis on this, I'm just saying that Saudi would have had to cut back on a significant amount of production to counter all the new oil coming on the market. By the way, it's my understanding that trying to shut in an oil field is bad, bad news for the oil field. See the note regarding Iran at this post. I'm beginning to wonder if Saudi might be having more problems with its aging fields than is being reported.

But back to Putin: compared to the oil production by the US in the last few years, Saudi's production has remained remarkably steady (yes, I see the blip at the far right) but the Saudis are probably focused on US production when "everyone else" (including Putin) is focused on Saudi Arabia. 

In addition, the suggestion that Saudi Arabia changed course by permitting OPEC members to produce all they could does not hold up: OPEC has been exceeding quotas since 1998:

And the excess is not trivial. Some cherry-picked examples. First column, year; second column, quota; third column, excess (bopd):
  • 1998: 24.5, 27.5 (delta, 3 million bopd)
  • 2002: 22, 27 (delta, 5 million bopd)
  • 2004: 26, 30.5 (delta, 4.5 million bopd)
  • 2012: 25, 30 (delta, 5 million bopd)
  • 2015: 29, 32 (delta, 3 million bopd)
And OPEC's actual production is very, very unpredictable, unreliable: think recent force majeure in Nigeria.

I'm not an apologist for Saudi Arabia; I'm just trying to sort these things out.

Humor: there's an article in today's New York Times suggesting TSA could start denying driver's licenses from states that don't comply with their requirements demanded by a 10-year-old law. Google it if interested, but it ain't gonna happen. Why? It would bankrupt the US airline industry. Here are the states not in compliance but given a waiver because the US government doesn't want the airline industry to fold:
If you’re from Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Guam, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, N. Marianas, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Virgin Islands, and Washington, be aware your state driver’s license is permitted only because of an extension that will eventually time-out.
Some states, like Pennsylvania, with a compliance extension, will certainly not have a Real ID- compliant driver’s license by the time the extension expires. In 2012, Governor Tom Corbett signed a Pennsylvania law rejecting compliance with the Real ID law. Alaska, Arizona, and Idaho have passed similar laws.
But actually that's not all of the states. Here are a few more, in even more dire straits:
Right now, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, and the territory of American Samoa driver’s licenses aren’t in compliance with the Real ID law according to DHS. 
(New York has a compliant “enhanced” driver’s license for $30 more than their standard license.) If DHS would require Real ID compliant driver’s licenses to fly today, residents of those states and American Samoa would have to provide an alternate photo ID or be denied boarding.
The Apple Page
Add Hyundai's Sonata To The Apple CarPlay List

Macrumors is reporting:
Hyundai has confirmed that CarPlay will launch in the 2016 Sonata in the first quarter of next year, per the Detroit Free Press. The carmaker will reportedly sell an SD card with new software to get the system for an undisclosed price.
I sort of follow the CarPlay List here.

I see that Apple has copyrights for four more Beats radio stations: B2, B3, B4, and B5. These four are new. Beats 1 has been active for some time. I've never listened to Beats 1, thinking it might be hard to access. Turns out that it's incredibly easy to reach. Two clicks and a password. I don't like the current "live" radio show but I'm sure I'm in the minority. Over time, my hunch is that Beats will be a huge competitor to something like Sirius.