Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Just Before The Open, WTI In Free Fall? February 4, 2025

Locator: 48472WTI.

WTI: $71.74. Down another $1.42; down another 1.94%.

Remember, the tariffs on China are still in effect and will be increased.

This did not age well, and it was posted yesterday:

Natural gas? Down a whopping 3.7%. Down over 12 cents and now trading at $3.228, pre-market.

Bakken Debt -- February 4, 2025

Locator: 48471B.

Tag: reservation tax MHA  allotees "fee holders" allotments "tribal lands"

From Geoff Simon last week:

Definitions, also from Geoff Simon:

Again, Shay Boloor -- Perhaps My Favorite On "X" Right Now -- February 4, 2025

Locator: 48470INV.

Focus on dividends: since 2022, ASML has increased its dividend 37; another increase was just announced. From $1.585512. to $1.919304, announced, 1/29/25; payable, 5/6/25. 

Focus on dividends: CMCSA increases its dividends from 31 cents to 33 cents per share.

The crash: maps and photos -- The NYT link here. Yesterday, this was still being debated; has the "black box" ended that debate?

The regional jet and the helicopter collided between 300 feet and 350 feet above the ground over the river, according to the investigators who recovered information from the flight data recorders. That places the helicopter more than 100 feet above the height that it was authorized to fly in its particular route near Reagan.
What "no one" is talking about is the number of hours the PIC had. In fact, The NYT is now suggesting night vision goggles were the culprit -- thus already setting the stage to ignore the elephant in the room. From the article:
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Thursday that the helicopter was conducting “a required annual night evaluation” flight and was being flown by “a fairly experienced crew” operating with night-vision goggles.

One wonders how a "fairly experienced crew" broke a basic rule -- flying above 200 feet in this corridor. That had nothing to do with NVG. Also, how did two "fairly experienced crew[members" not pay attention to an "imminent collision warning."
Was ATC aware that the helicopter was flying too high? If not, how was that missed?

Climate change? From The NYT this morning (and reported elsewhere):

The Trump administration has warned more than 1,100 E.P.A. employees who work on climate change and other programs that it may fire them.

Taking a page from the president's playbook: my hunch -- Trump will take a serious look at this -- especially as a transition / stopgap measure until Gitmo is up and running, and especially if there's any more push back regarding his plan to place ankle monitors on criminals when there is a lack of prison space to hold them.

AMZN, AAPL, and NVDA: link here.

Palantir AIP. Keep this on your radar scope.

Yesterday, I took advantage of the "dip" and added more technology to my portfolio. Actually, I didn't really take advantage of the "dip" -- I remain fully invested at all times, so when I had enough cash built up to make a meaningful investment, I added more technology to my portfolio. It should be noted that I did not add to my position in any of those three -- AMZN, AAPL, or NVDA -- but it was one of the Mag 7. In hindsight, AMZN might have been the better choice. Whatever. AMZN is next -- next time I add to my technology positions it's likely AMZN will be the one. We'll see.

Once upon a time this would have sounded bizarre: not any more. LOL. Link here. I don't follow Chris so I'm not sure how this ended up on my twitter feed:

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.   

Taco Tuesday -- That's About All I Can At This Moment -- February 4, 2025

Locator: 48469B.

AI art: link here. Maybe this will be important, but I doubt it.

Texas: relocation update. I think a reader sent me a screenshot taken from this article some days ago. The conclusion reached below may be art of the answer, but certainly oversimplified. The lack of state income taxes in Texas may have had something to do with. Also, the political climate in California vs that of Texas.

The market: it appears the US stock market has simply reset to a "new normal." We'll see. 

VisualCapitalist: a new link. I don't think it's going to be all that great as far as a new link goes but maybe once in awhile something entertaining will pop up.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.97. So much for tariffs / trade war driving up the price of oil. Link here. This certainly didn't age very well -- the story is all of one day old.

New wells:

  • Thursday, February 6, 2025: 7 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 53 for the year, 
    • 40456, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living TR-156-98-2017H-4,
    • 39390, conf, CLR, Goodson 2-21H,
  • Wednesday, February 5, 2025: 5 for the month, 51 for the quarter, 51 for the year,
    • None.
  • Tuesday, February 4, 2025: 5 for the month, 51 for the quarter, 51 for the year,
    • 39389, conf, CLR, Dalin 2-16H,

RBN Energy: despite challenges, global shipping eyes shift to lower-carbon bunker fuel.  

After successfully reducing emissions of pollutants like sulfur and nitrogen, the global shipping industry now is focused on ratcheting down — and eventually eliminating — its emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs). It’s no easy task. Crude-oil-based bunker like low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gas oil (MGO) are readily available, relatively inexpensive, and pack a lot of energy into each gallon. But GHG-reduction goals are in place, both globally and in the European Union (EU), and shipping companies are taking steps to meet them, initially with more LNG-fueled vessels and later with ships powered by clean methanol, clean ammonia and biofuels. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the shift in bunker fuel consumption since IMO 2020 was implemented five years ago and the efforts to transition to even cleaner shipping fuels through the late 2020s and beyond.

Suriname Sets Its Sights On Becoming Major Oil Supplier With Offshore Boost -- RBN Energy -- February 4, 2025

Locator: 48468SURINAME.

Re-posting:

RBN Energy: today, more recent -- Suriname sets its site on becoming major oil supplier with offshore boost. Archived.

As crude oil production surges off the coast of Guyana, its eastern neighbor, Suriname, has set off on its own mission to become a global oil supplier. With some onshore production active for decades, the tiny South American nation now has its sights set on developing its vast offshore reserves. While there have been some setbacks, its international partners are getting their plans back on track. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a deep dive into what’s ahead for Suriname. 

We previously highlighted how Guyana has been a rising star (see Break My Stride) in the global crude market, even if it’s only a recent entrant. Guyana now has three crude grades to offer markets (see My Guy) since its first major oil discovery just a decade ago. The offshore Stabroek block’s only oil-producing area (yellow-shaded area in Figure 1 below) is churning out more than 650 Mb/d of oil from three projects in the reserve-rich Guyana-Suriname Basin (area within dashed-green line). Owners of these assets want to roughly double that volume by the end of 2027 with three more projects. It’s worth noting that in 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the underexplored areas of the Suriname-Guyana Basin held 13.6 billion barrels of oil and 32 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas. But Guyana isn’t the only country with plans to develop those reserves.

The Guyana-Suriname Basin and the Stabroek Block

Figure 1. The Guyana-Suriname Basin and the Stabroek Block. Source: RBN

The Guyana-Suriname Basin stretches across three countries on the Atlantic coast of South America: Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. The oil-rich formation has an onshore segment but is predominantly an offshore play. Suriname has been extracting minimal amounts of crude oil from the onshore basin since the 1980s but the former Dutch colony wants to raise its profile as a petroleum supplier with its offshore oil bonanza, mirroring its neighbor’s success. (Suriname’s maritime border indicated by dashed-pink line in Figure 1.)

Suriname’s crude production predates the E&P activities of neighboring Guyana by more than three decades. According to state-owned Staatsolie, which was created in 1980, authorities struck oil in 1965 while trying to drill for water in a schoolyard in the town of Calcutta (yes, it was named after the city in eastern India, now known as Kolkata). The town is in the Saramacca district, west of Suriname’s capital, Paramaribo. But commercial oil production only began 17 years later, in 1982. Supplies were extracted from the Tambaredjo field and the oil grade, Saramacca, was named after the district, with flows starting at 200 b/d. Oil from the field was initially sent on the Saramacca River by barge to Staatsolie’s terminal in Tout Lui Faut, south of the country’s capital. Then, a pipeline was laid to connect the producing area with the terminal.