Sunday, July 31, 2011

Some Housekeeping -- Updating Some Wells -- Interesting For Newbies -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Periodically I go back and update wells that I have been following. Tonight I looked at  "Wells to Watch, Part I." I only got about halfway through but found enough to put up an interesting stand-alone post.

I think newbies will get a kick out of this.

1. This was the first well I saw that needed updating:
I have no idea what this was all about, but my data base shows the original permit was held by Slawson but later acquired by EOG. I don't know the details.

It was spud on 5/30/10. It's IP was 2,195.

It has produced 289,091 bbls of oil through June, 2011. That's about 290K in one year. At $50/bbl --> $14.5 million; and the well is still producing 12,000 bbls / month (that's $600,000 / month at $50/bbl). Remember, Bakken wells are expected to produce for 25 - 35 years. "Legacy" wells in North Dakota have been known to produce for 50 years.

18504, 2,195, EOG, Van Hook 7-23H, Van Hook, Bakken (previously a Slawson permit)
2. Then I came across a few Dakota-3 wells that were acquired from Zenergy in the very productive Van Hook field:
  • 18735, 1,936, Dakota-3/Zenergy, Dakota-3 State of ND 10-3H
  • 18737, 1,034, Dakota-3/Zenergy, Dakota-3 Mason 2-11H,
  • 18754, 2,756, Dakota-3/Zenergy, Van Hook, Dakota-3 Olson 1-12H, 54K in 5 months
  • Dakota-3 is a subsidiary of WMB, and as noted before, bought 7% of the mineral rights in the reservation
3. But Dakota-3 wasn't the only one with great wells in the Van Hook. Slawson has some great Van Hook wells, as well. Slawson is privately held:
  • 18749, 502, Slawson, Osprey Federal 1-26-35-30H, 75K in 8 months
  • 18750, 439, Slawson, permit 24 Feb 10, Shad Rap Federal 1-2-3H, (1,546 - 24-hour flowback); 73K in 8 months
  • 18924, 1,361, Slawson, Van Hook, Vixen Federal 1-19-30H, 60K in 4 months
  • 19010, 847, Slawson, Van Hook, Armada Federal 1-14-13H, 95K in 6 months
 4. Likewise, EOG has some great wells in the Van Hook:

  • 18825, 951, EOG, Van Hook 8-36H, 200K in less than a year
  • 18828, 1,066, EOG, Van Hook, Liberty LR 16-36H, 85K in 5 months
  • 19018, 927, EOG, Van Hook, Van Hook 15-15H, 139K in 9 months
5. KOG had a nice well in its productive Moccasin Creek field
  • 18656, 2,035, KOG, Moccasin Creek 13-34-28H, 144K in 10 months
6. And then look at this. Three completed WLL wells in one section (1280-acre spacing, however) in their very prolific Sanish, and a fourth well is nearing completion. The results of three wells and noting the fourth well:
  • 18530, 2,686, Whiting, section 27, Jorgensen 12-27H; 233K in first first year
  • 17612, 4,761, Whiting, Maki - 11-27H, section 27-- record IP ; 423K in first 14 months (at $50/bbl = $21 million in first year)
  • 19512, 1,959, Whiting, Oja 14-27XH, Sanish, section 27, flowing, but off-line, pump being put on?
  • 20358, almost complete, Whiting, Ray 12-27TFH, Sanish, section 27
  • For newbies: remember, these wells are expected to produce oil for 25 - 35 years. 
7. Not all Bakken wells are this outstanding but there are very few dry wells in the Bakken, and even those wells with smaller IPs are paying back their investment in two to three years according to many corporate presentations -- but even if they are being a bit optimistic, I can't believe any Bakken well won't pay for itself in five years; Bakken wells are expected to produce 25 - 35 years. 

    For My Own Use To Follow-Up Later: MRO To Re-Frack 18 Bakken Wells in 2011 -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

    Wells Added To The List Since Original Post
    Wells Reported in 2Q11

    • 16811, 77 from the first "failed" frack of just one stage, 100K lbs, December, 2010; (refracked about a year later, the sundry form received December 19, 2011, showed an IP of 1,017 bbls; 20 stages; 2.4 million lbs);  MRO, T Kupper USA 34-11H, Chimney Butte, Bakken, 20 frack stages; 2.4 million lbs; t4/11; cum 109K 5/15 (interesting production profile); looks like it was taken off-line in January, 2015, and then had a tank leak (human error); very small, April, 2015:

    Starting With Wells Reported in 1Q11 

    • 19375, IA/308, MRO, Gertrude Tuhy 34-24H, Bailey, Bakken, 14 stages; 2 million lbs; t3/11; cum 38K 10/14; last production of any note 1/14. Update, July 12, 2015: is something going on with this well? After more than a year without any activity, in May, 2015, this well produced 1,636 bbls over 27 days. Then off-line again as of 10/15. [Update, 3/17: I see this well is now AB.]
    • 16764, 473, MRO, Knudsvig 34-7H, Bailey, Bakken, 18 stages; 2.2 million lbs; t12/10; cum 220K 8/16;

    • 19299, 608, MRO, Luther USA 31-16H, Reunion Bay, Bakken, 20 stages; 2.7 million lbs; t3/11; cum 386K 3/17;

    • 19284, 1,130, MRO, Edward Darwin 14-35H, Murphy Creek, Bakken, 20 stages; 3.4 million lbs; t7/11; cum 151K 3/17;

    December 18, 2011: went through the list below; looks like six wells have been re-worked/re-fracked

    Original Post

    Back on October 25, 2009 -- feels like "ages ago" -- I posted:
    Energy production in North Dakota can be thought of as a series of three-legged stools:
    Energy: oil, natural gas, and coal.
    Technology: hz drilling, multi-stage fracking, re-frac.
    Formations: Bakken, Three Forks Sanish, Lodgepole.
    Brian sent me a nice note today reminding me that that at the 2011 Howard Weil Energy Conference, Marathon Oil (in slide 73 of 95 slides) said they planned to re-frack 18 wells in the Bakken in 2011. 

    I don't know what 18 wells MRO selected, but I will put put a few wells on my list to follow-up to see if production has changed six months from now. This is done for my own benefit, so I don't forget.

    I have selected about 25 wells, based on information from various sources and for various reasons; again, this is just for my own benefit; I will tag these "follow-up and look at them six months from now, just simply for the fun of it. Don't try to make sense of the list:
    • 16758 - 30 -1559; summer of 2012?
    • 17140 - 30 - 1290; Dec 11:  production at 1,607, but never taken off-line
    • 17693 - 30 - 1368; summer of 2013? re-worked late 2014/early 2015 -- significant jump in May, 2015
    • 17876 - 30 - 1196; Dec 11: no evidence of any refracking; update, November, 2017, it looks like it was re-fracked;
    • 17753 - 30 - 4504; Dec 11; looks like it was re-fracked/re-worked July 11; re-worked/re-fracked summer, 2014
    • 17844 - 28 - 3612; Dec 11; looks like it was re-fracked/re-worked May 11
    • 17817 - 30 - 1733; Dec 11; no evidence of any refracking
    • 17999 - 30 - 1218; Dec 11; no evidence of any refracking
    • 17971 - 31 - 1305; Dec 11; definitely refracked or re-worked
    • 17865 - 30 - 1026; Dec 11: off-line now; being re-worked? -- yes, huge jump, from 1,000 bbls/month to 7,000 bbls/month
    • 17315 -  30 - 1915; Dec 11: no evidence any refracking
    • 18486 - 30 - 1251; Dec 11: no evidence any refracking
    • 17883 - 23 - 1523; Dec 11: no evidence any refracking
    • 17375 -30 - 1983; Dec 11: no evidence any refracking; update, re-fracked, January, 2015;
    • 18681 - 23 - 2182 (previous month: 30 - 760); Dec 11: strange production profile; re-fraced 12/14 according to FracFocus;
    • 17966 - 23 - 1627; Dec 14: probably re-fracked/reworked May/June 14
    • 17712 - 24 - 1226; Dec 11: probably refracked/reworked in June 11
    • 17713 - 30 - 1777; Dec 11: probably refracked/reworked July/Aug 11
    • 16868 - 30 - 1466; Dec 11: no evidence
    • 17171 - 29 - 1677; Dec 11: no evidence; completion -- OH 556,220 lbs sand
    • 16925 - 30 - 1452; Dec 11: no evidence; completion -- OH 561,000 lbs sand
    • 17164 - 30 - 1358; Dec 11: no evidence; completion -- OH 543,900 lbs sand; off-line as of 10/16 (IA)
    • 17216 - 30 - 983; summer of 2012? If so, not a great result; a sundry form in 2011 says MRO planned to re-frac;
    • 17528 - 30 - 1134; Dec 11: no evidence; completion -- OH 552,260 lbs sand
    • 17578 - 30 - 1093; Dec 11: no evidence; off-line as of 9/16 (IA)
    • 17698 - 30 - 1013; Dec 11: no evidence
    • 17049 - 30 - 1648; Dec 14: perhaps some re-working in summer 2014; off-line as of 2/17;
    • 16923 - 30 - 1229; Dec 14: some re-working spring of 2013;

    A Recommendaton to See "BUCK" -- A Movie Now In General Release -- Not A Bakken Story

    Recommending movies has absolutely nothing to do with the Bakken (in general; some exceptions).

    But in this case, I felt I would be remiss in not saying something.

    I would assume that many readers who live in the Bakken area, who come from the Bakken area, who are interested in more than just oil when it comes to this part of the world, have some of the same interests that I have.

    Having said that, it then might make sense why I am posting this.

    I saw Buck last night. No one recommended it to me. I stumbled across it looking at what was playing in San Antonio's premier theater showing independent movies -- if that's how it is said. I saw Buck and it obviously and immediately attracted my attention.

    I went to it last night. It is a documentary on the cowboy -- and he's the real deal -- who advised Robert Redford while filming The Horse Whisperer.

    Because it's a documentary, it won't appeal to a lot of folks. The action is subtle, but the story is sublime. I get emotional easily, so it wasn't a surprise that I teared up during the movie, but what was surprising was to the extent I teared up, and it occurred during scenes that were funny, poignant, and very, very sad, all at the same time. I don't ever recall that combined feeling in other documentaries. It's my experience that feelings generally come one at a time, but not at all once.

    The "cameo" in the movie with Robert Redford was excellent; I wish there had been a bit more of him, but perhaps there were concerns it would take a bit away from the subject of the documentary.

    There will be one very difficult scene in the movie for horse lovers, but I credit the director for not cutting it.

    Unrelated to that scene, I will be forever haunted, in a good way, by the deputy sheriff in the documentary.

    I think there is a surprise every three minutes in that film.

    The director of this outstanding film was a woman, and I immediately thought of Sofia Coppola and Lost in Translation. Although Buck is a documentary, and the other is a "movie," there are similarities.

    Once of the great "things" I have enjoyed about the United States is how each region is so different, and how one can really enjoy each region. Across the northern tier where I have spent a lot of time, one can feel the culture change as one goes west from Minnesota across North Dakota to Montana. Even eastern North Dakota is separable from western North Dakota.

    I grew up in Wililston, eighteen miles from the Montana - North Dakota state line. There was nothing at the state line on Highway 2 except the "State Line Club" on the Montana side. But yet, every time I cross the Montana state line (as we called it; never referring to it as the Montana - North Dakota state line, or the North Dakota state line) I felt like was crossing into a place, as my nephew says, "far away in place and time."

    Those of you who have grown up in western North Dakota, probably more specifically west of the Missouri, and those of you who have grown up in eastern Montana, can immediately identify with "Buck."

    When he speaks, he speaks like a poet. One can hear his cowboy poetry and his cowboy wisdom.

    My best childhood friend would love this film. I hope you get a chance to see it. 

    Wow, Wow, and Wow! The New York Times Is Trying to Walk Back the Shoddy "Reporting" They Did On Natural Gas -- Op-Ed Comes Out Day After CHK Conference Call -- CHK Confirmed Game Changer in Ohio

    Link here.

    The link is to a long op-ed piece in The New York Times to which the "public editor," Arthur S. Brisbane, takes responsibility. The op-ed piece appears to be reacting to the backlash generated by the shoddy "reporting" in the New York Times about the hoax, scam, or Ponzi scheme the newspaper described in its portrayal of the US natural gas industry as another "Enron."

    I scanned through the Brisbane op-ed piece very, very quickly, and have little appetite to read it again, so I may be misreading it. But it certainly sounds as if The New York Times realized how shoddy their "reporting" was on this story, and appears to be trying to "walk back" the story as they say. [See first comment below: some will argue that the "reporting" was typical "spin" but in this case the "spin" was so bad, everyone held it up to ridicule.]

    I find the timing of Brisbane's op-ed piece very, very interesting. I doubt an op-ed piece like this is thought about, written, edited, and published overnight. The Times, no doubt, has been trying to figure out how and when to deal with that shoddy piece of reporting. I'm sure The Times would deny it, but to connect the timing of the op-ed piece to Chesapeake's conference call one day earlier (in which the CEO confirmed a huge shale oil and gas find in the Utica [Ohio] seems to be a no-brainer).

    The CHK conference call, confirming a game-changer in US energy, was aired live July 28, 2011; The Times op-ed piece is dated July 30, 2011, and is now making the rounds.

    I was alerted to it by Dave to whom I owe much gratitude.

    [On July 29, 2011, after hearing the CHK conference call, I suggested that The New York Times editorial staff read the transcript.]

    The two biggest stories on this blog so far this year in terms of number of hits are a) the story on the fire at Cyclone 18; and, b) the shoddy reporting of the original New York Times article. In fact if you google "new york times natural gas" (without the quotation marks), this blog is on the first page of results.

    If you add the single word "hoax" to that search (as in: new york times natural gas hoax), this blog is the number one result on google.

    I find it curious and interesting that The Times blames their shodding reporting on redacting e-mails. It goes much, much deeper than that.


    The Utica, extends under upstate New York, and if states want to get out of their budgetary and unemployment debacles, they would do well to look at industries that cannot easily be outsourced overseas. And that includes a favorable business climate: appropriate regulation and oversight, appropriate taxation, and a pro-business stance.

    The first comment below suggests the same thing: the Brisbane op-ed piece is a trial balloon preparing the liberal base in New York City to support hydraulic fracking in their state.  It may be the first bit -- and only bit -- of good news that the state treasurer has had in decades.

    Back to 184 Active Drilling Rigs in North Dakota -- Ties All-Time Record -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

    Link here (the site is dynamic and the number changes, sometimes daily).

    Again, if you want to see the location of oil wells in North Dakota, you can check out eser.

    With a little sleuthing, one can find the active rigs on the GIS map server at the NDIC site.

    This site will take you to all the locations of the Cyclone rigs.

    Idle Rambling -- The Effect of That 2,500-Bed Man-Camp On Williston -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

    The distance from Tioga, North Dakota, to Williston, North Dakota, is slightly less than 50 miles, forty-five minutes, maybe less.

    The distance from Tioga, North Dakota, to Minot, North Dakota, is slightly more than 80 miles, an hour and a half. To get to Minot, from Tioga, one goes through Stanley, a bit more than 30 miles away.

    One cannot get to Watford City, North Dakota, from Tioga, except via Williston, the shortest route, or through Stanley, a very long circuitous route.

    I think about those distances when I think of the new 2,500-bed man-camp coming to Tioga. The population of Tioga was 1,230 in the 2010 census, and that was probably a bit inflated due to the oil activity (by inflated, I mean, the population would have been lower had their been no oil boom).

    There is minimal "entertainment" opportunities in Tioga. There is no commercial airport. Amtrak does not stop at Tioga.

    Men in the oil patch work very long hours and work very, very hard. The men living in the new Tioga man-camp won't have much free time, but when they have free time, I assume they will spend it in two places: at Williston food and drink establishments, and at the Williston airport.

    In the "old days" the roughnecks "worked on; off two." They were in the field for two weeks, and then had two weeks off. Some of that will change with the man-camps. If the period of time in the field is extended (it certainly won't be decreased), they will spend more time in Williston, and will still continue to fly home when they have at least five days off.

    Many Willistonites drive to Bismarck to catch "charter" flights to Las Vegas, "charter" in the sense that the flights are made very economical due to their very nature: full flights; non-stop, round trips. I wouldn't be surprised that once the regional airlines sort out the common destination in Texas / Louisiana for the roughnecks, Williston might see similar "charter" flights to let's say, Houston, or Dallas, or Baton Rouge, possibly New Orleans.  

    By the way, not exactly midway, but cutting off a bit of travel time into Williston, will be the new 720-acre industrial park north of Williston. Something tells me the surrounding area is going to be extensively developed.