Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Busy, Busy, Busy In The Bakken -- March 24, 2020

This page will not be updated. The Murphy Creek oil field is tracked here.

Despite the anticipated slowdown, there is so much going on in the Bakken, it is impossible to keep up. As one example, look at the permits in just one field in the Bakken, Murphy Creek oil field, issued last year, 2019:
  • 36617, SI/NC, MRO, Easton 44-20H, Murphy Creek, huge production;
  • 36557, loc, Lime Rock Resources,
  • 36556, loc, Lime Rock Resources,
  • 36555, loc, Lime Rock Resources,
  • 36478, drl, CLR, Jack 8-4H, Murphy Creek,
  • 36477, drl, CLR, Jack 7-4H1, Murphy Creek,
  • 36476, drl, CLR, Jack 6-4H, Murphy Creek,
  • 36475, drl, CLR, Jack 5-4H1, Murphy Creek,
  • 36322, loc, Lime Rock Resources,
  • 36198, SI/NC, MRO, Parmeter 14-21H, Murphy Creek, huge production;
  • 36197, SI/NC, MRO, Reagan 14-21H, Murphy Creek, huge production;
  • 36196, dry, MRO, Raleigh 44-20H, Murphy Creek, dry due to casing/cementing/standpipe leak/ stuck drill pipe; decision to plug and abandon;
  • 36080, loc, Lime Rock Resources,
And then look at the three MRO DUCs:
  • 36617, SI/NC, MRO, Easton 44-20H, Murphy Creek, huge production with mod fracks;
  • 36198, SI/NC, MRO, Parmeter 14-21H, Murphy Creek, huge production with mod fracks;
  • 36197, SI/NC, MRO, Reagan 14-21H, Murphy Creek, huge production with mod fracks;
Look at the production of these MRO wells, and still classified as DUCs (by the way, these are not big fracks; these are about as small as one gets in the Bakken for first fracks in 2020):
  • 36617, fracked, 7/28/19 - 8/9/19; 6.5 million gallons of water; 89.1% water by mass; cum 87K 5.5 months; 1/20:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • 36198, fracked, 7/28/19 - 8/9/19; 7.7 million gallons of water; 90.65% water by mass; cum 95K 5.5 months; 1/20; 7/28/8/9
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • 36197, fracked, 7/28/19 - 8/9/19; 7.7 million gallons of water; 90.61% water by mass; cum 86K 5.5 months; 1/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

MRO WIth Five New Permits -- March 24, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5069604932

Five new permits, #37466 - #37470, inclusive --
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Murphy Creek (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for a 5-well pad in SENE 22-145-96, Murphy Creek (Quam 41, Basham 44, Bergelie 43, Sahaydek43, and Anseth 44 -- interesting to note the chronologic numbers)
    • These wells will be on the same pad as this well:
    • 17971, 393, MRO, Isabelle Harman 42-22H,  Murphy Creek, t9/09; cum 173K 1/20;
One permit renewed:
  • BR, a Cleetwood permit in McKenzie County;
CLR changes names of nine "Jersey" wells, the wells are tracked here and the changes updated at that site:
  • eight of the nine are changed from "Jersey" to "Jersey FIU" wells;
  • the ninth was a "Jersey Federal" well; it remains a "Jersey Federal" well;
  • 27878: an H3 well becomes an H1 well;
  • 27879: target unchanged, middle Bakken;
  • 27880: an H2 well becomes a middle Bakken well;
  • 27893: target remains unchanged; H2;
  • 27894: an H1 well becomes a middle Bakken well;
  • 27896: target unchanged, middle Bakken;
  • 27897: target unchanged, remains an H2 well;
  • 27898: an H1 well becomes a middle Bakken well;
  • 27880: an H3 well becomes an H2 well; 

Social distancing.

Campaign 2020 -- March 24, 2020

Link at the sidebar at the right.

At that site, I said the most important poll to follow is the Rasmussen daily presidential tracking poll.

Most recent poll, dated, March 23, 2020, approval rating:
  • Trump: 45%
  • Obama: 47% at same point in presidency
Meanwhile, ZeroHedge is reporting:

OPEC+ Vs US Frackers: Not Over Yet -- March 24, 2020


March 25, 2020:

March 25, 2020:

Later, 10:41 p.m. CT: isn't this interesting? After posting the note below three items from twitter:
  • "Russia no longer considering adding production."
  • "So Saudi are not ready to go to 12.3 mbpd. Also suggests they will have increase Ghawar production to achieve it. Will be interesting to see how the 70-year-old field handles the extra stress over long periods."
  • "Saudis seek to speed up repairs at Abqaiq complex."
    • you mean to tell me this complex has not yet been fully repaired; the attack was six months ago
Original Post

Before we get started:
  • Saudi Arabia reported 205 new Wuhan flu cases in the past 24 hours (March 24, 2020).
  • The day before, Saudi Arabia reported 51 new cases in 24 hours (March 23, 2020). 
  • That's a four-fold increase in one day.
  • The number of cases is obviously severely under-reported. 

Facts or at least what I think are the facts (folks can fact-check me on these). Maybe I should call these observations:
  • Saudi Arabia and Russia were quibbling about less than a million bopd one way or the other
    • the argument was whether to extend the quotas after they expire at the end of March, 2020 (one week from now)
    • the argument was less about the quotas (and price) and more about protecting one's market share
  • a digression:
    • 30% of the market share at $70/bbl vs 35% of the market share at $20/bbl -- but we need to move on
  • Saudi Arabia's budget is based on $83-oil and that is after a cut in the budget; 
    • much evidence that the kingdom has been in financial difficulty for several years, maybe starting in 2014 (previously posted)
    • at one time, not many years ago, Saudi Arabia's budget was based on $100-oil;
    • Saudi Arabia cannot print rials (as opposed to the US which can print dollars) -- actually the country can print rials but you get the point
  • so far, no increase in crude oil has reached the US from Saudi Arabia;
  • to meet its export goals, Saudi Arabia will first empty its crude oil storage tanks;
  • after Saudi crude oil in storage is exhausted, Saudi has to increase production to:
    • increase exports by one to two million bbls /day to achieve its rhetoric to flood the world with oil;
    • increase production for domestic use (occurs every summer to run air conditioners)
    • increase production from the fields to replace oil for storage
All of this just in time for Wuha flu to hit the mideast. Saudi often fell short of production goals in the best of times; it will be interesting to see what the kingdom can do with the threat of Wuhan flu looming.

It's hard for me to believe that the world will remain in "lockdown" past April 30th. If the world returns to normal / begins to return to "normal" by May 1, 2020, oil demand will increase significantly.

At that time, one could see:
  • max oil demand in the US; summer driving season; economy gets back on track;
  • US injects $2 trillion in stimulus;
  • China injects $7 trillion in stimulus;
  • Saudi storage depleted;
  • Russia can't make up the difference (for any number of reasons);
  • Saudi production stressed (see above)
Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. 

The above will be added to "how we got here," linked at the sidebar at the right.

Wuhan flu is tracked here

Wuhan Flu -- March 24, 2020

Certainly unexpected: I thought that the Diamond Princess story was long over. How surprising to see two new deaths from the Diamond Princess reported in the past 24 hours; no new cases, but two new deaths. It wold interesting to hear the "back story": when did they first start showing symptoms? where have they been all this time? Where were they being treated? In the US or elsewhere? Had they been hospitalized all this time?

More than one strain: when one looks at the number of cases in each country around the world, things just don't add up. I don't buy any single argument that attempts to explain why Italy is different. Is there more than one strain? Has the original strain already shown antigenic drift? That's why the "seasonal flu" vaccine changes every year: the seasonal flu virus undergoes antigenic drift year-to-year and necessitates a different vaccine. Are there two coronavirus straings, one much more lethal than the other? Stories that caught my eye while looking for articles about that very possibility:
Gingrich: Newt used the same "old age" argument to explain the "Italian problem," but at least he did also note the relationship between China and Milan: "one belt one road."

NYC: city transportation update here.

Daily grocery story visit: we didn't need anything but Sophia and I stopped by the local grocer to see how things were going. About the same -- which is good news. No cleaning supplies and no toilet paper but otherwise enough of "everything" else to get "everyone" through another day: overflowing with eggs today (limit one to a customer); adequate hamburger (limit one package to a customer); more than adequate produce -- in fact, interestingly enough, there's never been a problem with produce -- what are Americans eating these days -- no fruits and vegetables? Certainly seems that way. Caffeine-free, diet Coca Cola was sold out but there were plenty of alternatives. Plenty of bread, though less than yesterday. More than enough milk -- just not the "brand" we like. But there is plenty of milk.

Gasoline: keeping the tank full. I don't want to be caught by surprise.

A Must-Read: US Refinery Update -- RBN Energy -- March 24, 2020

$timulu$; $2 trillion, US; $7 trillion, China.

OPEC+ vs US frackers: not over yet. More to follow.

$10 oil: oil majors preparing for $10 oil.

Tokyo 2020: postponed to 2021. Will still be called Tokyo 2020.

Texas: time to get back to work? Lt governor.

National rig count

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5069604932

Only one wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, March 24, 2020: 56 for the month; 227 for the quarter, 227 for the year:
  • 34395, conf, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Jore Federal 9-12TFH
RBN Energy: COVID-19 and the crude oil price crash puts the screws on US refiners. Archived.
The collapse in crude oil prices and COVID-19’s very negative effects on global gasoline, jet fuel and diesel demand are putting an unprecedented squeeze on U.S. refiners. Even before the initial coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, started to grab headlines around New Year’s Day, refineries had already been incentivized to shift their refined products output toward diesel, which can be used to help make IMO 2020-compliant low-sulfur bunker. Now, with the COVID-19 pandemic spreading to Europe and North America and stifling consumer transportation fuel demand, the price signals are even stronger, pushing refineries to do everything they can to minimize their gasoline and jet fuel production and enter what you might call “max diesel mode.” Today, we discuss how there are challenges and limits to what they can do, and a number of refineries may need to shut down due to lower demand, at least temporarily.