Monday, August 19, 2019

Gas Buddy Finds Gasoline Below $2.00 / Gallon In DFW Metroplex -- August 19, 2019

Link here.


To enlarge, click on image.

Throw in some "loyalty / reward" points and one might find gas for $1.75 / gallon.

The Incredible, Growing Bakken -- August 19, 2019

From From NorthAmericanShale, June 25, 2019:
Along with record oil output, the Bakken’s associated gas production is rising at an even faster pace, according to the ESAI Energy report.
While crude oil production has increased by 19 percent over this time last year, natural gas volumes have climbed by 29 percent. The large increase in natural gas production is continuing to strain gas  processing capabilities, resulting in North Dakota failing to meet its gas capture goals.
Although processing capacity is being added by the end of this year, constraints on NGL takeaway will last into 2020 when a new long-haul NGL pipeline will be completed. Despite these infrastructure bottlenecks, ESAI projects Bakken crude oil to reach 1.5 million b/d by the end of 2019 and continue to grow into 2020. 
And then look at this:
Unlike the other major shale basins, the Bakken is still showing large gains in rig productivity,” ESAI analyst Elisabeth Murphy explains. “If this productivity is sustained, it will create better economics for production outside of the core, giving producers more confidence to drill and complete more wells during a volatile oil price environment”.
Even for someone inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, this is quite stunning. 

If I remember, I will come back to this tomorrow. It's too late to really press on. 

But let's parse that sentence in bold:
  • "unlike the other major shale basins...."
  • "the Bakken is still showing ... gains...in rig productivity"
  • "large gains in rig productivity...."
Again...
"unlike other major shale basins ... still showing ... not small, not moderat, but large gains in rig productivity.
More of this North American Shale story can be found at this post.

Bakken To Add Almost 250,000 BOPD To Total US Crude OIl Production Over Next Two Years -- Source -- August 19, 2019

I can't recall if I posted a link to this article before. I was looking for something else when I stumbled across this article.

Interesting to read now in light of recent news.

From oilprice, June 20, 2019, this headline:


North Dakota set an all-time crude oil and natural gas production record -- an all-time high -- in June, 2019.

I don't recall whether I posted this story back in June; it's not likely I would post the story but I could easily be wrong.

From the article, this item of interest:
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted in its latest Drilling Productivity Report that Bakken oil production will rise by 11,000 bpd in July from an expected production of 1.428 million bpd in June. [Actual: came in a bit lower -- 1.425 ... but that's a preliminary figure, and the final figure --- reported a month later -- is generally higher.]
The EIA dashboard for the Bakken is here.

North Dakota production in June, 2019, preliminary: 1,424,625 bopd (a new all-time high).

From the EIA monthly drilling productivity report, July, 2019 ((estimate to nearest 1K):
  • July, 2019: 1,435,000 bopd
  • August, 2019: 1,442,000  bopd
From the EIA monthly drilling productivity report, the dashboard linked above, August, 2019:
  • August, 2019: 1,425,000 bopd
  • September, 2019: 1,437,000 bopd
From NorthAmericanShale, June 25, 2019:
ESAI Energy reports crude and condensate production from the Bakken shale basin will surpass current record output into 2020.
In the company’s recently published North America Watch, ESAI Energy points to increasing rig productivity and efficiency gains in areas outside of the Bakken core that are translating into high growth rates for the basin as a whole.
Bakken production growth will add almost 250,000 barrels per day to total U.S. crude production over the next two years.
Along with record oil output, the Bakken’s associated gas production is rising at an even faster pace, according to the ESAI Energy report. While crude oil production has increased by 19 percent over this time last year, natural gas volumes have climbed by 29 percent.
To the best of my knowledge, oilprice has yet to report North Dakota's record June, 2019, production.

It's now 11:30 p.m. Central Time ...  I'll meet you at midnight ...

I'll Meet You At Midnight, Chris Norman

Weekly US Shale Wrap -- "Focus On Fracking" -- August 19, 2019

Updates

August 20, 2019: update here. 

Original Post 

"Focus on Fracking" is perhaps the best weekly wrap-up on the subject, the US shale revolution. The weekly update is posted every Sunday. The site is linked at the sidebar at the right.

After noting the production numbers, the completion numbers, and the demand numbers for July, 2019, "Focus on Fracking" post this interesting headline, which I will break out in three bullet points:
  • OPEC reports July's oil output was two (2) million bopd short of global demand;
  • US DUCs were down the most in almost three years (33 months to be precise); and, 
  • completion / fracking is at a 54-month high.
But then this, the fourth data point that was not in the headline:
  • the number of new wells drilled in July, 2019, was at a 16- or 18-month low depending on the data source.
It should be noted, that to the best of the writer's knowledge, no one is reporting that OPEC supply in July, 2019, was two (2) million bopd less than global demand.

It will be interesting to see the July, 2019, DUC status -- my data suggests DUCs in the Bakken were at a near all-time high in June, 2019. We will see the July data on/about August 15, 2019.

Comment: again, these dots to connect --
  • US DUCs were down the most in three years
  • completions / fracking is at a 54-month high (almost five years)
  • the number of new wells drilled .... which correlates directly with number of active rigs -- was at a 16- or 18-month low

Five New Permits -- August 19, 2019

Peak fuel: Australia now the world's third largest fossil fuel exporter. [Later: a reader sent me a link. Scroll to the bottom at the linked story for the chart. The amazing thing about this chart, is that the US might not have even been on this list a few years ago (except perhaps for coal). The gap between Australia and the US is almost negligible in the big scheme of things. Note: the graphic below is "billion tonnes of CO2." The Guardian is a bit left, politically, to The New York Times.


*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$56.198/19/201908/19/201808/19/201708/19/201608/19/2015
Active Rigs6259533274

Five new permits, #36865 - #36869, inclusive:
  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Long Creek (Williams County)
  • Comments: CLR has permits for five new wells in their recently announced Long Creek Unit project: five Truman LCU permits in section 14-153-99;
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34398, 3,347, WPX, Lion 18-19HX, Mandaree, t7/19; cum --; neighboring, #17658, s short lateral; off line most of 6/19;
  • 34396, 3,810, WPX, Lion 18-19HW, Mandaree, t7/19; cum --;
  • 34960, 3,084, WPX, Lion 18-19HEL, 4 sections, Mandaree, t7/19; cum --;
  • 34397, 3,387, WPX, Lion 18-19HA, 4 sections, Mandaree, t7/19; cum --;
  • 34400, 2,397, WPX, Lion 18-19HY, 4 sections, Mandaree, t7/19; cum --;
  • 34399, 2,684, WPX, Lion 18-19HB, 4 sections, Mandaree, t7/19; cum --;

Random Update: CLR's Increased Density Project In Camp Oil Field -- August 19, 2019

See this post.

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The Sports Page

Wow! They're reading the blog.

 I posted the story three days ago!

Today, over at the Drudge Report:

Enquiring Minds Are Asking? When Will The 2019 USGS Survey Of The Bakken Be Released? -- August 19, 2019

History of USGS surveys of the Bakken at this site.

Later: see first comment. 

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The Apple Page
iPad Pro

I was talking to a chief operations officer / IT officer for a Fortune 500 company over the weekend. He had grown up with non-Apple products and had built his own computers while in college. He never cared for Apple all those years. He certainly was not, and is not a fan boy.

For work he carries a very, very thin Dell notebook/laptop and works with other non-Apple products at the office. But within the last 60 days he bought a iPad Pro (with keyboard and blue-tooth pencil) and says that the iPad Pro is the closest thing he has seen that beats any other "computer." It's interesting: he doesn't even call the iPad Pro a computer. It's gone beyond. After much research, he even thinks the iPad Pro is better than the Surface.

That's says a lot, coming from a diehard-non-Apple user.

I haven't looked at an iPad Pro in a long time. So let's look:
  • wow, this is interesting -- thinking differently -- the site scrolls left-to-right, not down -- very, very interesting ...
  • all-screen design
    • 11" and 12.9"
    • liquid retina display, edge-to-edge
  • Face ID
  • A12X Bionic chip: most powerful chip Apple has ever made
  • Neural Engine: runs 5 trillion operations per second
    • translation: faster than most PC laptops
    • graphics: 2x faster
  • the new Apple Pencil
  • and then this -- this is quite remarkable -- a(n) USB-C slot
  • two cameras equipped with Smart HDR:
    • a 12MP camera for photos, 4K video, AR
    • a TrueDepth camera for Portrait selfies, FaceTime, Animoji, Memoji
  • "just" over a pound in weight
  • ten hours of battery life
  • holy mackerel: look at the price
    • both base models come in under $1,000
      • the 11-inch display: $799
      • the almost 13-inch display: $999
    • for the 13-inch display:
      • 64 GB: $999
      • 256 GB: $1,149
      • 512 GB: $1,349
      • 1 TB: $1,749
  • The pencil: $129
  • The keyboard: $199
  • Total for the one I would get if getting one:
    • $1,477 x 1.08 = $1,595.16
    • / 12 months = $135/month 
***********************************
The Apple Page
Apple Watch

Reports
Apple plans to launch new ceramic and titanium Apple Watch models as early as next month. The firmware assets clearly reference a 44mm titanium case and a 44mm ceramic case. 
Comments? mostly snarky.

Most ridiculous: folks comparing smart watches with a Rolex. That might have been important for Epstein. In the end, his Rolex outlasted him.

The Bakken: A Swing Producer? A Look At Completion Rates -- August 19, 2019

If I find the link again I will post it, but it doesn't interest me enough to go looking for it, but it's being reported (IIRC) that the number of completions in the Permian decreased by 12% in July, 2019.

I used to track completion data in the Bakken, but not so much any more. The completion rate seemed fairly stable, but I was curious.

In the most recent Director's Cut (June, 2019, data): the completion activity as reported by the NDIC:
  • June, 2019: 95 (preliminary)
  • May, 2019: 113 (revised)
  • April, 2019: 101 (final)
Percentage change in completions:
  • From April: a 6% drop in June
  • month-over-month, from May: a whopping 16% drop
Completion rates will vary due to weather, workforce, and price of oil, according to the NDIC. I also think it will vary according to companies meeting their quota requirements (contracts). June was the last month of the second half, and I'm convinced that operators had met their quota requirements by early June. 

The Bakken: Swing Producer -- August 19, 2019

Number of DUCs in the Bakken at an all-time high; 983 in more recent month data available (June, 2019); 985 the previous month; jumped from 962 in April, 2019, to 985 in May, 2019. Swing producer?

This data is tracked at this site.

Disclaimer: this is my data. It may different from official data posted by the NDIC. My data comes from the NDIC reports but I often make typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

The time required for a DUC to bring new oil on line is measured in days, not weeks. If that's a bit of hyperbole, and I don't think it is, then the time required for a DUC to bring new oil on line is measured in weeks, not months.

Mexico: Keeping North Dakota Great -- August 19, 2019; Part 2 -- August 22, 2019

RBN Energy: the economics of Bakken-to-Mexico propane unit trains, part 2. Archived. Part 1 was here. August 22, 2019

In May 2019, the first-ever propane unit train from the Bakken to Mexico reached its destination, and since then, three more of these 100-car, single-commodity “bulk” trains have made the same trip. Facilitating these shipments by Twin Eagle Liquids Marketing is Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s (MPC) unit train-loading terminal in Fryburg, ND, which was initially set up to load crude oil but was recently expanded to handle propane too. And soon, the terminal in TorreĆ³n, Mexico, that has been receiving these unit trains will have a new loop track too, enabling producers and marketers to take full advantage of the bulk transport option. Today, we look at the economics and challenges of this relatively new propane export route.
As we discussed earlier, Mexico’s need for propane — widely used for cooking and heating water — is on the rise, even as local supply has been dwindling. That’s boosted propane imports to the country, including from the U.S. and Canada in recent years. While most of those imports come to Mexico via ship (~52% or 83 Mb/d in 2018) or are trucked across the U.S.-Mexico border (33 Mb/d or 21%), a good portion (29 Mb/d or 18%) of it is railed in. [Only 14 Mb/d, or less than 10%, of it was transported via pipeline last year, owing to the limited pipeline capacity and routes available to reach key markets in interior Mexico.]
RBN Energy: unit trains now delivering US propane to Mexico. Archived. August 19, 2019
In May 2019, Twin Eagle Liquids Marketing shipped a 100-car train filled with propane from North Dakota to Mexico, marking the first-ever single-commodity train — i.e. “unit train” — between the Bakken and the U.S.’s southern neighbor. As it turns out, it was also the first of what appears to be a regularly scheduled run to Mexico. Since May, three more unit trains have made the journey south from the Bakken’s first unit train terminal for propane. Rail shipments of propane to Mexico as part of mixed-goods trains aren’t new, but figuring out how to economically ship large quantities of propane via unit trains has long evaded NGL marketers and producers — that is, until now. What are the economics and other factors that finally made it possible, and what are the prospects and challenges ahead for unit-train exports to Mexico? Today, we look at how the first all-propane train to Mexico came to pass and what the outlook might be for these shipments to continue.

Eleven Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Weekend, Today -- Monday, August 19, 2019

Not on my radar scope: if one just read the mainstream media, one would never know -- this caught me by surprise -- US petroleum demand strongest since 2007. Just the other day, the US SecEnergy said the oil and gas industry kept the US out of a recession ... don't know if the sector will delay the next "recession that is right around the corner," but if delayed, it will be because of the US oil and gas sector. Even on twitter, the so-called experts are mostly talking gloom-and-doom. It gets tedious. From Rigzone staff, data points:
  • year-to-day, July, 2019: total US petroleum demand average its strongest level since 2007
  • total petroleum demand: 20.8 million bopd
  • 0.9 percent year-on-year increase
  • highest demand for the month of July since 2005
  • July, 2007: 20.4 million bopd
  • US oil supply and NGLs remained near record levels in July at 12 million bopd and 4 million bpd, respectively
  • US oil production: 12.2 million bpd
  • US crude oil exports: a new all-time high of 3.3 million bpd
Canada: needs more export outlets. From Rigzone, data points:
  • Canada, 4th largest oil producer in the world: 5.2 million bopd in 2018
  • represents a 65% gain over the last decade (Hubbert peak oil theory?)
  • Alberta: 80%
  • Saskatchewan: 10%
  • for first time since 2010, oil sands (crude bitumen) exceeded conventional supply
  • oil sands accounts for 65% of Canadian production
  • exports 80% of the oil it produces, most of it goes to the US
  • and again, a reminder how Obama killing the Keystone changed everything: 
Over the past decade, U.S. oil imports from Canada have risen almost 75 percent. In fact, Canadian oil is critical for the U.S. because the country’s refining system is configured to process these heavier grades. In 2018, for instance, Canada accounted for half of total U.S. crude oil imports and nearly a quarter of U.S. refinery crude oil intake.
Water: remember that pop quiz some time ago, in which we asked which "uses" more water -- conventional vertical wells or tight, horizontal, fracked wells. Here it is again, from oilprice: conventional wells use 10-times the amount of water that fracked wells use. Again, those stories about all the water fracked wells needed turned out to be fake stories meant to destroy the US shale revolution. Readers were never duped by these stories; they knew that US golf courses used much more water than the fracking industry. and in the Bakken, the amount of water taken from Lake Sakakawea was inconsequential. In fact, during much of the Bakken boom, the Missouri River often flooded the oil fields. Whatever.

Pop quiz: by the way, I never did answer the rock-and-roll pop quiz of a few days ago. I'll do that later today.
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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today -- Monday, August 19, 2019: 44 for the month; 91 for the quarter:
  • 34156, 1,995, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 14-26 14TX, Banks, t3/19; cum 115K 6/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-201930323363232024683948427512019422
BAKKEN5-20193131059310112528889829884961023
BAKKEN4-20193023898237622561167781646152866
BAKKEN3-20193127921277853184476744732663478
BAKKEN2-2019000021581776252

Sunday, August 18, 2019: 43 for the month; 90 for the quarter:
  • 3593, SI/NC,XTO, Badlands Federal 21X-13C, North Fork, no production data;
  • 35602, SI/NC,XTO, Cole Federal 44X-32D, Siverston, no production data,
  • 35538, 1,833, CLR, McClintock 8-1H1, Pleasant Valley, t2/19; cum 117K 4/19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2019302224522340230084192241228290
BAKKEN5-20193127757273722960742155398651874
BAKKEN4-201930376743773940642552702521329669
BAKKEN3-201919188691882725922268581000716610
BAKKEN2-2019910618102461564714223408910134
  • 35349, SI/NC, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-5, Alger, no production data, 
  • 34791, SI/NC, WPX, Sweet Grass Woman 22-15H, Spotted Horn, no production data,  
  • 34764, SI/NC, MRO, Jocelyn 14-36TFH, Killdeer, no production data,  
  • 32400, SI/NC, Slawson, Atlantis Federal 2-34-35H, Big Bend, no production data,  
Saturday, August 17, 2019: 36 for the month; 83 for the quarter:
  • 34790, SI/NC, WPX, Sweet Grass Woman 22-15HZ, Spotted Horn, no production data,  
  • 32467, SI/NC, BR, CCU Boxcar 8-8-22MBH, Corral Creek, no production data,  
  • 26804 (no typo -- it's really that old), SI/NC, XTO, Cole Federal 44X-32H, Siverston, no production data,  
Active rigs:

$55.158/19/201908/19/201808/19/201708/19/201608/19/2015
Active Rigs6159533274

RBN Energy: unit trains now delivering US propane to Mexico. Archived.
In May 2019, Twin Eagle Liquids Marketing shipped a 100-car train filled with propane from North Dakota to Mexico, marking the first-ever single-commodity train — i.e. “unit train” — between the Bakken and the U.S.’s southern neighbor. As it turns out, it was also the first of what appears to be a regularly scheduled run to Mexico.
Since May, three more unit trains have made the journey south from the Bakken’s first unit train terminal for propane.
Rail shipments of propane to Mexico as part of mixed-goods trains aren’t new, but figuring out how to economically ship large quantities of propane via unit trains has long evaded NGL marketers and producers — that is, until now. What are the economics and other factors that finally made it possible, and what are the prospects and challenges ahead for unit-train exports to Mexico? Today, we look at how the first all-propane train to Mexico came to pass and what the outlook might be for these shipments to continue.
Note, tag, LPG_By_Rail
Propane is LPG but not all LPG (LP) is propane. ... Propane is classified as LPG (LP), along with butane, isobutane and mixtures of these gases. LPG comes from natural gas processing and oil refining. LPG is frequently used for fuel in heating, cooking, hot water and vehicles.
California LPG: reposting. From March 30, 2017 --
California's production of propane and butane continues to decrease; the decrease in production is offset by an increase in rail shipments. This is an interesting story for the archives with regard to many, many story lines. EIA data points:

  • many, many story lines including CBR; the state's fossil fuel regulatory environment
  • total US production of propane and butanes (liquified petroleum gases - LPG) increases to over 2 million bopd
  • increased in all regions of the country except for the West Coast
  • unlike other regions, West Coast LPG production has been decreasing since 2010, driven by declining refinery production
  • production in the region totaled 80,000 bopd in 2016, 10,000 less than in 2010
  • as a result, rail shipments have become a growing means of transporting LPG to the region
  • the amount of LPG production in the US has surged (except along the West Coast)
  • West Coast import/export data: the increased ability to transport LPG by rail has allowed Western Canadian producers, who can no longer ship LPG by pipeline to the Midwest following the repurposing and reversal of a key pipeline, to ship more LPG to the West Coast, where it can then be exported to overseas markets
  • the West Coast has only one major LPG export terminal; it accounts for nearly all overseas LPG exports
  • as LPG exports continue to increase, two other terminals on the West Coast have been proposed, but the permitting phase of development is not finished yet