Monday, August 19, 2019

The Incredible, Growing Bakken -- August 19, 2019

From From NorthAmericanShale, June 25, 2019:
Along with record oil output, the Bakken’s associated gas production is rising at an even faster pace, according to the ESAI Energy report.
While crude oil production has increased by 19 percent over this time last year, natural gas volumes have climbed by 29 percent. The large increase in natural gas production is continuing to strain gas  processing capabilities, resulting in North Dakota failing to meet its gas capture goals.
Although processing capacity is being added by the end of this year, constraints on NGL takeaway will last into 2020 when a new long-haul NGL pipeline will be completed. Despite these infrastructure bottlenecks, ESAI projects Bakken crude oil to reach 1.5 million b/d by the end of 2019 and continue to grow into 2020. 
And then look at this:
Unlike the other major shale basins, the Bakken is still showing large gains in rig productivity,” ESAI analyst Elisabeth Murphy explains. “If this productivity is sustained, it will create better economics for production outside of the core, giving producers more confidence to drill and complete more wells during a volatile oil price environment”.
Even for someone inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, this is quite stunning. 

If I remember, I will come back to this tomorrow. It's too late to really press on. 

But let's parse that sentence in bold:
  • "unlike the other major shale basins...."
  • "the Bakken is still showing ... gains...in rig productivity"
  • "large gains in rig productivity...."
Again...
"unlike other major shale basins ... still showing ... not small, not moderat, but large gains in rig productivity.
More of this North American Shale story can be found at this post.

2 comments:

  1. At $65 oil, we were doing close to 250,000 per year (for 2018). Seems to have slowed down considerably at $55 but still growing. Hard to say with the winter in there. Maybe like 100,000 per year or even less. But 125,000 per year (or 250,000 in two years) is not completely crazy.

    Of course if prices change significantly (from the prompt/strip of ~$55) that will affect the results.

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    Replies
    1. Your analysis is spot on. Most analysts are forecasting $65 oil (WTI) over the next two years.

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