Monday, January 11, 2021

Luxury EV Maker Lucid Looks To Go Public Via A Spac -- Bloomberg -- January 11, 2021

On September 10, 2020, I posted a note about a new EV company: Lucid. At the link, scroll to the bottom of the post. 

Now, today, this from a reader: EV firm Lucid Motors in talks to go public via SPAC deal -- Bloomberg. Link here. Data points:

  • could be valued up to $15 billion;
  • the SPAC could be a merger with a blank-check firm backed by Michael Klein, a veteran Wall Street dealmaker;
  • vehicle: Klein's Churchill Capital Corp IV
  • Lucid says it has always been clear about its intent to go public;
  • its first product: a luxury model the Lucid Air
  • hopes to bring into production this spring, 2021

Comment: these SPACs make "Shark Tank" look trivial and amateurish.

Getting Deep Into The Weeds With QEP's Disco Unit In Van Hook Oil Field -- January 11, 2021

Take a look at this post for background. After that post and an earlier post regarding a sister well to that well, a reader wrote me suggesting I take another look at these wells to see if one might be able to learn more about the Bakken.

The reader writes:

Just a quick note on QEP’s Disco Unit. I’ve attached a graphic on this laydown project for future reference. Six wells have been drilled .... The two wells referenced in your blog – MHA 7-27 & 7-29 have different TDs as referenced in the drilling reports. 

This is the reader's attached graphic:

If I'm reading the graphic correctly, there are two Disco units, a pad to the north - 1-28A - and a pad to the south - 8-28A

The NDIC maps suggests eight permitted locations for the north unit, 1-28A, of which permits for two locations were canceled, leaving six locations on the north pad.

This post will discuss only the six wells on the north pad. I am ignoring the south pad for now. None of those wells on the south pad have been spud; they are permitted locations only. For the record, the south pad has two rows of six locations each (a total of twelve locations). Permits for two of those locations, leaving ten wells yet to be drilled.

So, back to the north unit.

My handwritten notes regarding those six wells:

Legend:

  • Six wells: I've labeled them #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, and #6, north to south. 
    • The top two are still carried as confidential by the NDIC.
    • The bottom four are all drl/NC.

#1: Three Forks         (#35453)
#2: Three Forks         (#35455)

#3: Middle Bakken   (#35454)
#4: Middle Bakken   (#35456)

#5: Three Forks        (#35449)
#6: Three Forks        (#35451)

    • The odd-numbered horizontals run to the east, arrows pointing to the right.
    • The even-numbered horizontals run to the west, arrows pointing to the left.

I abbreviated the well names to keep it simple:

  • #1: 7-27 (chronologic #7; bottom hole ends in section 27)
  • #2: 7-29
  • #3: 5-27
  • #4: 5-29 (chronologic #5; bottom hole ends in section 29)


  • #5: 4-27
  • #6: 4-29 (chronologic #4; bottom hole ends in section 29)

Now for the total vertical depths, measured:
 

#1:

  • Middle Bakken:    10,219'
  • Three Forks:                             10,278'   

#2:

  • Middle Bakken:    10,218'   
  • Three Forks:                               10,288'

#3:

  • Middle Bakken:    10,213'
  • Three Forks:

#4:

  • Middle Bakken:    10,220'
  • Three Forks:

#5:

  • Middle Bakken:    10,214'
  • Three Forks:                              10,274'              

#6:

  • Middle Bakken:    10,217'
  • Three Forks:                            10,268'

I will leave it here, waiting for more observations and comments from the reader.

Note: in a note like there will be content and typographical errors. In addition, I may be misreading things that the reader can clarify.

A Closer Look At The MRO DUC Reported As Completed -- January 11, 2021

The well:

  • 33947, drl/A, MRO, Prior USA 42-8TFH-2B, 33-061-04125, Reunion Bay, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 95K over 49 days; fracked 8/26/20 - 9/13/20; 9.7 million gallons of water; 75.8% water by mass; 6.7% produced water by mass; production; 65K extrapolates to 73K over 30 days;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-20202029395294563050839884380540
    BAKKEN10-20202765439649347716871581645073211
    BAKKEN9-202021591499425170508
From the file report:
  • drilling unit, 1620 acres;
Neighboring wells:
  • neighboring wells remain off line;

CLR's Lundberg Federal Wells In Rattlesnake Point

The wells (permits):

  • 38065, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 3-8HSL1, Jim Creek, NWNW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1189 FWL, 
  • 38066, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 4-8H, Rattlesnake Point, NWNW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1234 FWL,
  • 38067, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 5-8H1, Rattlesnake Point, NWNW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1279 FWL,
  • 38068, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 6-8H, Rattlesnake Point, NWNW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1324 FWL,
  • 38069, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 7-8H1, Rattlesnake Point, NENW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1369 FWL,
  • 38070, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 8-8H, Rattlesnake Point, NENW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1414 FWL,
  • 38071, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 9-8H1, Rattlesnake Point, NENW 8-146-96, 358 FNL 1459 FWL,
  • 38072, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 10-8H, Rattlesnake Point, NWNE 8-146-96, 550 FNL 1630 FEL,
  • 38073, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 11-8H1, Rattlesnake Point, NWNE 8-146-96, 518 FNL 1661 FEL,
  • 38074, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 12-8HSL, Jim Creek, NWNE 8-146-96, 486 FNL 1693 FWL,

Comments:

  • All pretty much in a straight line, running west to east
  • Seven 358 FNL and from 1234 FWL to 1459 FWL
  • The remaining three are about an additional 200 FWL

The graphic:

CLR With Three More Permits; Five DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 11, 2021

Active rigs:

  • NDIC active rigs site is down;
  • WTI: $52.14

Three new permits, #38072 - #38075, inclusive

  • Operator: CLR
  • Fields: Rattlesnake Point
  • Comments: CLR has permits for three more Lundberg Federal well in Rattlesnake Point; 
    • 38072, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 10-8H, Rattlesnake Point, 550 FNL 1630 FEL;
    • 38073, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 11-8H1, Rattlesnake Point, 518 FNL 1661 FEL;
    • 38074, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 12-8HSL, Rattlesnake Point, 486FNL 1693 FEL;

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 34255, drl/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 8-8-5-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
  • 34257, drl/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 7-8-5-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
  • 33947, drl/A, MRO, Prior USA 42-8TFH, 33-061-04125, Reunion Bay, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 95K over 49 days;
  • 37457, loc/A, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13D-12-7H, Phelps Bay, no production data,
  • 37458, loc/A, Petro-Hunt, USA153-95-13D-12-6H, Phelps Bay, no production data,

Subscription Model

Subscription model: for those who have been paying attention, the new mantra in technology and streaming services -- "monthly revenue stream." Amazon took the lead with Amazon Prime and then Alexa; that opened the doors. Sure, others were doing it before Amazon but Amazon's Prime and Alexa really, really opened up the concept to the masses and for other companies to emulate. 

Apple: watch for Apple to announce -- at some point in the future -- that they are starting to take orders for their new car. Re-posting from December 23, 2020, well before we heard the official announcement regarding an Apple-Hyundai partnership. Note the "2024" date in the post below -- posted December 23, 2020. That's now the same date that Apple is using: 2024. 

By the way, elsewhere, Apple mentioned that it was moving toward a "hardware / software" subscription" model without further elaboration, but one can imagine. Technically, most folks buy their new iPhones on a subscription model even though such purchases are not marketed that way. But one can imagine it's a small step from "an iPhone by subscription" to "a MacBook Pro by subscription." This is different than purchasing with a credit card. For the buyer, the difference may be immaterial, but think about it: instead of paying for an Apple MacPro with one's Visa card, one pays a monthly fee directly to Apple. The "middle man" is bypassed; money paid directly to Apple. One would thing the cost savings would be passed back to the consumer. LOL. For investors, think what this might mean for MasterCard, Visa, Discover, etc. 

Note: later a reader provided this bit of insight, which suggests an example of monthly revenue stream in the truck market:

Although I no longer closely follow Nikola Motor, (the CEO's shenanigans were a real gut punch), their approach to vehicle sales/distribution struck me as particularly brilliant.

Condensed version ... Nikola would not sell any Class 8 trucks, only lease them for, I believe, 7-year terms, with monthly fee set, all maintenance costs included (sans tires, I think), and one million miles free fuel (hydrogen,  as  the trucks were re-designed to be battery/electric with recharging mechanism  being hydrogen fuel cells. 
 
The novel electrolysis - based hydrogen production may yet be the most enduring impact ... IF it is shown to 'work').

Longer term, the shift towards some type of electric propulsion may yet prove viable, but MANY differing approaches are ferociously competing for dominance.

*********************************
Fanciful AppleCar Reservations And Pricing

The tea leaves suggest it is only a matter of time before a monthly subscription will be the way folks buy EVs in the future. 

For example:

  • Apple sets the base price of their 2024 model for $100,000;
  • one can reserve a 2024 model by subscribing;
  • the initial down payment is $1,000 and then a monthly "fee" of $500 until the car is delivered;
  • the initial down payment gets you a coupon to purchase the car at 75% of the advertised price ($100,000 in this case);
  • the delivery date is stamped on the coupon (first come, first served method) and guaranteed; every month delay would require the regular $500 subscription fee but the price of the AppleCar would come down by a similar amount each month until delivery;
  • the AppleCar like all Apple products would have a warranty for one year, with an extended AppleCarCare warranty up to ten years, also at a subscription/streaming price;
  • the coupon is transferable with no strings attached, and can be bought and sold like any other equity; the AppleCarCare warranty would also be transferable.

The price points shown are just pulled from thin air, but "Disney analysts" could easily come up with the best price points for the initial down payment and the monthly "fees." 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Re-Posting: Mass Transit And Car-Pooling Dead In China -- Country Calls For Social Distancing -- January 11, 2021

Look at this: carpooling and mass transit is dead in China due to calls for social distancing.


*************************
Autos

Ford: will stop manufacturing in Brazil in 2021 as part of a restructuring plan meant to cut costs and increase efficiency. The company is closing two plants immediately and a third later in the year, affecting about 5,000 workers. Announced/posted January 11, 2021. Selected updates for "autos" are posted here

Tesla: BofA just set a new price target for TSLA -- a "street" high of $900/share. Link here. Announced/posted January 11, 2021.

I mentioned this to a reader yesterday that Tesla could easily increased its float by another 10% and the price of TSLA would probably go up. Tesla could raise another $75 billion and probably not see any decrease in share price. The fact that Tesla has not done that yet is interesting.

The Sports Page -- Best Part Of The Day -- Stephen A -- January 11, 2021

First things first: pop quiz --

  • quick, name the country that has a region that has the highest volume of snowfall of any inhabited and arable region in the world -- correct answer: 100 points;
  • name the region of that country (spelling errors will be overlooked) -- correct answer: 1,000 points

Now back to Stephen A over at ESPN:

I guess there were some games played yesterday. Just checked the scores. What happened!!!?? Cleveland Browns beat the Pittsburgh Steelers? Say what? I can't wait to hear Stephen A talk about his favorite team. LOL.

I had to go back and look at the box score. 28 - 0 in the first quarter. Wow. This was the Cleveland Browns against the Steelers? Has there ever been a 28 - 0 score in the first quarter in the NFL playoffs. I assume so, but this is pretty amazing. 

It looks like Ben R stayed a year too long.  He will have the highest salary cap in 2021. And that comes in a year in which the NFL salary cap likely to drop. $41.3 million cap hit if on 2021 roster. Dak Prescott is looking better every day. LOL.

I thought the Washington team was in the playoffs but didn't see their name on the weekend scorecard. I may have missed them; maybe a name change I missed.

The rest of the games / scores interested me not. 

I don't care for Stephen A but like a train wreck I can't not watch. So I tune in for a few minutes, but will switch to its sister station. 

Ohio - Alabama tonight. Haven't decided whether I will any of it. Highly unlikely. May surf through it periodically.

*************************************
In Other News

China flu watch: all that talk about folks refusing to be vaccinated. Gaslighting? Fake news? Whatever?

Link here.

**********************************
Asia LNG Spikes

Link here.

**************************
Fossil Fuel Is Dead! Long Live Fossil Fuel

WTI today: $52.01. 

Link here.


And then look at this: carpooling and mass transit is dead in China due to calls for social distancing.

Earnings Season Kicks Off -- Today's Note From Yahoo!Finance -- FWIW -- January 11, 2021

Earnings season kicks off today.

Earnings -- 4Q20
October - December, 2020
 
This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be content and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.

From the daily Yahoo!Finance note:

"The economy is in danger of sliding backwards here if the blue wave fiscal stimulus spending isn't brought forward quickly in the first days of the Biden administration,” MUFG Chief Financial Economist Chris Rupkey said on Friday. 
“The Biden administration will be judged by what they do to support the economy in the first two weeks rather than the traditional measure of the first 100 days." 
The disappointing jobs report, however, did come with some silver linings including the fact that industries less sensitive to COVID were still growing. 
“[If] it weren’t for strong gains in other industries, the employment report would have been even weaker,” Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zentner said. 
“[B]ut those large declines in COVID-sensitive sectors, many of which may be temporary, were offset by quite strong gains elsewhere, with retail, manufacturing, construction, professional & business services, and health care jobs, among others, all growing quite robustly in December.” 
Things are looking up. 
The idea that the underlying economy is in decent shape jibes bullishly with what’s shaping to be a “fiscal goldilocks” scenario: a divided government that’s capable of pushing through additional emergency fiscal support while being unable to advance tax policy seen as inhibiting growth in the corporate sector. 
Indeed, following the results of last Tuesday’s Georgia runoff elections, economists across Wall Street boosted their forecasts for GDP growth in 2021. Some economists have even pulled forward their expectations for tighter Fed policy.

There is much more in the note, some of it heavily laden with unnecessary political rhetoric. If I could find the link I would add but this is in my news feed without a link. I'm sure it's easy to find if one wants. 

4Q20 Earnings

Note: this is, hands down, one of the most boring things I to do each quarter. I doubt anyone really looks at it but the day I quit doing this will be the day I miss posting something important. The word "important" is used loosely. Very loosely.

This is linked at the top of the sidebar at the right during earnings season. After earnings -- pretty much after Whiting and Apple posts their earning, this post will move back into obscurity.


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Earnings -- 4Q20
October - December, 2020

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be content and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.

January 11, 2021
: banks kick off earnings season.

EOG: 4Q20 earnings

CLR: 4Q20 earnings; corporate presentation; here

NEE vs SRE: link here. SRE transcript.

DIS: Disney reported after hours, Feb 11, 2021:

  • closed up 0.75% just ahead of earnings release:
  • after hours: up over 2%
    • beats estimates
    • subscribers soar to 95 million; well ahead of the 90 million forecast;
    • unexpected profit; a loss was expected!
    • earned 32 cents / share vs a loss of 38 cents expected;

Tesla: incredibly bad earnings report; analysts trying to blow it off;

AAPL: forecast. Also, at Forbes. Blows away estimates.

Microsoft blows away 2Q21 expectations on cloud and personal computing strength -- Yahoo!Finance. Link here. CNBC "Fast Money" panelists are simply amazed at the beat. Bottom line: MFST seems to be in the sweet spot with regard to the pandemic. If so, one can imagine the other winners. Not being said: the pandemic. Tonight's CDC numbers may be the most interesting numbers in ten days. If the CDC numbers are not a whole lot better tonight .....

MSFT surges. Up three dollars during normal trading hours; up another $15 after the close. Up about 9% for the day. The "Fast Money" panelists go back to IBM -- suggesting the earlier numbers are a lot worse than originally thought -- one panelist has actually removed "IBM" from his radar scope. 

Big concern: two two-trillion-dollar companies are going to "box out" a lot of other tech companies.

Starbucks 1Q21 earnings top estimates, but same-store sales hit by Covid-19. SBUX up about 1 percent during the day but then down 1.6% after hours. Overall, a disappointing day. Analysts, yesterday, suggested that Starbucks guidance today would be the bellwether for the pandemic. Not looking good.

SLB: must have done okay; shares up 22 cents (almost 1% when the overall market was down); huge beat; 22 cents per share vs 17 cents forecast; revenue of $5.5 billion vs $5.25 billion forecast.

AA: wow -- day after earnings, down almost 10%. Trading at $20.80. 

UAL: not unexpected. Posted a $2.1 billion 4Q20 loss, its fourth-in-a-row; issued a tepid near-term forecast. Down another 5% today. Trading at $42.75.

BKR: shares up nicely so investors must have been happy with results.

UNP: in line at best; shares fall more than 3%. Huge disappointment.

KB Homes: shares jump; profits exceed expectations. $1.12/share. But look at this: expectations: 87 cents/share. Revenue of $1.19 billion exceeded expectations of $1.11 billion. 

BlackRock: huge beat.

AAPL earnings estimate (January 14, 2021: $1.40/share; will report January 27, 2021).

JP Morgan: big 4Q20 earnings beat. Revenues, $29.2 billion vs $28.65 billion; EPS, $3.79 vs $2.62 expected. 

Bank of New York Mellon: plunged after missing expectations. 

KMI: beats 4Q20 earnings and revenue estimates; 27 cents vs 24 cents; and $3.12 billion; beats estimates by almost 2%. Only once in the last four quarters has KMI beat estimates. 

UAL: shares drop about 3% after reporting record loss; CNBC tried to put a good face on this, but did not convince me; bullish analysts are counting on a Biden miracle; 

AA: shares drop a bit despite beating estimates; guidance not not assuring; 

PG: slips slightly after earnings; same ol' same ol';

2021: Key Wells To Watch -- January 11, 2021

Key wells to watch in 2021: Link here. Archived.

************************************
Tonight on PBS: Codebreaker

Trailer here. You may have to get rid of an ad and click a couple of times to get to the trailer. 

*************************************
For The Archives
For the Granddaughters

B-52s over the Mideast.

There is nothing to see here. Just some links to YouTube videos, a link to a story to set the record straight on the USS Nimitz, etc. This is all for the archives and for the granddaughters.

This is for my personal benefit to go back to if conditions warrant. 

I've had one sortie in the B-52, flying out of Grand Forks, back in 1982, or thereabouts. Eight-hour mission; low-level at night, in the weather, through the Rockies.

I've had almost exactly 100 sorties in the F-15, all of them overseas: Germany, England, Spain, Italy, Africa.

I have never flown in the F-16 by choice. Many opportunities but I was pretty sure I didn't want to experience the g-forces and/or head-banging. 

I have never been on an aircraft carrier. 

I've been on the ground in Iraq with US Army special ops. Peacetime mission following terrorist attack.

I've had one tour of a nuclear submarine (not under sail, in port).

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- January 11, 2021

The wells coming off confidential list:

  • 36548, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 4B, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2020472712564
10-20203388182574
9-202019715138
8-202017003801
7-20201882242013
  • 36547, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 3TX, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2020780920060
10-20202767574216
9-202010652333
8-202020033844
7-20201578041786
  • 37461, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13C-12-3H, Phelps Bay, no production data, 
  • 37460, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13C-12-4H, Phelps Bay, no production data, 
  • 37459, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13D-12-5H, Phelps Bay, no production data, 
  • 36709, conf,  Hess, BL-Amelia-156-95-1514H-11, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2020785421543
10-20201409326292
9-20201384422101
8-20201485621779
7-20202135133440
  • 36708, conf,  Hess, BL, Amelia-156-95-1514H-10, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2020942418738
10-20201270720586
9-2020959918196
8-20201619624836
7-20202036431441
  • 36380, conf, Hess, EN-Person-156-94-1102H-6, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20201504024045
10-20201671323934
9-20201268815857
8-20201931114664
7-2020222975433

Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- Hess, Petro-Hunt, Oasis -- January 11, 2021

Tonight on PBS: CodebreakerTrailer here. You may have to get rid of an ad and click a couple of times to get to the trailer.

High impact wells to follow in 2021: great overview.  

Free market capitalism: Vietnam is buying Indian rice for first time ever. Yawn. Except this:

Vietnam is the world's third biggest exporter of rice -- and now it's importing rice from rival India for the first time in decades after local prices (in Vietnam) jumped to their highest in nine years amid limited domestic supplies. 
What was that old saying? "Carrying coal to Newcastle?"

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

  • It appears DMR is "down" this morning.
  • WTI: $51.89 -- down 35 cents overnight so that means it was over $52 at some point.

Eight wells coming off the confidential list -- for initial production data for these wells, see this post:

Monday, January 11, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 16 for the year.

  • 36548, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 4B, Banks, nice well;
  • 36547, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 11-6 3TX, Banks, nice well;
Sunday, January 10, 2021: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 14 for the year.

  • 37461, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13C-12-3H, Phelps Bay,

Saturday, January 9, 2021: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 13 for the year.

  • 37460, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13C-12-4H, Phelps Bay,
  • 37459, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13D-12-5H, Phelps Bay,
  • 36709, conf, Hess, BL-Amelia-156-95-1514H-11, Beaver Lodge, nice well;
  • 36708, conf, Hess, BL, Amelia-156-95-1514H-10, Beaver Lodge; nice well;
  • 36380, conf, Hess, EN-Person-156-94-1102H-6, Big Butte; big well;

Charlson oil field and Petro-Hunt: see this post.

RBN Energy: 2020's upheavals bring midstreamers' challenges to the fore.

Much the way that COVID-19 accelerated the trends toward working from anywhere, shopping online, and exercising at home, the pandemic and its far-reaching energy-market effects fast-forwarded the challenges that many North American midstream companies had been expecting to face more gradually through the 2020s. The good news — if you can call it that — is that a lot of economic pain was front-loaded into the past 10 months. The bad news is that a sizable subset of midstreamers is saddled with too much capacity in shale basins where drilling activity and production are down sharply. For them, there’s still more pain ahead, even bankruptcy in a few cases. In today’s blog, we discuss highlights from the newly released 2021 edition of East Daley Capital’s Dirty Little Secrets report about what’s ahead for the midstream sector and 27 leading companies within it.

2020 threw a gut punch to the midstream sector in the U.S. and Canada and forced a gut check at many midstream companies that saw their plans and expectations for the first half of the 2020s torn asunder. A year ago, before the coronavirus gained a foothold in North America, there was a general consensus among midstream executives that (1) the boom years for energy infrastructure development were beginning to wind down; (2) the midstream sector was entering an era of top-to-bottom reevaluation and rationalization; and (3) capacity was being overbuilt in some areas, most notably crude pipelines out of the Permian. All that remained true as COVID-19 took root and spread in March, April, and beyond, but all kinds of new, troublesome issues arose, many of them related to the fact that less crude oil and refined products were being produced and transported by pipeline.

"Focus On Fracking" Posted; North Dakota Catches Attention Of Oilprice.com -- January 11, 2021

This week's edition of "Focus on Fracking" has been posted. The lede:

  • gasoline demand at a 32-week low;
  • gasoline supplies up most in 35 weeks;
  • distillates supplies up the most in 31 weeks

And yet, WTI is holding at $50+.

*************************************
North Dakota Catches Attention Of Oilprice.com


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Asia: LNG Spot Prices Hit Record High

 

An Old Petro-Hunt Well With 65x Jump In Production -- January 10, 2021

A little background for newbies: the Charlson oil field is one of my favorite fields. It is "owned" by Petro-Hunt, and the wells are incredibly good. The field seems to be a good one for "advantaged" oil. The field is tracked here but has not been updated in a very long time. Within the last few months, Petro-Hunt seems to have become a bit more active in the Bakken, which pretty much means this field. 

The well (see this post for full production):

The well:

  • 16693, 300, Petro-Hunt, USA 12B-2-1H, Charlson, t8/08; cum 108K 10/20; off line 11/20;

Stimulated/tested: August 30, 2008: 600K lbs of sand;

Stripper well: April 20, 2011.

FracFocus: no data. 

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202000006620662
BAKKEN10-2020131881205743825151955471
BAKKEN9-202030650364681422914078811050
BAKKEN8-20201249060554183366
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000154501545
BAKKEN5-20200000220
BAKKEN4-20202043064617811412528151178
BAKKEN3-202031688868081737375335370
BAKKEN2-202027574958072067684441162547
BAKKEN1-202031993710016342514706014490
BAKKEN12-201927974310569382611188011016
BAKKEN11-2019533762314153517663017628
BAKKEN10-201913201510010
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-201921107037332211
BAKKEN6-2019301412313524973176

A neighboring horizontal recently fracked:

  • 31497, 1,657, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-1B-7-4H, Three Forks, 33-053-07050, Charlson, t12/19; cum 179K 10/20; off line 11/20; 42 stages; 8.4 million lbs proppant; 10/9/19; fracked 10/9/19 - 10/18/19; 11.3 million gallons of water; 91.7% water by mass;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-202000260000
    BAKKEN10-20202516083164639623243632413752
    BAKKEN9-20203017564171198798242312396472
    BAKKEN8-20200000000
    BAKKEN7-20200000000
    BAKKEN6-20200000000
    BAKKEN5-20200000000
    BAKKEN4-20202154295764474174597076242
    BAKKEN3-2020311505214989114032245922013355
    BAKKEN2-20202928002281471967044339345729767
    BAKKEN1-20203136991370022565661520061520
    BAKKEN12-20193146098461702399774645074645
    BAKKEN11-2019101345712838138911195011195
    BAKKEN10-20190000000