Friday, April 3, 2020

So Much Work Left To Be Done In The Bakken -- April 3, 2020

Beaver Lodge oil field. Hess multi-well pads of interest.


Beaver Lodge is tracked here but it has not been updated in a long time.

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Frogs

I'm hoping Enerplus develops an Amphibian pad. 

Extant amphibiians (collectively, Lissamphibia):
  • frogs
  • salamanders
  • caecilians
Molecular estimates suggest the Lissamphibia may stretch back farther than the fossil record, as much as 100 million year (Myr) farther back.

Salamanders are the morphologically most generalized of the three extant groups, not having the locomotor specializations of their sister tax frogs (jumping) or caecilians (burrowing).

Of the three, salamandroids may be the oldest, and fossils suggest their appearance may be 40 Myr earlier than previously supposed.

The 40-Myr extension is most exciting. Folks have been looking for estimates of divergence of cryptobranchoids and salamandroids.

From wiki:
The subclass Lissamphibia includes all living amphibians. They are classified in three orders:
  • the Anura: frogs, including toads;
  • the Caudata or Urodela: salamanders, including newts; and, 
  • the Gymnophiona or Apoda: the limbless caecilians. 
Although the ancestry of each group is controversial, all share certain common characteristics, which indicates they evolved from a common ancestor and so form a clade.
lissós: ancient Greek, smooth;
amphibia: ancient Greek, two types of life

I am very, very disappointed that neither frogs nor amphibians are found in the index of Aristotle's The Lagoon, by Armand Marie Leroi, c. 2014, 500 pages.

It's unfortunate that I cannot find any English word that derives from "lissa." Engineers will be familiar with the lissajous curve but that derives from the man who first described these complex harmonic motion curves: Jules Antoine Lissajous. 

The Brothers Gibb -- Stayin' Alive -- April 3, 2020

The wells:
  • 24352, 287, CLR, Gibb 1-24H, 30 stages, 3 million lbs, Beaver Lodge, t3/13; cum 137K 2/20; 
  • 37485, conf, CLR, Gibb 2-24HSL1, Beaver Lodge,
  • 37486, conf, CLR, Gibb 3-24H, Beaver Lodge,
  • 37487, conf, CLR, Gibb 4-24H1, Beaver Lodge,
  • 37488, conf, CLR, Gibb 5-24H, Beaver Lodge,
  • 37489, conf, CLR, Gibb 6-24H1, Beaver Lodge,
  • 37490, conf, CLR, Gibb 7-24H, Beaver Lodge,
  • 37491, conf, CLR, Gibb 11-24HSL, Beaver Lodge,
  • 37492, conf, CLR, Gibb 10-24H1, Beaver Lodge,
  • 37493, conf, CLR, Gibb 9-24H, Beaver Lodge,
  • 37494, conf, CLR, Gibb 8-24H1, Beaver Lodge,
Current area:

*********************** 

Stayin' Alive, Bee Gees

CLR With Four More Gibb Permits -- April 3, 2020

Active rigs -- hope springs eternal -- rig count up by one today --

$28.344/3/202004/03/201904/03/201804/03/201704/03/2016
Active Rigs4462584829

Five new permits, #37491 - #37495, inclusive --
  • Operators: CLR (4); True Oil
  • Fields: Beaver Lodge (Williams); North Branch (McKenzie
  • Comments:
    • CLR hs permits for four more Gibb wells in Beaver Lodge oil field, SESE 24-156-95;
    • True Oil has a permit for a Northern State well in North Branch, NWNE 36-148-102
Name change:
  • Slawson, #37239, from Orca Federal 9-23-26TFH to Loon Federal 5 SLTFH;

ND Paddlefish Season Canceled -- April 3, 2020

Fears that the paddlefish may carry the coronavirus? Whatever.

Link here.

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Atmospheric CO2 -- February, 2020

Link here.


February, 2019: 411.75.

March, 2020, data should be out early next week. It will be interesting to see the April, 2020, data a month from now after worldwide Wuhan flu lock downs took effect. Could be very, very interesting.

ND Regulators Approve Two Pipelines -- April 3, 2020

Link here.

Two pipelines:
  • a CO2 pipeline supporting EOR projects: Denbury
  • a NGL pipeline: ONEOK
  • both approved unanimously
The NGL pipeline: ONEOK (earlier story here) -- The Tioga Lateral Pipeline
  • $100 million project; to be completed by end of 2020 -- this year
  • northwest corner of the state
  • 75-mile steel pipeline: up to 30,000 b/d
  • from three processing plants
    • Hess Tioga
    • XTO Nesson
    • Flatiron Springbrook
  • will end by connecting to the northern portion of ONEOK's existing Bakken NGL Pipeline
  • ultimately connecting to markets further south, including the Gulf Coast
  • ethane, propane, and butane
From an earlier post:
Data points for the Bakken NGL pipeline:

  • $500 million
  • 600-mile pipeline
  • capacity to transport 60,000 bpd of unfractionated NGls from the Williston Basin to the Overland Pass Pipeline in northern Colorado
  • first NGL pipeline to transport natural gas from the Williston Basin to facilities in the Mid-Continent and the Texas Gulf Coast
  • further plans: another $100 million to install additional pump stations to increase capacity to 135,000 bpd from 60,000 bpd as noted in today's press release; this expansion will be completed in 3Q14
The  other pipeline:
  • Denbury: from Montana into North Dakota, through Bowman, Slope counties
  • 18-mile pipeline; nine miles inside ND
  • ND portion: nine miles; $9.2 million (again, rule of thumb -- $1 million / mile)
  • six months to build; several months of testing; dates unknown
  • will carry CO2 for EOR
  • CO2 will originate from XOM's Shute Creek Gas Plant and COP's Lost Cabin Gas Plant in Wyoming; via several pipelines to Fallon County in southeastern MT; from there via this new Denbury pipeline
  • to boost oil production from depleted wells in the Cedar Creek Anticline Area
  • second CO2 pipeline in ND; first was the 1998 Basin Electric's Great Plains Synfuels Plant near Beulah to oil fields in Saskatchewan

The Bakken Simply Never Quits -- Here's Another One -- MRO's Howard USA In Reunion Bay -- April 3, 2020

This huge well just went off line -- we'll follow it for awhile to see what's going on -- I assume it came off line due to all the neighboring activity and will soon be back on line.

The well:
  • 18514, 672, MRO, Howard USA 11-1H, Reunion Bay, t6/10; cum 565K 1/20; offline as of 1/20;
Recent production which shows a nice "halo" effect. Nine thousand bbls over 14 days extrapolates to 19,000 bbls for 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202000170000
BAKKEN1-2020752054618983372969
BAKKEN12-20193128522872128940683712171
BAKKEN11-20193033103303136239043108583
BAKKEN10-2019313749374712073769352613
BAKKEN9-2019304219421111622795246383
BAKKEN8-2019314520451083931162473377
BAKKEN7-2019314452445423874161385541
BAKKEN6-20193051775175337446464173168
BAKKEN5-20193169146947551056005089110
BAKKEN4-2019307947789782185888535373
BAKKEN3-2019112366244227414272950
BAKKEN2-201914901289573785862208079
BAKKEN1-20196133712974832130901224
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-201814112717022881385606638
BAKKEN9-201828227123214552689235536
BAKKEN8-2018312564239255430712472263
BAKKEN7-2018312619260452430301915776
BAKKEN6-2018302529258749828812389164

And if  you want to see production from the very beginning, we have that, too.

MRO Reporting Some Huge DUCs -- April 3, 2020

I don't think I've reported this one. A huge well, still a DUC.
  • 36338, SI/NC, MRO, Julia Horn USA 11-2TFH, 33-061-04458, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 113K in three months; Three Forks first bench; fracked 10/27/19 - 11/7/19; 8.4 million gallons of water (a moderate frack); 89.4% water by mas;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2020292756727566327392935726939523
BAKKEN1-2020292603825994309352453122382371
BAKKEN12-20193045764457535573254635540646122
BAKKEN11-2019613273131021788214375013475

Other wells on this pad:
  • 18243, 646, MRO, Gladys USA 21-2H, Reunion Bay, t1/10; cum 390K 1/20; off line for past eight months; now back on line; huge jump in production;
  • 36499, SI/NC, MRO, Allen Horn USA 11-2H, Reunion Bay, huge well: t--: cum 151K in three months;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2020293761437754190343966136425652
BAKKEN1-2020295188351678311085089946675669
BAKKEN12-20192961391611474003646888494537851
BAKKEN11-2019200220000
  • 36339, SI/NC, MRO, Lottio Horn USA 21-2TFH, Reunion Bay, very nice well: t--: cum 130K in three months;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2020293544635467354863795434930584
BAKKEN1-2020313608135913358983632033122724
BAKKEN12-20193036631367694161328824298123401
BAKKEN11-20191121924216414126815282013826
  • 36340, SI/NC, MRO, Horn USA 21-2H, Reunion Bay, another huge well; t--: cum 138K in three months;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2020293472134615219823963436494740
BAKKEN1-2020202073420784180171852216741370
BAKKEN12-20193157836579315251644541508635587
BAKKEN11-20191325207248823210328725027009
Two wells to the immediate east:

  • 23209, 2,009, MRO, William USA 31-2TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/13; cum 301K 11/19; off line since 2/19;
  • 21466, 2,448, MRO, William USA 31-2H, Reunion Bay, t7/13; cum 482K 2/20; off line for only two months; no halo effect;

Whiting Starting To Report The Ogden Wells In The Sanish -- Remain Confidential -- April 3, 2020

The graphics:



The wells:
  • 36388, conf, Whiting, Ogden 11-3HU, Alger:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-2020233440
1-202095880
  • 36391, conf, Whiting, Ogden 12-3-3H, 33-061-04477, Sanish, fracked 11/24/19 - 12/3/19; 8.2 million gallons of water (moderate frack); 88.43% water by mass:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-2020227460
1-202029990
  • 36389, conf, Whiting, Ogden 12-3XH, 33-061-04475, Sanish; fracked 11/24/19 - 12/2/19; 8.1 million gallons of water (moderate frack); 88.41% water by mass:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-2020181060

The older neighboring wells are all off line.

ND Rig Count Holds Steady At 43 -- April 3, 2020

Employment situation: posted, 7:30 a.m. CT. A quick look at the numbers suggest things were not as bad in March as forecast, or maybe they were. Absolutely impossible to predict how talking heads with interpret these numbers. April is going to be a humdinger.


Average workweek: 34.2 hours -- remains just below the ObamaCare mandate of 35 hours. I think that number is the most fascinating. History, link here.


Social distancing: I didn't read the story, I'm not interested. But over on twitter someone suggested that President Trump will mandate "social distancing" between rigs to minimize spread of coronavirus. That may be a problem in the Permian -- too many rigs too close together -- but in the Bakken, all rigs are at least six feet apart, the current recommendation from the CDC for "social distancing." In the Bakken, the closest two active rigs come together is 50 feet from each other on pad drilling.

Cartels and the Texas Railroad Commission: this is quite fascinating to watch. Will the TRRC become an ex officio member of OPEC? Will OPEC+ become OPEC++? I thought President Trump and the American public wanted lower gasoline prices. That reminds me, where did I put my copy of Alice in Wonderland?

Which reminds me: the best literary find last year -- The Annotated Wuthering Heights.

Iraq: exported more oil in March, 2020, than February, 2020, but revenues halved. The link is at Barron's; not sure why it isn't behind a paywall. 

Gas buddy:




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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$26.594/3/202004/03/201904/03/201804/03/201704/03/2016
Active Rigs4362584829

No wells coming off the confidential list today.

RBN Energy: crude crisis squeezes export terminals.
Just a few months ago, crude oil producers and marketers were wondering whether there would be enough marine terminal capacity along the Gulf Coast to handle the steadily increasing volumes of crude that would need to be exported over the next few years. Now, with WTI prices hovering around $25/bbl and producers slashing their 2020 drilling plans, expectations of rising U.S. production and exports are out the window. Instead, what may be shaping up is a fierce competition among the owners of existing storage facilities and loading docks to offer the most efficient, lowest-cost access to the water. Today, we continue our series with a look at two large Houston-area facilities: the Houston Fuel Oil Terminal and Seabrook Logistics Marine Terminal.
This is the second episode in our series. Earlier, we said that the volumes of mostly light, sweet crude from the Permian and other U.S. shale plays being shipped overseas have taken off since the ban on most exports of U.S. crude was lifted in late 2015 — from ~600 Mb/d in 2016 to ~2.7 MMb/d in 2019, and ~2.9 MMb/d in the first two and a half months of 2020.
We also referred back to an blog last summer, where we discussed our estimate that, as of mid-2019, crude oil export capacity along the Gulf Coast stood at about 5 MMb/d — enough to meet current needs but well short of what would be needed if export volumes kept rising. Finally, we began our review of marine terminals along the Texas and Louisiana coasts with a look at the Seaway Freeport and Seaway Texas City facilities, both part of the broader Seaway Crude Pipeline (SCP) system, which is jointly owned by Enterprise Products Partners and Enbridge. We estimated Seaway Freeport’s export capacity at 200 Mb/d and Seaway Texas City’s at 300 Mb/d. Today, we turn our attention to two other large marine terminals in the Houston region.