Sunday, October 10, 2021

Curiouser And Curiouser -- October 10, 2021

FAA site continues to show airports operating normally (10:01 p.m. Central Time, Sunday evening, October 10, 2021) but I'm getting reports that flights are being canceled by multiple airlines at multiple airports. 

I'm not a conspiracy theorist but this is getting curiouser and curiouser. 

This story was first breaking on the blog / twitter earlier this morning.

This is more than just Southwest Airlines. 

American Airlines canceled flights from Las Vegas to DFW late this afternoon. First flight available from Las Vegas to DFW on any airline is now on Wednesday, three days from now.  

From a SWA (LUV) pilot. The interesting thing is that mainstream media seems to be minimizing the reporting and we're hearing nothing from the federal government or the FAA and yet flyers are starting to connect the dots. 

Follow American Airlines as this unfolds.

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Covid-19 Vaccine Update

The CDC reports the vaccination rollout data on a daily basis at this link. Often the data is reported very late in the day but almost never does the CDC miss a day. As of 10:15 p.m. CT the CDC has not posted the vaccination data for today.

**************************
Lego

A reader alerted me to this: the 9,090-piece Titanic. Link here.



Will We Hit $81 In The Morning -- Sunday Night -- October 10, 2021

WTI: now trading at $80.87, Sunday night, 10:32 p.m. CT. Link here

  • Brent crude: $83.62

GasBuddy: gas prices in Canada have now set a new all-time record high, breaking the old record of 142.9 c/L in 2008. Canadian gasoline is now 143.7 c/L. 

  • one US gallon = 3.78541 liters
  • 543.963 cents / US gallon
  • 5.44 Canadian dollars = $4.35 / US gallon

Cost of renewable energy: Europeans and Americans are beginning to see the results of depending on renewable energy. 

This will be fascinating to watch play out. The interesting thing: all this interest / fascination with $80-oil when we've been here before and analysts think it is yet to go higher.

Futures, Sunday night, 8:38 p.m. CT. Link here.

  • Dow: down 58 points; about 0.2% -- most likely doing better than S&P and Nasdaq due to oil;
  • S&P: down 17 points, about 0.4%;
  • Nasdaq: down 126 points, almost a percent;

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Covid-19 Therapy Randomized Trial

Finally.

A randomized trial sponsored by University of Minnesota, others. Link here.

The study is 14 days of taking the study drugs or placebo pills twice per day. All of these medications are FDA-approved for both adults and children.
You are randomly assigned to 1 of 6 possible treatment groups:

  • Metformin (*immediate release)
  • Ivermectin
  • Fluvoxamine
  • Fluvoxamine + Metformin*
  • Ivermectin + Metformin*
  • Placebo
*There is an FDA recall of metformin extended release, but not immediate release (the kind used in this study). The recall has to do with a substance in the water purification process, not the metformin itself. Ivermectin treatment is only for 3 days, not 14 days.

A Closer Look At The Whiting Satterthwaite Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- October 10, 2021

Note: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. I will correct them as I find them. 

Okay, this might take awhile, and it really gets deep into the weeds, so if you want to skip this one, go ahead and move on. But I had a lot of fun sorting this one out. 

The following Whiting well will come off the confidential list this week. Because it's still on the confidential list, I don't know where the horizontal leg will run. Obviously it's sister well on the same pad will also be coming off the confidential list soon.

But I figured it out -- where the horizontal legs will run.

First, look at the location and siting of these two wells, #36916 and #36917. They are sited north/south of each other suggesting the laterals will run west/east but when looking at the map it was hard to make sense out of it.

Graphic:

The well:

  • 36916, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35TFHU, Robinson Lake, early production:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20212483711450
7-202161703315
5-2021640
4-202162430

So, this was the problem. The scout ticket says they are "Robinson Lake" wells. Note the graphic: the Robinson Lake in the immediate area -- the wells run north / south, and right across the field line, those wells in the Sanish run in a westerly / easterly direction.

So, it would make sense that the two new Satterthwaite wells would run west / east also, but in the Robinson Lake? That doesn't make sense. First of all, Whiting is not going to run these horizontals across all those other north/south horizontals, and if they go south, they go into the Sanish oil field, not the Robinson Lake. In addition, Whiting doesn't "own" that particular area in the Robinson Lake. Another operator "owns" that area.

I made it more difficult than it needed to be. The two wells will be section line wells (2560-acre spacing) running along the Robinson Lake side of the Robinson Lake / Sanish field line, or along the same section line, on the Sanish side of the line.

But two wells? Yup. One is a middle Bakken well and the other, the one coming off the confidential list this week is a Three Forks well. It all fits.

Now, to confirm it. 

First, the names of the wells: Satterthwaite. It turns out there is an existing (very old) Satterthwaite well in the immediate area:

  • 19005, 1,289, Whiting, Satterthwaite 43-1H, Sanish, t2/11; cum 243K 9/21;

Now, it gets very interesting. 

If in fact, I'm correct (and I am, LOL), then if Whiting has fracked these two new Satterthwaite wells, then perhaps the older, actively producing wells in the area might show an increase in production (halo effect) or might be off line. 

So, let's check:

Recent production of that older #19005, Satterthwaite well:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202121123812253345561284277
BAKKEN7-202115838786457947138784
BAKKEN6-20211727902776904126652497168
BAKKEN5-2021299831982617962948794870
BAKKEN4-202159767974352847560287
BAKKEN3-2021486169681066336
BAKKEN2-2021286766575336035470
BAKKEN1-202131769101939310379669

Now for the other two wells in the immediate area and which will parallel the new Satterthwaite wells if I'm correct (and I am, LOL).

Look at the huge jump in production in the first well:

  • 22463, 1,119, Whiting, S-Bar 21-2H, Sanish, t7/12; cum 189K 8/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2021930473152459826547701884
BAKKEN7-2021311247012355209981203434208614
BAKKEN6-2021175852582813178587035682302
BAKKEN5-20212402737170614219
BAKKEN4-2021968344730410010
BAKKEN3-2021217252202
BAKKEN2-2021173503592835840551
BAKKEN1-2021319261179686157401512

Now, note the second well, which will also parallel the new Satterthwaite wells. This one is inactive / offline suggesting that a neighboring well has been recently fracked. Voila!!

  • 22464, IA/599, Whiting, S-Bar 21-2TFH, Sanish, t7/12; cum 120K 8/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210010000
BAKKEN6-20211619819712617510669
BAKKEN5-202110412000
BAKKEN4-202111170000
BAKKEN3-2021214212101
BAKKEN2-2021203033062242730234
BAKKEN1-2021316718624435760514

So, there it is, based on siting, names, which operator controls which existing wells, direction of existing horizontal walls, status of producing wells in the immediate area, and the halo effect, we know that the two new Satterthwaite wells coming off confidential list this next week are section line wells running along the Robinson Lake / Sanish field line. 

Ta da. 

Graphic: the likely location of the horizontal laterals of the new Satterthwaite wells. It's possible the laterals will actually be north of the Robinson Lake / Sanish oil field line. 


Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- October 10, 2021

The wells:
  • 37917, conf, Slawson, Whirlcat Federal 4-31-19TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 36916, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35TFHU, Robinson Lake, early production:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20212483711450
7-202161703315
5-2021640
4-202162430

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List this Next Week -- October 10, 2021

Monday, October 18, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.

Sunday, October 17, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.

Saturday, October 16, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.

Friday, October 15, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
None.

Thursday, October 14, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
37917, conf, Slawson, Whirlcat Federal 4-31-19TFH,

Wednesday, October 13, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 235 for the year:
None.

Tuesday, October 12, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 235 for the year:
36916, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35TFHU,

Monday, October 11, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 234 for the year:
None.

Sunday, October 10, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 234 for the year:
None.

Saturday, October 9, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 234 for the year:
None.

Notes From All Over -- Part 3 -- October 10, 2021

 UNP possibly posted earlier; can't remember. JPMorgan upgrades Union Pacific. Link here

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Ticker symbols, EVs, re-posting. I posted these a long time ago. I don't know if all are still "real":

  • RIDE: Lordstown Motors Corp

  • FSR: Fisker, Inc
  • FIII: Forum Merger III

  • GIK: Ligtning eMotors

  • HYLN: Hyliion Holdings Corp
  • CIIC: CIIG Merger Corp

  • NGA: Northern Genesis Acquisition Corp

  • XL: XL Fleet Corp
  • WKHS: Workhorse Group Inc

  • GOEV: Canoo
  • NKLA: Nikola Coproration 

  • ACTC: ArcLight Clean Transition Corp
  • TSLA: Tesla


Revenge of fossil fuel: in a world fighting climate change, demand for coal is hitting new records. Bloomberg Green. Later: about two hours after posting this, a reader sent me an interesting article over at ZeroHedge suggesting that atmospheric CO2 is about to soar. I'll comment on this later.

Halloween, Fauci: apparently after seeing tens of thousands of unmasked folks packed in football stadiums for the past month and no surge in Covid-19 cases -- in fact, the numbers are plummeting -- Dr Fauci has green-lighted "trick-or-treat" events for the youngsters. "Go out and have fun." Or something to that effect. They're all wearing masks, anyway. 

Bond, the movie: opening in the US not as good as hoped. Link here. And, here.

Comment: they blame some of the poor turnout to movie patrons' fear of Covid. That may or may not be true, and it may be comparing apples to oranges, but it's hard for me to reconcile empty movie theaters due to fear of Covid-19 and packed football stadiums. 

Which leads to another comment: whether vaccines work or don't work, if we didn't have the vaccines (think you Mr Trump and Operation Warpspeed) we would not be back to packed football stadiums. And, oh by the way, Dr Fauci greenlights trick-or-treating this Halloween.

Which leads to another comment: the surges are a fact of life, and the vaccines are not as effective as hoped (or as advertised). But I've seen no arguments that things would be much worse without the vaccines -- surges that were higher, longer lasting, and more frequent. I don't know, no one knows, but it's always interesting what questions aren't asked.

Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- October 10, 2021

See this post. I suggested that US gasoline demand foreshadowed the really, really surprising jobs report for September, 2021. 

Have things improved? Nope. See this. Gasoline demand is trending in the wrong direction. Demand destruction. GasBuddy data: US gasoline demand fell almost 2% to its lowest since the week of 5/30

It's the second straight weekly decline.

Interest rates: just like oil (where this is a sweet spot), there must be a sweet spot for interest rates. 

My hunch: sweet spot for US interest rates -- about four percent. 

Playing "devil's advocate," I'll even go so far as to say five percent is the sweet spot, though that might be a bit high, but looking at historical rates, it seems 5% would be just fine ... once the millennial generation "recovered" from the shock. Except as an investor in one single publicly traded bank, I have no dog in the banking industry. But, I do have a huge interest in personal whole life insurance, and like banks, life insurance companies love higher interest rates. The past few years have been really, really tough for life insurance companies but things are starting to look much better. Since I have a dog in that right, I'm more than content with a four percent interest rate which we won't see for several years, if ever.

And, yes, I am aware that those with good credit ratings will get better rates on personal loans.

How interest rate changes affect the profitability of banking (and insurance). Link here.

NFL: we're gonna see some incredible television ratings this weekend.

Broken record: I apologize, but I"m going to say it again. This is a trifecta:

  • least expensive cable service you can find, plus
  • Hulu, plus
  • Amazon fire stick

And, of course, an iPad Pro.

Southwest Airlines -- Huge Story Breaking -- October 10, 2021

Updates

October 11, 2021: in general, the panelists on "Fast Money" don't buy Southwest Airlines' story; one panelist buys the LUV story hook, line, and sinker. I think he's a sucker. Not even the holidays; it was a ho-hum weekend. Absolutely no weather problems according to the FAA (yes I am aware of the thunderstorms that rolled through the midwest Saturday night but nothing out of the ordinary). As Ms Finerman said, "something doesn't add up." I agree completely. Something doesn't add up. The CEO knows exactly how this played out and is not talking.  

October 11, 2021: Phil LeBeau, CNBC, is such a shill / took for the transportation sector. Today he is buying into the Southwest Airlines story: that this was due to weather. He said, "remember, the other airlines are hub-and-spoke models, whereas SWA (LUV) is a point-to-point model. It takes only a few airports to shutdown to cause problems for SWA and ripple through the entire system." 

First, I followed the FAA site throughout the weekend -- not one airport reported weather-related problems. In addition, if it only takes a handful of airports to cause the problem SWA experienced this weekend (and, by the way, it is continuing), this seems to be a really, really bad business model, and we have rarely seen it (if ever) before. On top of that, hurricane season, most recently: quickly -- give me one example when SWA shut down to this extent during any hurricane? Hint: there is no example, because it didn't happen. Any hurricane this past week / past weekend SWA (LUV) exists? Nope, none.

11:46 a.m. CT: FAA continues to say no delays anywhere in the USA. But the Southwest Airlines cancellations continue to increase:

10:16 a.m. CT: FAA says no flight delays at any airports anywhere in USA. Link here. Specifically, the following are all green (as is the rest of the country): MCO (Orlando), TPA, FLL (Fort Lauderdale), MIA.

Original Post

It started with a tweet, but after one minute the tweet was deleted. I failed to take a screenshot of the tweet; I was fact-checking the tweet and by the time I returned to twitter, the tweet was deleted. 

I was wrong: here's the link. But I think the tweet has been deleted; not sure. Doesn't matter.

The company's statements are completely suspect.

The links, as fast as I can post them, in the order I found them:

Factually, it appears if you have a flight scheduled on LUV today/Monday you aren't going to make it.

Fake news: the company's statement that is has to with ATC issues and weather seems patently false. I don't know. But it appears the pilots are calling in sick (with the flu -- LOL).

Here's what is most likely going on:

And all this time I thought LUV was better than Spirit Airlines. 

By the way, there are indications this is becoming a problem for other airlines as well. My evidence is anecdotal so won't report it but I bet I'm correct. 

If correct, this will be the headline story Monday morning on CNBC. My hunch: Phil LeBeau is all over it.

Later: go to twitter, search "Southwest Airlines."

Link here.

This should be a non-problem. Request an exemption based on religion. If it works for college football, for heaven's sake, it will work for the airlines.

The story is as chaotic as the flight disruptions. There are stories that it is the ATC in Jacksonville, FL, causing the problem. 

My hunch: "uncoordinated" action between ATC and LUV at Jacksonville, FL. Disruption at one "hub" can cause problems throughout the system. If it's ATC, Ronald Reagan would have known how to handle the problem. One wonders if Resident Biden is yet aware of the problem.

One tweet: all flights into Florida have been canceled. 

Not sure where screenshot was taken, but "only canceled flights are Southwest Air. This is NOT related to ATC or weather."

Another tweet: "FAA unaware of any flight disruptions of any significance."

Thirteen hours ago: several Southwest Airline flights flying into Las Vegas this weekend have been canceled."

Just Getting Started -- Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- Sunday -- October 10, 2021

NFL: Jets / Falcons playing in London today. Game starts at 8:30 a.m. CT if I have the time zone times correct. 

  • Dallas/Giants: late afternoon game
  • SNF: Chiefs/Bills

NASCAR: third of three, round of 12, 1:00 p.m. Charlotte Motor Speedway; four will be cut before moving to round of eight -- Texas, Kansas, Martinsville. Bottom four today: Joey Logano, Keselowski, Christopher Bell, and Kevin Harvick. Five through eight: Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, William Byron; 

Later: advance to group of eight:

  • 1 - Kyle Larson
  • 2 - Denny Hamlin
  • 3 - Truex, Jr
  • 4 - Ryan Blaney
  • 5 -- Kyle Busch
  • 6 - Chase Elliott
  • 7 - Joey Logano 
  • 8 - Brad Keselowski

Fun! There is not a single sad person in this video.

Reminder: Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) became two companies June 30 when the refining and marketing assets of the business, commonly referred to as downstream, were spun off into Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC), a separately owned and operated enterprise.

Dividends, oil, and the market: link here. Five companies mentioned. I had forgotten one of the five. In case the link break (link rot), the five: CVX, Valero, Marathon Petroleum, Enbridge, and Suncor.

  • factoid: Suncor's assets include 50% of all western Canadian crude oil storage

Exciting Wells -- Calendar Year 2021

December, 2021

November, 2021

October, 2021 -- start with week 40

September, 2021

August, 2021

June, 2021 / July 2021

May, 2021

April, 2021

March, 2021

February, 2021

January, 2021

How Is This Not A Headline Story Everywhere? October 10, 2021

College football: Unranked Texas A&M -- the Aggies -- beat #1 Alabama.

Putin screws Europe: EU shocked to learn Russia stretching the truth, link here.


Canadian pipelines
: the other day I mentioned that eastern Canada imports oil because it does not have a pipeline from its prolific western Canadian oil fields. A reader reminded me that Canadians prefer CBR to pipeline: the Lac-M├ęgantic rail disaster. 

Old news: Tesla raises Model 3 and Model Y prices again, making Cybertruck its cheapest model.
Model 3: $2,000 increase for Model 3 Standard Range Place; now $42,000 ... but did  you all catch this. I completely missed it but a reader caught it and sent it my way:

Interesting Elon comment at the Tesla Annual Meeting. 
EV penetration will approximately double current grid demand. 
Converting heating to electricity will make it a triple.

Is anyone paying attention:

EV penetration will approximately double current grid demand. Converting heating to electricity will make it a triple.