Southwest Airlines -- Huge Story Breaking -- October 10, 2021

Another SWA Debacle

Now, over Christmas, 2022: link here.

 Updates to Original Post

October 11, 2021: in general, the panelists on "Fast Money" don't buy Southwest Airlines' story; one panelist buys the LUV story hook, line, and sinker. I think he's a sucker. Not even the holidays; it was a ho-hum weekend. Absolutely no weather problems according to the FAA (yes I am aware of the thunderstorms that rolled through the midwest Saturday night but nothing out of the ordinary). As Ms Finerman said, "something doesn't add up." I agree completely. Something doesn't add up. The CEO knows exactly how this played out and is not talking.  

October 11, 2021: Phil LeBeau, CNBC, is such a shill / took for the transportation sector. Today he is buying into the Southwest Airlines story: that this was due to weather. He said, "remember, the other airlines are hub-and-spoke models, whereas SWA (LUV) is a point-to-point model. It takes only a few airports to shutdown to cause problems for SWA and ripple through the entire system." 

First, I followed the FAA site throughout the weekend -- not one airport reported weather-related problems. In addition, if it only takes a handful of airports to cause the problem SWA experienced this weekend (and, by the way, it is continuing), this seems to be a really, really bad business model, and we have rarely seen it (if ever) before. On top of that, hurricane season, most recently: quickly -- give me one example when SWA shut down to this extent during any hurricane? Hint: there is no example, because it didn't happen. Any hurricane this past week / past weekend SWA (LUV) exists? Nope, none.

11:46 a.m. CT: FAA continues to say no delays anywhere in the USA. But the Southwest Airlines cancellations continue to increase:

• dozens reported out of Midway, Chicago;
• headline story over at USA Today;
• as far away as Ohio;

10:16 a.m. CT: FAA says no flight delays at any airports anywhere in USA. Link here. Specifically, the following are all green (as is the rest of the country): MCO (Orlando), TPA, FLL (Fort Lauderdale), MIA.

Original Post

It started with a tweet, but after one minute the tweet was deleted. I failed to take a screenshot of the tweet; I was fact-checking the tweet and by the time I returned to twitter, the tweet was deleted. 

I was wrong: here's the link. But I think the tweet has been deleted; not sure. Doesn't matter.

The company's statements are completely suspect.

The links, as fast as I can post them, in the order I found them:

• LUV mandates vaccines to comply with Biden's directives.
• CNBC: LUV cancels 1,000 more flights as disruptions mount.
• AZCentral: LUV cancels and delays hundreds of flights nationwide: ATC and weather issues.
• 9News: LUV cancels dozens of flights at DIA, across the country: ATC and weather issues.

Factually, it appears if you have a flight scheduled on LUV today/Monday you aren't going to make it.

Fake news: the company's statement that is has to with ATC issues and weather seems patently false. I don't know. But it appears the pilots are calling in sick (with the flu -- LOL).

Here's what is most likely going on:

• LUV's suspicious operational meltdown. 

And all this time I thought LUV was better than Spirit Airlines. 

By the way, there are indications this is becoming a problem for other airlines as well. My evidence is anecdotal so won't report it but I bet I'm correct. 

If correct, this will be the headline story Monday morning on CNBC. My hunch: Phil LeBeau is all over it.

Later: go to twitter, search "Southwest Airlines."

Link here.

This should be a non-problem. Request an exemption based on religion. If it works for college football, for heaven's sake, it will work for the airlines.

The story is as chaotic as the flight disruptions. There are stories that it is the ATC in Jacksonville, FL, causing the problem. 

My hunch: "uncoordinated" action between ATC and LUV at Jacksonville, FL. Disruption at one "hub" can cause problems throughout the system. If it's ATC, Ronald Reagan would have known how to handle the problem. One wonders if Resident Biden is yet aware of the problem.

One tweet: all flights into Florida have been canceled. 

Not sure where screenshot was taken, but "only canceled flights are Southwest Air. This is NOT related to ATC or weather."

Another tweet: "FAA unaware of any flight disruptions of any significance."

Thirteen hours ago: several Southwest Airline flights flying into Las Vegas this weekend have been canceled."