Saturday, March 14, 2026

The Strait Is Open -- Polymarket - 5:00 p.m. CT -- March 14, 2026

Locator: 50226EPICFURY.

March 14, 2026, 5:00 p.m.:

This is what can be achieved when the president has credibility. Apparently just the thought that Trump might take Kharg Island with 2,500 US Marines was enough to bring Iran to their senses. 

This could be an interesting turn of events for the Sunday morning news shows if reported accurately that Iran has opened the strait to all vessels other than American or Israeli: 

  • two days ago: Iran doubles down on closing the strait.
  • yesterday: Iran says vessels paying in Chinese currency will have safe passages
  • early today: Iran says Indian vessels will have safe passage through the strait
  • later today: Iran says all vessels except those of Israel and America have safe passage though the strait.

The new supreme leader, the son of the former supreme leader was said to be more "hardline" than his father and just days earlier double-downed keeping the strait closed, while increasing attacks on all countries in the region. All of a sudden -- a 180-degree turn -- announcing the strait is open, suggests that the new supreme leader is greatly compromised one way or another. This was completely unexpected -- an announcement by the Iranians that the strait is now open.

This is absolutely fascinating.  

Bashur Air Base -- March 14, 2026

Locator: 50225BASHUR.

Wiki


 

The US Marines -- March 14, 2026

Locator: 50224KHARG.

Updates

March 14, 2026:

  • two days ago, Iran doubled down, saying as long as the US and Israel continued bombing, Iran would keep the strait closed;
  • yesterday: Iran said that countries who paid in Chinese currency would be allowed to transit the strait;
  • today: Iran said that Indians vessels would be allowed to transit the strait.

Anyone noticing a trend here. I still maintain that back-channel diplomacy, Iran is taking the threat of an international peace force to take control of Kharg Island is a very real possibility. Meanwhile, the Kurds are an hour away from Tehran.

By the way: mines? Trump said the Iranians were not laying mines in the strait. I don't know, but I do know that mines can't tell the difference between those vessels that pay in Chinese currency and those that don't; and, can't tell Indian vessels from non-Indian vessels. 

And, oh, by the way, the Houthis? Where are they? Where have they been?

Original Post 

Link here. Be sure to read the thread. 


Has anyone asked the question why any Arab country or member of GCC hasn't politely asked the US to declare victory and leave?  Re-posting:

********************************
Strait Security

My hunch: behind the scenes, the US diplomatic team is talking with Qatar, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia about the need for maintaining security in the strait. It's considered "international waters" by the UN and the UN is tasked with keeping the strait safe, secure and open. 

My hunch: someone in the Mideast will step up to the task, most likely Saudi Arabia. It would be Qatar, but Qatar is simply too small and, oh, by the way, that's where the Hamas leadership resides in comfort. So, it will be Saudi Arabia with a young prince, eager to do these things, who will step up to the task -- but like William Shakespeare, the Saudi prince will simply be the factotum, the front man. The default organization: the Gulf Cooperation Council.

The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, also known as the Gulf Cooperation Council, is a regional, intergovernmental, political, and economic union and military alliance comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.[

The council's main headquarters is located in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia.The Charter of the GCC was signed on 25 May 1981, formally establishing the institution. 

All current member states are monarchies, including three constitutional monarchies (Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain), two absolute monarchies (Saudi Arabia and Oman), and one federal monarchy (the United Arab Emirates, which is composed of seven member states, each of which is an absolute monarchy with its own emir). 

There have been discussions regarding the future membership of Jordan, Morocco, and Yemen. Iraq is the only Gulf Arab state that is not a GCC member.

Iran is not a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) primarily because the organization was established in 1981, following the 1979 Iranian Revolution, as a security and political bloc of Arab monarchies designed specifically to counter Iran’s regional influence and ideological expansion. Fundamental ideological, geopolitical, and security differences divide them.

This is also one of the reasons that the Arab countries have not politely asked the US to declare victory and go home. 

The GCC has long wanted to see Iran answer for its misdeeds, and never wants Iran to have nuclear weapons. They now know they have been right since 1979.

Now that Iran has used the "nuclear option" to close the strait, the GCC is more united than ever. 

Remember the deals that were made between the US and Saudi Arabia after the CHIPS Act and Trump's overtures; we could very well see the same thing on the economic and political front with regard to the strait. 

Even more interesting, China is 1000% in support of maintaining a safe, secure, and open strait. 

Russia, not so much, but will play along to get along now that's it's tied down in Ukraine.  

Along with Texas, Saudi may ultimately be another winner of this war. 

AI Market Share -- March 14, 2026

Locator: 50223AI.

Link here

Venture Global -- RBN Energy -- One Year Ago -- Re-Posting -- March 14, 2026

Locator: 50222VG.

Compare this chart with the chart at the bottom of the blog.

*******************************
Re-Posting

This was from a year ago, January 29, 2025, link here

Locator: 48428RBNVG.

RBN Energy: assessing Venture Global's assets in the wake of its $1.75 billion IPO. Archived.

Venture Global put U.S. LNG on center stage after going public on January 24. The company, now listed as VG on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), launched one of the largest initial public offerings (IPO) in U.S. energy history. The IPO shares were priced at $25 each, raising $1.75 billion but valuing the company at $60 billion, a significant drop from the company’s initial target of up to $110 billion. While Venture Global was able to capitalize on some truly fantastic timing, going public just as President Trump took office and lifted the export permit ban, the market remains cautious about LNG and the energy sector. While Trump will certainly smooth the path at least somewhat to new LNG buildout, lawsuits and regulatory hurdles won’t simply disappear overnight. In addition to the general regulatory uncertainty facing the industry, there is also the matter of Venture Global’s contentious relationship with its original customers: Shell, BP and others have brought arbitration cases against the company that have yet to be resolved. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at Venture Global, its assets and what its IPO says about U.S. LNG. 

Venture Global is one of the largest players in U.S. LNG, with the 10-MMtpa (1.32 Bcf/d) Calcasieu Pass operational, although still technically commissioning (more on that shortly); the 20-MMtpa (2.65 Bcf/d) Plaquemines LNG under construction or commissioning now; CP2 in the late stages of development and nearing a final investment decision (FID); and two more speculative projects to pursue after CP2. Between Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines, the company will own and operate 30 MMtpa (4 Bcf/d) by the end of 2027, leaving it second to only Cheniere Energy when it comes to U.S. LNG output (see King Creole for more on the big three players in U.S. LNG). And with more projects in the queue, Venture Global is obviously shooting for Cheniere’s crown. All of Venture Global’s LNG projects use midscale modular technology rather than traditional large-scale trains, promising investors shorter construction timelines and requiring less startup capital to build these smaller, factory-fabricated, but scalable units.

Venture Global took FID on its first U.S. LNG terminal, Calcasieu Pass, in August 2019, although the project had been under construction since February of that year. The terminal has 18 mini trains, grouped into nine blocks, for a total nameplate capacity of 10 MMtpa (1.32 Bcf/d) and an expected peak capacity of 12.4 MMtpa (1.64 Bcf/d). Nameplate capacity is what is guaranteed by the design of the project by the engineering partners, but all LNG terminals have the ability to produce above that level. 

The Real Winner Of This War? Texas -- March 14, 2026

Locator: 50221QATAR.

Link here

At one time three countries could be counted on to keep their LNG promises: Qatar, the US, and Australia.

Qatar? No more. And once those contracts are signed it's hard to make changes, even if one has months to prepare.

Qatar? No more.

For decades, this geography -- that narrow Strait of Hormuz controlled by Iran, was considered a manageable risk, because Qatar had cultivated a reputation for perfect reliability. 

They say Russia is the real winner of this more recent Gulf / Mideast war. Nope, the real winner is Texas. And the company? Venture Global. 

********************************
Strait Security

My hunch: behind the scenes, the US diplomatic team is talking with Qatar, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia about the need for maintaining security in the strait. It's considered "international waters" by the UN and the UN is tasked with keeping the strait safe, secure and open. 

My hunch: someone in the Mideast will step up to the task, most likely Saudi Arabia. It would be Qatar, but Qatar is simply too small and, oh, by the way, that's where the Hamas leadership resides in comfort. So, it will be Saudi Arabia with a young prince, eager to do these things, who will step up to the task -- but like William Shakespeare, the Saudi prince will simply be the factotum, the front man. The default organization: the Gulf Cooperation Council.

The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, also known as the Gulf Cooperation Council, is a regional, intergovernmental, political, and economic union and military alliance comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.[

The council's main headquarters is located in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia.The Charter of the GCC was signed on 25 May 1981, formally establishing the institution. 

All current member states are monarchies, including three constitutional monarchies (Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain), two absolute monarchies (Saudi Arabia and Oman), and one federal monarchy (the United Arab Emirates, which is composed of seven member states, each of which is an absolute monarchy with its own emir). 

There have been discussions regarding the future membership of Jordan, Morocco, and Yemen. Iraq is the only Gulf Arab state that is not a GCC member.

Iran is not a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) primarily because the organization was established in 1981, following the 1979 Iranian Revolution, as a security and political bloc of Arab monarchies designed specifically to counter Iran’s regional influence and ideological expansion. Fundamental ideological, geopolitical, and security differences divide them.

This is also one of the reasons that the Arab countries have not politely asked the US to declare victory and go home. 

The GCC has long wanted to see Iran answer for its misdeeds, and never wants Iran to have nuclear weapons. They now know they have been right since 1979.

Now that Iran has used the "nuclear option" to close the strait, the GCC is more united than ever. 

Remember the deals that were made between the US and Saudi Arabia after the CHIPS Act and Trump's overtures; we could very well see the same thing on the economic and political front with regard to the strait. 

Even more interesting, China is 1000% in support of maintaining a safe, secure, and open strait. 

Russia, not so much, but will play along to get along now that's it's tied down in Ukraine.  

Along with Texas, Saudi may ultimately be another winner of this war.  

See also this link: the Kurds

Chip Count -- March 14, 2026

Locator: 50220CHIPS.

Chips and chip counts are tracked here

Link here

CPUs:

GPUs

The Midnight Hour -- March 13 - March 14, 2026

Locator: 50219ARCHIVES.

Viral: with all of the following happening in the last 24 hours, what goes viral? 

A tweet from a multi-millionaire former NFL player who is obsessed over boiler-plate restaurant tip user interfaces, even though one can simply tap "continue" and move on. 

Me: my wife and I expect to pay $50 for a sit-down lunch at a nice restaurant. 

Our meal costs $29 - $31 which I pay by credit card. Either my wife or I leave a $20 tip in cash. So, $50 for lunch, pretty much what we've paid for years. Generally once / week. 
When we dine separately, which is most of the time I have no idea what my wife orders / tips. Me? Breakfast, McDonald's $5.41. That's it. Easy-peasy, as one of my middle-school teachers used to say. 
Dinner: I can't remember the last time we went to a restaurant for dinner (the evening meal). Way too expensive and both my wife and I love to cook.

******************************
Now, News And Commentary

Friday/Saturday overnight. By Monday we may be living in a new world -- a world never imagined.  

1. Kharg Island. Under serious consideration / discussion: US Marines. From whom does US need buy-in? Xi. Once you understand this, everything begins to fall into place. It becomes a small step to take when Xi-Trump discuss Taiwan at the end of the month.

2.  Chip count: after months of no change over at wiki, we now have two new entries. Huge. Will discuss later. First step: a pledge to adhere to "Hong Kong 2" principles. As one starts to go down this road, can one see Xi-Putin-Trump the new Churchill-Stalin-FDR? How far has Britain fallen: can't even send one ship to the Mideast -- not because it doesn't want to, because it can't. Trump: most transactional president ever? One word: audacious. Thank you, Mr Obama.

3. California off-shore oil: deep in the weeds, wonky, and geeky. Executive order signed March 13, 2026, Friday, less than 24 hours ago,  Insertion of four new words changes everything. California. Sable. 9th Circuit will step in; put a hold on it. Slip opinion a must read. Who is T. Elliot Gaiser?

4. Portfolio: I haven't paid attention to the market since February 28, 2026, nor have I watched CNBC since then, with some very minor exceptions in early March. But yesterday, after a note from a reader, I have checked a few tickers. I was pleasantly surprised. To say the least. 

5. Epstein Files: absolutely unnecessary to bring this up now, but has this story just gone away? 

6. Qatar: the house of cards finally fell. Link here.

7. Natural gas -- rather, LNG exports: Venture Global on steroids.  

8. Market commentary -- ticker -- daily summary: brand new. 

I just noticed this and it's only going to get better. Every day I wish I could get a bulleted summary on any ticker in which I was interested. Google AI now has it. Amazing. Google search the ticker, make sure you have selected "All" and not "News" at the top, and near the top, below the graph, you will see a bulleted summary of that ticker for the day. Amazing. Check out "MU" now, for example. Google doesn't do it 100% of the time, but I haven't found an exception yet. Still limited, but going to get much, much better. 

9.  AI regs: incredibly good news. Entirely unexpected. US pulled highly contentious draft regulations on chip exports. I don't understand it yet; need time to explore.

10.  Apple: absolutely stunning what MacBook Neo is doing. Yesterday, it was reported that the MacBook Neo is Amazon is number 1 on the Amazon best seller list. Under "Computers and Accessories. Link here.

  • #1: 2026 MacBook Neo
  • #10: 2025 MacBook Pro M5 14.2-inch -- absolutely top-of-the-line for Apple
  • #11: 2025 MacBook Air M4 15-inch
  • #13: MacBook Pro 14-inch privacy screen
  • #15: 2025 MacBook Air M4 13-inch 
  • #17: 2026 MacBook Air 13-inch
  • #22: all years MacBook Air Pro charger
  • #24: MacBook Air M2, M3, M4 13.6 / 13-inch privacy screen
  • #26: 2026 MacBook Air M5 15-inch
  • Dell? Hits the list at #28 -- a Dell Laptop Charger
  • Intel? Hits the list at #33 -- HP 14 Laptop, Intel Celeron
  • Dell? Hits the list at #71 -- a Dell 15 Laptop 15.6 FHD Intel Core 3 (8GB DRAM, 512 GB SSD)

11. TSA: oh, yes, these folks still aren't getting paid. Among the least financially insecure, hardest working Americans and the multi-millionaire grey-haired men and women (with colored hair) in DC don't seem concerned. 

12. Biggest worry: US elementary school or Jewish synagogue viciously attacked. Remember Uvalde?  

13. AI: remember all the crap Apple took because it "failed" at AI first time around. It appears AI is not as easy as folks think. Exhibits A, B, C, and D:

  • META says it may have to partner with Google (Gemini); META's AI not meeting Mark's standards, and his standards are pretty low;
  • Elon Musk (xAI / Grok) says he's starting starting over; doesn't like current version of Grok, now a subsidiary of SpaceX; faces scrutiny over safety, deepfakes, and intense development pressure.
  • META (again): could cut 20% of company's entire workforce to pay for AI
  • MSFT: if you want to see real issues, AI prompt -- Microsoft news with issues with its AI
    • confidential data exposure (February 2026) -- 365 Copilot Chat -- could be Achilles heel for Copilot
    • AI "recall" feature delays -- huge concerns regarding privacy, leading to delays and re-evaluation
    • lawsuit over safety (March 2026) -- GPT-4o
    • forced AI backlash: "every class of user" has expressed frustration with the "AI everywhere" approach, particulalry the forced integration of Copilot into Windows.