Sunday, May 4, 2025

This May Be The Most Interesting Blog On Supercomputers This Week -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48588TECH.

An exaflop = a billion billion calculations per second.

Updates

Later, 9:05 p.m. CT

This is almost laughable. El Capitan took years to "construct," perhaps a decade, and has 44,544 GPUs (AMD, by the way) and is said by Wiki to be the largest supercomputer in the world.

Meanwhile, Wiki does not even mention Colossus among the largest supercomputers in the world: Colossus was built in 121 days; and is designed to max out at 1,000,000 GPUs. It went operational at 100,000 GPUs (Nvidia); and since then has reached 200,000 GPUs on its way to one million. And yet Wiki does not mention Colossus on its list of largest supercomputers. At least as far as I recollect.

Original Post

I'm disappointed. AI did not answer this question for me. I answered it for myself after a bit of work, but not much.

This is the question: what is the world's fastest / biggest / largest supercomputer? Elon Musk said his Colossus in Memphis, Tennessee, is the largest (which generally correlates to "fastest").

But yet Wiki has recently given the title to the largest supercomputer to El Capitan, pushing former #1, Frontier, to #2.

So, what is it? Who's right? Wiki or Elon Musk?

1. First data point: number of GPUs:

  • El Capitan: 44,544 GPUs
    • each computer node in the system contains four (4) AMD Instinct MI300A APUs, and each APU is equipped with six (6) XCD (eXtreme Compute Die) that serve as GPUs.
  • Colossus: 200,000 GPUs
    • began operating with 100,000 GPUs; now has 200,000 GPUs;
    • expandable to one million GPUs which Elon Musk says he will do
  • bragging rights? Elon Musk's Colossus

2. Time to manufacture these supercomputers (has nothing to do with the question, but is an important data point -- there's another metric that is not being tracked, that might be even more important, but more on that later):

  • El Capitan / Frontier: took "several" years; perhaps as much as a decade all things considered.
  • Colossus: 121 days

3. Speed:

  • El Capitan, theoretical speed: 2.746 Exaflops
  • Colossus, theoretical speed: 6 Exaflops (more than twice as fast) and that's with 100,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs. 
    • Colossus, as noted, now has twice that many Nvidia H100 GPUs, suggesting Elon Musk's Colossus might have a theoretical top speed of greater than 10 Exaflops or nearly four times or maybe even five times what El Capitan can achieve.

Link here.

If John Cook's data is correct, and my analysis is not faulty, it begs the question: why is Wiki dragging its feet? Why is Wiki not calling "it" for Elon Musk?

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The Book Page

Time to re-read Thomas Merton's story of a Hindu monk in Merton's autobiography, The Seven Storey Mountain: An Autobiography of Faith

At any rate, the story is part of a bigger story of how a picture of a Hindu monk, by the name of Jagad-Bondhu ended up on the door of of a dormitory room at Columbia University back in the late 1930s. Besides being a great story, it's incredibly good writing.

The writing reminded me vaguely of Hunter S. Thompson, but different genres, different intensity.

Saudi Update -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48587SAUDI.

Before we get started, I have not enjoyed watching NBA basketball for the last few years, but I have to admit, I'm really enjoying the playoff series this year. I guess I last enjoyed NBA basketball during the Phil Jackson era in Chicago and Gregg Popovich during the "twin towers" era. 

Okay, back to oil.

Flashback: Saudi tried this before. It was a trillion-dollar mistake. Link here

Chart of the day -- Javier Blas -- last week.

Link here.

Ivanpah -- Update -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48586SOLAR.

This was reported back on February 5, 2025, but for some reason was in the news again this past week. Perhaps it was the Andy Hall article published in AS two days ago. Ivanpah really was an environmental disaster. Remember when CLR was fined for one dead migratory bird found in a waste oil pit? And I think they could have made it a criminal offense, but I've long since forgotten. Don't even get me started.

Beyond technical hurdles, Ivanpah also faced significant environmental concerns. While solar energy is generally considered clean, the plant’s intense light reflection created an unexpected hazard for wildlife. The glare from the mirrors attracted insects, which in turn drew birds into the concentrated solar beams, leading to thousands of avian fatalities annually.
Conservationists labeled Ivanpah a death trap for birds, with reports estimating that up to 6,000 birds per year were fatally scorched by the facility’s powerful solar flux.
However, the final blow to Ivanpah wasn’t its engineering or environmental impact—it was the rapid evolution of the solar market.
The rise of photovoltaic solar panels, which are cheaper to install and maintain, made Ivanpah’s solar thermal technology economically uncompetitive. Additionally, advancements in energy storage allowed photovoltaic systems to generate power even at night, eliminating one of Ivanpah’s key advantages.
As a result, Ivanpah is scheduled to shut down in 2026, marking the end of an ambitious but ultimately unsustainable project. Plans are already underway to develop new solar initiatives in the area, including the construction of a solar park to replace the facility.

Ivanpah to close two of three units well ahead of schedule.

For more on Ivanpah, search for "Ivanpah" on the blog. IYKYK.

This was from February 5, 2025:

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Solar

Ivanpah: not on my bingo card today. Scheduled to close in 2039 -- about fifteen years from now-- two of three solar farms are to be closed immediately and the operator is looking to close the third of three units. 

And this has nothing to do with any executive order by Trump. 

Even the Sierra Club didn't like this project. Abject failure. Solar farms are expected to last forever -- after all, they're cheap and the fuel source is free. Oil wells last longer than this. My hunch: the depreciation / tax credits expired. Time to initiate a new farm with new depreciation, tax credits, tax incentives, subsidies from US taxpayers. .

GPD -- Why This Doesn't Feel Like A Recession -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48585GDP.

Updates

May 4, 2025: probably the best explanation, link here. The unprecedented surge in imports was due to US importers anticipating huge jump in tariffs. If importers misplayed this, we could see a lot of summer discounting, which could extend into the holiday season. But there's a bigger story here: this is why "this doesn't feel a depression."

 Original Post

1Q25: GDP, first read -- a minus 0.3%. GDPNow had been trending toward a minus 2.7%.

If the import data comes in better than expected, the 1Q25 could turn out to be positive. 

GDPNow has 2Q25 at a positive 1.1%.

Back to the import data:

First-quarter gross domestic product data released earlier this week showed that the U.S. economy deflated suddenly at the start of this year.
The negative reading might turn out to be more of a mathematical mirage rather than the beginning of a recession
Inflation-adjusted GDP declined at an annualized rate of 0.3% (see above) during the first quarter.
The historic 41% surge in imports during the first quarter ahead of expected tariffs subtracted 5 percentage points from growth. Those imports should show up somewhere else, either in inventories, consumer spending, or investment

We'll see. But all of a sudden, all that talk of a recession is less worrisome. 

By the way, historically, it took two quarters of negative growth to define a recession. All of a sudden, folks are suggesting a single quarter of barely negative growth is now defined as a recession. 

Just North Of Dallas -- Something To Think About -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48584TEXAS.

PGA: the CJ Cup Byron Nelson Tournament -- McKinney, Texas. 

  • CJ: a South Korean conglomerate. A spin-off from Samsug in 1993. It is estimated that Koreans make up 13% of the McKinney, Texas, population -- just north of Dallas. 
    • CJ: four core portfolios, including food and food service; and, biotechnology.
      • Bibigo: the CJ food subsidiary; noted for its dumplings

Automobiles, "ten least reliable," thought the article compares twelve vehicles -- Consumer Reports, December 5, 2024, link here. I've seen this list pretty much duplicated by other sources unrelated to Consumer Reports: from (best) worst to (worst) worst:

  • Volkswagen ID.4: EV; starts at $40K
  • Genesis G70; ICE; starts at under $30K
  • Ford F-150 Lightning: EV; starting around $70K
  • Jeep Wrangler: ICE; easily gets to $100K
  • Nissan Frontier: ICE; the Pro can set you back $60K
  • Jeep Grand Cherokee: ICE; $40K range, but perhaps as low as $36K
  • Jeep Grand Cherokee L: ICE; "L" for longer model; ICE; starting at $40K
  • Ford Escape Hybrid: EV; starts around $33K
  • Rivian R1T: EV; $75K but likely will pay closer to $100K
  • Chevrolet Colorado: ICE; starts at $34 but quickly gets up to $65K
  • GM Canyon: ICE; starts at $40K; easily trending toward $55K; the priciest starts at $67K
  • Ford F-150 Hybrid: EV; the Platinum lists at $85K but the STX lists at $46K

So:

  • 5 of the 12 are EVs of some sort, including fake EVs
  • 3 of the 12 are Fords, all three are EVs
  • 3 of the 12 are Jeeps of some sort, all three ICE; which, I suppose represent 90% of 2025 Jeeps;
  • Rivian made the list

Telsa did not make the list.

Also, not making the list

  • Honda
  • Subaru
  • Hyundai
  • Kia

*********************************
It's Not The Cost Of A Single Stamp That Matters,
It's Your Total Budget For Postage (USPS, USP, FedEx, DHL, Amazon)

Postage stamps: link here. When it comes to postage, this is absolutely the worst metric to track.

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Personal: MPG -- Our 2005 Chrysler Minivan

Apple -- AAPL -- Warren Buffett -- BRK -- Ka-Ching -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48583AAPL.

I find this "sad."

Link here.

From the linked article:

Warren Buffett spent six decades building Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B 1.80%increase; green up pointing triangle. But it was Apple’s

CEO, he said, who delivered the conglomerate its biggest windfall.

“I’m somewhat embarrassed to say Tim Cook has made Berkshire a lot more money than I’ve ever made,” Buffett said Saturday at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting in Omaha, Neb. He closed the meeting with the surprise announcement that he is ready to step down.

The parting tip of the hat to Cook was classic Buffett—a nod to the humbling realities of the investing business and a reminder of the value of being willing to change one’s mind.

Buffett wasn’t big on technology bets in 2016, when he first bought shares in Apple. He and his investing partner, Charlie Munger, had generally stayed away from tech stocks, saying the two didn’t fully understand the fast-changing industry.

Apple turned out to be his greatest investment.

A Berkshire investment manager bought a small stake in the iPhone maker in 2016, nine years after its introduction. Around that time, Buffett asked another investment manager to find an S&P 500 stock that met three criteria.

Buffett wanted a company with a reasonably cheap price/earnings multiple of no more than 15, based on the next 12 months’ projected earnings, The Wall Street Journal previously reported. Berkshire managers had to be at least 90% sure that the stock would generate higher earnings over the next five years. And he wanted Berkshire to be at least 50% confident that the company would grow a minimum of 7% annually for at least five years.

The manager’s research pointed to Apple.

US LNG Export Terminals -- Eleven -- Graphic Update -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48582GP.

Updates

May 14, 2025: Golden Pass update. Link here.

Golden Pass #LNG timing update.

"We [Qatar] own 70% of that. But these projects take time to actually deliver and we expect first LNG to come by the end of this year (2025) and hopefully to inaugurate officially the project in the 1st qt of 26,"  Qatari Energy Minister.
.

This is for Train 1 of 0.68 bcf/d. No ETA for Train 2 and Train 3 start.

Original Post 

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Easter 2025

Golden Pass -- Update -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48581GP.

March 5, 2025 -- link here. This was the extension that the project needed -- back in March, 2025 -- thank you, Mr Trump and Mr Biden. The FERC commissioners. If I have this correct, three of the four were appointed by President Biden in 2024, and the current chairman was appointed by President Trump during the latter's first term in 2021. Link here.

April 28, 2025 -- within Trump's first 100 days! Another win for Trump. 

Link here.

 ****************************
Golden Pass

For "all"posts on "Golden Pass" on the blog, click here.

From June 21, 2022 -- link here.

Number 8?

  • if Calcasieu Pass was the seventh US LNG export terminal to be built, is Golden Pass #8?
  • Magnolia LNG, Louisiana, would be #9?
    • I remember an "anonymous expert" wrote me in 2015 that just because all these projects were "on the board," there was no guarantee all of them would be built, implying that "we" were all getting way ahead of our headlights. 

US LNG export capacity: link here.

  • record set in 2021, averaging 9.7 billion cubic feet per day = 3.54 trillion cubic feet annually
  • forecast:
  • an increase of 2.4 Bcf/d in 2022 --> a total of 5.94 trillion cubic feet annually
  • an increase of an additional 0.5 Bcf/d in 2023 = 6.44 trillion cubic feet annually

Qatar:

  • capacity to reach 126 million tonnes yearly by 2027
  • current capacity: 77 million tonnes, 2022

Conversion:

  • one million tonnes (LNG) = 48.7 Bcf
  • 77 * 48.7 = 3.750 trillion cubic feet annually
  • 126 million tonnes = 6.136 trillion cubic feet annually

Usual disclaimers apply:

  • there will be typographical and content errors;
  • I often make simple arithmetic errors

Golden Pass, XOM:

  • 18 million tons of LNG per year = 877 Bcf
  • Golden Pass + 2023 US forecast = 0.877 trillion +6.44 trillion = 7.3166 trillion cf/d
  • Golden Pass as percent of current US export capacity: 0.877 trillion / 3.54 trillion = 35%

SPGlobal, June 21, 2022 (today):

A request by the Golden Pass LNG Terminal developer to bring in more workers to build the Texas natural gas export facility is still pending after a year at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission amid concerns of delay.

FERC staff issued an environmental assessment on March 22 that concluded a Golden Pass plan to boost the peak workforce from 2,900 to 7,700 people per day would not cause significant harm to the environment (CP14-517). But the request still requires approval at a time when FERC is facing pressure over a recent permitting policy overhaul, which commissioners are scheduled to revisit on March 24.

Critics of the policy changes, including gas industry groups and Republican lawmakers, have argued that FERC's new approach will hinder the development of gas infrastructure, even as the White House looks to boost LNG supplies to Europe following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Golden Pass told FERC in its original February 2021 request, which also sought to increase traffic volumes and extend construction hours around the clock, that "construction progress would be severely hampered and successful execution of the project would not be feasible" without the regulator's approval for a larger workforce.

Golden Pass -- Update -- Delayed But Meeting Revised Milestones -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48580GP.

Within the first 100 days of Trump's watch! FERC approval. Another win for Trump.



Link here.

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidetial List This Next Week -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48579WELLS.

The wells:

  • 40910, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 5D, Westberg, npd,
  • 40804, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-LW-154-93-1004H-1, Robinson Lake,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2025206730
2-20252185327650
1-20251790721160
12-20242003317275
11-20241929913524
  • 40177, conf, Five States Operating, RH 1-16H, Rocky Hill,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20252330
11-20244860
10-202420800
9-202420590
8-202422790
7-202424950
6-202425500
5-202432300
4-202441250
3-202437590
2-202447650
1-20249660
  • 39981, conf, Zavanna, Collie 13-25 3H, Stony Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2025210420
2-20252174420141
1-20252691120055
12-20241779314643
  • 37575, conf, BR, Keene 21-2 TFH, Little Knife, npd,
  • 39819, conf, Hess, RS-Nelson Farms-156-91-1819H-2, Ross,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2025154470
2-2025166549519
1-2025167829819
12-2024108346326
11-2024124845500
  • 40713, conf, Silver Hill, Tank E 156-98-1-12-4MBH, Wheelock,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20251964134384
2-2025232160
1-20252883942748
12-20243319038407
11-20242098919783
  • 39982, conf, Zavanna, Collie 13-25 4H, Stony Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2025207740
2-20252723432425
1-20253156124942
12-20243105225774
  • 41139, conf, CLR, Stangeland 7-7H, Crazy Man Creek, npd,
  • 40911, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 5D, Westberg, npd,
  • 40463, conf, Oasis, Lee N 5201 21-5 4B, Camp,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20251910420161
2-20251750915422
1-202557354763
12-202439904027
11-202490115591
  • 41140, conf, CLR, Stangeland 10-7H, Crazy Man Creek, npd,
  • 41141, conf, CLR, Stangeland 11-7HSL, Crazy Man Creek, npd,
  • 41261, conf, BR, Tilton Diamond Forest 2A-ULW-R, Lone Butte, npd,
  • 40714, conf, Silver Hill Energy, Tank E 156-98-1-12-5MBH, Wheelock,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20251845627087
2-2025237440
1-20253010342550
12-20243375638450
11-20242897929782
  • 40721, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5D-31-5H, Charlson, npd,
  • 40720, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5A-31-3H, Charlson, npd,
  • 40523, conf, Zavana, Collie 13-25-5H XE, Epping,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2025208140
2-20252542828415
1-20253586429798
12-20242324817963
  • 39818, conf, Hess, RS-Nelson Farms-LE-156-91-1819-1, Ross,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2025166830
2-2025155489121
1-20251625810221
12-20241936711248
11-20243082419172
  • 22663, conf, Enerplus, Morgan 149-93-29B-32H, Mandaree, npd,
  • 40492, conf, Oasis, Lee N 5201 21-5 3B, Camp,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20252434023212
2-20252205320168
1-20252678225113
12-20242574526007
11-20242795923660
  • 41146, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 5C, Westberg, npd,
  • 41065, conf, BR, Tilton 2C, Lone Butte, npd,
  • 40719, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5A-31-3H, Charlson, npd,
  • 40712, conf, Silver Hill Energy, Tank E 156-98-1-12-3MBH,Wheelock,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20252257136153
2-2025166800
1-20252857443665
12-20243361538658
11-20243082729453

New Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48578WELLS.

The wells:

Wednesday, May 14, 2025: 35 for the month, 135 for the quarter, 327 for the year,
40910, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 5D,
40804, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-LW-154-93-1004H-1,
40177, conf, Five States Operating, RH 1-16H,
39981, conf, Zavanna, Collie 13-25 3H,
37575, conf, BR, Keene 21-2 TFH,

Tuesday, May 13, 2025: 30 for the month, 130 for the quarter, 322 for the year,
39819, conf, Hess, RS-Nelson Farms-156-91-1819H-2,

Monday, May 12, 2025: 29 for the month, 129 for the quarter, 321 for the year,
40713, conf, Silver Hill, Tank E 156-98-1-12-4MBH,
39982, conf, Zavanna, Collie 13-25 4H,

Sunday, May 11, 2025: 27 for the month, 127 for the quarter, 319 for the year,
None.

Saturday, May 10, 2025: 27 for the month, 127 for the quarter, 319 for the year,
41139, conf, CLR, Stangeland 7-7H,
40911, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 5D,
40463, conf, Oasis, Lee N 5201 21-5 4B,

Friday, May 9, 2025: 24 for the month, 124 for the quarter, 316 for the year,
41140, conf, CLR, Stangeland 10-7H,

Thursday, May 8, 2025: 23 for the month, 123 for the quarter, 315 for the year,
41141, conf, CLR, Stangeland 11-7HSL,

Wednesday, May 7, 2025: 22 for the month, 122 for the quarter, 314 for the year,
41261, conf, BR, Tilton Diamond Forest 2A-ULW-R,
40714, conf, Silver Hill Energy, Tank E 156-98-1-12-5MBH,

Tuesday, May 6, 2025: 20 for the month, 120 for the quarter, 312 for the year,
40721, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5D-31-5H,
40720, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5A-31-3H,
40523, conf, Zavana, Collie 13-25-5H XE,
39818, conf, Hess, RS-Nelson Farms-LE-156-91-1819-1,
22663, conf, Enerplus, Morgan 149-93-29B-32H,

Monday, May 5, 2025: 15 for the month, 115 for the quarter, 307 for the year,
40492, conf, Oasis, Lee N 5201 21-5 3B,

Sunday, May 4, 2025: 14 for the month, 114 for the quarter, 306 for the year,
41146, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 5C,
41065, conf, BR, Tilton 2C,
40719, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5A-31-3H,
40712, conf, Silver Hill Energy, Tank E 156-98-1-12-3MBH,