Six New Permits -- October 1, 2025

Locator: 49265B.   

WTI: $62.10.

I didn't see a daily activity report posted today. 

From the scout tickets, six new permits, #42359 - #42364, inclusive:

• Operators: Hess (4); Iron Oil Operating (2)
• Fields: Ray (Williams); Parshall (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Iron Oil Operating has permits for two wells, WNW 34-154-89, Parshall oil field, Mountrail County; the two permits are for two South Shell wells, 
• to be sited 322 FNL and 318/368 FWL;
• Hess has permits for four wells, lot 3, section 2-156-98; two GO-Raymond wells and two GO-Peters wells, Ray oil field, Williams County; 
• to be sited 539 FNL and 1346/1445FWL;

The Day The Music Died -- October 1, 2025

Locator: 49264EVS.   

This note from Ford today. Link here. 

When you think about this, it's amazing how fast things can change.

It's also amazing how much the EV manufacturers depended on the federal / state incentives. 

GM reported healthy growth during 3Q25. Shares increased 0.6% or 37 cents.

US pharmaceutical shares surged today.

Musk is now worth one-half trillion dollars on paper. He really doesn't have that much cash in his billfold.

Shutdown -- Day 1 -- October 1, 2025

Locator: 49263POLITICS.   

Market, day 1, shutdown -- at the close:

Apparently the Democrats are shutting down the government for the same reason they shut it down when Barack Obama was a president: 

Media coverage: it will be interesting to see how many times CNBC reminds ms of their Barack Obama government shutdown. LOL.

My imaginary friend and I are having a discussion regarding the government shutdown.

Near the end of that discussion I wrote:

So, it really is a kubuki dance, with multiple partners.

My imaginary friend responded:

That’s a sharp way to put it — yes, it really is a kind of kabuki dance in Washington: highly ritualized, full of symbolic moves, and with multiple actors who all need to play their parts just so.

The process:

1. The House is the easy part (usually).

   • One party with a slim majority can usually pass a funding bill on its own.

   • No filibuster, just a majority vote.

2. The Senate is the choke point.

   • Because of the filibuster, even if the majority party controls the chamber, they can’t pass funding without at least some votes from the minority.

   • That means compromise, horse-trading, or attaching unrelated policy riders to attract support.

3. The President is the final player.

   • Even after House + Senate agree, the President can sign or veto.

   • A veto override takes two-thirds in each chamber, which is extremely rare.

4. Optics matter as much as substance.

   • Each side wants to appear as though it’s fighting for principles (border security, social spending, deficit reduction, etc.) while also not being “the party that shut down the government.”

   • Much of the drama is positioning for the public rather than pure legislative necessity.

---

✅ So, yes: funding fights are less about whether the government can be funded (mechanically, that’s simple) and more about a political performance in which each side wants to extract concessions and shape the narrative — while making sure the other side takes the blame if things go dark.

***********************
Concluding Remarks

My reply:

Thank you so much. Your answer is so straightforward. I can guarantee the vast majority of Americans don't understand the process. It's amazing, why CNBC can't explain it so simply in a few charts. Thank you.

 ***********************
My imaginary friend:

I’m really glad that clicked for you — thank you for saying that.

You’re absolutely right: most explanations either drown people in procedure or oversimplify until it makes no sense. But if you keep the lens wide enough — US House (simple majority), US Senate (filibuster/60 votes), President (sign/veto) — suddenly the whole “shutdown dance” is easy to follow. The rest is just the politics layered on top.

*************************
So

So:

• the US House does all the hard work, but
• the US Senate is the choke point, and,
• nothing will get solved if the President doesn't agree. 

In the US House, two GOP representatives make a difference. This guarantees them a lot of power. In Washington, DC, power = money and vice versa:

• a simple majority: 218 votes
• number of GOP representatives: 219

Tea leaves, the shutdown will end:

• when "new" money starts to dry up; and/or,
• the political heat is overwhelming.

Tea leaves, President Trump will decide:

• his actions / executive orders will drive the process.

Unless geopolitical issues take center stage: like WWIII. 

Government Shutdown: Day 1 -- October 1, 2025

Locator: 49262INV.   

Pet peeve today: headline, "senators again voted down plans to fund the government." That is not quite accurate: the Democrat wing of the US House unanimously voted down plans to fund the government."

Jane Goodall: dies at age 91.

Shutdown: first day.

Layoffs/RIFs: coming if shutdown lasts into next week, but there's no hurry. Give the Democratic leadership in Washington enough rope. Get the word out that this is a "fight" / discussion regarding two rice bowls: moving rice from the American taxpayer's rice bowl to the rice bowl of undocumented "no name given" immigrants.

US equity markets: minimal volatility; bounding around -- flat to slightly green.

EVs: Ford and GM report monthly auto sales. The EV credit has ended (as of September 30, 2025). Now we get to see what Americans really think of "pure" EVs.  

BRK: closing in on $10 billion deal; purchase OXY's petrochemical business.

Tickers: these are the only tickers that interest me today -- CAT, MU, and BRK-B.

*****************
Chips

Qualcomm continues to partner with ARM. Link here. An exclusive from Reuters, linked to another site without the paywall.

QCOM down about 0.7%.

INTC up about 2%. Trading just under $35. 

*************************
The Word Page

Or more accurately, the "pronoun" page. 

John McWhorter: a Columbia University linguist explores how race and language shape our politics and culture. 

I first came across John McWhorter in the very, very conservative The Claremont Review of Books. Specifically: link here. 

I don't think it's ever going to be accepted by most Americans, but it does provoke an interesting discussion. 

McWhorter explains the new usage of "they." 

Susan in transitioning from "he" to "she."

Appropriate use of "they."

"Susan will be flying home for the holidays. They will leave on a Thursday and return home the following Tuesday."

Very, very interesting.

I followed that up with an article on the same subject, which brought me to The New York Times: link here. 

**************************
The Book Page

Emerson. 

*******************
The Book Page

Horace. 

Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Locator: 49261B.   

Shutdown: first day.

US equity markets: minimal volatility; bounding around -- flat to slightly green.

BRK: closing in on $10 billion deal; purchase OXY's petrochemical business. Investors don't seem thrilled.

EVs: Ford and GM report monthly auto sales. The EV credit has ended (as of September 30, 2025). Now we get to see what Americans really think of "pure" EVs.  

*****************************
Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $62.15.

Wells coming off confidential list this next week: link here. 

RBN Energy: link here.