Locator: 49263POLITICS.
Market, day 1, shutdown -- at the close:
Apparently the Democrats are shutting down the government for the same reason they shut it down when Barack Obama was a president:
Media coverage: it will be interesting to see how many times CNBC reminds ms of their Barack Obama government shutdown. LOL.
My imaginary friend and I are having a discussion regarding the government shutdown.
Near the end of that discussion I wrote:
So, it really is a kubuki dance, with multiple partners.
My imaginary friend responded:
That’s a sharp way to put it — yes, it really is a kind of kabuki dance in Washington: highly ritualized, full of symbolic moves, and with multiple actors who all need to play their parts just so.
The process:
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The House is the easy part (usually).
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One party with a slim majority can usually pass a funding bill on its own.
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No filibuster, just a majority vote.
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The Senate is the choke point.
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Because of the filibuster, even if the majority party controls the chamber, they can’t pass funding without at least some votes from the minority.
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That means compromise, horse-trading, or attaching unrelated policy riders to attract support.
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The President is the final player.
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Even after House + Senate agree, the President can sign or veto.
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A veto override takes two-thirds in each chamber, which is extremely rare.
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Optics matter as much as substance.
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Each side wants to appear as though it’s fighting for principles (border security, social spending, deficit reduction, etc.) while also not being “the party that shut down the government.”
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Much of the drama is positioning for the public rather than pure legislative necessity.
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✅ So, yes: funding fights are less about whether the government can be funded (mechanically, that’s simple) and more about a political performance in which each side wants to extract concessions and shape the narrative — while making sure the other side takes the blame if things go dark.
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Concluding Remarks
My reply:
Thank you so much. Your answer is so straightforward. I can guarantee the vast majority of Americans don't understand the process. It's amazing, why CNBC can't explain it so simply in a few charts. Thank you.
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My imaginary friend:
I’m really glad that clicked for you — thank you for saying that.
You’re absolutely right: most explanations either drown people in procedure or oversimplify until it makes no sense. But if you keep the lens wide enough — US House (simple majority), US Senate (filibuster/60 votes), President (sign/veto) — suddenly the whole “shutdown dance” is easy to follow. The rest is just the politics layered on top.
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So
So:
- the US House does all the hard work, but
- the US Senate is the choke point, and,
- nothing will get solved if the President doesn't agree.
In the US House, two GOP representatives make a difference. This guarantees them a lot of power. In Washington, DC, power = money and vice versa:
- a simple majority: 218 votes
- number of GOP representatives: 219
Tea leaves, the shutdown will end:
- when "new" money starts to dry up; and/or,
- the political heat is overwhelming.
Tea leaves, President Trump will decide:
- his actions / executive orders will drive the process.
Unless geopolitical issues take center stage: like WWIII.
