Purple martins:
Ponzu:
Tuesday, May 6, 2025
A Stand-Alone For Now, But We'll Add More Later -- May 6, 2025
Locator: 48598ARCHIVES.
Ponzu:
Ponzu:
Lucid, Ford, And 1Q25 Vs 1Q24 -- Toyota RAV4 Vs Ford F-150 -- May 6, 2025
Locator: 48597EVS.
Updates
May 24, 2025: in 2024, Toyota announced two substantial investments totaling over $2 billion at its flagship US facility in Georgetown, KY: $1.3 billion for electric SUV production; and almost $1 billion for an advanced paint facility -- ChatGPT.
May 24, 2025: Toyota RAV4, making American great again -- from ChatGPT -- putting huge pressure on Ford which has maintained it will not move its Mustang Mach-E production out of Mexico. In the big scheme of things, the Ford Mustang is becoming but an iconic footnote to Ford. Each F-150 truck reportedly yields an operating profit of around $10,000, and the F-Series lineup has been estimated to generate approximately 90% of Ford's global profits -- ChatGPT.
Toyota is actively considering increasing U.S. production of its RAV4 SUV, particularly at its Kentucky plant, in response to recent 25% tariffs on imported vehicles imposed by the Trump administration. This strategic shift aims to mitigate the financial impact of these tariffs and address potential supply chain disruptions.
Initially, Toyota had planned to manufacture the next-generation RAV4 exclusively in Canada and Japan. However, the new tariff landscape has prompted the company to reevaluate this approach. By expanding production in Kentucky, Toyota seeks to reduce exposure to import-related costs and currency fluctuations.
The redesigned 2026 RAV4, set to launch later this year, will be exclusively available as a hybrid or plug-in hybrid model. This move aligns with Toyota’s broader strategy to electrify its vehicle lineup and meet growing consumer demand for hybrid options.
While Toyota has not officially confirmed the expansion of RAV4 production in the U.S., the company acknowledges that such a move would help alleviate the impact of tariffs and better serve the American market.
In summary, Toyota is considering shifting more RAV4 production to the U.S., particularly Kentucky, to navigate tariff challenges and meet domestic demand. However, official confirmation and detailed plans are yet to be announced.
May 24, 2025: developments:
- Toyota could move RAV4 manufacturing to US to avoid tariffs;
- Toyota to convert all RAV4 to EVs of some sort (no pure EVs, only HEV and PHEVs, all fake EVs -- but that's what Americans want)
May 24, 2025: nothing new here. I had forgotten that the Toyota RAV4 is now the #1 selling vehicle in the US, overtaking the F-150. From ChatGPT today:
As of 2024, the Toyota RAV4 has overtaken the Ford F-150 to become the best-selling individual vehicle model in the United States. According to data from Jato Dynamics, the RAV4 achieved 475,193 sales, marking a 9% increase from the previous year, while the F-150 experienced a 5% decline, totaling 460,915 units sold .
This shift is significant, as the Ford F-150 had held the top spot for over four decades. However, it’s important to note that when considering the entire Ford F-Series lineup—which includes models like the F-250 and F-350—the combined sales still surpass those of the RAV4, with 765,649 units sold in 2024 .
The RAV4’s rise in popularity can be attributed to several factors, including increased consumer preference for SUVs and the growing demand for hybrid vehicles. In fact, hybrids and plug-in hybrids now represent about half of RAV4 sales . Toyota’s strategic incentives, such as special financing rates and lease offers, have also played a role in boosting sales .
On the other hand, the F-150’s decline was partly due to production disruptions. In early 2024, Ford temporarily halted operations at its Kansas City Assembly Plant and the Dearborn Truck Plant due to supplier-related issues, leading to temporary layoffs of approximately 9,700 union workers .
In summary, while the Ford F-150 remains a dominant force in the pickup truck segment, the Toyota RAV4 has emerged as the top-selling individual vehicle model in the U.S. for 2024, reflecting shifting consumer preferences and market dynamics.
May 7, 2025: this is quite interesting -- the "spin." After doing a fair amount of reading regarding the 1Q25 EV production reports for Ford, Lucid, and Rivian, I thought I had a pretty good idea what was going on. Then, as more and more stories "leak" out ..... well, take a look. This one involves Lucid. At first I fell for the company's line ... hook, line, and sinker, as they say. Then this story was posted, link here:
Lucid Motors has been working through some quality “hiccups” in the early stages of delivering its long-awaited electric SUV, according to interim CEO Marc Winterhoff.
“It is true that we had some technical issues that we had to overcome around software” and the Gravity’s heads-up display, Winterhoff said on a conference call Tuesday. “There have been some hiccups. To be quite frank, I think this is absolutely normal in the beginning of launching a vehicle.”
In particular, Winterhoff cited supply chain issues with Gravity’s heads-up display as a source of trouble. The company has pulled that option back for now while it works with the supplier to increase production of the part.
Winterhoff said these early quality snags are the reason why Lucid has been slow to bring the Gravity to its showroom locations, including SUVs that are supposed to be used for test drives. But he said the company is “knocking those [issues] out.”
“We’d rather push it out a few days or weeks, rather than putting a half-baked product in front of the customer,” he said.
Lucid’s first SUV arrives at a critical juncture for the company. It has so far failed to sell its Air sedan at anywhere near the levels it once promised to Wall Street. Its total losses to date are now over $13 billion, according to a new regulatory filing. And in February, its long-running CEO abruptly stepped down, which led to the installation of Winterhoff.
The Gravity was originally supposed to hit the market in 2023. The launch was pushed back a year thanks to the disruptions caused by the COVID pandemic. Lucid did technically start delivering Gravity SUVs in late 2024, although only to employees and people close to the company.
The SUV, which currently starts at $94,000 and gets 450 miles of range, started shipping to regular customers in the last few weeks. But progress has been slow thanks to some of these early production challenges.
Lucid has said it doesn’t expect to grow the volume of deliveries until the back half of this year. And it is not alone in dealing with early-run quality problems. Automakers of all sizes tend to deal with issues big or small as they start building new vehicles. Elon Musk once said in a 2021 interview that he tells friends to wait until Tesla is making new cars at scale before they buy one.
Selling cars makes up the overwhelming majority of Lucid’s business. The company has often said it wants to be a supplier of EV tech to other automakers. To date, it has only inked a deal with Aston Martin, but Winterhoff teased other possible partnerships on Tuesday’s call.
The interim CEO said “several players” have reached out to explore “joint manufacturing” in the U.S., potentially at the former Nikola factory in Coolidge, Arizona, that Lucid is now leasing.
Original Notes
Lucid got way too much attention for its 1Q25 earnings results so I was curious: why? Why so much attention? Then looking at the numbers: if I'm reading this correctly, Lucid delivered 3,109 vehicles in 1Q25, up almost 60% compared the same quarter one year earlier (2024). And almost the same number as Ford's electric Mustangs and electric EVs combined.
Meanwhile, Ford sold a total of 4,667 electric Mustangs and electric F-150s combined in 1Q25 compared to 6,983 in the same quarter one year earlier (2024), a drop of 33%.
For me, this is not a story about Lucid. This is a story about Ford.
Ford:
First quarter, 2025, Ford sold:
- 2,927 Mustangs Mach-E; and,
- 1,740 F-150 Lightnings:
- total: 4,667
Lucid, 1Q25, link here:
Six New Permits; Fourteen Permits Renewed; Nine DUCs Reported As Completed -- May 6, 2025
Locator: 48600B.
WTI:
Active rigs:
Six new permits, #41879 - #41884, inclusive:
- Operator: XTO
- Field: Grinnell (Williams County)
- Comments:
- XTO has permits for six Artemis wells, SWNe 13-154-96,
- to be sited 2175 FNL and 1440 / 1640 FEL.
Fourteen permits renewed:
- Lime Rock (8): State (2), Kary (2), Emi Veverka, Schneider (2), and Garfield permits -- Cabernet, Dunn County.
- Hunt Oil (4): two Smoky Butte and two Oakland permits; Smoky Butte and Parshall oil fields; Mountrail County;
- Enerplus: an MHA Breckenridge permit, Eagle Nest, McKenzie County;
- WPX: an FBIR MHA permit, Heart Butte, Dunn County.
Nine DUCs reported as completed:
- 39808, 692, Kraken, Turbodiesel 19-30-31 1H, Williams County;
- 39809, 765, Kraken, Turbodiesel 19-30-31 2H, Williams County;
- 39810, 618, Kraken, Turbodiesel 19-30-31 3H, Williams County;
- 39813, 315, Kraken, Apollo 18-7-6 3H, Williams County;
- 40663, 1,923, CLR, Sandhill 5-24H, Williams County;
- 41013, 1,735, CLR, Alfsvaag FIU 6-31H, Williams County;
- 41019, 1,387, CLR, Bud FIU 6-30H, Williams County;
- 41021, 1,465, CLR, Bud FIU 7-30H, Williams County;
- 41022, 1,855, CLR, Alfsvaag Federal 8-31H, Williams County;
Scrolling Through X At End Of The Day -- May 6, 2025
Locator: 48599ARCHIVES.
Noteworthy: even among war-time presidents, I can't think of any administration that has been more "amazing" than the current administration. Executive orders and judicial over-reach: SCOTUS has effectively put a stop to the craziness.
US personal savings rates, link here:
Measles: number of measles in Texas now goes over 700 cases -- 702 cases
- 91 with history of hospitalization
- two fatalities in children; neither had known underlying conditions
SCOTUS: with ruling on trans / military today, the US Supreme Court telegraphs how it plans to thread the needle. I don't follow the US judicial system to know the backstory, but I assume SCOTUS is taking a page from the playbook of bygone eras. Perhaps from the FDR era?
NBA tonight -- it's going to be tough to "beat" last night's games. Tonight:
- Pacers vs Cavaliers, early game;
- Warriors vs Timberwolves, late game
- Steph Curry vs Minnesota
AMD delivered: nice report. Link here. Certainly doesn't feel like a recession.
data center revenue has grown at a 56% CAGR over the past four years; link here;
PLTR: down 11% -- as low as 13% down -- today after absolutely crushing earnings ...
Super Micro: lowers guidance.
CHORD out with results.
DEVON out with results.
- "stunning" drop of 5,000 bopd oil volumes quarter / quarter in their Delaware Basin as per today's earnings release;
BRK, 1Q25, link here. Has anyone really looked at this graphic?
Lucid: shares rise; "earnings were good enough."
Senator John Fetterman, trending. And not in a good way.
India and Pakistan: war breaking out? This never would have happened under a Biden presidency.
Canada / US: to see Indian-Pakistani conflict across the continent; many westerners will be shocked; the cost of mass immigration with zero assimilation.
China is in deep financial trouble and Trump knows it.So do "thinking" Democrats.
RFK, Jr.: I may be whistling past the graveyard, but my hunch is RFK, Jr, will cause no long-lasting damage to health care in the United States. I can imagine some good coming from his craziness. But again, I may be whistling past the graveyard.
Here We Go -- Thank You Mr Trump -- Thank You JPow -- Printing Money? -- May 6, 2025
Locator: 48598THEFED.
Quietly, the Fed is beginning to stimulate the economy.
A reader alerted me to this. I don't follow bonds or the Treasury at this level so I would have missed it. I'm sure no one on Wall Street, NYC, missed this. LOL.
From x:
From AI (which is often wrong):
The New BNSF Bismarck-Mandan Rail Bridge -- The Warren Buffett Memorial North Dakota Bridge -- May 6, 2025
Locator: 48597ND.
BNSF site. The new bridge is expected to be completed 2Q26. The ND Supreme Court sided with BNSF February 8, 2024, just a little over a year ago. Unanimous ruling: the preservation groups did not follow procedures for appealing permits. The lawsuit against the railroad was filed in September, 2017.
In with the new:
Out with the old:
DOD To Cut Number Of 4-Star General Officers / Flag Officers By "At Least" Twenty Percent = 10 Four-Stars Could Be Cut -- Easier Said Than Done -- May 6, 2025
Locator: 48596DOD.
DOD to reduce number of general officers; number of stars. Talked about for years;
finally getting done. A Biden administration would have taken too much
political heat cutting the number of general officers, but the Trump
administration / GOP can take the heat.
According to Hegseth, there are currently 44 four-star and flag officers across the military, making for a ratio of one general to 1,400 troops, compared to the ratio during World War II of one general to 6,000 troops.
AI gets
this completely wrong suggesting that firing the Chairman, Joint Chiefs
of Staff, was a cut of one four-star general, but it does shed light
from where the cuts might come. [Actually, again, AI is laughable.]
I don't see how any of the combatant commands could be merged; the missions / geographic areas look great as is. A better solution below.
All forty-four four-star generals: wiki. When I go through the list, it looks like DOD will have a tough time coming up with a 20%reduction (20% of 44 = 8.8 = 10) because of Congressional "statutes."
Most interesting, "vice" positions are "safe" as four-stars due to statute. Could they make all joint combatant commanders and their vice commanders 3-star unless a shooting war is officially called and then promote them to four stars. When not fighting, their work is duplicative of other general officers at the Pentagon. See also major generals at wiki.
***************************
The Book Page
The Chief: The Life Of William Randolph Hearst, David Nasaw, c. 2000.
I've read the book once; some notes, not many. Now going back and reading select chapters. Will start with the chapters when he transitioned in to film, 1919, at the same time Mary Pickford, Charlie Chaplin, Douglas Fairbanks, and D. W. Griffith formed United Artists.
As I read this, it makes me think of the activity in AI and tech going on in the 2020s. It makes me think of Warren Buffett doing spectacularly well but for the most part remained in the past with his legacy holdings. Warren Buffett was brilliant at what he did but I don't think of either him or Charlie Munger being particularly "agents of change," or great strategic thinkers. In fact, by the time he got involved with something, after the 1980s, it was with well-established companies. At least that's my myth, and we all have myths regarding Buffett and Munger.
Saudi Arabia -- Update -- May 6, 2025
Locator: 48595SAUDI.
Scroll to very bottom: Saudi shenanigans again. Foreign reserves surges despite budget deficit and oil price crash.
Reminder: Noem.
Saudi: link here.
- Russia, Saudi Arabia, US: only three that matter
- Trump in the catbird seat, as they say. Unfortunately the opposition will thwart him at every opportunity
Flashback: Saudi tried this before. It was a trillion-dollar mistake. Link here.
Chart of the day -- Javier Blas -- last week.
From April 30, 2025:
Saudi: link here, foreign exchange reserves.
Taco Tuesday -- May 6, 2025
Locator: 48594B.
NBA: second round, game 1 for both; both games as exciting as they get; lower-seeded win both
- Knicks over Boston, OT
- Nuggets over Thunder
Saudi: link here.
- Russia, Saudi Arabia, US: only three that matter
- Trump in the catbird seat, as they say. Unfortunately the opposition will thwart him at every opportunity.
EVs: could this be the year we see the beginning of the end for EVs;
- if not, it's still going to be a very, very tough year for EVs.
- see Ford;
********************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $58.56.
Wednesday, May 7, 2025: 22 for the month, 122 for the quarter, 314 for the year,
- 41261, conf, BR, Tilton Diamond Forest 2A-ULW-R,
- 40714, conf, Silver Hill Energy, Tank E 156-98-1-12-5MBH,
- 40721, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5D-31-5H,
- 40720, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-5A-31-3H,
- 40523, conf, Zavanna, Collie 13-25-5H XE,
- 39818, conf, Hess, RS-Nelson Farms-LE-156-91-1819-1,
- 22663, conf, Enerplus, Morgan 149-93-29B-32H,
RBN Energy: an insider's guide to the Uinta Basin's rock, reserves, and growth potential. Archived.
In just a few years, the Uinta Basin has morphed from a quirky, waxy-crude curiosity to a burgeoning shale play with production north of 170 Mb/d and initial production (IP) rates that compare favorably with the best wells in the Permian. Still, there are a host of logistical challenges associated with transporting waxy crude out of the basin and questions have remained about the Uinta’s potential for growth and its staying power. In today’s RBN blog, we begin an in-depth look at the basin — with an assist from our friends at Novi Labs, whose innovative use of AI and machine learning provides valuable insights.
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