Updates
May 24, 2025: in 2024, Toyota announced two substantial investments totaling over $2 billion at its flagship US facility in Georgetown, KY: $1.3 billion for electric SUV production; and almost $1 billion for an advanced paint facility -- ChatGPT.
May 24, 2025: Toyota RAV4, making American great again -- from ChatGPT -- putting huge pressure on Ford which has maintained it will not move its Mustang Mach-E production out of Mexico. In the big scheme of things, the Ford Mustang is becoming but an iconic footnote to Ford. Each F-150 truck reportedly yields an operating profit of around $10,000, and the F-Series lineup has been estimated to generate approximately 90% of Ford's global profits -- ChatGPT.
Toyota is actively considering increasing U.S. production of its RAV4 SUV, particularly at its Kentucky plant, in response to recent 25% tariffs on imported vehicles imposed by the Trump administration. This strategic shift aims to mitigate the financial impact of these tariffs and address potential supply chain disruptions.
Initially, Toyota had planned to manufacture the next-generation RAV4 exclusively in Canada and Japan. However, the new tariff landscape has prompted the company to reevaluate this approach. By expanding production in Kentucky, Toyota seeks to reduce exposure to import-related costs and currency fluctuations.
The redesigned 2026 RAV4, set to launch later this year, will be exclusively available as a hybrid or plug-in hybrid model. This move aligns with Toyota’s broader strategy to electrify its vehicle lineup and meet growing consumer demand for hybrid options.
While Toyota has not officially confirmed the expansion of RAV4 production in the U.S., the company acknowledges that such a move would help alleviate the impact of tariffs and better serve the American market.
In summary, Toyota is considering shifting more RAV4 production to the U.S., particularly Kentucky, to navigate tariff challenges and meet domestic demand. However, official confirmation and detailed plans are yet to be announced.
May 24, 2025: developments:
- Toyota could move RAV4 manufacturing to US to avoid tariffs;
- Toyota to convert all RAV4 to EVs of some sort (no pure EVs, only HEV and PHEVs, all fake EVs -- but that's what Americans want)
May 24, 2025: nothing new here. I had forgotten that the Toyota RAV4 is now the #1 selling vehicle in the US, overtaking the F-150. From ChatGPT today:
As of 2024, the Toyota RAV4 has overtaken the Ford F-150 to become the best-selling individual vehicle model in the United States. According to data from Jato Dynamics, the RAV4 achieved 475,193 sales, marking a 9% increase from the previous year, while the F-150 experienced a 5% decline, totaling 460,915 units sold .
This shift is significant, as the Ford F-150 had held the top spot for over four decades. However, it’s important to note that when considering the entire Ford F-Series lineup—which includes models like the F-250 and F-350—the combined sales still surpass those of the RAV4, with 765,649 units sold in 2024 .
The RAV4’s rise in popularity can be attributed to several factors, including increased consumer preference for SUVs and the growing demand for hybrid vehicles. In fact, hybrids and plug-in hybrids now represent about half of RAV4 sales . Toyota’s strategic incentives, such as special financing rates and lease offers, have also played a role in boosting sales .
On the other hand, the F-150’s decline was partly due to production disruptions. In early 2024, Ford temporarily halted operations at its Kansas City Assembly Plant and the Dearborn Truck Plant due to supplier-related issues, leading to temporary layoffs of approximately 9,700 union workers .
In summary, while the Ford F-150 remains a dominant force in the pickup truck segment, the Toyota RAV4 has emerged as the top-selling individual vehicle model in the U.S. for 2024, reflecting shifting consumer preferences and market dynamics.
May 7, 2025: this is quite interesting -- the "spin." After doing a fair amount of reading regarding the 1Q25 EV production reports for Ford, Lucid, and Rivian, I thought I had a pretty good idea what was going on. Then, as more and more stories "leak" out ..... well, take a look. This one involves Lucid. At first I fell for the company's line ... hook, line, and sinker, as they say. Then this story was posted, link here:
Lucid Motors has been working through some quality “hiccups” in the early stages of delivering its long-awaited electric SUV, according to interim CEO Marc Winterhoff.
“It is true that we had some technical issues that we had to overcome around software” and the Gravity’s heads-up display, Winterhoff said on a conference call Tuesday. “There have been some hiccups. To be quite frank, I think this is absolutely normal in the beginning of launching a vehicle.”
In particular, Winterhoff cited supply chain issues with Gravity’s heads-up display as a source of trouble. The company has pulled that option back for now while it works with the supplier to increase production of the part.
Winterhoff said these early quality snags are the reason why Lucid has been slow to bring the Gravity to its showroom locations, including SUVs that are supposed to be used for test drives. But he said the company is “knocking those [issues] out.”
“We’d rather push it out a few days or weeks, rather than putting a half-baked product in front of the customer,” he said.
Lucid’s first SUV arrives at a critical juncture for the company. It has so far failed to sell its Air sedan at anywhere near the levels it once promised to Wall Street. Its total losses to date are now over $13 billion, according to a new regulatory filing. And in February, its long-running CEO abruptly stepped down, which led to the installation of Winterhoff.
The Gravity was originally supposed to hit the market in 2023. The launch was pushed back a year thanks to the disruptions caused by the COVID pandemic. Lucid did technically start delivering Gravity SUVs in late 2024, although only to employees and people close to the company.
The SUV, which currently starts at $94,000 and gets 450 miles of range, started shipping to regular customers in the last few weeks. But progress has been slow thanks to some of these early production challenges.
Lucid has said it doesn’t expect to grow the volume of deliveries until the back half of this year. And it is not alone in dealing with early-run quality problems. Automakers of all sizes tend to deal with issues big or small as they start building new vehicles. Elon Musk once said in a 2021 interview that he tells friends to wait until Tesla is making new cars at scale before they buy one.
Selling cars makes up the overwhelming majority of Lucid’s business. The company has often said it wants to be a supplier of EV tech to other automakers. To date, it has only inked a deal with Aston Martin, but Winterhoff teased other possible partnerships on Tuesday’s call.
The interim CEO said “several players” have reached out to explore “joint manufacturing” in the U.S., potentially at the former Nikola factory in Coolidge, Arizona, that Lucid is now leasing.
Original Notes
Lucid got way too much attention for its 1Q25 earnings results so I was curious: why? Why so much attention? Then looking at the numbers: if I'm reading this correctly, Lucid delivered 3,109 vehicles in 1Q25, up almost 60% compared the same quarter one year earlier (2024). And almost the same number as Ford's electric Mustangs and electric EVs combined.
Meanwhile, Ford sold a total of 4,667 electric Mustangs and electric F-150s combined in 1Q25 compared to 6,983 in the same quarter one year earlier (2024), a drop of 33%.
For me, this is not a story about Lucid. This is a story about Ford.
Ford:
First quarter, 2025, Ford sold:
- 2,927 Mustangs Mach-E; and,
- 1,740 F-150 Lightnings:
- total: 4,667
Lucid, 1Q25, link here:
