Monday, October 7, 2019

Groningen Back In The News With An Update -- October 7, 2019

For previous posts on Netherlands' Groningen natural gas field, click here.

Bottom line:
  • Groningen: supplies in the neighborhood of about 50% of all natural gas used by "Europe"
  • earthquakes affecting the Netherlands; local folks want natural gas production from Groningen halted
  • some years ago, maybe in the 2014 time frame, plans were to gradually draw down and eventually end natural gas production from the Groningen by 2030
  • then the bombshell earlier this year; Groningen would shut down eight years earlier than planned; by 2022 or thereabouts
  • now, we are hearing that the Dutch have no Plan B
An update at Reuters:
The Dutch government said it would not increase production at small gas fields in the Netherlands to compensate for halting production at Groningen in coming years.

The Netherlands said this month it would halt production at Groningen, Europe's largest onshore natural gas field, by 2022, eight years earlier than initially planned.

Economic Affairs Minister Eric Wiebes informed parliament on Friday that "the ending of gas extraction at Groningen in 2022 with not lead to higher production at 240 small gas fields in the Netherlands," a statement said. "The volume will in fact decrease."
In other words, no Plan B. 

The CLR Charolais North Well And The CLR Charolais South Well -- Both In Elm Tree

This page will not not be updated. The wells mentioned on this page are tracked elsewhere.

CLR has a producing Charolais North well and, as of October 7, 2019, a permit for a Charolais South well.

This is the graphic showing where the currently producing Charolais North well is sited and it's north-to-south horizontal; and the general location of CLR's permit for a Charolais South well, which will obviously run south-to-north and parallel the "north" Charolais horizontal.

The Charolais North Federal well is tracked here.

The Charolais South Federal well is tracked here.

The CLR Simmental Federal / Charolais South Federal Wells -- October 7, 2019

October 7, 2019: From the daily activity report dated October 7, 2019. CLR with ten more Simmental Federal / Charolais South Federal permits:
  • 37043, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 13-16HSL2,
  • 37044, conf, CLR, Charolais South Federal 2-10HSL,
  • 37045, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 12-16H,
  • 37046, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 11-16H2,
  • 37047, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 10-16H,
  • 37048, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 9-16H1,
  • 37049, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 8-16H,
  • 37050, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 7-16H2,
  • 37051, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 6-16H,
  • 37052, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 5-16H2,
The Charolais North Federal is tracked here.

Ten New CLR Permits -- October 7, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5764593367

Ten new permits, #37043 - #37052, inclusive
  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Elm Tree
  • Comments: 
Four permits canceled:
  • MRO (2): a Star USA permit, and a Lawson USA permit, both in McKenzie County;
  • Newfield: a Sturgeon permit in McKenzie County
  • CLR: a Cuskelly permit in Dunn County
One permit renewed:
  • Oasis: a Fraser Federal permit in Williams County
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34906, 1,755, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-9, Truax, t8/1; cum 6K over 4 days;
  • 33475, 1,513, EOG, Liberty LR 47-1416H, Parshall, t8/19; 16K over 10 days; #19231, neighboring; off line;
  • 33474, 1,333, EOG, LIberty LR 110-1416H, Parshall, t8/19; cum 14K over 10 days; #31430, neighboring, off line;

COP's Surprise Announcement Could Shake Up Shale -- October 7, 2019


October 8, 2019: see comments, regarding boepd vs bopd.

Later, 5:11 p.m. CT: link here. Screenshot from linked article:

Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Morning morning market (and early afternoon):
  • Dow: up / down fifty points either side of zero throughout morning / early afternoon
  • COP: ups dividend by 38%; from 30.5 cents to 42 cents/share 
    • will buy back $3 billion of its own shares
    • says it wants to return 30% of its value to investors
      • p/e= 8.9
      • current price: $55
      • $3 billion / $55 = 55 million shares
      • currently outstanding: 1.11 billion
      • after buyback: 1.056 billion
      • current market cap: $60.573 billion 
      • after buyback: shares move to about $57, all things being equal
    • one year target over at Yahoo!Finance: $74 (as posted this date, October 7, 2019)
    • by they way, COP's dividend is still well below what it was paying in 2015
  • CVX: in a race with XOM to be first operator to produce a million bopd from the Permian
    • announces a joint venture with Cimarex Energy; one of the few Permian operators that has been consistently profitable since late 2016; apparently that was "well known"; quick: ticker symbol for Cimarex?
    • but CVX has dozens of other agreements with other shale operators
    • list of operators does not include at least one well-know Permian operator
  • Cimarex
    • p/e of 7.4
    • pays 1.75%
    • trading at $45
  • FANG
  • GM: not good news for the UAW? GM digs in its heels over the weekend, and apparently GM investors like what they see; GM is up a bit o a pretty lackluster trading day. Lackluster is an interesting word, isn't it? 
  • F: on the other hand, F remains flat
  • AAPL: was up higher earlier today, but is still showing green; up about half a percent; up about a $1.30; trading just above $228


Danica Patrick and Aaron Rodgers.

I did not know they were "an item" until I saw the story of Ellen Degeneres and her partner sharing  a booth with former President George W. and Laura Bush over the weekend while watching the Dallas Cowboys lose to Aaron Rodgers. How did I ever miss that power couple? I guess it's an old, old story, so I must have just forgotten. LOL. I do remember the name of her male friend beofe this one.

Nine Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- October 7, 2019

John Svedrup: this is pretty cool. I link/track the John Svedrup at the sidebar at the right. This giant field goes into production today Data points:
  • Equinor
  • output start-up two months ahead of schedule
  • came in $4.3 billion below original estimates
  • recoverable reserves of 2.7 billion boe
  • at plateau, will produce up to 60,000 bopd
  • will account for one-third of Norway's production
  • peak oil? what peak oil?
  • all that hand-wringing over lack of offshore E&P?
Vietnam: positioning itself as SE Asia's top polymers hub; benefits from US-China trade war. At ArgusMedia.

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend, today -- 
Monday, October 7, 2019: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter:
  • 35653, SI/NC, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HW, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 35652, SI/NC, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HA, Spotted Horn, no production data,
Sunday, October 6, 2019: 22 for the month; 22 for the quarter:
  • 35651, SI/NC, WPX, Bird Bear 35-26HS, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 35650, SI/NC, WPX, Bird Bear 36-25HB, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 34968, 1,905, CLR, Rader 10-24H, Avoca, t7/19; cum 64K 8/19;
  • 34908, 916, Nine Point Energy, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-8H, Elk, t4/19; cum 108K 8/19;
Saturday, October 5, 2019: 18 for the month; 18 for the quarter:
  • 35348, 1,478, CLR, Sorenson 11-16H, Alkali Creek, t4/19; cum 75K 8/19;
  • 35347, 1,974, CLR, Sorenson 10-16H1, Alkali Creek, t4/19; cum 122K 8/19;
  • 34759, 2,401, Whiting, Berger 24-20-1H, Tyrone, t4/19; cum 126K 8/19;
The CLR Sorenson wells are tracked here.
Some incredible wells coming off the confidential list this next week.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5864593367

RBN Energy: rising ethane demand means less rejection, more recovery and higher prices. Wasn't it just last week that things looked dire for ethane? Whatever.
Demand for ethane from U.S. steam crackers is rising as recently completed ethane-only crackers ramp up to full production and additional crackers are finished. To keep pace with demand growth, a portion of the ethane now being “rejected” into the natural gas stream and sold for its BTU value will instead need to be left in the mixed-NGLs stream and fractionated into purity-product ethane.
This raises two questions. First, in which shale plays will this shift from ethane rejection to ethane production occur? And second, how much will ethane prices need to increase to encourage the shift and make the required incremental volumes of ethane available? Today, we continue a series on ethane-market developments with a look at where the next tranche of ethane supply will come from and how high ethane prices might need to rise.