Saturday, January 28, 2017

Huge Jump In Production After Neighboring Well, Different Formation Fracked -- January 28, 2017


January 29, 2017: I received this comment after posting the note below:
I watch the Bakken more than you and I worked for Hess 45 years ago. I can tell you without any reservations that a well shut in for any significant time will display an increase in production. The amount of increase is based on duration of being shut in.
You can see the original comment at this post; it's the first comment there. 

For those who have been following the blog know the background story to this, so I won't go through it again.  I address the issue in more depth at "FAQs", question #81.

Bottom line is this: folks who understand oil much better than I do; who have followed the oil industry longer than I have; who have often worked in the oil industry; who have written me on this issue, all agree that any increase seen in production after a neighboring well is fracked is due to simply to increased pressure that has built up while the well was shut-in or taken off-line to protect it while the neighboring well was fracked.

For readers: I would listen to the folks who understand the Bakken much better than I; who have followed the oil industry long than I have; who have often worked in the oil industry.

I think it's a fascinating phenomenon, production jumping from 9,350 boe/month to 32,000 boe/month after being shut in for three months. That data point alone begs the next question. Actually that raises several questions. Perhaps another day.

Original Post
Observation only; no comment

Check out the production profile for this well drilled/completed back in 2012. Note that it was off-line for about four months back in late summer/autumn, 2016:

Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
A neighboring / new well was fracked late summer/autumn, 2016, API: 33-053-06747-00-00, fracked 9/17-23/2015; 2.9 million gallons water; total mass, 19% proppant;

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The earlier well:
  • 22361, 4,971, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4-3H, a middle Bakken well, t12/12; cum 499K 11/16;
The more recent neighboring well, fracked mid-September, 2015:
  • 30774, 1,844, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-5TFH; a Three Forks well;

Another well in the immediate area did not show any increase in production, except perhaps the first full month coming back on-line; it was also off-line about 2.5 months:
  • 30776, 1,345, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4-3TFH, a Three Forks, t10/15; cum 235K 11/16;
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


Disclaimer: the NDIC map was hard to read due to all the horizontals; there may be errors. In addition, the narrative was done quickly and there are likely to be factual and typographical errors. Again, no conclusions/analyses are being drawn; this is simply being posted as an observation.

Huge CLR Well Back On Status -- January 28, 2017

Back on-line:
  • 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, s1/11; t9/11; AL; cum 1.507 million bbls 11/16; 24 stages; 2.4 million lbs; middle Bakken; runs south; 4 section spacing; this is an incredible well; still 19,000 bbls in October, 2015; off-line all of 8/16; back on-line; sundry form says valve on LACT line was cracked open; small oil spill; resolved;
Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Re-Completed QEP Well With New Frack Data -- January 28, 2017

QEP re-completed this well (reported previously). API: 33-053-05828. Now with data for second frack.
  • 28168, 649, QEP, State 3-16-21BH, t12/14; recomplete, summer, 2015, cum 24K 11/16;  
FracFocus confirms:
  • original frack: 10/6-8/2014; 1.7 million gallons of water; total mass, 14% sand;
  • new frack: 9/18-21/2015; 2.2 million gallons of water; total mass, 12% sand;
Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Statoil's Skarston Wells In Banks Oil Field All Seem To Be Back On-Line -- January 28, 2017


December 19, 2018: first / oldest Skarston well with huge jump in production; not re-fracked.
From an earlier post:
From July 15, 2016: the 8-well Skarston pad plus the oldest ninth Skarston well in immediate area. It sounds like Statoil asked for a waiver for delayed production until 4/16. Check back in two to three months (9/16) to see if all wells back on status. Mostly curious if #21664 comes back on status. Reader has asked me to keep track of these wells; reader is curious if/when they come back on status.
Original Post

January 28, 2017: #21664 appears to be back on status as of 10/16; some production 10/16 and 11/16. It appears that all Skarston well at the link were back on status, autumn, 2016. These are some incredible wells. If I remember, I will come back and provide production profiles for some of these wells.

The Skarston wells are tracked here.

For example:
  • 25858, 5,010 (with natural gas, about 6,553 boe/d), Statoil, Skarston 1-12 5H, Banks, 41 stages, 9.2 million lbs, F, t3/16; cum 213K 11/16;
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Bureaucracy-101: January 28, 2017

The US agency that regulates pipelines: FERC. Data points:
  • composed of five presidential-appointed / Senate confirmed commissioners
  • all positions not always filled; currently only three commissioners
  • a quorum (three commissioners) is needed to conduct business
  • President Trump elevated a "junior" commissioner to head the agency
  • this action by Trump, apparently, miffed the "senior" commissioner who was passed over
  • the "senior" commissioner -- being miffed, tendered his/her resignation
  • FERC will have two commissioners for most of 2017
  • with only two commissioners, the FERC cannot conduct business (they need three members for a quorum)
Currently, the three commissioners: two women and a man.

Guess whether Trump appointed a woman or the male to be the head of the agency?

Cap And Trade: Alaska, California, Forests, Coal -- January 28, 2017

I may have this wrong, but this is how I read this story from Penn Energy:

Alaska Aleut, Eskimo, and Indian shareholders
  • Chugach Alaska Corporation
  • Alaskan's Prince William Sound
  • natives rely on commercial fisheries and a subsistence lifestyle
  • want to protect 115,000 acres of its forested land from development and coal acreage from development
Meanwhile, California has strict "cap and trade" laws
  • California CO2 emitters will "buy" ("protect") that Native American forested land from developement
  • CO2 emitters will purchase "credits" from the Chugach Alaska Corporation
  • terms are confidential 
  • the agreement will also buy/sell coal rights on 62,000 acres on behalf of New Forests, a sustainable forestry investment firm; forests to Nature Conservancy and Native Conservancy land trust; coal will not be developed
  • of the land being protected, the forest and the coal field overlap on 11,000 acres
Precedent / Future
  • for forests, this is not an unusual move
    • other states protecting forests: Michigan, South Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin, Arizona
    • other Alaska Native corporations pursuing similar projects
  • the "coal" angle is setting a new precedent

Random Update: CLR's Bridger - Bonneville Wells In Rattlesnake Point: One Older Bridge Well Off-Line -- Getting Ready To Frack In The Area Or Other Reasons? -- January 27, 2017

I track CLR's Bridger / Bonneville wells here.

Last update was early December, 2016.

I am waiting for three B-B wells to be fracked; they remain SI/NC.

I am tracking three neighboring wells:
  • the next data point to watch will be the production profile of #17089 when #31846 is fracked
  • the next data point to watch will be the production profile of #29552 when #31847 is fracked
  • the next data point to watch will be the production profile of #29554 when #31845 is fracked
Of those three (17089, 29552, and 29554)  one has been taken off-line:
  • 17089, 400, CLR, Bridger 44-14H, t4/08; cum 139K 11/16;
Was this well taken off-line in anticipation of fracking neighboring wells, or might there be another reason. The file reports not are not helpful. 

Recent production profile for #17089:

Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Stuck At 38 -- January 28, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3846148191190

Note of thanks: a big "thank you" to readers for not sending me e-mail or comments about typographical errors. There have been more than the usual number of typographical errors this past week. I will eventually get to most of them. If someone sees a major factual gaffe, or an "alternative fact" that simply seems wrong, please let me know.

Update On North Dakota's $2 Billion Fertilizer Plant -- January 28, 2017

Data points from The Grand Forks Herald:
  • Northern Plains Nitrogen fertilizer plant
  • Grand Forks, ND
  • $2 billion
  • path unclear
  • "seed money" in place
  • project first announced in 2013
  • had hoped to have it up and running sometime this year
  • low commodity prices driving farmers away from corn and wheat (use nitrogen)
  • farmers moving to soybeans (don't use nitrogen)
  • promoters remain optimistic
  • other suppliers too far away: Iowa and Mexico
Maybe Mexico is a bit far, but Iowa? No, not really. Except you have to go through Minnesota on Warren's trains.

Having said that, this is the kind of project noveau riche Bakken mineral owners ( The Millionaires' Club) and the ND State Bank of North Dakota should support. 

South Dakota, For Raising A Family, Ranked #1 For "Family Fun" -- January 28, 2017

The link is here.

North Dakota: #1 State To Raise A Family; South Dakota Ranked #1 In "Family Fun" -- January 28, 2017

I assume the poll / study was commissioned by the North Dakota State Tourism Board and the American Petroleum Institute, funded by Oasis, Continental Resources, Halcon, et al, looking for a gazillion workers that will be needed over the next few decades, but here it is:

North Dakota was ranked #1 overall.

But this is the best part, look at the categories and North Dakota's ranking:
  • family fun: 13 -- truly beyond the pale. I cannot imagine the "family fun" in ND being this high -- #13; but then, SOUTH DAKOTA was ranked #1 for family 1 -- I assume buffalo riding and the STURGIS MOTORCYCLE RALLY put the state #1;
  • health and safety: 7 (if we keep the kids off the oil rigs, ND's ranking will improve)
  • education and child care: 7 (about right, but most surprising, perennial #1 Iowa dropped to #13; #1 this year is New Jersey and #2 is Vermont)
  • affordability:   6 (had it not been for the Bakken, ND would have ranked higher)
  • socioeconomics: 2 ("everybody is the same")
That South Dakota rating for "family fun" is so off the chart, it deserves a stand-alone post

The Entire State Of California -- North And South -- Setting Rain/Snow Records -- January 28, 2017

Two global warming links today:
Data points from those two articles:
  • Squaw Valley, CA: more than 8 feet of snow fell in five days
  • Mammoth Mountain Ski Area, CA: more snow has fallen this January than any other month in the resort's recorded history -- that's any month, not just January, and the month is not yet over; as of January 24, 2017, 246 inches (20.5 feet) had fallen
  • Mammoth Mountain: previous monthly record -- 209 inches set in December 2010
  • Tahoe City, CA; snowiest January since 1952; again, the month is not over; 135 inches for the month, so far
  • there is so much snow on the Sierra Nevada that some ski lifts had to close; chairs were buried
  • a series of storms  have dumped more than 300% of normal January precipitation to most of the state
One wonders if Algore will change his slide presentation to reflect how the warmists so successfully predicted all of this.

By the way, some readers my have noted that I moved "global warming" links at the sidebar farther down. I am trying to gradually move away from posts on "global warming" -- Trump has just kept me too busy. So, a big "thank you" to a reader alerting me to these snow stories, and I assume the Kennedys were happy to see the notes, always looking for places to show their grandchildren what snow looks like.