Wednesday, October 6, 2021

Notes From All Over -- Part 4 -- The "Feel Good" Edition -- October 6, 2021

2022: going to be a huge year! My recommendation -- get positioned. Don't get left out; don't get left behind. It's gonna be one of the best years ever. 

  • the gap between the investor class and the non-investor class will widen; 

Shepard Smith: I can't "stand" nightly news, and that's how I felt about Shepard Smith but it's turning out to be the best one hour of news each night. I think he made the right choice jumping from Fox News to CNBC. My biggest problem with Fox News is always pushing the wrong narrative. 

  • Going for Shepard Smith:
    • a full hour of news; he's able to spend some time on a story;
    • commercial interruptions seem tolerable; ratio of news to commercials a lot less than on network nightly news;
    • on CNBC; follows Mad Money; a natural lead-in;

Henrietta Lacks: a feature story on Shepard Smith tonight; it's an old story -- at least ten years old. 

I read the book. I know as much about the Henrietta Lacks story as I do about the Bakken. I don't agree with the Lacks family on this issue but that's fine. I don't have a dog in that fight and precedents set may be important for my grandchildren.

Vaccine: first ever malaria vaccine.

  • 30% effective
  • requires up to four doses
  • protection fades after several months
  • sound familiar, but it's a first step
  • waiting for Bill Gates to comment

Covid-19: Los Angeles

  • I love the new mandate

No sympathy:

  • woman denied kidney transplant after she refused Covid vaccine

Notes From All Over -- Part 3 -- The Ojime Edition -- October 6, 2021

Covid-19: we only have a few days of data since Resident Biden started overtures for mandating vaccines, but early data suggests folks are finally getting the message. I track the vaccination numbers on a daily basis and the last seven days suggest a definite increase in the number of folks getting vaccinated.

Most of this is probably due to companies enforcing employees to get vaccinations. United Airlines was one of the first. Hospital networks seem to be the second. From here it should snowball. 
Today, Los Angeles mandated vaccine "passports." At least that was the headline. I haven't read the story, but it's my understanding that to get into museums or go to the beaches in Los Angeles one will need to show proof of vaccination. Sure, there will be a lot of forgeries, but in the big scheme of things, if nothing else, the beaches and museums might be a bit less busy this summer. Whoo-hoo. 

Ouch: gasoline has now risen to its highest price since October, 2014.  

Head fake: on the other hand, the price of natural gas has "plummeted" on news that Putin in a white hall will come riding in on a white stallion to save Europe. We'll see. I'm not convinced Russia has the production capacity. 

Debt ceiling: breaking news "now" suggests huge day on Wall Street tomorrow, especially after interesting reversal today. For those folks who say Joe Biden can't lead, he's having a pretty good year:

  • Covid-19: Delta variant has been subdued; lays down the law on vaccinations, and his "threats" are apparently giving "cover" to corporations, cities, states to mandate vaccinations;
  • got the US out of Afghanistan, and that story is off the front page;
  • debt ceiling apparently raised;
  • up next: huge infrastructure bill;

Word of the day: ojime. Related netsuke. 

I've written on netsuke in several posts over at my "literature" blog.


Shiloh was important to me. I am eager to return. Sooner than later. 

Music Interlude

Link here.
Immigrant Song: Karen O with Trent Reznor and Atticus

No New Permits, Seven Permits Renewed -- New Technology: RTP -- October 6, 202

RTP: reinforced thermoplastic pipe -- proprietary -- made by Baker Hughes in Houston.

A reader introduced me to a new technology in materials composition for pipelines: non-metallic pipe or reinforced thermoplastic pipe (RTP)

The reader writes:
  • in a nutshell, think of a six-inch 'plastic' PVC pipe Saran-wrapped with many layers of ultra-light, ultra-strong polymer material. 
  • some benefits include
    • a super shortening of the time for new pipe installation.
    • (Aramco laid 90 miles of 4 inch pipe in less than 2 days when steel pipe would have taken 70).
    • eliminates corrosion issues.
    • built-in sensing lines that monitor 24/7 including nearby external events such as hole digging by 3rd parties.
    • 600-foot reels eliminate welding
    • possible to install WITHIN existing pipelines for various applications.
  • Baker Hughes - manufacturing plant in Houston - claims largest current capacity is 8-inch diameter at over 2,200 psi load.
  • bottom line: this is such a fascinating innovation that has the potential to be a disruptive agent in the energy world.

A strong dollar: the last thing "we" need is a strong dollar, and yet, here we are. The dollar is "breaking out." Hitting new multi-year highs. A strong dollar, all other things being equal, will result in lower prices for oil.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, not reported today by the NDIC:

Active Rigs2611586459

No new permits.

Seven permits renewed:

  • Enerplus (6): Bismuth, Cadmium, Brass, Tin, Osmium, Gallium wells, SWSE section 8-147-93, Dunn County;
  • Crescent Point Energy: a CPEUSC Austin permit in Williams County

Two permits canceled:

  • Grayson Mill Operating: two State wells in SESW section 25-155-100, Williams County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 36580, 1,469, CLR, Pasadena Federal 13-11HSL, McKenzie County

The NDIC did not report the active rigs today.

Louisiana Light Jumps $1.40, Up 1.76% -- Trading At $80.42 -- October 6, 2021

The headline news today is that WTI dropped back a bit. That's true, but North Dakota light sweet -- Bakken crude oil -- is closer to quality of Louisiana Light.

Note that Louisiana Light went over $80 / bbl today.

A dynamic link.

SPR release: suggested by Jim Cramer. LOL. This is as crazy as US Treasury considering a "trillion-dollar-coin." Two things:

  • US producers will be justified not increasing production knowing that Resident Biden could release SPR crude oil at any time;
  • the most that would be released would be 30 million bbls; would make no difference in big scheme of things.

The problem is not lack of crude oil; refiners are only operating at 89% operable capacity. Why IS oil so high when there is so much oil? I think it's called backwardation. 

Someone saying it's "backwardation" makes them sound smart, but it doesn't explain a thing.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report

Significant data points:

  • US crude oil in storage increased by a small-to-moderate 2.3 million bbls from the previous week; this is getting more headlines than it deserves;
  • US crude oil in storage now at 420.9 million bbls, about 7% below the five-year average;
  • refiners are operating at 89.6% of their operable capacity;
  • US crude oil imports averaged 7.0 million bopd day, up by 483,000 bopd from the previous week;
  • over the past four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged about 6.5 million bbls per day, 22.7% more than the same period last year;
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.4 million bbls last week and are 11% below the five-year average
  • propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.6 million bbls last week; about 20% below the five-year average
  • jet fuel product supplied was up 64.1% compared with the same four-week period last year;

I don't know what this means, but look at the huge jump in US crude oil imports these past few weeks as reported today, double what it was some weeks ago. Someone mentioned this was due to a huge increase in imported Canadian oil:

Notes From All Over -- Part 3 -- The Nobel Prize Edition -- October 6, 2021

For the second time in three years, no women have won a Nobel Prize in the scientific awards.

This morning, the newest winners announced.

By the way, see if you can find the research organization from which these winners came at this link. Nor does the article mention how the winners self-identify. Perhaps some identify as women. Worse: I did not know that CNN saw the human race as binary.

  • chemistry: Benjamin List (German) and Cavid McMillan (US-based Scottish chemist) -- new method for "creating" organomolecules; in 2000 the two researchers uncovered a third kind of catalyst, called asymmetric organocatalysis;
  • physiology and medicine: David Julius (UC San Francisco) and Ardem Patapoutian (Howard Hughes Medical Institute) (both American, I believe);
  • physics: Syukuro Manabe (Princeton), Klaus Hasselmann (German), and Giorgio Parisi (Italian) (by rule, no more than three can win in any category)
  • literature: later this week
  • peace: later this week
  • economics: Monday, next week

Tennessee River -- Shiloh

Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- The ADP Edition -- October 6, 2021

Surprise, surprise, strong ADP report: link here.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed back above 1.5% on Wednesday after data showed companies hired at a faster than expected pace in September despite worries over the Covid delta variant.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 2 basis points to 1.55%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond jumped 1 basis point to 2.11%. Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.

And here, link

  • ADP: private sector employment increased by almost 600,000 jobs in September, m/m
  • look where the hiring was:
    • services: 466,000 jobs out of the 568,000 jobs (82%)
      • among the services:
        • leisure/hospitality: 226,000 (in services sector: almost 50%)
        • next largest gainer, all the way down to 66,000 in education / health services (in services sector, less than 15%); and of the two, health care/social assistance twice that of education gains
        • education? school just started -- bus drivers, cooks, etc.

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- The Humpty Dumpty Edition -- October 6, 2021

Humpty Dumpty had a great fall, link here:

Singapore: joins Scandinavia -- says "back to normal." Covid-19 is now endemic, like "seasonal flu," no longer a pandemic. Time to get on with life. Cases here. Singapore currently experiencing huge surge but will "get on with life."

By the way, these surges every four to six months following vaccinations now make sense. I understand it but won't post it or share. My thoughts on this and 69 cents will get you a senior cup of coffee. But I'm thrilled. Trump had it right from the beginning. Biden got it half-right. It's interesting Dr Fauci, an expert in this area, got it so wrong.

Finland: I can't remember if I posted this. Will re-post. Google led me to this.

Other News

Facebook: I listened to all of two minutes of "whistle-blower" testimony yesterday on Capitol Hill. I am on Zuckerberg's side on this one. 

Bitcoin: story for today might just be Bitcoin. Moving up very, very quickly. Up almost 3% in pre-market trading. 

Art, link here:

Drum solo
: the only Beatles' song to feature a drum solo. Link here. Confirms what Sina has said.

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List; SCOOP/STACK Update -- RBN Energy -- October 6, 2021

First things first: apparently I missed this. Picked up by a reader. Thank you. See this post regarding the Amber Renee

A monster well, off line for quite some time. Apparently a new sidetrack lateral has been drilled or will be drilled for #18408. In a February, 2019, sundry form, the well is TA on an annual basis, and future use of the "wellbore will be to sidetrack and complete new lateral once commodity prices improve."

Kellogg: workers at all US Kellogg's cereal plants abruptly go on strike. Discord has been going on for a year. Company has had a year to plan for this. 1,400 employees risk seeing Kellogg move rest of cereal manufacturing to Mexico. Average pay for Kellogg worker, annual: $120,000. I assume that includes benefits.

Bitcoin: completely missed this; dropped off my radar scope; last week, well below 42,000; this morning, at 51,746.

Gas deal: Southwestern Gas buys Questar Pipeline from Dominion. Carl Icahn stakes, The WSJ.

ET, phone home: Pennsylvania charges ET with 48 counts of environmental crimes associated with Mariner East 2 natural gas liquids pipeline. Link here

WTI: drops back slightly.

US equity markets: another severe opening. Buying opportunities.

Delta variant, what me worry? Apparently service sector was surprisingly strong last month. Link to WSJ.  

China blinks: China now taking Australian coal. Many, many stories. Here's one link. Does anyone thing China could wage / risk war taking Taiwan when it doesn't have enough energy to take care of things in peacetime?

India, critical: coal stocks are critically low amid global power crunch. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova

UK: natural gas prices are running $200 to $300 boe. Electricity rates skyrocketing. So, how is the average Brit doing? Not to worry. Electric rates for homeowners are capped. This now explains why Boris Johnson seems so complacent. How not to do it.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, updated daily, COB, daily activity report:

Active Rigs2611586459

Two wells coming off confidential list:

Wednesday, October 6, 2021: 8 for the month, 8 for the quarter, 232 for the year:

  • 37196, conf, Slawson, Mauser Federal 8-18-17TFH, North Fork, scout ticket not updated;
  • 37024, conf, Enerplus, Ukulele 149-94-02C-01H, Mandaree, early production looks good; scout tick not updated;

RBN Energy: can SCOOP/STACK gets its mojo back? Archived. SCOOP/STACK followed  here.

The market dislocations of the past year and a half really took the wind out of the sails of many U.S. hydrocarbon plays. Not the Permian, of course. Sure, production there declined some in the spring of 2020, but has been on the rebound ever since — aside from a brief, Deep Freeze-related downward spike back in February, that is. But the recovery in many other leading production areas was short-lived. Production in the Bakken has stayed close to flat lately, and output in the Eagle Ford has been slipping. The same is true in SCOOP/STACK, which only a few years ago was hailed as maybe the next big thing. What happened? And is there hope for a comeback? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the once-hot Oklahoma play and its prospects.