Tuesday, January 2, 2018

The Road To New England Gets Curiouser And Curiouser -- January 2, 2018 -- And, Yes, One Reason Why I Love To Blog

Some of you may have seen this over at the Drudge Report. I saw it but did not click on the links. I wish I had. An alert reader did.


This is what he sent me:
Regarding New England's energy situation ... I was curious as to how stable the oil supply was to restock the fuel being burned to generate electricity (the author of the Forbes article was aghast that 4,000 Mwh worth was oil-derived the other day. 
Today, for several hours, it was at the 6,000 Mwh rate).

Totally insane.

Anyway, a guy mentioned that a couple of tugs/barges delivering fuel oil got stuck in the frozen Hudson the other day and the Coast Guard had to be called in
Google news has the stories with great pictures.

There have been several smaller pipelines proposed to run from Albany to the NJ refineries and back to deliver Bakken crude (arriving at Albany via CBR) and get the refined product back upstate so frozen barges would not be an issue. 
Surprise! Opposition has been preventing the build out.
If you haven't been following the story, you can check the tag, "Road_To_New_England," and check out the ISO New England website.
 
 

Not Ready For Prime Time -- Looking Forward To Financial Results From Oil Companies In 2018

Why I'm looking forward to quarterly earnings reports from the oil sector this year.

#1: some say the tax bill is the biggest tax bill ever passed. And it was not a bill raising taxes (like ObamaCare, a tax bill), but a bill cutting taxes. I can only assume every corporation in America is looking for all the goodies hidden in that bill. CPAs and lawyers will find things in this tax bill that no one else has noticed [Update, January 3, 2018 -- Jim Cramer -- a must watch -- if you don't "believe" me -- his January 3, 2018 show.]

#1a: accelerating expense deductions (if a CEO is on the fence regarding buying another truck or two or a fleet of trucks, accelerating expense deductions will certainly help the CEO make a decision) 

#2: WTI above $60 will likely hold

#3: US oil companies will increase market share; Saudi Arabia and OPEC are losing market share.

#4a: competition from Venezuela and Canada may be less

#4b: with the Iranian situation now, could something significant happen in the Mideast this year that might disrupt the flow of oil?

#5: CAPEX has dropped considerably, and oil companies will still reach their contractual quotas (exploration spending to fall just as WTI price rises)

#6: break-even costs continue to drop

#7: none of the major US on-shore shale plays are declining; I'm not even sure one could say any are mature; the Bakken boom may be over, but it certainly is not mature

#8: everyone's talking about the "synchronized global economy" -- all indications it will not diminish in 2018; demand for oil is increasing; the only argument is by how much

#9: even if everything stayed the same with regard to resources allotted: manpower, rigs, frack spreads; infrastructure; etc, the technology is improving; the roughnecks are better than ever; the geology is better understood -- all leading to better production from same amount of "hardware"/resources

#10: oil companies are not yet enjoying an explosive resurgence; they will manage their assets closely in 2018; when oil companies are making money "hand-over-fist" they tend to spend money inefficiently; I don't see oil companies spending recklessly this year

#11: CNBC talking heads talk about sector rotation; oil sector is boom and bust; some argue that the worst of the bust is over

Automobiles -- Nothing About The Bakken -- January 2, 2018

From The Wall Street Journal today: car sales to top 90 million globally for first time (2017).
Global sales of passenger cars and trucks likely surpassed 90 million for the first time in 2017, the latest indicator that demand for conventional automobiles remains strong even as driverless cars and ride sharing get increasing attention.
The results were fueled in part by a continued rebound in Western Europe and recovery in major emerging markets, including Brazil and Russia. Asian buyers are the main engine for sales growth with more than a quarter of the cars sold last year going to Chinese customers, up from less than 15% a decade ago.
The North American market is the world’s most profitable for auto makers, but American dealership traffic has slowed after several years of momentum. Analysts expect U.S. sales in 2017 to fall short of a record 2016 and are bracing for production cuts in the first quarter of this year amid further slowdown.
December’s U.S. sales are due out Wednesday (tomorrow).
One of my books on my night table is a small little hardcover, Cars, by Stephen Bayley, c. 2009. It is reviewed at The New York Times here.

The full title: Cars: Freedom, Style, Sex, Power, Motion, Colour, Everything.

From the New York Times review:
Stephen Bayley, the author, is a longtime writer for Car magazine.
In a 22-page but seemingly endless introductory essay, Bayley claims, “This is a book about the 80 or so greatest car designs ever.” He announces: “You will find no references to power outputs, speed, acceleration. . . . My subject is the more elusive one of art.”
Bayley over-proves his point: “The ’57 Chevrolet Bel Air is at least as interesting as a ’57 David Smith.”
Surely sculptors appreciate mention of dimensions and materials. Smith, by the way, learned his craft at a Studebaker plant. Auto enthusiasts greatly admire his welds. Bayley doesn’t mention this, or much else worthwhile.
Bayley seems to think Henry Ford built his first car in 1908 (not true); says “there was a time before cars were designed” (not possible); and calls the 1959 Cadillac “the most absurd, magnificent, appalling and perfect demonstration of consumerism without morals.” (It was just an ugly car.)
Bayley natters mystifyingly about General Motors’ midcentury styling chief, Harley Earl: “He flew on the inaugural flight of the Boeing 707 and was filmed eating a banana.”
The pages of “Cars” are littered with inapposite quotations:
Everywhere,
Giant finned cars nose
forward like fish;
A savage servility
Slides by on grease.
                            Robert Lowell
Didn’t the mental hospital take Lowell’s license away?
I don't know anything about cars, but I had the same feeling as the reviewer when I first read the book. But the book turned out to be a great jumping off point to learn a bit more about designers and designs.

For those interested, here are the cars featured by Bayley:

Cars
Stephen Bayley
c. 2009

1908
US
Ford
Model T
1934
France
Citroen
11CV Traction Avant
1935
US
Ford
Lincoln Zephyr
1936
US
Chrysler
Airflow
1939
Germany
BMW
328 Mille Miglia
1941
US
Willys Overland
Jeep
1947
Italy
Consorzio
Cisitalia
1948
US
GM
Cadillac ‘61
1948
Great Britain
Jaguar
XK 120
1948
Great Britain
Land Rover
Series 1
1949
Germany
Porsche
356
1949
France
Citroen
2CV
1949
Germany
Volkswagen
Beetle
1949
US
Ford
49 Ford
1949
Sweden
Saab
92
1950
Germany
Volkswagen
Transporter
1951
Italy
Pininfarina
Lancia Aurelia B20 GT
1952
Great Britain
Bentley
R-Type Continental
1953
US
Studebaker 
Starlight
1953
France
Panhard
Dyna
1953
Great Britain
AC
Ace
1953
US
Chevrolet
Corvette
1954
Germany
Mercedes-Benz
300 SL
1954
US
Ford
Thunderbird
1954
Italy
Alfa Romeo
Giulietta Sprint
1955
Italy
Lancia Aurelia
B24
1955
Great Britain
Morris Garages
MGA
1955
Italy
Fiat
600
1955
France
Citroen
DS
1955
Germany
BMW
507
1956
Sweden
Volvo
Amazon 120
1956
Italy
Fiat
Multipla
1957
US
Chevrolet
Bel Air
1957
US
Ford
Fairlane 500 Skyliner
1957
Great Britain
Lotus
Elite
1957
Italy
Fiat
500
1958
US
Nash
Metropolitan
1959
Great Britain
Jaguar
Mark II
1959
Sweden
Volvo
P1800
1959
US
Chevrolet
Corvair
1959
Great Britain
Austin
A40
1959
Great Britain
Mini
Mini
1959
US
GM
Cadillac Eldorado Biarritz
1961
US
Ford
Lincoln Continental
1961
Great Britain
Jaguar
E-Type
1961
Germany
BMW
1500
1961
Germany
NSU
Prinz
1961
Italy
Alfa Romeo
Giulia
1961
France
Renault
4
1962
Italy
Lancia Flavia
Zagato
1963
US
Ford
Cortina
1963
Germany
Porsche
911
1963
GM
Buick
Riviera
1963
Great Britain
Rover
P6
1963
Germany
Mercedes-Benz
SL
1963
US
Chevrolet 
Corvette
1963
France
Panhard
24CT
1963
Italy
Ferrari
250 GTO
1964
US
Ford
Mustang
1964
US
Pontiac
GTO
1965
Japan
Toyota
2000GT
1966
US
GM
Toronado
1966
Japan
Toyota
Corolla
1966
Sweden
Volvo
144
1966
Italy
Alfa Romeo
Duetto Spider
1967
Germany
NSU
Ro80
1967
Italy
Alfa Romeo
Montreal
1968
Italy
Ferrari
Daytona
1968
Great Britain
Jaguar
XJ6
1970
France
Citroen
SM
1970
Great Britain
Ranger Rover
Range Rover
1971
Italy
Alfa Romeo
Alfasud
1971
Italy
Fiat
130 Coupe
1971
Italy
Lamborghini
Countach
1972
Germany
BMW
5 Series
1972
France
Renault
5
1974
Germany
Volkswagen
Golf
1977
Sweden
Saab
Turbo
1979
Italy
Fiat
Panda
1982
US
Ford
Sierra
1982
Germany
Audi
100
1992
France
Renault
Twingo
1998
Germany
Daimler-Benz
smart
1999
France
Renault
Avantime
2002
Japan
Nissan
Cube
2003
Germany
BMW
5