Investing -- Commentary -- April 29, 2024

Locator: 47100INV.

In all my years of investing -- since 1984 -- wow, that's 40 years -- hopefully I've learned something along the way -- I've never seen anything like this market. 

I cannot recall any time when the best sector surged, like the current tech sector surged, and seems to be "real." This is unlike the dot-com surge/bubble in the 1990s (Investopedia) which I remember very, very well. 

We won't know for several years if it's another bubble but right now, unlike the dot-com bubble, the surging sector -- the tech sector actually has a product to sell and can't keep up with demand. 

So, there's that. An AI-surge that doesn't seem to be an AI-bubble.

Then this: this is the longest bull market ever. Again, this is the longest bull market in history. It began in 2009 and any pullback was an anomaly -- the 2020 - 2021 Covid lockdown -- smart investors kept investing through that pullback and by 2023, the bull market trend was back on track.

So, there's that. The longest bull market in history.

Then, this: the bull market shows no slowing despite the Fed doing what it can to slow the market. That's not their mandate, but that's what the Fed is doing -- call it "collateral damage" --  trying to tame inflation. 

So, there's that. 

But this is what's really, really huge.

The huge demographic change between what's going on now and what was going on during the past five bubbles.

Right now, the largest transfer of wealth in the history of humankind.

**********************
QQQ

Link here.

We'll talk about this later.

Chart Of The Day -- April 29, 2024

Locator: 47099B.

Link here. This absolutely destroys "Hubbert's peak theory." But we knew this years ago.

Now, back to the EIA charts. The EIA link is here.

It seems the EIA was concentrating on the one-year change from 2021 to 2022. 

The bigger story is the "Bakken revolution" -- a metonym for the US shale revolution which began slowly in 2000 in Montana Bakken and then took off in 2007 in the North Dakota Bakken. The Bakken reached its stride in 2012 at which time the Permian began to take off.

So, let's run the numbers based on the graphs.

Crude oil:

• 2000: 22 billion bbls
• 2007: 20 billion bbls (an actual decrease, y/y)
• 2012: parabolic to 30 billion bbls -- up 50% between 2007 and 2012 -- five years
• 2013: peak up to that year -- 40 billion bbls, doubled in thirteen years (from 2000)

In this same time period, Saudi Arabia's reserves remained constant.

• 2015 - 2016: another record set, 48 million bbls
• 2022: trending toward 50 million bbls -- which would represent an increase from 20 million bbls in 2005 to 50 million bbls in 2022 -- is that a 150% increase over seventeen years?

Again, in the same period, Saudi Arabia's reserves remained constant.

This is what bothers me, surprises me, irritates me -- the EIA focused on a one-year change, from 2021 to 2022. Yes, they showed the graphics, but the real story is the 150% increase in US crude oil reserves in half my investing lifetime.

Natural gas?

• from a low of 190 TCF in the 1990s to 700 TCF in 2022
• (700 - 190) / 190 = 2.68 = a 268% jump in reserves.

Holy mackerel. 

I often make simple arithmetic errors and I often misread reports; if any of this is important to you, go to the source. 

Can you imagine what the numbers would have been had we had a national government that actually supported the crude oil / natural gas industry?

***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.63 -- drops 1.45%.

Active rigs: 42.

One new permit, #40703:

• Operator: BR
• Field: Antelope (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• BR has a permit for a Bohmbach well, NENW 26-153-94, 
• to be sited 325 FNL and 3124 FWL

Monthly Personal Electricity Statement -- April, 2024

Locator: 47098ELECTRICITY.

Electricity rates by state, April, 2024, link here. 

Electricity bill, north Texas. Household energy: only electricity, no natural gas. Utility says their electricity is 100% renewable. 

My rate runs about 15.6 cents per kWh, slightly higher than the "advertised" 14.25 cents, up slightly from 14.11 cents one year ago.

Compare with:

• ND: 9.88 cents
• MN: 14.04 cents (lots of renewable energy)
• CA: 29.49 (3x ND; 2x MN)
• MA: 28.34 cents (3x ND; 2x MN)

My monthly consumption is running about 450 kWh / month = 6,000 kWh annualized.

Average consumption across the US:

Manic Monday, Part 2 -- April 29, 2024

Locator: 47097B.

The two most important data points / investing stories today:

• boom: young Americans' wealth boom (tell me again how bad the US economy is)

• Domino's Pizza, link here, up $15 / share; up >3% Monday morning:

***********************
Renting Is Cheaper Than Buying

CNBC. Link here.

I really get a kick out of this. 

All things being equal and if I had all the money in the world, I would prefer to own than rent. In fact, own several houses across the country. LOL.

But having said that, I see the expense of owning a home almost every day watching homeowners "maintain" their home. Especially if they have a pool! Wow. 

*******************************
She's Not Gone Yet, But She's Leaving

There's a reason this song was posted. I wonder if folks will figure it out.

Link here.

Personal Investing -- Actionable "To-Do" List Now

Locator: 47096PERSINV.

I'm starting a new series on investing that I can share with my extended family members, most of whom have Schwab accounts but little understanding about investing.

Anything I write here is meant only for my extended family members and no other readers. It is a starting point for discussion among the family members. Nothing is written in stone. These posts will be updated as conditions change. They will eventually be collected and linked under the "Personal Investing" tab at the top of the blog.

****************************
The Actionable To-Do List

These are the actions my extended family member needs to take now:

• set up a Schwab self-directed Roth IRA for himself
• set up a Schwab self-directed Roth IRA for spouse
• begin downsizing section B of the Schwab cartoon and moving that cash (eventually equities) into the Schwab self-directed Roth IRAs

Long-term: section B should be eliminated and all assets moved into section A. This may take up to five years, possibly longer based on tax implications. 

Section B: review dividend re-investment for each equity.

Manic Monday -- April 29, 2024

Locator: 47095INV.

Mercedes Benz: Apple out, Google in. Link here. Says EVs are the future. 

Quick, the acronym "SMB"?

ATT: ticker action amazing. Simply amazing. Who would have thought? Pays 6.45%. In the last six months, up 13%. Compare with US Treasuries.

US Treasuries, link here:

Anything but boring:

• link here, WSJ
• link here, last August (2023), Investopedia
• link here, last September (2023), Barron's
• link here, last November (2023), Forbes

Kura Revolving Sushi: coming to a mall near you. Again, another story how great restaurants are doing right now. The "good ones" are all expanding. Link here.

Amazon: deliveries getting even faster. Link here. On another note, if you ever want to get a feeling for how much money slips through your fingers on your credit cards, look at the "cash-back" that builds up over time. My "cash-back" account at Amazon would allow me to order books "for free" (don't take that out of context) for the next five years. Wow. 

Trans Mountain Oil: Reliance buys its first oil delivered by Trans Mountain pipeline. Link here. 

Deflation in Texas? Link here.

The road to California, link here.

What have we been saying on the blog? Don't even get me started. Link here.

Natural Gas -- Fuel For The 21st Century -- China, Qatar Partner -- Biden Puts New US LNG Export Moves On Hold -- April 29, 2024

Locator: 47094NATGAS.

Link here.

Qatar walks the talk: free market capitalism.

The US stumbles.

Willie Nelson — 91 Today — April 29, 2024

Locator: 47093INV.

AAPL: for my extended family member concerned about the future of AAPL, this would be a great day to sell some / all of your AAPL.  

The two most important data points / investing stories today:

• boom: young Americans' wealth boom (tell me again how bad the US economy is)

• Domino's Pizza, link here, up $15 / share; up >3% Monday morning:

Personal investing, added to positions in:

• AVGO, by rule
• CAT, by rule

***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $83.48.

Tuesday, April 30, 2024: 64 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 263 for the year
40233, conf, Empire North Dakota, Bufflehead 29-3A 1H,
40122, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 7-15-14TFH,
40121, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 1 SLH,
39525, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 4H,
39463, conf, Hess, EN-Bakke-157-93-1522H-5, 
39347, conf, Hess, Ti-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-4,

Monday, April 29, 2024: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 257 for the year
39524, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 2H,
39346, conf, Hess, TI-T Lalim-LW-157-95-0214H-1,

Sunday, April 28, 2024: 56 for the month; 56 for the quarter, 255 for the year
39523, conf, Kraken, Blue 2-35-26-2H,
37520, conf, BR, Mazama 2C UTFH,

Saturday, April 27, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: long-duration energy storage to play critical role in renewables buildout, grid reliability.

The intermittent nature of renewable energy is a well-documented thorn in the side of efforts to decarbonize the power grid, especially with more wind and solar generation coming online every year. But while those sources of clean energy are not available all the time, it’s also true that they can sometimes produce more power than transmission lines or a power grid can handle during other periods, leading to curtailments. An increasingly important tool that can lessen the impact of both problems is power storage. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll address the limitations of today’s storage options and look at how long-duration energy storage (LDES) could play a critical role in the years ahead.

Imperative to any energy system is a way to balance variations in supply and demand — i.e., storage. Storage infrastructure for primary energy sources like crude oil and natural gas has grown and matured over the past century and we’ve done a lot of blogs in the past covering the ins and outs. These systems are well understood and efficient and, despite the push to decarbonization, can and will continue to be the primary storage mechanism serving the market for as long as fossil fuels dominate energy production. Efficient and cost-effective power storage has been a much tougher nut to crack, so it hasn’t been developed to the same extent as the primary sources mentioned above.

That said, the continued adoption of renewable power generation has catalyzed the development of electricity storage. Large-scale deployment is in its infancy but it has the potential to play a more significant role down the road, especially in states like California and Texas that already have significant amounts of renewable capacity online. With a rising emphasis on renewables, the development of new solutions has been gaining momentum and has led to a myriad of potential strategies — all with benefits and drawbacks. Some, like pumped hydro, have been around since the dawn of the 20th century but are getting renewed attention. Then there are the more creative solutions: molten salt, heat engines, gravity batteries, flywheels and, our favorite, hydrogen. We’ll talk about a couple of these in today’s blog. But we’ll start with the elephant in the room when it comes to power storage: batteries.

Earnings This Week -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47092INV.

Link here. 

Sunday night, pre-market:

*********************
Whatever

Thomas Friedman, wiki. 

• criticized for both weak writing style and a gravitation towards voguish positions
• has won three Pulitzer prizes

Okay.

Something has changed. Either YouTube or my "account." Regardless, it's like 1000% better and it seemed to have happened overnight. I have no idea what happened. Can't explain it. All I know, I used to love YouTube. Now, I really, really love YouTube. Amazing.

That's in the background. In the foreground, an opened book. When it came out in 2005, it was a bestseller, The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century, Thomas L. Friedman.

Holy mackerel it's a great book. I picked up a hardback edition in pristine condition for $3.00 while visiting Portland last week.

It's a great companion book to Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology, Chris Miller. 

In 2005 I was two years from retiring from the United States Air Force, and was soon to leave some wonderful, wonderful people behind and I was incredibly depressed. Not as depressed as I was in 1993, but it was severe. 

In 2005 I was reading voraciously but I had no interest in reading books like The World Is Flat. I'm glad I didn't. I would not have appreciated it in 2005, not as much as I appreciate it now.

Friedman was born in 1953; I was born in 1951. We are exact contemporaries. We have experienced the very same events, beginning with the Berlin Wall coming down in 1989. Netscape went public in 1995. 

Link here.

Restaurant Technology -- Why Restaurants Might Be Surviving -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47091ECONOMY.

Restaurants defy predictions of a recession. Link here.

Link here.

To some extent, there may be some "truth" in this article. I'm not convinced.

And then this:

Permian Producers -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47090B.

Link here. 

Link here.

****************
LNG Export Terminals

LNG export terminal: another one to come on line in mid-2024. I still remember the reader some years ago who wrote to tell me the LNG export story was all hyped; nothing to it. Link here.

Link here.

Google Plaquemines on the blog for additional information.

TTE: previously posted. TTE getting closer to listing on NYSE. Link here.

Personal Inheritance -- Giving -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47089PERSONALINVESTING.

I'm starting a new series on investing that I can share with my extended family members, most of whom have Schwab accounts but little understanding about investing.

This information is based on lessons learned during thirty-plus years of investing and saving for retirement. This information supplements, does not replace personal reading, research, and professional advice.

Anything I write here is meant only for my extended family members and no other readers. It is a starting point for discussion among the family members. Nothing is written in stone. These posts will be updated as conditions change. They will eventually be collected and linked under the "Personal Investing" tab at the top of the blog. 

This is meant for extended family members who:

• are not retired:
• report less than $250,00.01 annually in earned income to the IRS
• have limited investing experience

This information holds true for the extended family member who has a financial advisor (paid or otherwise).

Likewise, kids or no kids, it does not matter.

Purpose of this series:

• start the conversation
• work out the process of intergenerational wealth transfer
• set up investment, retirement, educational accounts
• begin transfer of funds to these accounts
• review the history of / the evolution of investments that occurred over the past 30 years
• "to know where you are going, one needs to know what you've been"

Starting early could give heirs several years of financial education before they have to handle their inheritance on their own.

****************************
When to Start The Process
Of Passing Wealth To Heirs

Binary:

• start transferring wealth as early as possible;
• transfer wealth after death

Pros and cons discussed with heirs.

The family elected to begin the process as early as possible.

• con: ultimate inheritance may be less, but not necessarily
• pro: heirs will have opportunity to learn about wealth management

Timing:

• for us, there was almost a "natural" age when to begin the process: the age at which RMDs were required by the IRS

**********************
The Process

Amount to be distributed. At a minimum:

• 30% of all RMDs set aside for taxes
• 70% of all RMDs distributed to adult children and to all grandchildren
• to adult children: max out IRAs, 401(k)s of adult children
• for all children, fund 529s to extent necessary to cover anticipated college expenses

Timing:

• begin the process as soon as RMDs are required; as soon as RMDs are taken
• assist adult children in establishing Schwab accounts if they have not yet done that
• through Schwab, fund heirs' retirement accounts and 529s

PSX -- Dividend History

Locator: 47088DIV.

COP: Dividend History

Locator: 47087DIV.

Personal Investing -- RMDs

Locator: 47086INV.

Link here.

BRK Vs Two Mutual Funds -- April 28, 20242

Locator: 47085INV.

Comparing BRK-B with two mutual funds: 1 year, 5 years, and max (though max doesn't go back very far):

• VTSAX: link here.
  
• TWCUX: link here.

At the links, type in BRK-B or any other ticker you want to compare with the mutual fund.

Personal Investing -- Still Working, Not Retired -- Looking At The Schwab Cartoon, Part 2

Locator: 47084INV.

I'm starting a new series on investing that I can share with my extended family members, most of whom have Schwab accounts but little understanding about investing.

This information is based on lessons learned during thirty-plus years of investing and saving for retirement. This information supplements, does not replace personal reading, research, and professional advice.

Anything I write here is meant only for my extended family members and no other readers. It is a starting point for discussion among the family members. Nothing is written in stone. These posts will be updated as conditions change. They will eventually be collected and linked under the "Personal Investing" tab at the top of the blog. 

This is meant for extended family members who:

• are not retired:
• report less than $250,00.01 annually in earned income to the IRS
• have limited investing experience

This information holds true for the extended family member who has a financial advisor (paid or otherwise).

Likewise, kids or no kids, it does not matter.

****************************
For Extended Family Members Who Are Still Working,
Not Retired

Goal: pay no taxes whatsoever on investments. My attitude: if you are still working and investing, you should be paying absolutely no taxes (capital gains / dividends) on your investments. If you are paying taxes on your investments and making no plans to stop that you are doing things all wrong.

If you max out your retirement accounts and 529s, it's time to start investing in real property but that's a topic for another day.

The Schwab cartoon:

 
Focus on sections A and C. 

Confirm with knowledgeable sources, the numbers change annually, but roughly:
    __ IRA contributions this year (2024): $7,000 per individual = $14,000 per couple
        __ Roth IRAs and not traditional IRAs, we can discuss reasons later
    __ 401(k) contribution: $23,000
    __ 529 contributions; two children; no max; set a goal for each year; as a starting point, I'll recommend $5,000 per child = $10,000
    __ total so far: $47,000 for sections A and C

Bottom line: don't even talk to me about putting "new" money into anything but sections A and C unless you have maxed out sections A and C.

Section B:

• put no new money in section B
  
• "buy and sell" within section B
• any new positions, do not check off the box "automatic reinvestment" 
• there's an argument for automatic reinvestment but generally not a good idea
• this made sense years ago when DRIPs were in fashion to avoid commissions
• there are no commissions any more in Schwab accounts

Section A: this is a biggie

• set up a new self-directed IRA / self-directed spousal IRA in section A
• if you "want" the excitement of trading, do it within a self-directed IRA
• any cash raised through a sale in section B, move that cash into new or existing IRAs in section A
• you can trade willy-nilly in your self-directed IRA and not face tax consequences; trading within section B will result in tax consequences
• you've already incurred a taxable event when you sell something in section B, so why not move it into your self-directly IRA and quit paying taxes on capital gains and dividends
  

Traditional IRA or Roth IRA:

• the only "good" thing that a traditional IRA provides that a Roth IRA does not: a very, very minor tax break
• the tax break makes you feel good
• in fact, the tax break the traditional IRA provides is nothing -- absolutely nothing -- compared to the tax advantages of the Roth IRA
• if you really, really want that tax break that a traditional IRA provides, invest only in a Roth IRA but calculate the taxes you would save by investing in a traditional IRA: I will pay you that amount of savings in cash when you file your taxes
• note: in 2033, RMDs required starting at age 75.  
• Roth IRAs: RMDs never required.
  

Investing Tip Of The Day? AVGO -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47083INV.

Link here.

Current market cap: $600 billion.

Analysts: the next member of the trillion-dollar club. 

From the linked article:

Semiconductor and technology company Broadcom has seen its stock gain ~122% over the past year, triggered by the AI boom. In comparison, AI powerhouse Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has seen its stock price gain 220%. This raises the question: can Broadcom emulate Nvidia’s success and potentially join the $1 trillion market cap club? The answer appears to be yes. Given its attractive AI product offerings, solid business fundamentals, and relatively low valuation, I will buy AVGO stock at its current price.

P/E: 50.One-year comparison with AMD? AVGO did better. AMD's P/E: 300. No typo. 300.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

Inflation Watch -- Airlines, Tacos, Fast Food -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47082INFLATION.

DFW to Portland, OR:

• last year, 2023 -- $425.
• last week, April, 2024: $350
• coming up, June, 2024: $265.
  

***********************
Restaurants

1. It's getting very, very expensive to dine out. Period. Dot. 

But that doesn't mean you can't find bargains. #1 mistake: expensive drinks. Seniors (generally, "55+" ) get very, very good deals. Often the "kids eat for free" does not apply when the adult is a senior ordering from the "55+" menu but often (?) the wait staff will over look that, especially if one is a regular.

1a. Restaurants defy predictions of a recession. Link here.

2. Bargains: iHop -- generally speaking, kids under the age of 10 years, eat free, if one adult orders one entree. Drinks are not free. Beware. I assume if iHop is offering this deal, so are others. Recommendation: iHop on weekday afternoons: never on the weekends for breakfast.

3. McDonald's: I still find McDonald's an incredible bargain. 

At the Portland, Oregon, airport yesterday, a Big Mac combo with medium fries, $9.25, total, no tax. That was at the airport, with medium diet Coke. I no longer have a big appetite and that was way more than I needed. Next time: regular hamburger and small fries. I doubt this meal was much less expensive a year ago. Even if only $7.50 last year, a jump from $7.50 to $9.25 is inconsequential when that's your only mean while traveling that day. Stop at the bar, however, waiting for your flight, and one drink -- and who orders just one drink? -- would set you back about $10. That's where the real problem lies.

4. California: sticker shock. Link to WSJ. I might come back to this. From my perspective: a lot of whining. The $20-minimum wage is only fair. Remember: fast food employees are not tipped.

5. Is "taco" the next "pizza"? Link to Texas Monthly. This tells me sit-down restaurants are doing just fine, thank you. 

We have both Torchy's Tacos and Velvet Taco near where we live. We can walk to Torchy's. A five-minute drive to Velvet Taco. We've never been to Torchy's. Will go today to see what it's all about. Velvet Taco is our favorite. Our oldest granddaughter introduced us to Velvet Taco. Tacos went replace pizza for home delivery; they still haven't figured out home delivery for tacos. Someone will. Just a matter of time. But my hunch: pizza is home delivery; tacos are alternative to McDonald's, Wendy's, and Chick-Fil-A. Though adding "Chick-Fil-A" in that last sentence is probably a stretch.

Velvet Taco: founded in Dallas; home-based in Plano, just north of Dallas now.

Torchy's: founded in Austin.

6. Investing: I've removed MCD from my Big Cap "bucket." It was a binary decision. MCD vs CAT? I'm staying with CAT. No recommendation. See disclaimers.

BRK And The Kiplinger Report -- The 13F, 1Q24, Part 2 -- April 28, 202

Locator: 47081BRK. 

Barron's: BRK and Warren Buffett. 

For some 30,000 Berkshire shareholders expected to attend the meeting, the future will be the focus as Buffett fields questions for more than five hours in what could be his only public appearance of the year. Joining Buffett, 93, on the dais will be Vice Chairman Greg Abel, 61, likely tasked with the role of Buffett’s successor as CEO, and Vice Chairman Ajit Jain, 72, who runs the company’s insurance operations. Together they will answer questions small and large: Can the stock beat the S&P 500 index SPX 1.02% ? Why have share repurchases declined since 2021? Can the company’s new management prove anywhere as capable as Buffett? Should Berkshire break up?

The "Warren Buffett watch" is tracked here, tabbed at the top of the blog.  

Recent posts devoted to Buffett:

• February 25, The Letter.
• 13F, 1Q24, part 1.
• March 19, 2024, part 1.
• March 19, 2024, part 2.

Now, for "13F, part 2." 

I finally posted my Buffett update after several iterations. There are probably errors -- content errors and typographical errors. But at least I understand it now. If the Buffett story is important to you, go to the source. Ignore my posts. 

I'm not going to go through it all over but for the past six months or so, there have been a lot of stories on Buffett and Japan:

• why Buffett got excited about Japan; and,
• the huge investments Buffett made in Japan
• how Buffett made a "killing" on his Japanese trades
  

So, let's look at the 13F or the news reports when Buffett jumped in and bought "Japan." These were the holdings (and first mention?) of these Japanese companies, the 13F from September 30, 2023:
the narrative: 

Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo, which are as of June 12, 2023. Tokyo Stock Exchange prices are converted to U.S. dollars from Japanese yen. Mitsubishi shares are adjusted for a 3-for-1 stock split on January 1, 2024.

At that CNBC link, scroll down to see the portfolio, the company, and percent of the BRK portfolio:

• Itochu: 1.4%
• Marubeni: 0.6%
• Mitsubishi: 2.1%
• Mitsui: 1.6%
• Sumitomo: 0.7%.

From Forbes, February 15, 2024:

Because the 13F does not include international stocks, Berkshire Hathaway initially announced the acquisition of about 5% of five Japanese trading companies at the end of August 2020. These holdings are Itochu Corp., Marubeni Corp., Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co. Ltd., and Sumitomo Corp. Buffett revealed in April 2023 that Berkshire increased its stakes in these companies to 7.4%. Buffett indicated that these were intended to be long-term holdings, and Berkshire may still increase its stake to 9.9%.

If I did the math correctly, the previous "percents" add up to 6.4%. So, apparently the stakes have increased to 7.4%. This doesn't necessarily mean more buying, the stocks could have appreciated that much to affect the "percent of the portfolio."

Sunday, April 28, 2024

Locator: 47080B.

Clearing off the desktop. 

These will be the stories I will get to sometime during the day.

Back to Buffett. 

I posted my Buffett update, but it went through several iterations. There are probably errors -- content errors and typographical errors. But at least I understand it now. If the Buffett story is important to you, go to the source. Ignore my posts.

Readers: I have several comments to reply to, but they will have to wait. Sorry. It's in the contract.

Other stories in the queue, or "everything everywhere happening all at once."

• LNG export terminal: another one to come on line in mid-2024. I still remember the reader some years ago who wrote to tell me the LNG export story was all hyped; nothing to it. Link here.
  
• the Permian is getting a lot of attention. Again.
• TTE.
• Inflation, fast food, California.
• gasoline prices.
  
• Nashville is booming.
  

Earnings this next week.

Investing:

• RMDs

Hess BL-Iverson And CA-Anderson Smith Pads -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47079B.

The well:

• 39582, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-LW-155-96-2634H-1, Capa,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	23082	76962
1-2024	30374	61332
12-2023	26427	47792
11-2023	50793	86252

The map: 

 The pads:

• the northern pad: the BL-Iverson wells in Beaver Lodge; all are producing except #36684, AB

• the southern pad: the CA-Anderson Smith wells; all are producing and all are huge wells;

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 47078B.

Wednesday, May 8, 2024: 9 for the month; 73 for the quarter, 272 for the year

• 40119, conf, Neptune Operating, Heen South 5-8-17 7H, Bear Creek,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	0	176

Tuesday, May 7, 2024: 8 for the month; 72 for the quarter, 271 for the year

• 37106, conf, BR, Carlsbad 3A UTFH, Twin Valley, npd,

Monday, May 6, 2024: 7 for the month; 71 for the quarter, 270 for the year

• 39348, conf, Hess, TI-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-3, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	13834	16214
1-2024	16651	20374
12-2023	18667	21990
11-2023	19772	25415

Sunday, May 5, 2024: 6 for the month; 70 for the quarter, 269 for the year

• 40277, conf, BR, Carlsbad 1B UTFH, Twin Valley, npd,

Saturday, May 4, 2024: 5 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 268 for the year

• 39465, conf, Hess, EN-Bakke-157-93-1522H-6, Sorkness,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	9293	13225
1-2024	9660	15367
12-2023	9511	11033
11-2023	14875	12814

Thursday, May 2, 2024: 4 for the month; 68 for the quarter, 267 for the year

• 40177, conf, Five States Operating, RH 1-16H, Rocky Hill, npd,
• 39582, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-LW-155-96-2634H-1, Capa,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	23082	76962
1-2024	30374	61332
12-2023	26427	47792
11-2023	50793	86252

Wednesday, May 1, 2024: 2 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 265 for the year

• 40120, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 6-15-14TFH, Big Bend, npd,
• 39526, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 3H, Burg, npd,

Tuesday, April 30, 2024: 64 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 263 for the year

• 40233, conf, Empire North Dakota, Bufflehead 29-3A 1H, Starbuck, npd,
• 40122, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 7-15-14TFH, Big Bend, npd,
• 40121, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, npd,
• 39525, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 4H, Burg, npd,
• 39463, conf, Hess, EN-Bakke-157-93-1522H-5, Sorkness,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	11203	14708
1-2024	11510	19709
12-2023	10296	10931
11-2023	12566	12570

• 39347, conf, Hess, Ti-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-4, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	11999	15182
1-2024	11751	11696
12-2023	18502	24093
11-2023	25703	13448
10-2023	844	0

Monday, April 29, 2024: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 257 for the year

• 39524, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 2H, Burg, npd,
• 39346, conf, Hess, TI-T Lalim-LW-157-95-0214H-1, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	12793	15937
1-2024	11505	10869
12-2023	9429	10459
11-2023	18422	18584
10-2023	1855	0

Sunday, April 28, 2024: 56 for the month; 56 for the quarter, 255 for the year

• 39523, conf, Kraken, Blue 2-35-26-2H, Burg, npd,
• 37520, conf, BR, Mazama 2C UTFH, Elidah, npd,