Tuesday, August 17, 2021

AAPL: One Year Ago, AAPL Target Price -- $105 On August 19, 2021. Today, AAPL Trading At $150 -- August 17, 2021

A reminder for an "event" popped up on my calendar today.

I posted the reminded on August 19, 2020, with a reminder to look at is on August 19, 2021.

Here's the "event" as seen on my calendar:

On August 19, 2020, AAPL was trading for $468. The target for AAPL one year out was $425. 

On August 28, 2020, AAPL split 4 - 1. The corresponding new prices:

  • August 28, 2020: $468 --> $117
  • The target for August 19, 2021: $106.25
  • In fact, AAPL on August 17 trading for $!50.

Covid-19 UIpdate -- A Graph That Surprised Me -- But Corroborates What I've Said From The Beginning -- August 17, 2021

It's late, I'm tired.  I've run out of energy to write much. I'm almost too exhausted to post the graphics.

So, I'll post the links first, then maybe the graphics later tonight.

Link here: Oregon cases_1.

Link here: Oregon vaccinations_1.


Link here: vaccinations by state_2. Texas, Florida, Oregon. Dynamic.

Link here: vaccinations by state_1.  No graphic. Dynamic.

Link here: google, vaccinations by state. No graphic.

Link here: social comments regarding Oregon today. 

Four New Permits; Twenty-Three Active Rigs; WTI Holds -- August 17, 2021

Active rigs:

$66.67
8/17/202108/17/202008/17/201908/17/201808/17/2017
Active Rigs2312616053

*Active rigs: per NDIC today, 23 active rigs:

  • CLR (6): Dvirnak, Pletan, Tallahassee, LCU Ralph Federal, Charolais South Federal, LCU Ralph,
  • Hess (3): CA-E Burdick, BB-State A, EN-Zunich,
  • Marathon (2): Goth 44-11H, Goth Gene 44-23TFH,
  • Koda Resources (2): Stout 3409-1BH, Stout 3410-2BH,
  • Petro-Hunt: Murphy 162-100-4B-9-2H,
  • Bruin: FB Leviathan 151-94-27A-34-12T,
  • Slawson: Muskrat Federal 8-28-33H,
  • Oasis: Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 6BX,
  • PetroShale: Anderson South 2TFH,
  • Whiting: Maki 11-27-2HU,
  • Ovintiv: Rolla 152-97-1-12-13H,
  • Kraken: Wallace 6-7 3H,
  • RimRock: FBIR Johnson 13X-7F,
  • Hunt: Blue Ridge 159-100-6-7H 4,

Four new permits, #38489 - #38492, inclusive:

  • Operators Petro-Hunt (3); Enerplus
  • Fields: Charlson (McKenzie County); Fort Berthold (Eagle Nest)
  • Comments:
    • Enerplus has a permit for a Fort Berthold well in SESE 19-148-94, Eagle Nest oil field
      • the well will be sited 733 FSL and 788 FEL
    • Petro-Hunt has permits for three State wells in SWSW 8-153-95, Charlson oil field
      • the wells be sited between 249 FSL and 250 FSL and 750 FWL and between 750 FWL and 640 FWL

One permit renewed:

  • 32373, XTO, Hartel 14X-23F, McKenzie County

ConocoPhillips Looking To Sell Bakken Assets -- August 17, 2021

Updates

Later, 10:16 p.m. CT: see first comment. A reader comes up with what he thinks COP (BR) will sell in the Bakken. From the reader: 

My guess is they sell their field in Montana west of Fairview, and the wells they have that are scattered out south of Highway 200. They keep the Corral Creek unit, and their fields around Keene, and Johnson’s Corner. Enerplus could easily pick up the wells that are south of 200, as they are mixed in with the wells Enerplus bought from Hess. Not sure if Enerplus would buy the Montana field or not but I believe they do have some wells in Montana already.  

Original Post

Link here

Montana and North Dakota Bakken assets. Could fetch $200 million. 

This is clearly not all of COP's assets in the Bakken. If numbers are accurate, then simply doing what Hess did: consolidating acreage in the Bakken, selling off "non-core" assets in North Dakota and Montana. 

See link at twitter, with comments. 

Most likely buyer? Enerplus? Depends on where the non-core acreage is. 

But $200 million / $2,000 per acre works out to 100,000 acres. 

From "operators in the Bakken."

COP (in the Bakken: wholly-owned subsidiary, Burlington Resources) -- is now followed here.

Geopolitics: Iran And The Taliban -- This Is 3-D Chess, Not Checkers Or Dominoes -- August 17, 2021

From Bloomberg, July 11, 2021:

Sometimes, the enemy of an enemy is an even greater enemy. For Iran, the humiliation of the U.S. in Afghanistan brings to the fore a fiercer foe. If the threat from the Taliban is not as existential to the Islamic Republic as the military presence of its most powerful adversary, the triumphant militia nonetheless poses a grave danger at an especially inconvenient moment. 

Although Iran has stepped up its diplomatic outreach to the Taliban, the government of incoming President Ebrahim Raisi, facing growing discontent at home amid fading hopes of quick economic relief from the West, must now reckon with renewed perils in the east. The Taliban may have no interest in bringing down the Iranian regime, but its ascendancy in the Afghan civil war is sure to send fresh waves of refugees flooding across the 900-kilometer (560-mile) border between the countries, accompanied by a spike in drug and human trafficking, as well as increased terrorist activity. 

It also endangers trade, which sanctions-shackled Iran can ill afford, and jeopardizes an ambitious railway project that would channel Afghan exports to Iranian ports, and thence to the wider world.

So any sense of schadenfreude in Tehran over President Joe Biden’s attempts to rationalize the American withdrawal from Afghanistan will have been stifled by the alarming news that the Taliban has taken control of Islam Qala, a key border post between the two countries. Reports from the area say Afghan security forces and customs officials fled to the Iranian side when the militia arrived.

Islam Qala is not only an important crossing point for bilateral trade, it is also the gateway to the Afghan city of Herat, the location of a large Iranian consulate. In 1998, militiamen allied with the Taliban slaughtered 11 Iranians there, including nine diplomats, bringing the two countries to within a whisker of war. 

Much more at the link. 

And this link, also, or if you can't get past the paywall: (graphic pending)

 

Sometimes it takes a one-term president to do something no predecessor was able to accomplish. To paraphrase a former SecState: what does it matter now?

Monthly DUC Spreadsheet: Bakken Drilled, Completed, DUCs -- July, 2021, Data

Updates

August 17, 2021: two screenshots taken from the NDIC; the numbers vary a bit. I assume some numbers are "preliminary"; some are final.


Original Post

A huge "thank you" to the reader who sends this to me every month.  

The chart begins for December, 2013, then monthly through July, 2021. 

The plague year, March, 2020 - February, 2021, in bold. 

DUCs can't increase if drilling doesn't increase. 

How fast can shale "turn"? From ninety-nine wells drilled in January, 2020, down to eighteen wells only six months later.

And, yet, North Dakota total oil production "maintained."






Bakken


Drilled

Completed

DUCs

Dec-13

--

--

570

Jan-14

178

143

605

Feb-14

210

158

657

Mar-14

224

218

663

Apr-14

217

207

673

May-14

226

208

691

Jun-14

236

225

702

Jul-14

250

243

709

Aug-14

226

207

728

Sep-14

256

232

752

Oct-14

186

243

695

Nov-14

209

202

702

Dec-14

224

194

732

Jan-17

62

52

781

Feb-17

51

58

774

Mar-17

78

71

781

Apr-17

78

104

755

May-17

94

82

767

Jun-17

76

105

738

Jul-17

95

103

730

Aug-17

99

110

719

Sep-17

98

97

720

Oct-17

104

110

714

Nov-17

93

86

721

Dec-17

77

65

733

Jan-18

107

72

768

Feb-18

74

74

768

Mar-18

95

90

773

Apr-18

109

110

772

May-18

124

131

765

Jun-18

108

118

755

Jul-18

134

155

734

Aug-18

108

138

704

Sep-18

108

122

690

Oct-18

120

118

692

Nov-18

110

99

703

Dec-18

108

70

741

Jan-19

120

71

790

Feb-19

108

56

842

Mar-19

111

110

843

Apr-19

118

112

849

May-19

127

127

849

Jun-19

118

149

818

Jul-19

122

121

819

Aug-19

122

144

797

Sep-19

110

87

820

Oct-19

116

108

828

Nov-19

96

88

836

Dec-19

94

86

844

Jan-20

99

98

845

Feb-20

94

99

840

Mar-20

94

108

826

Apr-20

69

32

863

May-20

33

14

882

Jun-20

18

11

889

Jul-20

18

22

885

Aug-20

19

27

877

Sep-20

18

52

843

Oct-20

19

42

820

Nov-20

20

34

806

Dec-20

20

51

775

Jan-21

20

47

748

Feb-21

19

28

739

Mar-21

25

47

717

Apr-21

27

52

692

May-21

29

68

653

Jun-21

31

65

619

Jul-21

32

59

592