The Dallas Arch: Northaven Trail Bridge Over US75 -- Just Completed -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45604TX.

Link here for the project.

Map above:

• north side of downtown Dallas
• the red line: the new connector over the highway, connecting multiple local trails
• oval: parking area and entrance to the Northaven Trail on the west side of US 75

I'm looking to bike this new trail connector this week. It's due east of us, about 30 minutes. Might just be one of the most interesting trail connectors in America. We'll see.

US 75 / US 77: Dallas to Oklahoma City.

US 75: Dallas to Tulsa. 

For some, US 75 might be as historic as US 66, and unlike US 66 which is pretty much "history," US 75 is as busy as ever. 

YouTube visualization: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXxQN9ZpxPc (2018).

Analogy Needed? If An Analogy Is Needed: The Dallas Cowboys Defeating The New York Giants In 2023 Opener -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45603RUSSIA.

Link here.

My hunch: US intelligence -- the RC-135 --  gets a lot of the credit.

Closing Out The Weekend -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45602EVS.

Before we get started, the Dallas Cowboys are clobbering the New York Giants, 39 - 0 -- yes, 39 - 0 early in the 4th quarter.

Now back to regular programming:

Three links from a reader:

• the cost of a new battery for a low-mileage $23,000-Chevy Bolt (see below);
• the lack of EV chargers -- even for the US SecEnergy; I still think she is the least smart member of the current president's cabinet;
• China imploding before our eyes. This was all predicted by Peter Zeihan in his 2020 book.

The first two questions EV buyers need to ask:

• how long will the battery last? And how much will a replacement cost?

They need to get the answer in writing. My hunch: no dealer will be willing to put the answers in writing.

No one will buy a "used EV" with a battery older then three years. Unless they feel comfortable replacing the battery.

Library Day -- Part 3 -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45601BOOKS.

Before I get started, it is just me or have others noted that the "southern surge" is almost entirely a "political story." I have not yet seen business magazines spend much time on the "southern surge," nor have I noted any books on the subject from a business perspective. I don't even know how big a story it has become in college policy courses.

Moonshot: Inside Pfizer's Nine-Month Race to Make the Impossible Possible, Dr Albert Bourla, Chairman and CEO, Pfizer, c. 2022. 

Wow, this is going to be fascinating. This book has been added to my "Covid Library."

Salk and Sabin come to mind.

No index. 

Eighteen pages of bibliography.

Chapter titles:

• business not as usual
• what is obvious is not always right
• thinking big makes the impossible possible
• Lightspeed [see Miller's book on the Turkish researchers][aka Warpspeed]
• the ultimate joy
• past, present, future
• manufacturing, the second miracle
• equity: easier said than done
• navigating a political minefield
• a beacon of hope
• the science of trust
• a pro-patient, pro-innovation agenda
• epilogue

I love the opening quote: "What matters is not what happens to you, but how you react to it." -- Epictetus, AD 50 - 135 (a long life in that day and age).

Page 18: wow, wow, wow -- the story of Pfizer partnering with BioNTech in 2018; a start-up founded by children (now PhD researchers) of Turkish migrant workers in Germany. Their focus: cancer treatment using mRNA technology.

Page 32: process of Phase 1, Phase 2, and Phase 3 in bringing a medication to market.

Page 73: the author's own story. It begins with his ancestors who had fled Spain in the late 15th century.

Page 77: Tony Fauci mentioned. First time?

Page 97: "The first patients to receive our Pfizer vaccine against Covid-19 were at University Hospital in the Midlands of England, north of London. Following Margaret Keenan, the second in line was none other than William Shakespeare, then an eighty-one-year-old patient in the frailty ward." [Don't you just love the Brits use of language?]  "It had been 269 days since we started the vaccine's development."

Page 107: then the glossy black-and-white and color photos. Wow. Not one photo of Donald Trump (Warpspeed) but two photos with Joe Biden.

Page 129: "On June 9, during the flight over, I read a New York Times story with the headline "Biden Aims to Bolster US Alliances in Europe." Biden, who will arrive for a series of summit meetings buoyed by a successful vaccination program and rebounding economy, will spend the next week making the case that America is back and ready to lead the west. Mr Biden's overarching task it to deliver the diplomatic serenity that eluded such gatherings during the four years in which Mr Trump scorched long-standing relationships with close allies, threatened to pull out of NATO and embraced Putin and other autocrats, admiring their strength, the article read."

Page 135: vaccine equity. A most interesting subject.

Streaming Wars Coming To A Head -- Update On Disney, Hulu -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45600DIS. 

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

• Home page for tech: link here.
• The cloud: link here.  
• Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
• Spatial computing: link here.
• Generative AI: link here. 

September 10, 2023:

Link here.

AI -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45599AI. 

My home page for tech is here.

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

• Home page for tech: link here.
• The cloud: link here.  
• Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
• Spatial computing: link here.
• Generative AI: link here.
  

Link here.

Library Day -- Part 2 -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45598BOOKS. 

Updates

October 4, 2023: Nobel Prize in Medicine. Link here. 

Original Post 

Wow, this is going to be fascinating. This book has been added to my "Covid Library."

Salk and Sabin come to mind.

I think Algore discoverd the polio vaccine before "it" was a thing, but I could be wrong.

The Vaccine: Inside The Race to Conquer the Covid-19 Pandemic, Joe Miller with Dr Özlem Türeci and
Dr Uğur Şahin, c. 2022.

Creators of thee BioNTech-Pfizer Vaccine.

The children of Turkish migrant workers in Germany: again, why I am not worried about the "southern surge."

Again, the index in this book is lacking. Frustrating.

Page 23: first mention of Bill Gates. Critical. Dr Özlem Türeci and Dr Uğur Şahin who had started BioNTech "a decade earlier," were meeting with Bill Gates in October, 2018, one year before the outbreak. The company, by then, had treated more then four hundred cancer patients with mRNA technology. These efforts had come to the attention of Lynda Stuart, an immunologist and director at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Page 25: second mention of Bill Gates, January, 2020, and now it gets very, very interesting.....HIV and tuberculosis. Bill Gates asked, "Was there potential to develop mRNA-based drugs, in record speed, during a pandemic? Uğur might want to consider preparing a "plug-and-play" (an old term first used byApple) solution for that moment, as a matter of urgency."

More to follow.

The chapter titles summarize the history:

• the outbreak
• Project Lightspeed [WarpSpeed, as some called it]
• the unknowns
• the mRNA Biohackers
• the tests
• forging alliances
• first in human
• on our own
• it works!
• the new normal
• epilogue
  

Library Day -- Part 1 -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45597BOOKS.

Library day.

A reminder: dinosaurs did not swim, they did not fly. They only roamed terra firma.

Ancient Sea Reptiles: Plesiosaurs, Ichthyosaurs, Mosasaurs, and More, Darren Naish, c. 2022.

A Smithsonian Book. The author: a paleontologist. British. 

Years: 252 - 66 million years ago.

Mesozoic: Age of Reptiles.

Triassic, Jurassic, and Cretaceous.

The Mesozoic marine reptiles occupied the roles filled today by seals, dolphins, and whales.

There were five main Mesozoic marine reptile groups:

• shark-shaped ichthyosaurs;
• the (mostly) long-necked plesiosaurs;
• the crocodile-like thalattosuchians or sea crocs;
• the giant swimming lizards known as mosasaurs;
• the sea turtles;

They were not dinosaurs and they were not closely related to them.

************************
Macro-Genealogy

Origin: A Genetic History of the Americas: Jennifer Raff, c. 2022.

I did not care for the "land acknowledgment statement" but I'll let that pass.

Interestingly, for archaeologists, "1950" is now the year that has been fixed as the "present." It appears BC / AD and BCE and CE are now passé, and "1950" is the new "present." 

Basic errors in the index suggest the author, editor, indexer, or spell-checker had trouble "with" Roman numerals. An editor once said the quality of a book can be determined by the quality of the index; I've always believed that and when I find an error with my first-time using the index makes a huge (negative) impression.

Probably the best general-interest book I've seen to date, though I bet there are many, many others.

Raff is way too "woke." Her apologies and her "wokeness" interfere with the flow of the writing.

A better editor, or a writer willing to listen to an editor, could have done it much differently, and much better.

The author appears to apologize for being white, and wondering if her ancestors had any appreciation for Native Americans. Even after 272 pages of writing, and in the epilogue, Raff wonders if genetic research on human remains is ethical, and writing, "[w]e must consciously ask ourselves, Am I treating DNA as sacred."

One wonders if she is pro-life, and if she isn't how she reconciles ...

*************************
Investing

Forbes, display until October 15, 2023

Wiz: cloud security; one of the fastest-growing software startups ever. 

$200 million in sales and a $10 billion valuation in just three years.

Interestingly enough, same article was posted online, August 8, 2003.

Nexus: Sam Altman, OpenAI.

While folks are worried about Apple's new iPhone, Tim Cook is looking at Wiz. And so is "everyone" else.

Forbes Annual Top 100 PRIVATE Cloud Computing Companies

For those analysts and mainstream writers who suggest AI and OpenAI and NVDA are hyped, and a bubble, here are 100 private cloud computing companies. 

Valuation:

• #1: $28 billion
• #2: $38 billion
• #3: $50 billion
• #4: $40 billion
• #5: 7.5 billion
  

Greatest valuation: $50 billion.

All valued in multiple-billion dollars, except for a few at single-digit billions. None are valued less than one billion dollars.

Least valuation: $1 billion.

Wow, Wow, Wow -- The WSJ Calls It Like The Blog Did A Year Ago -- Texas Doesn't Have New England's Problem -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45596TX.

Texas is doing just fine.

And will do even better next year.

Link here. 

Much, much more at the link.

Longer And Longer Laterals -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45595B.

In the Bakken, this is also true. Operators are moving to 3-mile laterals where "administratively" possible. 

Link here. 

Fourth Industrial Revolution

Locator: 45594GENAI.

Fourth Industrial Revolution: tracked here.

Update, The Washington Post, September 5, 2023: link here. Oh, yes, you and I can "shape its effects." No one even knows what "AI" is. Including me.  LOL. We've talked about this before. But I know the blades that will be required.

The most under-reported story of the decade, July 1, 2023: link here.

Google and Meta play hardball with Canada, June 30, 2023: link here.

Bidenomics, June 30, 2023: link here.

The fourth industrial revolution; June 28, 2023; link here.

Themes, April 17, 2023, themes; link here.

Updates, January 12, 2022: link here.

Top stories, January 7, 1922: link here.

An AAPL a day, November 20, 2021: link here.

World Economic Forum, January 14, 2016: link here. 

A Lot Of Low-Hanging Fruit -- A Lot Of Fat -- A Huge Opportunity -- What A Great Country -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45593ECON.

There is so much "fat" in this country -- amazing.

So much low-hanging fruit.

On our five-day cross country trip -- Dallas to Philadelphia to Washington (DC) / Baltimore / Ft Meade and back to Dallas we rented a Toyota 4Runner from Enterprise. I had requested an Altima but something was lost in translation and we were "given" the 4Runner.

The car averaged 23.1 mpg on that 3600-mile trip. 

In the big scheme of things, as I stated earlier, it did not matter. It was a great ride, and a great trip.

But to put that in perspective.

My 2012 Honda Civic (purchased in Williston, ND, November, 2011, and has 126,000 miles on the odometer) easily averages 44 miles per gallon. 

We generally filled the tank with, let's say 15 gallons of unleaded gasoline when the tank was down to about a quarter full. The tank holds 23 gallons according to Toyota.

The difference between 23.1 mpg (Toyota) and 44.1 mpg (my Honda Civic) is ... 21 gallons.

At 21.1 mpg, 21 gallons --> 443 miles.

At 44.1 mpg, 21 gallons --> 926 miles.

Wow. 

With the Honda Civic, at each fill-up, I could have gone an extra 485 miles. 

Literally, I would have cut the number of stops in half. And saved around $300.

And, yet, I saw eight "Toyota 4Runners" on the highway to every "Honda Civic." There is no indication that Americans are interested in EVs based on that observation: Americans seem to have little concern about the price of gasoline -- they talk about it a lot, but they manage. What are Americans concerned about when it comes to their automobiles on a cross-country trip?

• ******range;
• *****time to re-fuel / re-charge;
• *****ease of finding a re-fueling / re-charging station;
• **time to get to a pump / re-charging point when having arrived at a station;
• ******comfort / size of the automobile / pickup truck / SUV/ EV;
• ***versatility of the automobile / pickup truck / SUV / EV;
• ********up-front price for a new vehicle for cross-country trips.

This country and the oil sector are in great shape.

For investors, "oil" is now a utility and will be so for decades assuming the EV revolution succeeds.

If the EV revolution falters, the oil sector will surge for investors (and my heirs -- I doubt my investing life time will exceed another ten years).

The big question: which way is XOM betting --

• that the EV revolution succeeds;
• the EV revolution falters?

Screenshot of the MPG in my 2012 Honda Civic, taken yesterday, September 10, 2023, with 126,000 miles on the odometer.

I'll get a better photo with the odometer reading later, if I remember, and if I can catch the mpg at or greater than 44.1.

BMW -- What Were They Thinking? September 10, 2023

Locator: 45592BMW.

Link here.

******************************
Word For The Day: Weeds

AAPL: Staying The Course -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45591AAPL.

Link here. A reader alerted me to this story earlier; huge thanks.

Yup, link here:

Staying the course:

*****************
The Book Page

Of all the books I've read on British history, perhaps one of the best is Alison Weir's biography of Maary, Queen of Scots. 

Link here. 

Of course, my all-time favorite British book is the story of Sir Henry Neville, the "real" Shakespeare.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45590B.

  The wells

• 39557, conf, CLR, Fuller 10-2H, Little Knife, no production data,
• 37262, conf, Whiting, Wilson Federal 31-15H, Bully,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2023	15677	25630
6-2023	16496	23893
5-2023	24046	40604
4-2023	22210	35965
3-2023	5193	5905

• 39558, conf, CLR, Fuller 11-2H1, Little Knife, no production data,
• 34033, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX3 21-16 163-91-B, Portal, no production data,
• 34026, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX5 27-34 163-91D, Portal, no production data,
• 34025, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX5 27-34 163-91 B, Portal, no production data,
• 21535, conf, Formentera Operations, Tafelmeyer C-3625-6490, Customs, no production data,
• 39620, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 2-19-18-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no produuction data,
• 39065, conf, Hess, TI-Fossaa-LE-158-94-1819H-1, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2023	14386	17369
6-2023	13235	14525
5-2023	6958	6301
4-2023	16228	19055
3-2023	10852	11254

• 39559, conf, CLR, Fuller 12-2HSL, Little Knife, no production data,
• 39028, conf, Liberty Resources, Overdorf 158-96-1-12-3MBH, Temple,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2023	6781	25084
6-2023	13393	66216
5-2023	23426	79360
4-2023	37282	63845
3-2023	17358	24211

• 39623, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matillda May 6 29-32-158N-100W-MBH-LL, Church, no production data,
• 28831, conf, Petro-Hunt, Arsenal Federal 149-1002-17A-20-2H, Charbonneau,

ate	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2023	9889	7556

• 39066, conf, Hess, TI-Hanson-158-94-0706H-2, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2023	17945	21924
6-2023	14956	17773
5-2023	6386	5553
4-2023	17908	19819
3-2023	15088	15210

• 39029, conf, Liberty Resources, Overdorf 158-96-1-12-4MBH, Temple,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2023	9329	32816
6-2023	13096	35343
5-2023	18899	28824
4-2023	18514	27584
3-2023	19465	25591

• 28829, conf, Petro-Hunt, Arsenal Federal 149-102-17A-20-3H, Charbonneau,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2023	7327	5795

• 39641, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 24-8HSL1, Haystack Butte, no production data,
• 39624, conf, Creescent Point, CPEUSC Ruby 4 20-17-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
• 36574, conf, Hess, EN-Kiesel-155-94-1918H-5,  Manitou,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2023	6337	15383
6-2023	14616	37539
5-2023	19920	38387
4-2023	21825	35830
3-2023	18599	23401

• 39625, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUUSC Matilda May 5 29-32-158N-100W-MBH, Church, no production data,
• 38900, conf, Whiting, Snowshoe Federal 31-30-4H, Glass Bluff,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2023	18027	12605
6-2023	18574	7532
5-2023	17429	13795
4-2023	25113	15707
3-2023	12042	7343

• 37926, conf, BR, Boxer 2C TFH, Pershing, no production data,

• 39030, conf, Liberty Resources, Temple 159-96-36-25-3MBH, Temple,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2023	11481	38465
6-2023	16444	38995
5-2023	20220	28662
4-2023	21156	29516
3-2023	23719	33484

• 39067, conf, Hess, TI-Fossaa-158-94-1819H-2, Tioga,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2023	16095	20895
6-2023	19858	23694
5-2023	14195	20139
4-2023	21673	25439
3-2023	20826	20384

• 38901, conf, Whiting, Snowshoe Federal 31-30-2H, Glass Bluff,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2023	19815	17577
6-2023	19290	7108
5-2023	6082	4909
4-2023	22087	13225
3-2023	14034	8395

• 38899, conf, Whiting, Snowshoe Federal 31-30-4H, Glass Bluff,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2023	22500	19443
6-2023	5239	1787
5-2023	5118	4565
4-2023	22538	16034
3-2023	14845	10689

• 37927, conf, BR, Parrish 2C MBH, Pershing, no production data,

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45589B.

 Wednesday, September 20, 2023: 99 for the month; 301 for the quarter, 546 for the year
39557, conf, CLR, Fuller 10-2H,
37262, conf, Whiting, Wilson Federal 31-15H,

Tuesday, September 19, 2023: 97 for the month; 299 for the quarter, 544 for the year
39558, conf, CLR, Fuller 11-2H1,
34033, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX3 21-16 163-91-B,
34026, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX5 27-34 163-91D,
34025, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX5 27-34 163-91 B,
21535, conf, Formentera Operations, Tafelmeyer C-3625-6490,

Monday, September 18, 2023: 92 for the month; 294 for the quarter, 539 for the year
39620, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 2-19-18-158N-100W-MBH,
39065, conf, Hess, TI-Fossaa-LE-158-94-1819H-1,

Sunday, September 17, 2023: 90 for the month; 292 for the quarter, 537 for the year
39559, conf, CLR, Fuller 12-2HSL,
39028, conf, Liberty Resources, Overdorf 158-96-1-12-3MBH,

Saturday, September 16, 2023: 88 for the month; 290 for the quarter, 535 for the year
None.

Friday, September 15, 2023: 88 for the month; 290 for the quarter, 535 for the year
39623, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matillda May 6 29-32-158N-100W-MBH-LL;
28831, conf, Petro-Hunt, Arsenal Federal 149-1002-17A-20-2H,

Thursday, September 14, 2023: 86 for the month; 288 for the quarter, 533 for the year
39066, conf, Hess, TI-Hanson-158-94-0706H-2,
39029, conf, Liberty Resources, Overdorf 158-96-1-12-4MBH,
28829, conf, Petro-Hunt, Arsenal Federal 149-102-17A-20-3H,

Wednesday, September 13, 2023: 83 for the month; 285 for the quarter, 530 for the year
39641, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 24-8HSL1,
39624, conf, Creescent Point, CPEUSC Ruby 4 20-17-158N-100W-MBH,
36574, conf, Hess, EN-Kiesel-155-94-1918H-5,

Tuesday, September 12, 2023: 80 for the month; 282 for the quarter, 527 for the year
39625, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUUSC Matilda May 5 29-32-158N-100W-MBH,
38900, conf, Whiting, Snowshoe Federal 31-30-4H,
37926, conf, BR, Boxer 2C TFH,

Monday, September 11, 2023: 77 for the month; 279 for the quarter, 524 for the year
None.

Sunday, September 10, 2023: 77 for the month; 279 for the quarter, 524 for the year
39673, conf, Hydra Services, SWD,
39030, conf, Liberty Resources, Temple 159-96-36-25-3MBH,

Saturday, September 9, 2023: 75 for the month; 277 for the quarter, 522 for the year
39067, conf, Hess, TI-Fossaa-158-94-1819H-2,
38901, conf, Whiting, Snowshoe Federal 31-30-2H,
38899, conf, Whiting, Snowshoe Federal 31-30-4H,
37927, conf, BR, Parrish 2C MBH,

Goldilocks Economy -- September 10, 2023

Locator: 45588ECON.

Germany: the sick man in Europe? Link here.

 Trade: India and US favored with China-Biden dispute. Link here. Losers: Germany and China.

Jobs: link here. We never did see much wage-pressure / inflation. And now we will see less. Already Walmart is cutting hourly wages.

News stories: link here.

GDPNow: estimate for 3Q23 -- a remarkable 5.6.