Flashback To 2020 -- The US Is Running Out Of Oil That We Can Afford -- Update -- Re-Posting Five Years Later -- January 28, 2025

Locator: 48416OIL.

January 28, 2025: price of oil continues to drop. Currently trending back toward $70 / bbl.

Flashback from our own DOE, March 7, 2020, link here:

This is so incredibly cool. I first posted the note in the screenshot below on October 27, 2011, and then posted it again, with a tag to follow-up in December, 2020. It's a bit early, but with WTI dropping below $50/bbl, I thought this was as good a time as ever to post it again.

Link here. The tag, follow-up in December, 2020, will remain.

"... as soon as 2012, total world oil production [would] begin to decline, and .... there could be a 10-million-bbl/day shortage by 2015."

What a bunch of idiots. And to think they were the smartest and the brightest.

Interestingly, the second link in that screenshot takes you to the Russian Times and the story is still "up."

Just think, if Bernie is elected president, the Russian Times will likely be the new "government" newspaper. LOL.

Back To The Bakken -- July 25, 2024

Locator: 48232OPEC. 

OPEC's oil reserves: lower than officially reported. Rystad Energy.

*************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.23.

Friday, July 26, 2024: 44 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 370 for the year
40415, conf, CLR, Chase 6-19HSL,
40321, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay E Federal 5292 22-7 8B,

Thursday, July 25, 2024: 42 for the month; 42 for the quarter, 368 for the year
40271, conf, CLR, Sloan 3-18HSL,
40173, conf, Slawson, Cyclone 2-21-16H,

RBN Energy: three-pronged plan to refill SPR comes with challenges beyond price. Archived.

The Biden administration has been on a mission for more than a year to restock the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which was tapped at unprecedented levels in an effort to keep crude oil and refined product prices under control after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 disrupted energy flows globally. But if returning all of the released 180 MMbbl and replenishing the SPR to pre-war levels was the plan, they’ve got a long way to go. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the steps the administration has taken to replenish the reserve and the headwinds it faces.

The SPR is the largest emergency crude stockpile in the world. It was first proposed in the 1940s, but not established until 1975 and the first barrels weren’t added until 1977, four years after Arab members of producer cartel OPEC cut off oil flows to the U.S. after it provided aid to Israel during the Yom Kippur War. At that point, the U.S. was heavily dependent on Middle East crude for use at domestic refineries. (Many still remember idling in their cars in long lines at gas stations in hopes of getting a few gallons). The reserve was aimed at bolstering energy security and meeting the nation’s pledges with the then three-year-old International Energy Agency (IEA). According to a 1974 agreement, IEA members must hold stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net oil imports, based on the previous year’s annual average. U.S. net imports averaged 2.42 MMb/d in 2023, so the total required in storage would be 217.8 MMbbl, or 58% of the SPR’s current inventory (more on that in a bit).

Essay On US Production -- Export -- Crude Oil -- April 5, 2024

Locator: 46929WTI.

Link here.

The whole essay is awesome but this paragraph is particularly interesting:

The EIA analysis noted that following nearly 40 years of annual production declines, in 2009, U.S. crude oil production experienced a resurgence, attributed to the widespread adoption of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques by producers. Since then, production has continued to climb steadily.

The only interruption to this growth occurred in 2020 and 2021, when demand and prices plummeted due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, recent increases in total crude oil and natural gas production in the United States have been primarily driven by the growth of production in the Permian Basin, located in western Texas and eastern New Mexico.

Time to review "Hubbert Peak Theory." The fact that the expert did not mention Hubbert Peak Theory suggests that "everybody knows.

Top Energy Story Of The Day -- USA Set For Natural Gas Boom -- April 23, 2021

Link to Rigzone (as usual, some numbers rounded):

• natural gas production, US:
  
• 2019: a record 92.1 Bcfd natural gas produced in the US
• 2020: declined to 90.8 Bcfd due to Covid-19 lockdowns
• 2021: on track to fall to 89.7 Bcfd
• 2022: Rystad forecasts a new all-time record -- 93.3 Bcfd
• 2024: will exceed 100 Bcfd
• Haynesville: will off the largest gas output growth going forward
• will add about 10 Bcfd from 2020 to 2035, growing by 86% during that timeframe
• will account for 21% of the country's gas production in 2035
• compares to 13% in 2020
• if we round down to 10% and down to 20%, that's a doubling in contribution
• the Permian: another five Bcfd in growth by 2035;
• the Marcellus and Utica: will also add another five Bcfd:
• And, Rystad also ranks the regions by CO2 per boe produced; best to worse:
• Appalachian region: 7.1 kg of CO2 per boe
• Haynesville: 7.5
• Niobara: 10.6
• Permian: 10.9
• Eagle Ford: 11
• Bakken: 20.7 kg of CO2 per boe

See first comment. I wonder where he is now.

**********************************************
Forty-Three Years of Earth Day Prognostications

Everyone has their list. Google earth day predictions. 

The Smithsonian provides its version of these prognostications. 

A reader sent me a note regarding Paul Ehrlich. 

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

Thinking back on the Y2K scare, it's amazing how many "chicken little" fears we've suffered through the years.

One wonders if "seasonal flu" will ever make a comeback or if Covid-19 killed that one off forever?

And, of course, there was always Zika.

I guess in the 1950's we had the "15-minutes-to-run-home to our bomb shelter in case of  a nuclear attack" scare. I actually remember my parents improvising such a bomb shelter in our basement, and me worrying endlessly about the windows at the top of the foundation/ground level -- wondering if they were adequately sealed.

And then, of course, if they were adequately sealed, the level of radon would only worsen, and I would die of lung cancer before the age of fourteen, perhaps dropping dead while running home for a nuclear-bomb drill. Those drills were held once-a-year to determine who could get home in 15 minutes to die with their family, or remain sheltered-in-place to die with their teacher. Hiding under our desk was all we had; the supply closet was too small to hold fifteen second-graders and a pregnant teacher.

And, most worrisome of all: fluoride in our water supply. That was a scare that lingered through my freshman year in college.

I'm not sure how I survived 60+ years of such fears.

The way Sophia, age six and her friends talk about Covid, it is obvious that this is the 2020 version of fluoride, radon, Zika, and CO2 all rolled into one.

By the way, this is quite hilarious. Almost every day Sophia has a banana smoothie. This new routine started about two weeks ago. We make them at home, and she pretty much makes them herself -- she loves turning on the blender.

And everyday we take a plastic straw out of the drawer. Lately, I've been washing and re-using the plastic straws for an extra day or two -- not that I'm worried about the Pacific Ocean living her in Texas -- I just hate spending a couple of bucks on 5-cents worth of plastic.

Yesterday, Sophia noted the straw I gave her was still wet from the previous day. The jig was up. She wasn't going to use a wet straw. So I opened the drawer to get her a new straw and, as God is my witness, as they say in these parts, Sophia said: "No, it's Earth Day. We can't use a plastic straw." 

Obviously that was something her friends discussed at TutorTime yesterday afternoon.

Peak Oil? Food For Thought -- Platts -- December 22, 2016

Some great statistics in this article. The theme: despite the current glut in oil, much of that due to the shale revolution, demand is likely to put stress on supply in the future. It appears, bottom line, IEA has simply moved the "peak oil" concern from 2020 to 2040. Some data points:

• 1998: IEA forecast peak oil in 2020
• how far was the IEA off? IEA projected demand at 111 bopd by 202; in fact, current demand is struggling to hit 99 bopd
• today: IEA says CAPEX slumped in past two years due to price downturn; price downturn "pulled the rug out from under upstream spending and investment decisions": IEA sees a potential oil supply "gap" of 16 million bopd by 2025
• the gap of 16 million bopd by 2025 threatens new spike in oil prices
• global tight oil: 4.6 million bopd in 2015; will peak at 7.5 million bopd in 2035
• IEA predicts decline by 23.7 million bopd over the next decade alone, the IEA forecasts, the equivalent of losing the entire output of Iraq every two years

So, we'll see.

Back-of-the-envelope:

• the Bakken: 2 million bopd
• the Eagle Ford: 2 million bopd (EIA: suggests about 1 million bopd)
• the Permian: 4 million bopd (EIA: suggests about 2 million bopd)
• subtotal: 8 million bopd in three plays

I can't even begin to count all the other tight plays in the US, but one could start with SCOOP and STACK. The IEA folks need to get out and about.

Five-Year-Production-By-Well; Rambling, Random Update Of The Very First 24 Wells That I Reported On, Coming Off The Confidential List -- July 29, 2014

The First 24 -- 1H2010

Since January 25, 2010, I have recorded every well that has been reported in North Dakota. The list starts here (1H10) (click on "the list starts here").

For the past couple of days, I've been updating the very first wells, the wells that were reported in 2010, which correctly or incorrectly I list as 1H10 (which is linked above).

It takes a lot of time to do this manually, but I do it because it gives me a "feel" for the Bakken. I haven't completely finished the list but I've done a lot of it, updating the total amount produced by each well as of 4/14 or 5/15, which at the time of updating was the most recent data available from the NDIC.

If one scrolls through the list, it is incredibly interesting all the things one can note. Randomly, in no particular order or importance attached to any of the data points. These are some things that jump out at me:

1. How incredibly young the Bakken boom is. These wells were all tested (which means they were spud not too much earlier -- 6 months or so) in 2009 or 2010.

2. How incredibly few permits, once issued, were cancelled.

3. How few -- as in almost "none" -- wells were DRY. As I said from the beginning: there are "no" dry Bakken wells.

4. The incredible difference in production among Bakken wells compared to Spearfish wells, compared to Madison wells, compared to wells from other formations.

5. They may not be dry, but are they economical. I've discussed that before also. Even low-producing wells serve a purpose, and in the "old" days any producer "held a lease by production." Not how few -- none -- of the wells are abandoned or plugged. They are all active. 

6. Many of the early wells were short laterals; now the standard is long laterals, twice as long. I don't necessarily buy into it, but some folks suggest that a horizontal well twice as long will produce twice as much oil as a horizontal half the length, all things being equal. Again, these are mostly short lateral wells. I think most of these wells, based on the operator (except for EOG) were long laterals.

7. These wells were drilled when time was of the essence, to save the leases before they expired.

8. The technology back in 2009 and 2010 was definitely much different than the technology in 2014. Regular readers know how much better the technology has become. In the beginning of the boom, we talked about one-stage fracks. Then 8 stages; then 12 stages; now up to 24, and 36, and 60 stages.

9. The decline rates are atrocious, but they are improving over time, as the technology gets better.

10. When these wells were being drilled, the companies were barely into delineating the Bakken. To some extent, these were all "wildcats," although not in the strict definition, but operators were still sorting things out.

11. I have data that goes all the way back to 2006 but that data is on Excel spreadsheets and not posted on the blog; maybe someday I will update data from the beginning of the boom, but manually it takes a long, long time.

12. I don't think it's a stretch to say that every one of these wells might have had three times the production by now had they all been long laterals (and maybe they all were long laterals; I haven't checked); and using all the new technology and better completion methods.

So, scroll through the wells at the link (1H10, above) to get a feeling of what went on back then and the total production to date.

Here are the very first wells I ever recorded at the blog as they were being reported. The names of the wells do not matter. The third column is the oil field; the fourth column is month/year when the well was tested; the fifth column was the month/year when I updated total production; the last column, in 1000's of bbls, is total production to date (fifth column).

These happen to be all Bakken wells. By this point in the Bakken boom, they were not drilling much else. But look at those cumulative production numbers (last column). 

18369	BEXP	Rosebud	1/10	5/14	187
18324	BEXP	Painted Woods	1/10	5/14	213
18232	Hunt	Ross	1/10	4/14	337
18014	Zavanna	Stony Creek	1/10	4/14	145
18082	WLL	Alger	7/9	4/14	110
17996	EOG	Burke	7/9	5/14	20
17972	EOG	Parshall	8/9	5/14	297
17933	EOG	Parshall	8/9	4/14	250
17828	EOG	Parshall	8/9	4/14	132
17727	EOG	Sanish	8/9	4/14	149
17984	OXY USA	Simon Butte	8/9	4/14	56
18188	Slawson	Van Hook	9/9	4/14	222
18153	MRO	Big Bend	9/9	4/14	290
18298	Whiting	Sanish	10/9	4/14	565
17080	Whiting	Sanish	10/9	4/14	369
18209	Murex	Sanish	11/9	4/14	443
18233	Whiting	Sanish	11/9	4/14	216
17881	Tracker	Little Knife	12/9	5/14	189
18214	EOG	Ross	12/9	4/14	175
18301	EOG	Parshall	12/9	4/14	108
18262	Hess	Manitou	12/9	4/14	213
18238	Murex	Sanish	12/9	5/14	377
18213	Whiting	Sanish	12/9	4/14	446

I consider, right or wrong, that the wells paid for themselves when they hit 100K bbls total production.

You know, seriously, take a look at those wells. They were not cherry-picked. They were the first 23 or 24 wells that were reported at that time (some were reported by the operator and are "out of order" -- in other words, the sequence will not agree with NDIC's database).

But there is nothing cherry-picked; just as I got them and recorded them.

Look at those total production numbers. Remember, the consensus is that Bakken wells will go on producing for 39 years. The oldest well in that list (07/2009) is less than five years old.

A long, long time ago I talked about initial production (the first year or so) and the EURs. I will talk about that in a later post.

But again, these are the very first wells I ever posted as they came off the confidential list back in 2010. Now that the Bakken boom is seven years old in North Dakota, we can start looking at total production and EURs.

Over time, I will continue to post updates, the next 24, the next 24 after that, etc.

*******************************

The First 30 Permits -- 2006

Now compare the wells above with the first 30 permits in 2006. (Remember: the Bakken boom began in 2007 in North Dakota):

16054	XTO/Headington		St Demetrius	10/6	5/14	32
16055	XTO/Headington		Capa	9/6	5/14	246
16056	Whiting	PNC	Duperow
16057	Whiting		Red River	4/7	5/14	7
16058	CLR		Tyler	7/6	5/14	23
16059	Petro-Hunt		Charlson	10/6	5/14	1444
16060	Whiting	PNC	Red River
16061	Berenergy		Madison	3/6	5/14	69
16062	Sinclair	TA	Red River	2/7	5/14	0.9
16063	Whiting		Birdbear	5/6	5/14	117
16064	CLR		Red River	8/10	5/14	42
16065	Onxy Oil	Dry	Madison
16066	Ballantyne	Dry	Madison
16067	Petro Harvester		Madison	8/8	5/14	60
16068	Whiting		Sanish	5/6	5/14	169
16069	Zenergy	Dry	Madison
16070	Oasis		Madison	4/6	5/14	57
16071	Armstrong		Duperow	1/6	5/14	93
16072	CLR		Midale/Nesson	3/6	5/14	85
16073	Kaiser-Francis	PNC	Duperow
16074	Jed Oil	PNC	Juno
16075	XTO		Bullsnake	6/6	5/14	62
16076	XTO		Mondak	6/6	5/14	66
16077	Slawson	Loc	Madison
16078	Kaiser-Francis		Duperow	5/6	5/14	28
16079	Kaiser-Francis	PNC	Duperow
16080	Hess		Beaver Lodge	6/6	5/14	28
16081	Whiting	PNC	Sanish
16082	Petro Harvester		Madison	2/6	5/14	166
16083	Hess		Capa	2/7	5/14	198

Comments:

Of the 30 wells listed above, 20 were non-Bakken wells.

Note how many non-Bakken wells were dry. There are "no" dry wells in the Bakken.

Note how poor most of  the non-Bakken wells turned out to be.

Note the Charlson Bakken well that has produced almost 1.5 million bbls of oil to date. 

*********************************

The First 30 Permits -- 2007

The North Dakota Bakken boom began in 2007. These are the first 30 permits (but again, not all drilled/completed in this order):

Whiting	TAO	Madison	6/7	5/14	0.1
Eagle		Madison	3/7	5/14	118
CLR		Red River	6/7	5/14	82
CLR		Chimney Butte	6/7	5/14	123
CLR		Corral Creek	4/7	5/14	277
Fidelity	IA	Pierre	8/7		0
Fidelity	NG	Pierre	8/7	5/14	0
Fidelity	NG	Pierre	8/7	5/14	0
Fidelity	NG	Pierre	8/7	5/14	0
Fidelity	NG	Pierre	8/7	5/14	0
CLR		Red River	4/7	5/14	84
CLR		Red River	6/1	5/14	118
Whiting	Dry	Red River
Panamerican		Madison	4/7	5/14	28
PDC	EXP	Madison
OXY/Ansbro		Willmen	5/7	5/14	48
OXY/Ansbro		Madison	6/7	5/14	38
Hess		Red River	10/7	5/14	2
Whiting	PNC	Madison
Upton	PNC	Tyler
Upton	TA	Tyler			0.3
CLR		Red River	7/7	5/14	185
CLR		Red River	7/7	5/14	222
CLR	IA	Red River	8/7	5/14	386
Zenergy	PNC	Madison
BR		Blue Buttes	6/7	5/14	180
EOG		Parshall	7/7	5/14	445
CLR		Red River	6/7	5/14	318
EOG		Parshall	5/8	5/14	366
Nance	Dry	Madison

Comments:

1. 24 of the 30 were non-Bakken wells.
2. The Red River has some incredibly good wells, and they are much less expensive to drill.
3. EOG is starting to hit on some huge Bakken wells.

*********************************

The First 30 Permits -- 2008

 

17000	CLR		Red River	12/9	5/14	254
17001	CLR		Red River	11/8	5/14	85
17002	CLR		Red River	12/8	5/14	34
17003	Kodiak		Twin Buttes	12/9	5/14	20
17004	CLR		Red River	6/8	5/14	94
17005	EOG		Parshall	7/8	5/14	369
17006	Samson	PNC	Baukol N
17007	Hess		Ross	5/8	5/14	130
17008	Marathon		Sanish	8/8	5/14	40
17009	Peak		McGregory Buttes	6/8	5/14	163
17010	Hess		Ross	5/8	5/14	132
17011	EOG		Parshall	8/8	5/14	415
17012	Hunt		Parshall	6/8	5/14	286
17013	Prima	IA	Midale/Nesson	7/8		47
17014	Hess	TA/ND	Wildcat
17015	XTO	IA	Manitou	7/8
17016	Armstrong	Dry	Madison
17017	XTO		Manitou	5/8	5/14	25
17018	Brigham		Alger	6/8	5/14	92
17019	EOG		Parshall	6/9	5/14	410
17020	Hess		Hawkeye	5/8	5/14	315
17021	Tracker		Murphy Creek	6/8	5/14	128
17022	Murex		Sanish	5/8	5/14	247
17023	Whiting		Sanish	5/8	5/14	683
17024	Peak		Mandaree	5/8	5/14	155
17025	PDC	PNC	Madison
17026	EOG		Parshall	10/9	5/14	50
17027	EOG	PNC	Wildcat
17028	EOG		Parshall	10/8	5/14	499

Comments:
1. We are now well into the Bakken boom which is just beginning.
2. Even so, 7 of 30 wells were non-Bakken wells.
3. Several of the Bakken wells have done very, very well (286K, 315K, 410K, 415K, 683K).
4. These wells are about 6 years old (as of 7/14).
5. Note again: almost every early Bakken well is still active; if nothing else, even these poorly performing wells hold the lease by production. I am told the rule of thumb in the Bakken is about $20,000/acre lease. If the company holds the lease, they are saving a ton of money.

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The First 30 Permits -- 2009

17946	Newfield		Fertile Valley	9/9	5/14	34
17947	Timberline	Dry	Madison
17948	Encore	PNC	Birdbear
17949	EOG		Stanley	7/9	5/14	51
17950	EOG		Alger	7/9	5/14	111
17951	EOG		Parshall	6/10	5/14	50
17952	SM Energy		Siverston	6/9	5/14	149
17953	XTO/Encore		Killdeer	4/10	5/14	265
17954	Hess		Manitou	7/9	5/14	84
17955	CLR	PNC	Wildcat
17956	Hess		Big Butte	8/9	5/14	169
17957	PDC	EXP	Madison
17958	PDC	EXP	Wildcat
17959	PDC		Lostwood	7/10	5/14	26
17960	Williston Hunter/Eagle	WI	Madison
17961	OXY/Anschutz		Simon Butte	2/10	5/14	100
17962	Hess		Ross	6/9	5/14	126
17963	Hess		Manitou	5/9	5/14	102
17964	Whiting		Sanish	6/9	5/14	124
17965	CLR		Mary	6/10	5/14	92
17966	Marathon		Reunion Bay	6/9	5/14	121
17967	Marathon	Dry	Murphy Creek
17968	Zenergy	PNC	Elidah
17969	Baytex (formerly Samson)	PNC	Ambrose
17970	BR	TF	Keene	4/9	5/14	146
17971	Marathon		Murphy Creek	9/9	5/14	118
17972	EOG		Parshall	8/9	5/14	297
17973	BR	IA	Camel Butte	11/9	5/14	160
17974	BR	TF	Keene	6/9	5/14	393
17975	Zenergy		Eagle Nest	7/9	5/14	77

Comments:
1. Although they have been drilling the Bakken for about two years, there is no dramatic change yet.
2. Even so, 4 of 30 wells were non-Bakken wells.
3. Only a couple of the wells are interesting; it shows the tenacity of the operators to keep spending huge amounts of money to figure out the Bakken.
4. These wells are still about 6 years old (as of 7/14).
5. We now see an occasional Three Forks well; surprisingly there was a dry Bakken well.
6. Note again: almost every early Bakken well is still active; if nothing else, even these poorly performing wells hold the lease by production. I am told the rule of thumb in the Bakken is about $20,000/acre lease. If the company holds the lease, they are saving a ton of money.

*********************************

The First 30 Permits -- 2010

18571	EOG		Clear Water	8/10	4/15	82
18572	Tracker	PNC	Little Knife
18573	XTO		Midway	7/10	4/15	115
18574	Slawson		Big Bend	12/10	4/15	172
18575	Slawson		Big Bend	6/11	4/15	298
18576	BR/Tracker		Little Knife	2/11	4/15	139
18577	Hunt		Ross	8/10	4/15	253
18578	Eagle		Madison	7/10	4/15	32
18579	SM Energy		Bear Den	12/10	4/15	363
18580	SM Energy		Dimmick	5/10	4/15	89
18581	Newfield		East Fork	4/11	4/15	75
18582	BR	Conf	Corral Creek
18583	XTO	EXP	Corral Creek
18584	CLR		Wildcat	7/10	4/15	90
18585	EOG		Ross	10/10	4/15	69
18586	CLR		Dolphin	7/10	4/15	134
18587	BEXP		Briar Creek	7/10	4/15	169
18588	Marathon		Bailey	6/10	5/14	111
18589	Slawson		Big Bend	5/10	5/14	407
18590	Slawson	IA	Big Bend	8/10	5/14	236
18591	Marathon		Murphy Creek	7/10	5/14	105
18592	EOG	PNC	Clear Water
18593	Oasis		Cottonwood	6/12	5/14	119
18594	EOG		Squaw Creek	9/10	5/14	128
18595	Slawson		Van Hook	7/10	5/14	318
18596	EOG	PNC	Clear Water
18597	EOG	PNC	Clear Water
18598	CLR		Hamlet	4/10	5/14	97
18599	Anschutz		Crooked Creek	1/11	5/14	105
18600	Cirque	EXP	Dimond

Comments:
1. Although they have been drilling the Bakken for about three years, there is no dramatic change yet.
2. However, now operators are drilling the Bakken almost exclusively; only one of the first 30 permits in 2010 was for a non-Bakken well.
3. Like 2009, only a couple of the wells are interesting, and then just barely; it shows the tenacity of the operators to keep spending huge amounts of money to figure out the Bakken.
4. These wells are still about 5 years old (as of 7/14).
5. The operators must be watching their permitted locations more closely; several Bakken permits were canceled.
6. Note again: every drilled Bakken well is still active. If nothing else, these performing wells hold the lease by production. I am told the rule of thumb in the Bakken is about $20,000/acre lease. If the company holds the lease, they are saving a ton of money.

*********************************

The First 30 Permits -- 2011

20247	Newfield	PNC	Fertile Valley
20248	Murex		West Bank	10/11	5/14	87
20249	Murex	Madison	Madison	8/11	5/14	7
20250	XTO		West Capa	3/13	5/14	127
20251	CLR/Samson Resources		Kinberly	12/11	5/14	67
20252	HRC/Petro-Hunt		Eagle Nest	6/12	5/14	80
20253	Petro-Hunt		Eagle Nest	6/12	5/14	243
20254	EOG		Parshall	12/11	5/14	215
20255	EOG		Parshall	4/12	5/14	221
20256	CLR		Little Knife	7/11	5/14	135
20257	KOG		Mandaree	4/14	5/14	35
20258	KOG		Mandaree	4/14	5/14	39
20259	KOG		Mandaree	4/14	5/14	16
20260	EOG		Ross	1/12	5/14	295
20261	CLR		Little Knife	8/11	5/14	60
20262	Hunt		Parshall	7/11	5/14	131
20263	Newfield		Fertile Valley	9/11	5/14	68
20264	Newfield	PNC	Bar Butte
20265	CLR		Jim Creek	9/11	5/14	78
20266	SM		Banks	3/12	5/14	82
20267	Slawson		Van Hook	9/11	5/14	279
20268	Prima		Rennie Lake	11/11	5/14	44
20269	Petro-Hunt		Four Bears	6/11	5/14	241
20270	Petro-Hunt		Pronghorn	8/11	5/14	118
20271	QEP		DWCB	12/11	5/14	130
20272	Hess/Tracker		Truax	10/11	5/14	166
20273	XTO		Heart Butte	9/12	5/14	153
20274	MRO		DWCB	11/11	5/14	191
20275	Oasis		Wildcat	7/11	5/14	186
20276	Enduro/Sequel		Flat Top Butte	4/12	5/14	29

Comments:
1. Although they have been drilling the Bakken for about four years now, maybe, just maybe we are starting to see a trend: consistently good wells, in the 150K - 200K range after three to four years of production. .
2. Operators are drilling the Bakken almost exclusively; one one of the first 30 permits in 2011 was for a non-Bakken well.
3. Be very careful in looking at the total production; this is the first year in which there is a wide disparity when the wells were completed/tested. Two of the wells were completed just a month ago (4/14).
5. DWCB: Deep Water Creek Bay.
6. Note again: every drilled Bakken well is still active. If nothing else, these performing wells hold the lease by production. I am told the rule of thumb in the Bakken is about $20,000/acre lease. If the company holds the lease, they are saving a ton of money.

Wells with permits issued in 2012 are too new to be added to this group yet.