Fury

Operation EPIC FURY

Overview

Scope 

WSJ: A Visual Guide. First posted March 18, 2026. Likely to be updated.

Epic days in the war: link here.

Updates 

Day 46, April 14, 2026: first 24 hours of the US blockade on Iran seem to have gone pretty well. 

Day 45, April 13, 2026: biggest mistake Iran could make at this juncture -- targeting a US a/c carrier. 

Day 44, April 12, 2026: 

• clearing the mines: apparently the US is clearing mines in the strait;
• Trump, on the strait: "all or none." Finally some adulting. 
• after 21 hours in Islamabad, Vance et all have had enough. Fifteen more hours that I would have stayed.
• we should all be thrilled peace negotiations qwew being held in Islamabad rather than Paris. Have you ever wanted to visit Islamabad, much less spend a week there? Life is to short to spend a month in Pakistan. No matter how rich you are. Meanwhile, China is now re-arming Iran with state-of-the art air defense missiles. Okay. Did anyone expect anything else?

Day 43, April 11, 2026: US continues to stand down; Israel continues to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon; Iran continues to hit its Arabic neighbors' non-military sites; to what degree, impossible to say. The US diplomatic team has arrived in Islamabad for direct negotiations with Iran. 

Day 42, April 10, 2026: US continues to stand down; Israel continues to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon but coming under pressure from Trump to stand down in Lebanon, also; Iran continues to hit its Arabic neighbors' non-military sites, but perhaps less than yesterday. Hard to say.

Day 41, April 9, 2026: US continues to stand down; Israel continues to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon; Iran continues to hit its Arabic neighbors' non-military sites.

Day 40, April 8, 2026: peace breaks out in the Middle East -- on day 29, April 7, 2026 -- see this post.

Day 39, April 7, 2026:

President Trump accepts two-week ceasefire with Iran. President Trump has also said he has accepted a 10-point peace plan proposed by Iran "for consideration." -- 5:39 p.m. CT today April 7, during, story breaking during evening national news. It is not clear if Iran has accepted the ceasefire. So, here we go again, which is fine with me. WTI: drops $5 / bbl; now trading at $107/bbl. 

Day 38, April 6, 2026:

• President to speak today, the April 6th deadline.
• Israel just attacked the Pars petrochemical facility; 
• Israel hitting this facility in March, unleashed Iran against entire Mideast.
• Netanyahu said he would not hit anything other than bona fide military structures without permission from Trump.
• Israel takes out another high-ranking Iranian officer: Major General Majid Khademi, head of the IRGC intelligence; attack took place in Tehran.

Day 37, April 5, 2026;

• second airman rescued;
• Trump on track to release The Beast tomorrow
• announces message to Americans tomorrow afternoon
• one wonders what diplomatic breakthrough it would take for Trump to delay? 
• he got a huge break when that airman was rescued. 

Day 36, April 4, 2026:

• Iran now hitting Kuwait's desalination plant(s) with drones; 
• this opens the door for the allies
• a sign of desperation
• Trump seems to be eager to unleash the beast 

Day 35, April 3, 2026: tea leaves --

• day: apparently a second US fighter hit by Iranians; pilot is safe. 
• overnight:
• US F-15E downed; pilot apparently captured; search and rescue helicopter also shot down?
• drones hit Kuwaiti refinery
• some sources say additional bridges taken out by allies 
• tea leaves: short term
• all-out regional war, no holds barred, appear likely over next two weeks;
• tea leaves: long time 
• the Trump deadline, April 6, will pass with the strait not yet fully opened;
• April 7, Trump will make statement; belligerent in tone;
• UK's 40-country summit to re-open the strait will fall far short;
• US will continue to take out military targets; no power plants; no desalination plants; every target will have a dual civilian / military purpose; 
• today's target -- that incredible bridge -- was said to be used by the military to move armaments around, making it a legitimate target:
• the great unknown -- those 10,000 ground troops
• my hunch: they're waiting for a spectacular military opportunity
• on/about April 16, 2026, US forces will "stand-down" 
• US will maintain presence providing top cover for GCC to open strait or make it untenable for Iran to maintain the status quo 
• this phase will last at least six months, maybe longer; 
• Mideast Pax Americana 
• could CENTCOM set up a novel Mideast structure unifying GCC, Israel, and US?to keep the strait open
• could the 10,000 ground troops establish a "Camp Pendleton" on Kharg Island? 

Day 34, April 2, 2026: 

• Hegseth first three top US Army generals
• including the top general officer in the US Army, the Chief of Staff, US Army 
• coincides with talk of ground invasions 
• these generals advised against a ground invasion 
• politics
• speech: over-promised, under-delivered
• Rubio: a statesman, too bad he’s not taller.
• Vance: a politician, and not a good one at that.
• Hegseth: a lightweight; four years  from now, quietly disappears;
• military
• tea leaves: two more weeks of B-52s over Iran;
• Iran: IRGC thinks they only have to hold out for  two more weeks;
• my hunch: IRGC misreading Trump.

Day 33, April 1, 2026:

• the One Big Beautiful Speech to air tonight, 9:00 p.m. EST 
• Fox News is reporting that "Iran" has "requested" a ceasefire. 
• Trump's response: actions speak louder than words. 

Day 32, March 31, 2026:

• Hegseth notes that "none" of our NATO allies are agreeing to any of Trump's requests 
• First time in this "war," that B-52s flew bombing missions over Iran itself
• hit military targets; not civilian infrastructure
• deadline on decision for striking civilian infrastructure, April 6, 2026 
• Allies racing to knock-out last vestiges of Iran's nuclear program; apparently allies hit Iran's Khondab heavy water research reactor.
• are you kidding me? I thought Iran's nuclear infrastructure was the #1 reason Israel pushed for this war and now -- thirty-two days into the war, the allies are finally hitting a heavy water research reactor? 

Day 31, March 30, 2026:

• Allies take out huge munitions depot outside Isfaran, 200 miles south of Tehran
• reminder: Trump’s 10-day ultimatum ends April 6, 2026 (Easter Monday)

Day 30, March 29, 2026:

• Tehran significantly ramps up attacks on UAE and Kuwait.
• some might suggest this is an act of desperation on Iran's part
• Iran's only American targets are the "Arab states" --  
• without these targets, Iran wouldn't have much
• Israel's "Golden Dome" -- Kuwait, UAE, Saudi are all going to wish they had the same 
• Interestingly, after an American AWACS E-3 Sentry destroyed by Tehran -- a high-value asset that cannot be quickly or easily replaced -- Netanyahu is offering to base high-value assets in Israel. 
• no information on what ground troops are doing or where they are located -- 

Day 29, March 28, 2026:

• Trump trying to find an exit ramp;
• at odds with Netanyahu who seems to be expanding the conflict by attacking non-military infrastructure sites in Iran;
• Iranian missiles hit American military on Saudi base, injuring at least ten (some seriously) and "several" refueling aircraft;
• US deploying perhaps more than the original 10,000 troops plus two MEUs;
• USS Tripoli has arrived in Mideast: 2,500 US Marines; 2,500 US sailors; 
• USS George Bush is likely to be moved to the theater of operations (CENTCOM) now that it has concluded necessary training and preparation. 
• Houthis beating the war drums; could block the second of two critical straits;
• bottom line: this is getting more and more serious every day.
• this could be incredibly serious for Saudi Arabia -- it's not as if Venezuela doesn't exist? 
• BREAKING: Saudi Arabian pipeline that avoids the Strait of Hormuz is now pumping around 7 million barrels of oil per day, its full capacity.
• prior to war, Saudi Arabia exporting 7.2 million bopd  

Day 28, March 27, 2026:

• overnight, Israel kills another high-ranking Iranian general officer:
• IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri 
• it appears we're headed for a TKO (Truce -- Korean Outcome)
• Trump appears ready to declare "Mission Accomplished" and let the GCC and Iran sort this out
• for oil bulls: outcome couldn't be better.

Day 27, March 26, 2026:

• Trump extends deadline for ten days.  
• the Pentagon (i.e., Mr Hegseth) is considering another 10,000 GI’s being sent to the Mideast to give the President more options. 

Day 26, March 25, 2026: 

• Iran rejects 15-point "peace plan" with Trump;
• Trump says Iran still has four days to open the strait before the US starts hitting Iran's energy infrastructure;
• elements of the 82nd Airborne start deploying; that's in addition to previously announced US military deployments
• on that news, oilprice says WTI fell 2.5% ($2.36) but in fact WTI is still trading at $89.99. At the open this morning, oilprice had WTI at $87.62. 

Day 25, March 24, 2026: Reports out of Atlanta suggest TSA security checkpoints are back to "normal." Wait times down to 40 minutes after ICE deployed to airports with long wait times. Huge missile barrage on Israel. Trump deploys 2,000 paratroopers to the Mideast.

Day 24, March 23, 2026: Trump's ultimatum to Iran to open the strait -- forty-hours ago. Trump steps back; puts ultimatum on hold for five days.  

Day 23, March 22, 2026: Trump will deploy ICE to US airports to augment TSA.

Day 22, March 21, 2026:

• Trump's ultimatum to Iran: 48 hours to open the strait
• no sign that Iran's Supreme Leader is conscious, alive, or in Iran. 
• HUGE DEVELOPMENT: Saudi will allow US to conduct strikes against Iran from air base in western Saudi Arabia;
• in speeches by Prince MBS clearly indicates complete break between Saudi and Iran 
• King Fahd Air Base in Taif is a major Royal Saudi Air Force base in western Saudi Arabia.
• reports as of mid-March 2026 indicate it is being opened to U.S. forces;
• the base is strategically located to enhance operational depth, providing, according to Middle East Eye, a position better protected against regional missile and drone threats.
• location: situated in Taif, Western Saudi Arabia. 
• significance: recently selected by Saudi Arabia to host U.S. forces for operational missions. 
• capabilities: features two main runways, 07/25 (3,735 meters ) and 17/35 (3,350 meters), and serves as a significant Royal Saudi Air Force installation.
•  Iran monetizing the strait;
• Iran navy escorts Japanese ship(s) through strait
• some say Iran's goal is to control who transits the strait;
• will guarantee safety for a price 
• pretty impressive considering US president, VP, and senior defense officials tell us the Iranian navy is completely destroyed;
• CIA unable to locate any sign that Supreme Leader is "alive and well. 

Day 21, March 20, 2026:

• New Year's message, traditional speech; none this year; only a written statement; 
• more announcements that US is sending "thousands of US Marines" to the strait 

Day 20: March 19, 2026: 

• US response to drones announced: 
• US will deploy 64 Apache helicopters to 
• US will deploy A-10 Warthogs
• reparations: Qatar, others will certainly demand reparations from Iran when this is all over.

Day 19, March 18, 2026:

• Israel going for the jugular. Strikes Iran's natural gas fields, Pars (largest such gas field in the world; shared with Qatar). 
• probably not a good thing, and probably was bound to happen anyway, but Europe sitting this war out, probably did not help
• usually the only ones at the diplomatic table are those who were involved militarily; 
• France and Britain have been very clear they will not get into this war
• time to review the UN "stance" on current hostilities 

Day 18, March 17, 2026: 

• Khatib killed  
• Ali Larijani, Iran's top security official killed in Israeli airstrike;
• sill haven't heard from pegleg Khamenei; likely dead or in ICU on life support in Moscow;
• if all this is true, Iran is now a third world country teetering on complete chaos and mayhem 
• the slower the world is to react, the longer this war drags on. 

Day 17, March 16, 2026: WTI drops 3% overnight. Struggling to hold $100.

Day 16, March 15, 2026: indications: new Supreme Leader severely compromised — President Trump.

• not even a pre-recorded video of the new Supreme Leader
• increasing talks of Iran wanting to make deal, but actions suggest leaders aren’t united / serious;
• indications:
• Trump ready to deal
• Israel: not
• Hegseth: not

Day 15, March 14, 2026: allows India vessels to safely transit the strait. Later, same day, says all vessels can safely pass through the strait except those of the US and Israel. Indications: new Supreme Leader severely compromised.

• US mobilizing US marine expeditionary force of 2,500 US Marines
• if one looks at the entire geographical area -- the theater of operations, there's only one place they would be headed
• 2,500 US Marines would signify an MEU led by a colonel
• several (perhaps four) MEUs would make upn MEF, led by a general officer
• the I Marine Expeditionary Force (commanded by Lt. Gen. Christian F. Wortman as of 2025/2026)
• Camp Pendleton, CA
• a quick reactionary force: could they be on Kharg Island by Sunday night? 
• indications: new Supreme Leader could be seriously compromised 

Day 14, March 13, 2026: says vessels who pay in Chinese currency will have safe passage.

• mostly a day of jawboning after Trump hits Kharg Island; waiting for response
• Pentagon authorizes  a Marine expeditionary "unit" to deploy to the Mideast

Day 13, March 12, 2026: doubles down on closure of strait.

• Trump hits Kharg Island -- military targets only -- suggests that absolutely every military target on the island has been destroyed; this comes after:
•  six KC-135 personnel killed; and,
• new Iranian leadership doubles down on mining the strait 
• details still being sorted out; two KC-135 refueling tankers involved in mishap; one landed safely; the other -- search and rescue underway. Reported late afternoon eastern time US, March 12, 2026, day 13 of the war. The 13th day.
• Iran says no oil will transit Strait of Hormuz as long as Israel and the US continue bombing Iran.
• at least Iran has shown its true colors.  

Day 12, March 11, 2026: 

• literally every country in the Mideast was struck by Iran in the past 24 hours
• Iran hoping that the Mideast nations politely ask the US to declare victory and then head home 
• US has quietly shifted from expensive missiles to inexpensive bunker-busting JDAMs
• but makes sure that Iran knows 
• WTI trending toward $100 by the weekend
• Hegseth's focus: taking on the lawyers (JAGs) across the entire War Department
• Strait of Hormuz closed
• Iraq shuts down its oil export terminal after a couple of tankers struck by Iran
• nations start releasing oil from SPRs upon IEA's urging
• US release amounts to one million bbls / day; will take time; 
• produces 14 million bopd; exports 4 million bopd
• latest EIA weekly petroleum report -- certainly doesn't look like a country that needs to tap into its SPR. 

Day 11, March 10, 2026: overnight

• new Iranian Supreme Leader needs to prove he's as hardline as his dad: "Iran" says it is not looking for easing;
• indications the war is actually worsening: Turkey gets new Patriot missiles from US
• Second week of a four- to six-week war. 

Except for all those missiles, drones, and now mines being placed in the Strait of Hormuz by the completely destroyed Iranian navy. And Israel is now telling its neighbors to the north to evacuate because the nation with no more targets to hit is now beginning a new onslaught on Israel (and apparently its neighbor to the north).

It gets tedious. Me? Playing the long game and going biking, although it's freezing out there right now. Hyperbole. 

Day 10, March 9, 2026: in last 12 - 24 hours -- 

• WTI plunges: Trump signals "war may end"
• fairly quiet over the weekend;
• Iran names new "supreme leader" -- a son of the previous "supreme leader"
• WTI spikes to $108

Day 9, March 8, 2026, Sunday:

• Top leaders of QUDs, were taken out in a precision strike on a hotel in Beirut, Lebanon, yesterday, March 7, 2026; Qaani's whereabouts were unknown at the time of the strike. Link here.
• "as the crow flies," the distance from Tel Aviv to Beirut is 130 miles 
• Tehran's large oil Shahran depot appears to have been completely destroyed; attacked last night; within a week, Iran may be completely out of refined products;
• apparently three depots were hit last night; per Iran -- Kuhak, Shahran, (both in Tehran) and in the nearby city of Karaj
• Karaj: northwest of Tehran, essentially a suburb; 
• one wonders how the Iranian potable water situation is going. 

Day 8, March 7, 2026: 

• see additional specifics here; 
• for all practical purposes: WTI / Brent at $100+ 
• speculation grew that IRGC commander Qaani has been executed for spying;
• if accurate, this is huge development
• wiki link; when you see photo, you will recognize him; 
• some major developments overnight
• Iran changes policy / strategy: recognizes it was a mistake to attack to indiscriminately attack its Arab neighbors
• one doubts interim president has any control over IRGC
• command-and-control channels severely disrupted
• rogue IRGC units probably the norm 
• Iran's interim president (Pezeshkian) apologizes to neighboring countries 
• Trump responds with his "take" of what this means 
• US to deploy third US a/c carrier (historically, the US has had as many as five a/c carriers in the Mideast)
• did Saudi Arabia request more military support? 
• Saudi Arabia met with Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff (a nuclear nation) to discuss mutual defense following Iranian attacks
• long queues are forming at petrol stations in Pakistan as shortage fears grip the country 
• Saudi intercepts drones headed for Saudi's massive Shaybah oil field
• Saudi Arabia warns Iran on these attacks 
• Gulf states come under renewed attack overnight 
• Dubai airport shut down due to drone attacks 
• Iraq's Barjissia in Basra were attacked 
• Iran (IRGC) missile units target separatist groups in Iraqi Kurdistan early this morning (March 7, 2026) 
• Israel appears preparing for massive attack on Iran's Fordow nuclear facility this weekend 
• overnight, Israel attacked underground missile factory, IRGC university with over 80 jets (80 sorties or 80 jets?) 

Day 7, March 6, 2026 -- Friday: 

• Trump met with leaders of top US munitions companies; leaders commit to quadrupling munitions production 
• US State Department bypasses Congress to provide Israel $151 million in munitions aid to Israel, 
• Trump says:
• Trump says he will decide when war is over
• Trump says Iran must accept unconditional surrender
• Trump says he must have say in Iranian leadership  

Day 6, March 5, 2026

• events are moving much faster than most anticipated
• US Congress votes "to support" Trump on the war
• Kurds: boots on the ground
• I wish I could write what I'm thinking -- but can't
• folks have no idea how the patriots we have keeping the US secure
• time to re-watch Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy 
• time to get back to reading: The Quiet Americans: Four CIA Spies at the Dawn of the Cold War, Scott Anderson, c. 2021 

Day 5, March 4, 2026

• White House says US will have complete control "of the sky" by the end of the week -- that would mean no more missile launches?
• or at least the ability to neutralize them at launch; 
• Tehran's longest blackout has now stretched to 100 hours.
• WTI: flat; trading at $74.60 
• first Israeli air-to-air kill; F-35; first kill by F-35 ever by any country
• very, very surprised -- with 2,000 targets in opening days -- every airfield not taken out 
• pet peeve: lack of military information coming out of current Iran conflict
• for example, turns out, all three US bomber types deployed in initial wave 
• boots-on-ground talk -- but it won't be American boots-on-ground; Kurds eager to move in.
• Iranian navy sunk
• air dominance; intelligence dominance (vs superiority)
• leadership targeted:
• Khamenei +50: killed in opening salvo
• 2nd tier: killed when trying to establish new government
• 3rd tier: planned to meet; planned location destroyed; number of killed unknown
• Iranian strategy: drag out war; war of attrition; US-Israel can't carry on forever
• five weeks is a pretty long time 
• Tehran: water supply not getting the attention it deserves 

Day 4, March 3, 2026:

• WTI: midday, $74.29. 
• WSJ with long article on shortage of anti-missile defense getting serious
• WTI spike again, suggesting things are getting worse, not better 
• it's always darkest before the dawn
• unless I missed it, no significant US / Israeli casualties overnight 

Day 3, March 2, 2026:

• WTI: $70.91 
• Spain says US not allowed to use Spanish bases for Operation Epic Fury.
• B-2s were first in (37-hour round trip); B-1s joined Operation Epic Fury this date (March 2, 2026); B-52s on their way -- Britain gave US "limited use" permission for RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia -- as of late yesterday. 
• DHS remain unfunded
• this is what happens when one allows a Hitler-like regime / religious zealot regime to exist for 37 years (1989 - 2026)
• non-military targets are now legitimate targets
• if Iran closes the strait, Saudi's gloves come off 
• the war will quickly expand from a US-Israel operation to a US-Israel-Saudi operation;
• if not, the outcome for everyone will quickly get worse; 
• does Saudi's prince have what it takes to become a warfighter?
• with regard to the UK / Britain, I think the US and Israel learned how good a friend that country is to the US and to Israel. Two words: "not very." 

Day 2, March 1, 2026:

• Iran strikes back
• Great Britain: allows US to use its bases for limited support
• B-1s, B-2s, and B-52s will end this war
• some in Iran are said to be already trying to negotiate with Trump
• negotiations can't begin until Iran has some semblance of leadership: 
• that will happen 
• but until then, Israel and the US will trend toward destroying Iran as we know it 

Day 1, February 28, 2026:  

• opening gambit: take out Khamenei and top leadership
• Great Britain refuses to ally with the US
• Europe has indicated it will sit this one out