Sunday, May 24, 2020

Notes From All Over, Memorial Day Sunday Night Edition -- Nothing About The Bakken -- May 24, 2020

Pop quiz: quick -- cello or viola da gamba? Extra credit: how can you tell the difference? There are at least three hints, maybe a fourth one, in the clip below.

Grand Ballet, Marin Marais
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 NASCAR 

Chase Elliott was cruising to victory, only two laps left, when his teammate spun out, bringing out a caution. In "overtime," Chase Elliott comes in third. Brad Keselowski wins his first Coca-Cola 600. Jimmy Johnson takes second. Good race. [Later: Jimmy Johnson's finish was disqualified after the race; his car failed post-race inspection. Johnson's DQ put Chase Elliott in second place.]


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Global Warming Smacks Wyoming

From a reader:


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Meanwhile

Brazil: US bans non-US citizens from Brazil from entering the US, due to Wuhan flu. See stats here.

Oasis Nordeng Well With 10-Fold Jump In Production -- Jamy 24, 2020

The well:
Recent production, not recently fracked according to FracFous:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20203191909102803636588289587320
BAKKEN2-2020115141348342431
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190060000
BAKKEN11-201924542354235319317212125710225
BAKKEN10-20193199901000010679540383729416434
BAKKEN9-201930108101081212545598014060418897
BAKKEN8-201931111181112316242433432331419719
BAKKEN7-201931106701064620659422812025521716
BAKKEN6-2019000010282010082
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-2018005080000
BAKKEN9-201810325451127171316130
BAKKEN8-2018311101930445466243520
BAKKEN7-20183111501375280482945190
BAKKEN6-2018301196695540471744170
BAKKEN5-20183113431398460428439740
BAKKEN4-201826709919400344431840
BAKKEN3-2018301132932390478944890
BAKKEN2-20182811241162592441041300

Twitter Scroll -- May 24, 2020

Cuomo? Feeling pressure much? Anything to get the collective mind of New Yorkers off the nursing home debacle.

Comment: something tells me Americans could come out of this lock down faster than some think. Hard to say, but if the epicenter of the US Wuhan flu is already taking these steps ...  Long Island -- one wonders if AOC is also feeling the pressure to get folks back to work ..
Natural gas -- who would have thought? Oil plays with major impact on natural gas. This is very, very interesting. Anyone paying attention saw it coming but I haven't seen many analysts talking about it until now, but the monthly EIA dashboards foreshadowed it all.


I'm shocked! Shocked, I say!


Iraq: feeling the pain. From The WSJ --
Under pressure from low oil prices, Iraq is seeking billions of dollars in debt relief from Kuwait and moving to bolster ties with Saudi Arabia, as the coronavirus pandemic compels Baghdad to court allies that could help it stave off an economic crisis.

Finance Minister Ali Allawi, who is also deputy prime minister and acting oil minister, said he was proposing that Kuwait delay or cancel some $3 billion that Iraq owes in reparations for the 1990-91 Gulf War, when dictator Saddam Hussein burned Kuwaiti oil fields.

Iraq stopped making payments in 2014 as it battled Islamic State militants who had seized control of a third of the country but resumed in 2018. Now, 3% of oil export revenue goes to wealthier Kuwait, which is also suffering from depressed oil prices.

“That will help our cash flow very significantly,” Mr. Allawi said. “This together with other measures would help to stabilize the situation.”

Iraq has avoided a major outbreak of the new coronavirus, with fewer than 150 deaths. But it faces an economic crisis as the pandemic further weakens demand for oil, sales of which account for more than 90% of state revenue, after a Saudi-Russian battle over market supply crashed crude prices.
Comment: this suggests to me that the US will widen the gap between itself and the rest of the world as we come out of this Wuhan flu depression.
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TCM

Now, The Wings Of Eagles, a John-Wayne-a-post-WWI-naval-aviation movie -- it starts out in Pensacola, FL. Wow, wow, wow.

One has no idea how many great memories I have of Pensacola, FL. And I've only been there maybe three days. It was all a lark. But incredibly great memories.

The automobile Maureen O'Hara drives up in the opening scenes: a 1914 Stutz Bearcat. 

Which, of course, reminds me of Rota Naval Station, Spain. LOL.

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Word Of The Day

Caddie / caddy: as in someone who carries golf clubs.
From the French cadet:  mid 17th century (originally Scots): from French cadet. The original term denoted a gentleman who joined the army without a commission, intending to learn the profession and follow a military career, later coming to mean ‘odd-job man’. The current sense dates from the late 18th century.

Current usage comes from 18th century Scottish, James Boswell, describing his run home after school, in Edinburgh, in the 1740s: "...past advocates, writers, Scotch Hunters, cloth-merchants, Presbyterian ministers, country lairds, captains both by land and sea, porters, chairmen and cadies."

Cadies (sic) were young men hired to do menial tasks.

Notes From All Over -- Sunday, Memorial Day Edition, Part II -- Nothing About The Bakken -- May 24, 2020

TCM: Thirty Seconds Over Tokyo. Wow. I won't watch much of the movie, but I might re-read the wiki entry and see where this "rabbit hole" takes me. I was unaware of the San Antonio connection but it explains a lot. "First leg," as it were:
  • Eglin, FL: T/O
  • San Antonio, TX: re-fuel
  • Alameda Air Field
Later: watching the scenes over Tokyo I was quite "moved." My wife was born in Yokohama in 1949, she of Japanese (her mother) and Mexican (her father) descent. The Doolittle raid and atomic bombs later put Wuhan flu in perspective. Journalists worried about whether the president was wearing a cloth mask when touring the Ford factory earlier this week. 
Struggling. I hate to beat a dead horse, but I am really, really enjoying re-reading about the Scottish Enlightenment. See notes to the grandchildren at the bottom of this post. But I'm struggling. Our oldest granddaughter would really benefit from these two books. She would really, really enjoy these two books but it's not my place to "push on her" what I like or what I think might benefit her.
"You can lead a horse to water but you can't make the horse drink."
In addition to the political history that Arianna is really interested in and philosophy, a secondary interest, or perhaps vice versa, simply the writing and all the vocabulary is to good to not share with others. The vocabulary is most important, an opportunity that should not be lost. I have a plan. We'll see.
Open Library: amazingly, How The Scots Invented The Modern World  is freely available over at "Open Library."

Sturgis rally: somewhat "up in the air," but more than likely will occur. Link here.  Knowing the editorial slant of The Bismarck Tribune, this news probably irritates them to the nth degree. LOL.
  • Dates to know:
    • June 15, 2020: Sturgis City Council to decide
    • August 7 - 17, 2020: tentative dates for this year's Sturgis Rally
iPad: I "officially" handed over my  relatively brand-new iPad Pro to Sophia on Friday. It's hers. The iPad, the charger, and a special carrying bag, everything. She was overjoyed. She asked if it was really hers. I said, "Yes, but she would still bring it over to our apartment when she came to visit." I was a bit ambiguous in my answer about true "ownership," but now that I've been without it for two days, it appears I can live without it. My bedtime reading habits will change. I have been looking at the Apple site as well as Costco for pricing of the iPad Pro. LOL.

Take My Breath Away, Berlin

Inspired:
  • Berlin, "Take My Breath Away," Top Gun
  • Karen O, "The Immigrant Song," The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
  • Maurice Jarre, "Lara's Theme," Doctor Zhivago
  • Herman Hupfeld, "As Time Goes By," Casablanca
  • Various, movie theme songs, James Bond (link here)
  • Henry Mancini/Johnny Mercer/Audrey Hepburn, "Moon River," Breakfast At Tiffany's
  • Max Steiner/Mack Discant, theme, A Summer Place"

Notes From All Over -- Nothing About The Bakken -- The Memorial Weekend Sunday Edition -- May 24, 2020

Poker: a most enjoyable day yesterday. In the background, for about six hours, uninterrupted for the most part, I suppose -- the televising / re-run of the 2019 World Series of Poker. Absolutely mesmerizing. The 2020 WSOP, originally scheduled for late May, 2020, has now been postponed to a later, yet-to-be-decided, date in the fall of 2020.
Reading: Scottish Enlightenment, 18th century.

NASCAR: link here.
  • all you need to know: Fox, green flag 5:28 p.m. CT; tonight, Sunday;
    • weather: thunderstorms just before the race; thunderstorm during the race; 51% chance;
  • more than you need to know:
    • Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway
    • one of five night races, NASCAR's modified schedule for 2020
    • earliest start time of the five night races because it's the longest
    • four stages rather than the usual three stages
    • each stage: 100 laps; 1.5-mile oval, long-lap race
  • and there's more
    • a second Cup Series points race at Charlotte on Wednesday, May 27, 2020
    • the "replacement" race for the canceled June 14, 2020, Sonoma, CA, race; 
    • 7:00 p.m. CT; only 312 miles in length; 208 laps
  • realignment background here;
  • it appears that Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch are on speaking terms following "that wreck"; the wreck occurred Wednesday, May 20, 2020, at Darlington; tonight's race at Charlotte -- we'll see if anything comes of Chase Elliott / Kyle Busch
    • it's been my impression, the field, in general, has been very, very "polite" as NASCAR returns to racing
    • if so, I would say that is very, very "smart" of the racers; fans aren't looking for controversy or chaos at this point; they are looking for good, clean races;
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WSOP -- 2019

Final Table: nine players --
  • US: 4
  • Canada: 1
  • Britain: 1
  • Germany: 1
  • Italy: 1
  • US-based Serbian: 1
Final Table: nine players --
  • one frosh: $0 at any previous WSOP event -- Kevin Maahs, US; finished 5th, $2.2 million
  • three sophomores: each had won cash at one previous WSOP event ($12,415; $3,276; and, $927)
  • Most experienced: the Italian, Dario Sammartino, with 38 previous cash wins at WSOP events; total WSOP earnings going into 2019 WSOP tournament: $3.5 million
  • none of the nine had ever won a WSOP bracelet
  • ultimate winner: Hossein Ensan, one previous cash win at a WSOP event, $3,267)
Marchington: legal spat; 21 years old; with 35 players left, he led the field; finished 7th, $1.5 million

Note: the top nine prizes --
  • not much separation for the bottom, 5th through 9th places
  • between 4th and 3rd, a jump from $3 million to $4 million
  • between 3rd and 2nd, a jump from $4 million to $6 million
  • from 2nd to 1st, a jump from $6 million to $10 million
  • this encourages aggressive play in the first few rounds; not much to lose between fifth place and ninth place, and a great deal to win if one can finish in the top four
Observations and comments:
  • a dust-up at the table before the Final Table, between Sammartino, the Italian, and the casino dealer, suggested a poor loser, and someone who lost his concentration; and, most incredibly, acted as if he did not understand the basic rules of poker (actions, not words, rule the day)
  • Sammartino went on to recover, and finish 2nd in the tournament; mostly by playing very, very, very conservatively letting others knock each other off in a circular firing squad, leaving him alone, head-to-head with the eventual winner, Hossein Ensan;
  • Hossein Ensan: lucky, lucky, lucky. An Iranian via Germany; I've never seen anyone get so many incredible downcards; flops; and/or river cards -- it was truly incredible
  • once Ensan had his huge chip lead going to the final table (of nine), there was little chance of anyone beating him; Sammartino came close but only by pretty much staying out of the game until the end, when he was head-to-head with Ensan;
  • in addition to being plain lucky, Ensan was formidable; using his chip advantage to intimidate and ultimately literally destroy his opponents; many seemed to appear not to know what just happened;
  • perhaps most endearing: Timothy Su; Boston; software engineer, and classical musician; plays the oboe as well as other instruments; resume suggests least likely to be playing poker;
  • Kevin Maahs: perhaps my favorite personality; link here;
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Steaks
KC Cattle Company

All Waygu beef is sold out:


Wow, almost everything is sold out.

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Amazon
I need more journals and more pens. 

I can go to Walmart, fight the mask-wearing crowds, today, or simply order off Amazon and everything will be at my doorstep tomorrow.  

All I know for sure: I'm not going to Walmart today.

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Sunday Morning Waffles

Sweden Picked The Wrong Strategy. Period. Dot. -- May 24, 2020

The single Wuhan flu meme that I detest the most: Sweden did best among the Scandinavian countries. What a bunch of malarkey. Absolutely not true, and not true by a long shot. At 396 deaths per million, Sweden has more than 9x the number of deaths as Norway, on a per capita basis.

Link: country data.

Yesterday: new deaths:
  • #10 Sweden: 67
  • #87 Denmark: 0
  • #90 Finland: 0
  • #93 Norway: 0 
Deaths per million population:
  • #8: Sweden at 396
  • #12 USA at 298
  • #25 Germany at 100
  • #26 Denmark at 97
  • #34 Finland at 55
  • World at 44
  • #41 Norway at 43
I track the Scandinvian Wuhan flu statistics here.

Updates

May 16, 2020: update -- In fact, Sweden did not "win the contest," by criteria set by the mainstream press:

 
Original Post
 
Yesterday I posted this:
Sweden and Wuhan flu: Sweden is getting a lot of positive press about how that country handled the coronavirus. When one actually sees the data, one gets another impression. If one has time to read only one article on Wuhan flu today, this would be the article
This is the meme: Sweden won the argument.

Here is the graphic:


The CDC default spreadsheet is ranked by total number of cases, which is incredibly irrelevant, immaterial, and illogical. But for the record, here is the ranking provided by the CDC based on total number of cases:
#1: USA
#2: Spain
#3: Italy
#4: UK
#11: China
#14: Belgium
#22: Sweden
#39: Denmark
#44: Norway
#52: Finland
Now, rank them on number of total deaths per capita:
#1: San Marino
#2: Belgium
#3: Andorra
#4: Spain
#10: Sweden (283 deaths per one million population)
#14: USA
#23: Denmark (87 deaths per one million population)
#32: Finland (44 deaths per one million population)
#38: Norway (40 deaths per one million population)
Total deaths:
Sweden: 2,854
Denmark: 503
Finland: 246
Norway: 215
Sweden:Norway
  • 13x the number of total deaths
  • 7x the number of total deaths/capita
By any measure, Sweden did much, much worse than its Scandinavian neighbors, and it wasn't even close.