Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Update on Active Rigs

Update on active rigs.

This information is based on my data and could be incorrect in some places but is pretty close, I think.  Current data is available at the NDIC website.

The record for number of active rigs in North Dakota is 134, reached a few days ago (July 5, 2010, to be exact). Today, there are 133 active rigs in North Dakota.

Of the major operators, compared to when I last looked (June 11, 2010), CLR has gone up another two (2) rigs to stand at 20; EOG remains the same at 13; Whiting has increased by one (1), to 12.

Slawson has had as many as seven (7) rigs; currently it has six.

Most interesting, and perhaps very telling is this: BEXP has remained steady at five (5). BEXP seems to be among the biggest promoters in the Bakken but has not increased the number of its rigs significantly during this boom.

The other drillers remain the same; a few have gone up one or down one but that might be just a temporary phenomenon. One exception: Baytex is now up to three (3) rigs -- up from having none in North Dakota just a few months ago.

Fidelity, a subsidiary of MDU with headquarters in Bismarck, North Dakota, with the Bakken in its very backyard, has only one active rig in North Dakota.

But you don't need rigs to be successful in North Dakota; there are other business models. NOG is one example of a successful company with no rigs.

Investment Links

Dividend Announcements: Streetinsider

Futures including oil): CNBC

The market: Bloomberg




This will be a new link at the top of the web page.

CNBC Ranks The 50 States on Business Climate: North Dakota #12 Overall

CNBC ranks the 50 states based on business climate.

North Dakota is #12 overall.

I was surprised to see the discrepancy in cost of living between South Dakota (#5) and North Dakota (#17).  Texas is #8.  I guess that's what state income tax will do to one's cost of living.  Utility costs should be a wash: North and South Dakota have similar winters (although North Dakota is much colder); and the cold winters (heat) are offset by the hot summers (air conditioning) in Texas.  Neither Texas nor South Dakota have state income taxes. North Dakota does.

I was very, very surprised to see New York's economy ranked #2. Texas is #1; North Dakota, #3; South Dakota, 4; and, Minnesota, #5.

North Dakota does not stand out in any of the other categories, except for maybe "business friendliness," at #10.  But we could be doing a lot better if we wanted, I would think.  New York is #45 with regard to "business friendliness" but as noted its economy is #2.

With regard to cost of business, I was really, really surprised that the liberal bellwether state of Iowa was ranked #1 and North Dakota was #15. Our legislators really need to look at what Iowa is doing. Iowa was ranked #6 overall.

I was surprised by eduction ranking: New York, #2; and, North Dakota, #18. Also, Arizona (#45) and Mississippi (49) are practically tied. Something tells me the immigration story in Arizona is tied to the education story. Criteria with regard to education: traditional measures of K-12 education including test scores, class size and spending.

New Jersey Rules Miranda Rights Must Be Given in Accused Subject's Language (of Preference)

New Jersey first state to rule that Miranda rights must be given by police in the accused subject's language of preference. No, it doesn't quite say that, but the results are the same.

I can't make this stuff up.

The Joint Commission that accredits all US hospitals (which they need if they want to receive Federal funding or be reimbursed by insurance companies) "requires" translators be available for every language that someone might use in an emergency room setting. Hospital emergency rooms now have translators on call for 25 - 50 different languages in some urban areas. 

Severe Russian Drought -- Boon for ND Farmers?

Worst drought in 130 years.  Yeah, that's a long time. Boon for ND agriculture?

Upcoming State Leases

Upcoming North Dakota state leases.

Deep Water Rigs Moving Out of the Gulf: Probably Never to Return

This is the fourth rig that is moving out of the Gulf (Discoverer Americas drillship/Transocean) that I know of, and can document a link. This is a Transocean rig which will move to Egypt next week (mid-Sept, 2010). The Marianas in the next paragraph has already departed for Nigeria. (Links break without subscription after period of time.)

This is the third rig that is moving out of the Gulf (Marianas/Transocean) (actually, it's the third rig that I know of, and can document a link). This is a Transocean rig which will move to Nigeria, and is under contract with Italy's ENI. I doubt "we" will ever see this rig back in the Gulf -- at least in my investing lifetime. 

This is the second rig to move out of the Gulf (Ocean Endeavor/Diamond Offshore). Once moved, unlikely to return for a very long time.

The story of the first rig to move from the Gulf is posted here (Ocean Confidence/Diamond Offshore).

So much for American energy independence.  Louisiana is in a world of hurt. That's what happens when they elect a governor the administration does not like. The administration directs yet another moratorium on off-shore drilling, based on criteria other than depth of water. Anything to destroy the oil industry.

NEWS

September 1, 2014: the statement that rigs are never likely to return seems to have been wrong. There are reports that the GOM is "back."

May 29, 2012: more evidence that after-spill actions taken by the government caused more economic damage than the incident itself.
Only days after the incident, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar issued a moratorium on new permits for deepwater offshore oil drilling over strenuous objections from the industry and the impacted region itself. The Gulf Coast's continued support for offshore drilling is unsurprising, given that though the moratorium only applied to 33 applications, those included some of the more profitable projects for the region. A report from Louisiana State University estimated the cost to the region of a moratorium could reach as high as $2.1 billion and more than 8,100 jobs. Across the country, the report expected as many as 12,000 jobs to be lost.

One year after the implementation of the moratorium, a study conducted by Quest Offshore Inc. for the National Ocean Industries Association and the American Petroleum Institute suggested that slowed drilling permit approvals under the Obama administration and the moratorium had contributed to the loss of more than 60,000 jobs through the Gulf region from 2008 to 2011.

An API-commissioned study from Quest Offshore estimated even more dramatic losses, suggesting that as many as 90,000 jobs had been lost in 2011 alone. As many as 11 offshore oil rigs were thought to have left for calmer waters in Brazil, Egypt and Angola, with total costs for the Gulf Coast through 2015 estimated at around $21.4 billion.
December 30, 2011: interesting spin by the AP.  Compare this article with the industry's take on the permitorium in the story below, dated December 23, 2011. This is all about spin-Obama. In case the link breaks, this is a story that says that after 18 months, the "Gulf is back." 

December 23, 2011: despite a lifting of the ban on drilling in the Gulf, rigs not coming back

July 22, 2010, on CNBC: Diamond Offshore/CEO on CNBC says the Gulf moratorium will result in direct loss of about 200 US jobs. Some of the senior employees on their rigs will move with the rigs to Africa. The CEO is concerned that if the moratorium is prolonged, training of personnel to work on deep water rigs will shift overseas, eventually ceding US dominance in deep water drilling to other countries. (Personally I doubt that will happen, but the employees will be coming from countries other than the US as these rigs move overseas.)

Market Up; Oil Up!

2nd quarter earnings starting to come out.

Good luck to all. I wish I had more time to post, but spending time with family and traveling, so lengthy posts will have to wait.

But Bakken stocks are headed up.


Alcoa: earnings up, better than expected
CSC: earnings up, better than expected
INTC: posts biggest profit in a decade; beats analysts' expectations
YUM: profits better than expected; misses analysts expectations