Friday, November 13, 2020

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- November 13, 2020

Link here

This Has Nothing To Do With A Chinese Flu Vaccine -- And, Oh, By The Way, This Has Just Begun -- November 13, 2020

I think this election revealed the fallacy of the blue tide; the red state vs blue state; the GOP vs the Dems.

It is very clear that we have moved into the era of haves and the have-nots; the investor class vs the non-investor class. And maybe we've been there for quite some time. I don't know. All I know is that the tea leaves suggest the next four years is going to be incredibly good for the investor class. It's already starting. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

There is a meme out there that investors have always done better under a Democratic administration and Warren Buffett strongly supported Joe Biden, as did Bill Gates. 

If a Chinese flu vaccine story turns out to be a good story, the market will surge. If the vaccine is delayed, Schumer/Pelosi will pass a multi-trillion dollar stimulus bill. And Pelosi is already looking at mid-terms less than two years away.


Well, this is strange. 

For $4.99/month it was impossible to not sign up for TV+ -- so I signed up last month.

Today, out of the blue, as William Shakespeare might say, I get an e-mail from Apple telling me that they will refund me the $4.99/month for the months of November, December, and January. They provided a reason why they were being so generous but I did not understand the reason.

I suppose since one can sign up and cancel on a monthly basis, they want me to watch for 90 days, figuring it takes at least 90 days to get hooked.But it is weird. I have to subscribe each month, pay the $4.99, and they Apple will refund me the $4.99.

Reading The Tea Leaves: Hess Sells Interests In Gulf Of Mexico -- November 13, 2020

Link over at Rigzone

Hess Corp. reported Friday that it has completed the sale of its 28-percent working interest in the Shenzi Field in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico (GOM) to operator BHP.

“This transaction brings value forward in the current low price environment and further strengthens our cash and liquidity position,” remarked Hess CEO John Hess in a written statement emailed to Rigzone. “Proceeds will be used to fund our world class investment opportunity in Guyana.”

Hess owns a 30-percent stake in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana. Exxon Mobil Corp. operates Stabroek.

Staggering -- But Not In A Good Way -- November 13, 2020

Link to Tsvetana Paraskova

The lede

The oil price collapse is depriving Saudi Arabia of US$27.5 billion in oil revenues this year, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said on Friday, admitting that the current oil income is not enough to cover the Kingdom’s salaries bill.  

Data points:

  • one year ago, Saudi forecast 2020 revenue at $222 billion (US)
    • $137 billion (US) from oil
  • in fact: 2020 oil revenue, $109 billion (US)
  • annual budget:
    • salaries: 504 billion riyals ($137 billion)
    • capital spending: 173 billion riyals ($40 billion)
    • social security benefits: 69 billion riyals ($20 billion, rounded)
    • operation and maintenance: 140 billion riyals ($37 billion)
    • total: 886 billion riyals ($236 billion)
  • so:
    • tripling the value-added tax (VAT)
    • reducing payouts to poorer households
    • discontinuing cost-of-live allowances for state workers
  • no mention of the $75 billion dividend paid by Saudi Aramco
  • no mention of cost of imports on which the kingdom relies
  • but look at this: Fitch Ratings
    • Saudi Arabia's long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR): NEGATIVE rating

A Closer Look At A Hess BW-Spring Creek Well In Cherry Creek -- November 13, 2020

The well:

  • 28088, drl/A, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-12-1H-4, Cherry Creek, t--; cum 41K 9/20; a 32K month;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


  • fracked 7/14/20 - 7/27/20; 8.976 million gallons of water; typical frack in the Bakken; 87.5% water by mass;

From the file report:

  • spud date: April 24, 2020
  • cease drilling: April 3, 2020
  • original wellbore: 15,972' MD
  • sidetrack 1: 21,548' MD
  • logging services began March 27, 2020, 7:39 a.m.CT
  • KOP reached at 10,660' MD on March 27, 2020, 9:21 p.m. CT
  • curve: began on March 29, 2020, at 2:15 a.m. CT
    • curve landed at 10:47 a.m. March 29th, 2020; holy mackerel!
  • lateral began at 12:06 p.m. CT on March 31, 2020
    • 10' target centered 15' below the top of the middle Bakken;
    • a lower Bakken shale strike occurred at 15,972' MD on April 1, 2020;
    • pulled back; sidetrack began;
    • lateral cease drilling at 21,548' MD on April 3, 2020 at 6:53 p.m. CT; quite incredible;

No New Permits; Four Producing Wells (DUCs) Reported As Completed -- November 13, 2020

 Numerous significant errors in today's activity report. I've correct them below.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1655655438

Operators with rigs

  • MRO: 3
  • CLR: 2
  • Slawson: 2
  • BR: 2
  • WPX: 2
  • Petro-Hunt: 1
  • Oasis: 1
  • Hess: 1 (oil and gas)
  • Midwest AgEnergy Group (CCS): 1
  • Hess, water, not an oil and gas rig: 1

No new permits.

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36202, SI/A, CLR, Polk Federal 5-33H, Banks, t--; cum --; [Daily Activity Report had this one wrong]
  • 36204, SI/A, CLR, Polk Federal 7-33H, Bank, t--; cum --; [Daily Activity Report had this one wrong]
  • 36544, drl/A, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 2016 3H, Stony Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 28088, drl/A, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-12-1H-4, Cherry Creek, t--; cum 41K 9/20; a 32K month; see this note;

Notes From All Over -- Mid-Day Edition, Part 2 -- November 13, 2020

SRE: Mexico will give LNG conditional export permit -- AMLO! Link here.

  • Sempra Energy's local IEnova unit likely will receive an export permit for a proposed liquefied natural gas facility in northwest Mexico, as long as the company helps offset an oversupply of gas in the area, Mexican Pres. Lopez Obrador says. 
  • The President says he is inclined to approve the permit but stresses what he considers excess natural gas in the area around the northern Pacific coast, given that state-owned power company Comision Federal de Electricidad does not use the fuel to generate electricity. 
  • Lopez Obrador says supply contracts signed by the previous government obliged CFE to buy natural gas that is not needed
  • The comments appear to walk back the government's interest in requiring IEnova to build a second LNG export facility before approving the pending plant in Ensenada, which was reported in August. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

SRE: I've always considered "SRE" a $124-stock. Currently up over 1.3%; up $1.74 -- now trading just over $134.  

Notes From All Over -- Mid-Day Edition -- Chariots On Fire -- November 13, 2020

This was reported a few days ago. I can't recall if I posted it. I'm surprised that it took San Francisco this long.

Does anyone remember 1906?

San Francisco will ban natural gas hook-ups in new buildings starting next year (2021) -- excepting restaurants which will probably not be around any more any way after the next six-week Chinese flu lockdown. 

Reported everywhere but here's the Bloomberg article via Rigzone.

The fact that PG&E Corp supported the ban speaks volumes. 

I don't know whether propane will be banned in San Francisco. If not, entrepreneurial opportunities abound. 

Chariots On Fire

GM is recalling nearly 69,000 Bolt EVs for fire risks. Link here. Couldn't they just update the software? That's what Elon Musk would do. Ah, yes, that's a fix:

GM said the vehicles pose a risk of fire when charged to full, or nearly full capacity. GM said it has developed software that will limit vehicle charging to 90% of full capacity to mitigate the risk while GM works to determine the appropriate final repair.

Market Surge

This is nothing about the Covid-19 vaccine. This is all about the proposed $3-trillion Schumer-Pelosi stimulus.


Reminder: AMLP. Link here. The Alerian MLP ETF distributes a single Form 1099 to its shareholders.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Golden Gate Bridge: will be bailed out by Feinstein, Pelosi, et al. Is there any question on this one? Link here.

Refineries: Shell to shut down Louisiana refinery. Convent refinery. How fast? By the end of the month. Wow. Decision in line with Shell's plans to reduce the number of refineries it operates from 14 to 6 over the next four years. Think about that. 

Vision 2030: Prince Salman going against the grain -- his vision is to build more refineries. Lots of CAPEX and refined products may not be needed.

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- OPEC Surges -- November 13 ,2020

Covid vaccine: recent enthusiasm seems to have tempered a bit. 

OPEC basket: $43.42, up over 4%. Not sure what's happening. There was a bit of commotion near Saudi's Jazan oil products terminal yesterday.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1555655438

Two wells coming off confidential list -- Friday, November 13, 2020:

RBN Energy: making sense of the hydrogen buzz. Archived.

Everywhere you look these days, someone is talking about hydrogen and, if you’re not well-versed in emerging technologies aimed at reducing carbon, you may not know what any of it means. A quick internet search isn’t much help either, as you will likely get lost quickly in discussions of fuel cell efficiency and electrolysis technology developments, not to mention the various “colors” of hydrogen and the myriad of ways it can be stored and transported. Don’t bother turning to your traditional green energy gurus either, as hydrogen is just one of many competing approaches to reducing the world’s carbon footprint, and electric vehicle folks like Elon Musk aren’t big fans. All the same, hydrogen news and investment plans seem to proliferate daily, and understanding this fuel — which, by the way, is not new to the energy space — seems prudent. At least that’s our view, which is why we today start a series to help us hydrocarbon experts unravel the mysteries behind the recent hydrogen ruckus.

To be honest, when we started looking into the subject of hydrogen for a blog, it seemed like a fringe subject. Our assumption was the topic likely merited some analysis but could probably be filed away with other various “industry-changing” topics that buzz through the markets every now and then. We also thought it would be pretty quick and easy to get the low-down on the key ingredient in stars. After all, what is there to know really? Isn’t hydrogen just an element that makes our classic hydrocarbons so full of energy? Well, turns out we were wrong, at least in part. Nothing about the current hydrogen buzz is simple and the topic is far from straightforward to get your mind around. That said, with a little time spent you can see that the basic elements of using H2 as an energy source are in many ways not all that far removed from some familiar topics many of us have mastered in understanding the traditional hydrocarbon value chain. Regarding whether or not the hydrogen chatter is just a fad, time will tell. However, it does seem like supply and demand fundamentals may be converging in a way that may ultimately cement hydrogen’s role in the domestic energy market.

A Reader Weighs In On Calcasieu Pass -- November 13, 2020

Yesterday I posted a piece on a new LNG export terminal in Louisiana: Calcasieu Pass. Link here

I really don't understand any of this. The story caught my eye because I had not heard of this site before. 

A reader who writes me regularly on LNG export terminals and has been a great source for helping me contemplate the future when it comes to LNG sent me a note after I posted the Calcasieu Pass story:

The ongoing construction process at Calcasieu Pass offers a glimpse of the potential for several other proposed US LNG plants, specifically using pre-manufactured, smaller modules that are shipped to location  and assembled onsite.

The Tellurian project and the Rio Grande LNG operation will each produce 27 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) using this approach if and when they decide to proceed to construction.

The 10-mtpa Calcasieu Pass project has a mirror image plant - only twice the size - ready to go by the same company at Plaquemines Parish if the market deems it worthwhile to build.

Note: For some context, size-wise, Qatar had announced a 33=mtpa increase in production (from current 77 to 110 mtpa), before increasing the expansion to 126 mtpa.

The 4 above mentioned US plants - Calcasieu Pass, Plaquemines Parish, Tellurian's Driftwood, and Next Decade's Rio Grande LNG will have a total combined output capacity of 84 mtpa.

(As an aside, the cold boxes for CP come from an intriguing company ... Chart Industries. These guys are manufacturing all sorts of hardware - particularly smaller scale storage - that is enabling other companies to profitably place smaller, gas-fired power plants in remote, small locations worldwide).

The speed at which all this is occurring is simply breathtaking.

It looks like A is for Apple, B is for Bakken, and C is for Calcasieu Pass.

Apple's New Chip Is Apparently "The Real Deal" -- Part 2 -- November 13, 2020

"Apple is trying what no other computer company has been able to pull off." -- Daniel Howley, Finance!Yahoo technology editor, link here.  

That pretty much says it all.

Howley's lede: 

Apple’s most widely known product, by a country mile, is its iPhone. It’s the device that has helped turn the company into an empire and pushed its market valuation past the $2 trillion mark in August, a first for a publicly traded U.S. company. 
And while the new iPhone 12 lineup is expected to kickstart a major increase in device upgrades and sales, the biggest news out of Apple (AAPL) in 2020 has little to do with its popular smartphone. Instead, the company’s most significant advancement in years comes in the form of its new M1 system on a chip, or SoC.

From the article:

From a practical standpoint that means, as Apple tells it, that its new MacBook Air will offer 3.5 times the CPU performance and 5 times the GPU performance of the previous generation Air, all while extending battery life from 12 hours of video playback to a whopping 18 hours
What’s more, the Air won’t have an internal fan, so you won’t have to listen to the annoying whir of your laptop as it struggles to cool itself down while streaming Netflix. 
The MacBook Pro, meanwhile, gets a 2.8 times faster CPU thanks to the M1 chip and a 5 times faster GPU. That’s a massive gain for a system that professionals rely on for things like high-end video and photo editing. Oh, and it gets, according to Apple, 20 hours of battery life when using video playback.

Somehow I'm missing something. Apparently a lot has been written about the MacBook Air fan. I have two MacBook Airs -- I've never heard the fan. I honestly did not know there was a fan in the computer.  

But I guess there is. Review at The Verge. Great review by the way. 

If there is one thing that I enjoy more than the Bakken, it's Apple.

Yesterday, November 12, 2020, I posted:

Note: there will be more typographical errors, content errors, grammatical errors, and just plain poor writing than usual this morning due to "situations" beyond my control. I will come back to fix these errors later this morning. 

This is way too geeky for me, way above my pay grade, and I would not have posted it, except for the comments in social media regarding this story.

The other day, Apple held its third of three events in the past two months. This event was to announce the new chip that Apple itself is manufacturing after it broke away from Intel. 

Apple, of course, said it was their fastest chip ever. And they are releasing the chip first in their lower-end computers, which are now available for ordering. 

Normally, when and where these announcements are made, Apple is attacked for various reasons. But not this time.

 Apparently this is a big, big deal. Apparently these are really fast chips. 

The link is here. I'm not sure if you will get much out of the article. I certainly did not. But the comments were quite enlightening, to say the least. 

But look at that headline: the new Apple chip, the "Apple Silicon M1" chip, or simply the "M1" chip in MacBook Air outperforms high-end 16-inch MacBook Pro.

That is simply astounding. The MacBook Air is "low-end." Something high school students and college-bound students might use.

But for professionals? Give me a break. They won't be caught dead with a MacBook Air. They "need" a high-end 16-inch MacBook Pro.

By the way, as an aside, over the weekend I held a high-end 16-inch MacBook Pro in my hands for the first time ever the other day. 

It was so much lighter (and thinner) than the MacBook Pro I had years ago. After problems with that MacBook Pro (hard drive problems) I went to the MacBook Air exclusively and never looked back.

The MacBook Pro may now be completely solid-state, no hard drive, I don't know. If so, then that's no longer an issue. 

But I still maintain that for the masses, the MacBook Air is a much, much better deal than the MacBook Pro. 

Wow, what a digression.

Go to the article at the link. Breeze through it. Then read the comments.

Fast And Furious -- Fifteen Minutes -- November 13, 2020

Top story: White Castle breaking ground on huge new restaurant. Wow, I love America. It's hard to believe but one of the first things I remember about Minnesota: White Castle. I forget but I must have been in college in Sioux Falls, SD, when we took a run to Minneapolis, MN, to get something to eat. I had no idea White Castle was still around. Good for them. What a great country.

Stimulus: Trump was looking for less than $1 trillion. Folks thought I was crazy suggesting $2 trillion. Well, here we go: $3.4 trillion. No links. Story everywhere. Remember: the Fed's Jay Powell has said the Fed has done all it can do with regard to "saving" the economy. Jay Powell says he needs help from Congress. There is no evidence of any inflation, some say (it depends where one looks, I say). Dollar seems to be doing fine. Canadian dollar has really bounced back (linked at sidebar at the right.)

Dow futures: up 240 points. Gee, I wonder if there is a connection?

RH: huge bet by Warren Buffett paying off. Link later, if I remember.

Turkey: pleads for F-35 deal with Trump before Biden takes office.

Vitol: signs Texas deal to convert used, waste tires to fuel.

Apple: more on the company's new chip.  We talked about this before. Will find the link later if I remember. Whatever. Here's a review/analysis by Yahoo!Finance technology editor. Re-reading this: big enough story to make it a stand-alone.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Biden lockdowns: gonna be tricky. Disney upset that parks are still closed in California. 

SRE: back in May, apparently it was trading as low at $86. Currently trading at $132. It's been as high as $160 in the past twelve months but I've always considered it a $124-stock. Pays 3%.

I better repeat this:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Big story today? Disney.

Can you say Webex? Cisco stock jumps on earnings beat.