Sunday, December 9, 2018

Nothing To Do WIth The Bakken -- December 9, 2018

I don't know how many folks are familiar with the 2014 "dark comedy" Birdman starring Michael Keaton.

It's an incredibly good movie. I had to watch it two or three times to realize how really good it is. It is on my list of top ten movies.

The theme of the movie is how movie critics, particularly those working out of NYC and who have "no" idea of Hollywood can make or break a film with their reviews. Edward Norton's character meeting a NYC movie critic played by Lindsay Duncan is perhaps one of the best scenes that sets the theme of the movie.

I thought about that after reading the critics' review of It Happened on Fifth Avenue:
The Washington Post thought the celebrity endorsements (by Frank Capra, Orson Welles, Al Jolson, Constance Bennett and others) used in the movie's advertising to be "high-flown" and "Hollywoodesque"; instead, the movie was a "mild, pleasant little film which probably will find many admirers."

Time magazine said,
Most plausible explanations for the picture's success are: 1) the presence of Victor Moore, past master of creaky charm and pathos; 2) a show as generally oldfashioned, in a harmless way, as a 1910 mail-order play for amateurs; 3) the fact that now, as in 1910, a producer cannot go wrong with a mass audience if he serves up a whiff of comedy and a whirlwind of hokum.
Bosley Crowther in The New York Times praised its "geniality and humor" and the "charming performance" by Moore. The New Republic disagreed, calling it "childish stuff" and Moore "too cute for words".
I just finished watching IHOFA on TCM. I had planned on watching Sunday Night Football but I was so engrossed by the movie I did not watch a minute of the first half of that game (I just checked in; it's halftime, 6 -6; I must not have missed anything).

I loved the movie. It's truly unfortunate movie critics did to the movie what they did. Fortunately, the audience "saved it." Great, great film for folks like me.

The Incredible Bakken -- December 9, 2018

From an earlier post of "things to follow up": 
June 9, 2018: 18365, 1,379, EOG, Liberty 8-01H, Van Hook, Bakken; t7/10; cum 334K 4/18; far to the south, EOG has three wells on DRL status and they will run parallel to #18365: #33019; #33020; #33021; 
Those three wells have been completed and remain on confidential status but they are producing:
  • 33019, conf, EOG, Fertile 85-0701H, Parshall, t--; cum --
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 33020, conf, EOG, Fertile 84-0701H, Parshall, t--; cum --;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 33021, conf, EOG, Fertile 86-0701H, Parshall, t--; cum --;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

The Incredible Bakken -- December 9, 2018

This well has not been refracked. See last month's post here. The Midnight Run wells are tracked here.
  • 20325, 2,846, BR, Midnight Run 21-1MBH, Union Center, t12/11; cum 321K 10/18; recent production --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Incredible Bakken -- December 9, 2018


March 29, 2019: I said this page won't be update, but production data might be update on occasion. Note that this well has come off-line:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Original Post 

This page will note be updated. Look at this post for background. Look at the production profile for most recent month:

The well:
  • 32971, 8,702, MRO, Whitebody USA 14-23H, Reunion Bay, 57 stages; 12.9 million lbs, t8/18; cum 170K in less than three months:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Another Example Of The Incredible Bakken -- December 9, 2018

This page will not be updated. For details, see this post.
  • 20212, 482, CLR, Whitman 3-34H, Oakdale, t9/11; cum 260K 10/18; API: 33-025-021261; according to FracFocus, it was re-fracked 9/23/17 - 10/5/17, with 9.8 million gallons of water, with water 84% by weight and proppant 15% by weight; a sundry form in the file shows that the re-frack was 61 stages and 14.5 million lbs of sand; a Three Forks frack; which is interesting because this was originally a Middle Bakken well; the Three Forks horizontal was a re-entry well drilled in July, 2017; the IP for the re-entered Three Forks horizontal was 1,006 bopd; there is no data that this well was fracked after 4/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

For The Archives -- December 9, 2018

Enerplus' "heavy metal" pad is the first pad to be named to the "Monster Wells, Generation 3" page. It is the first pad to be named, but it won't be the last. Not by a long shot. Up until now, only individual wells were added to "monster well" lists.

Creep, Postmodern Jukebox

Permian Estimates -- Jaw-Dropping -- Oilprice -- December 9, 2018

This is what I was waiting for all weekend: articles on what the USGS survey of the Permian mean; what the implications are. From oilprice:
This week the United States Geological Survey (USGS) announced a groundbreaking oil and gas discovery in West Texas’ Permian Basin.
According to the organization’s recent press release, a whopping 46.3 billion barrels of oil, 281 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 20 billion barrels of natural gas liquids are now believed to lie untapped in the Wolfcamp Shale and overlying Bone Spring Formation area of Texas and New Mexico’s Permian Basin.
Major players in the energy industry already have a significant presence in Wolfcamp and Bone Spring, including Occidental Petroleum Corp. and Pioneer Natural Resources Co.
It was already well known and well documented that these fields were remarkably fertile grounds for oil extraction, but the jaw-dropping extent of the new figures released this week by the USGS has made the massive crude and shale reserves of the Permian Basin freshly headline-worthy. The figures in this week’s press release are in fact, in the case of Wolfcamp Shale, more than double the previous resource assessment.
USGS press release here.

Again, from the linked article, the author noted:
Additionally, these discoveries come at a particularly opportune time for West Texas, as a major injection of funding has just been provided toward infrastructure the West Texas area via a federal grant supported by U.S. Senator John Cornyn. The grant, which comes from a program led by the U.S. Department of Transportation's Better Utilizing Investments to Leverage Development (B.U.I.L.D.) will direct money to infrastructure projects in Winkler, Glasscock and Reagan Counties.
One can be pretty sure that Beto, who will probably run again Cornyn would never have submitted such a request. Beto's platform, I assume, aligns with Hillary's. Stop fracking.

US Natural Gas -- A Reader Referenced "2014" Some Weeks Ago -- December 9, 2018

For background, see this post.

Wow, What Would We Do Without Wiki?

From wiki, regarding "Into The Mystic":
According to a BBC survey, because of this song’s cooling, soothing vibe, this is one of the most popular songs for surgeons to listen to while performing operations.
Singer-songwriter Elvis Costello has identified this song as one of his favourite songs on Moondance, one of his 500 essential albums.

Into The Mystic, song by Van Morrison, sung by Joe Cocker

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Next Week; Enerplus Will Report A Huge Well -- December 9, 2018

Note:  eighteen wells are coming off the confidential list this week; only two of them have a "Three Forks" designation in their legal name.

Monday, December 17, 2018:
34869, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-11-2H-6, Wolf Bay, producing;
34611, conf, Petro-Hunt, Klevmoen 153-95-17C-7-2H, Charlson, a huge well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Sunday, December 16, 2018:
34023, conf, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-7, Blue Buttes, no production data, 

Saturday, December 15, 2018:
34868, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-11-2H-5, Wolf Bay, one month of production;
34202, conf, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-6, Blue Buttes, no production data,
32842, conf, BR, Remington 4A MTFH, Blue Buttes, no production data, the Remington wells are tracked here;

Friday, December 14, 2018:
34201, conf, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-5, Blue Buttes, no production data, 

Thursday, December 13, 2018:
33967, conf, Enerplus, Cobalt 147-93-09D-04H, Moccasin Creek; a huge well; the Enerplus "Heavy Metal" pad is tracked here:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Wednesday, December 12, 2018:
34115, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Neal 2-33-28H-144-95, Murphy Creek, producing, 
34114, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Twist 2-4-9H-143-95, Murphy Creek, producing,
33893, conf, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-4, Banks, no production data, 

Tuesday, December 11, 2018:
33892, conf, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-3, Banks, no production data, the SC-5WX wells are tracked here;

Monday, December 10, 2018:
33891, conf, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-2, Banks, no production data,

Sunday, December 9, 2018:

Saturday, December 8, 2018:
34117, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Neal3-33-28H-144-95, Murphy Creek, producing,
34116, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Twist 3-4-9H-143-95, Murphy Creek, producing;
33239, conf, Oasis, Muri 5198 12-4 8T, Banks, a nice well;
32531, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA153-95-4A-9-6H, Charlson, no production data,
30546, conf, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-9H, Antelope, producing,

It's Always Darkest Before The Dawn -- The Market, Energy, And Political Page -- December 9, 2018

Link here to SeekingAlpha:
  • Chevron released its 2019 capital budget this week, but before we look at that, let's take a look at the company's YTD financial performance.
  • Through the first three quarters of 2018, Chevron delivered an impressive $13.5 billion in FCF - which equates to $7.04/share.
  • As a result, the company's strong $4.48 annual dividend (3.9%) and re-started share repurchase plans are in great shape.
  • Chevron remains my top pick of the international integrated companies and is cash-flow neutral at $50/bbl Brent (it closed Friday at $61/bbl).
  • The recent sell-off has the stock trading on the cheap. It's a great buying opportunity for excellent income and capital gains potential. 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

From the linked article, two items:

All of this free-cash-flow generation is the result of a production profile that continues to be the best of the integrated majors.
Average daily production is expected to be up ~7% this year.
Big Foot, a big project in the GoM that has had a checkered past, just recently achieved first oil. Big Foot is designed for a capacity of 75,000 bopd and 25 MMcf/d of natural gas. Chevron is the operator and has a 60% working interest. Equinor, the old StatOil, has a 27.5% stake.
Chevron's working interest in Big Foot equates to 45,000 bpd oil and 15 MMcf/d natural gas net to Chevron. That significant even for a company of Chevron's size and is a positive catalyst moving into 2019.
Glass Ceilings -- And This Is Why We Have Them

From an earlier post with very slight editing:
Meanwhile, in the White House, lots of changes being announced for the second half of the Trump's first term. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert is Trump's choice to succeed Nikki Haley as US ambassador to the United Nations, even as the White House moved to downgrade the job from a Cabinet-level position. Nauert, a former Fox News host who arrived at the State Department in 2017, would be a relatively inexperienced newcomer in one of the most high-profile positions in US diplomacy. Her nomination sets the stage for a potentially tough Senate confirmation hearing, where [mostly old white men] will likely grill Nauert on her qualifications for the position.
Pretty Boys

Is it just me or does it appear the three pretty boys of politics, across two continents and three nations, are starting to implode? Beto, Macron, and Trudeau. Beto could be the outlier but the other appear to have crashed and burned.

Preliminary Study Regarding The Middle And Lower Benches Of The Three Forks -- Geo News -- December 9, 2018

This was posted as an update to an earlier post but it is too important to be lost, so I am reposting it:
Don sent me a link to an article in the January, 2018, issue of Geo News. It should download as a pdf on your desktop:
From that article:
There is currently limited geological information available regarding the petroleum geology and economic importance of the middle to lower Three Forks.
Resource assessments of the Three Forks Formation have ranged from approximately 2 to 4 billion barrels of recoverable oil, but these assessments have been limited to the upper Three Forks (Nordeng and Helms, 2010; Gaswirth et al., 2013).
This article reports the preliminary findings of a recently initiated study on the origin and distribution of oil saturations within the middle Three Forks. It also reviews the present production footprint of 2nd bench horizontal oil wells and projects their potential future distribution.
In addition, I am examining oil saturations and hydrocarbon production in the lower Three Forks (3rd and 4th benches).
The author is Timothy O. Nesheim.

As noted, this article is a "work in progress." Unless I missed it, the author did not provide estimated reserves in the middle or lower benches of the Three Forks.

Don suggests it is likely that this paper is part of the ongoing USGS survey of the Bakken/Three Forks.
See How Many Faces You Recognize

Sun Records Medley

US Department Of The Interior Press Release -- December 6, 2018

Another e-mail from December 6, 2018, that I missed, from the USGS:

Date: December 6, 2018Contact: 

USGS Identifies Largest Continuous Oil and Gas Resource Potential Ever Assessed

Estimates Include 46.3 Billion Barrels of Oil, 281 Trillion Cubic feet of Natural Gas, and 20 Billion Barrels of Natural Gas Liquids in Texas and New Mexico’s Wolfcamp Shale and Bone Spring Formation
WASHINGTON - Today, the U.S. Department of the Interior announced the Wolfcamp Shale and overlying Bone Spring Formation in the Delaware Basin portion of Texas and New Mexico’s Permian Basin province contain an estimated mean of 46.3 billion barrels of oil, 281 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 20 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, according to an assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This estimate is for continuous (unconventional) oil, and consists of undiscoveredtechnically recoverable resources.
"Christmas came a few weeks early this year," said U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke. "American strength flows from American energy, and as it turns out, we have a lot of American energy. Before this assessment came down, I was bullish on oil and gas production in the United States. Now, I know for a fact that American energy dominance is within our grasp as a nation."
“In the 1980s, during my time in the petroleum industry, the Permian and similar mature basins were not considered viable for producing large new recoverable resources. Today, thanks to advances in technology, the Permian Basin continues to impress in terms of resource potential. The results of this most recent assessment and that of the Wolfcamp Formation in the Midland Basin in 2016 are our largest continuous oil and gas assessments ever released,” said Dr. Jim Reilly, USGS Director. “Knowing where these resources are located and how much exists is crucial to ensuring both our energy independence and energy dominance.”    
Although the USGS has previously assessed conventional oil and gas resources in the Permian Basin province, this is the first assessment of continuous resources in the Wolfcamp shale and Bone Spring Formation in the Delaware Basin portion of the Permian. Oil and gas companies are currently producing oil here using both traditional vertical well technology and horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing.
The Wolfcamp shale in the Midland Basin portion of the Permian Basin province was assessed separately in 2016, and at that time it was the largest assessment of continuous oil conducted by the USGS. The Delaware Basin assessment of the Wolfcamp Shale and Bone Spring Formation is more than two times larger than that of the Midland Basin. The Permian Basin province includes a series of basins and other geologic formations in West Texas and southern New Mexico. It is one of the most productive areas for oil and gas in the entire United States.
“The results we’ve released today demonstrate the impact that improved technologies such as hydraulic fracturing and directional drilling have had on increasing the estimates of undiscovered, technically recoverable continuous (i.e., unconventional) resources,” said Walter Guidroz, Program Coordinator of the USGS Energy Resources Program.
Undiscovered resources are those that are estimated to exist based on geologic knowledge and already established production, while technically recoverable resources are those that can be produced using currently available technology and industry practices. Whether or not it is profitable to produce these resources has not been evaluated.
USGS is the only provider of publicly available estimates of undiscovered technically recoverable oil and gas resources of onshore lands and offshore state waters. The USGS Delaware Basin Wolfcamp shale and Bone Spring Formation assessment was undertaken as part of a nationwide project assessing domestic petroleum basins using standardized methodology and protocols.
The new assessment of the Delaware Basin Wolfcamp shale may be found online. To find out more about USGS energy assessments and other energy research, please visit the USGS Energy Resources Program website.

Apparently The NDIC "TOP LINE" Rig Count Is Accurate -- December 9, 2018

A huge apology to a reader. This note was sent to me three days ago and I missed it. I get a lot of e-mail and I can miss things.

With regard to "that" question about the NDIC rig count being inaccurate: a reader wrote the NDIC on this issue and got the following response:
Thank you for reaching out.
We are having some computer’s that are not syncing as per usual so the rigs are showing up for multi well pads.
For example if a with is drilling two wells on a pad both wells are showing up instead of the rig just once. It’s not affecting the rig count at the top but we are working on getting this glitch updated. 
So, direct from the "horse's mouth," as they say.

And a huge thank you from the reader for sending me this information.

Comment: the timing of the note is incredibly coincidental. I was going to post a note of my own regarding the rig count, but then forgot. If I post now what I was thinking then no one would believe me anyway so it won't be posted. LOL.

Idle Ramblng On A Sunday Morning -- December 9, 2018


Later, 10:28 a.m. CT: see first comment and my reply. A reader asks,
Big reactors may be on the outs for economic reasons versus natural gas. How about modular reactors that can be on site with refineries, auto plants, etc. Why isn't this mentioned anymore in media. Could be available from startups like the one funded by Bill Gates.
Transatomic to Shutter Its Nuclear Reactor Plans, Open-Source Its Technology.
The startup backed by Peter Thiel won’t be able to build its advanced reactor designs—but it’s making its IP available for others to carry on the work.
By the way, when someone "open-sources" its technology, that speaks volumes about how valuable, or should we say invaluable, a technology is perceived to be by its "current owner."

Original Post 


Later, 7:36 p.m. CT: Bloomberg must be reading the blog. Several hours after posting the note below, I ran across the Bloomberg article suggesting that all of Europe is turning "right." Wow. 

Original Post
Two unrelated data points. First, France.

In a not-ready-for-prime-time e-mail to a reader earlier this morning, paraphrased:
  • Spain: "far right breakthrough sends shockwave through Spanish politics" -- Drudge Report link
  • Italy: new immigration laws got attention of the EU
  • Germany: Merkel soon to be out
  • Brexit: on the ropes
  • Macron: ?
One wonders if Hillary had been president would things be a whole lot different in Europe. She would certainly have had a different relationship with Europe and she certainly would have supported their liberal causes.
One wonders to what extent the "Trump effect" is having on Europe?
Second: nuclear reactors.

Presidents are change agents. They also have access to where the Deep State plans to take the US twenty to thirty years down the road.

My hunch is that Hillary made the decision to see a significant reserve of US uranium to Russia after getting the briefing from the Deep State that the US was going to phase out nuclear energy over the next twenty to thirty years. After getting the briefing she knew the US was sitting on a worthless resource. Time to sell it.

That came to mind when Don sent me this link: US to shut down Idaho nuclear waste processing plant. It wouldn't have been shut down had it not been needed, and it would not be needed if the US were phasing out nuclear reactors.

Certainly no new nuclear reactors are being contemplated for the US. The US is already shutting down nuclear reactors. From Forbes earlier this year:
Another U.S. nuclear plant is at risk of being closed prematurely and replaced by fossil fuels.
Last week, the owner of the Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa, NextEra, announced it had secretly negotiated a deal with a state electric utility to close the plant early.
If all of the announced nuclear closures go forward, the total number of operating nuclear reactors in the United States will decline precipitously — from 99 to 89 — by 2025.
The amount of clean electricity lost from those 10 reactors would be 23 percent more than all of the solar electricity generated in the U.S. in 2017. 
Many, many story lines here, but 20-20 hindsight suggests to me that instead of focusing on Hillary's personal gains in the Russian uranium deal, the big story was another open book test. Hillary may have enjoyed some of the spoils of that sale, but it would not have gone through if the Deep State PowerPoint Presentation did not show that the Deep State was going to replace nuclear energy with wind and solar energy, perhaps a strategy that gained momentum after March 11, 2011.

On Hanukkah

From Rabbi Sharon Kleinbaum in advance copy of My Jewish Year: 18 Holidays, One Wondering Jew, Abigail Pogrebin, c. 2017.
I love the anit-militarist aspect of the story of Hanukkah, despite its being about a military episode.

We are celebrating the miracle of the oil, instead.

That's remarkable-- that here is this great military event, but what we're actually remembering with the ritual of lighting the candles is that somebody had the chutzpah, the faith, the hope, to take a tiny little vial of oi and imagine that it would last.

I think that's so profound for us today. You can imagine everybody around him or her, saying "Nudnik, why are you even lighting that little oil? It's not enough give up, don't even try. what's the point?

That speaks to all of us today that feel such despair about the conditions in the world, our ability to have impact in our lives. The hanukiah, or menorah, says "start with whatever you have, use it well, and trust that there will be a future beyond that one day."

Texas High School Football -- December 9, 2018

From memory, so there may be more errors than usual.

Texas football.

At 6A (highest "level"):

Our "local" team, a historic Texas powerhouse, Southlake, played Duncanville last night. Duncanville has never beat Southlake, or if they have, it's been a long time since that happened.

Both Southlake and Duncanville are DFW metroplex teams. They both came into the game undefeated for the season. They were ranked #5 and #6. I believe Duncanville was ranked #5.

The score: Duncanville beat Southlake ... 51 to 7.

Duncanville now goes on to the semifinals to play Allen, TX. Allen is ranked #1. Allen is the defending state champion.

Last year, to win the Texas state championship, Allen defeated Midway .... 51 to 7.

One last item of note. The Heisman winner last night: Kyler Murray. From wiki:
Murray attended Allen High School in Allen, Texas.
As a senior in 2014, he was the Gatorade Football Player of the Year.
His team won three straight state championships and 43 games in a row. He missed one start during this streak and finished his career with a perfect 42–0 record as a starting quarterback.
Time to watch the movie. From wiki:
Friday Night Lights is a 2004 American sports drama film, directed by Peter Berg. The film follows the coach and players of a high school football team in the Texas city of Odessa, which supported and was obsessed with them.
The book on which it was based, Friday Night Lights: A Town, a Team, and a Dream (1990) by H. G. Bissinger, followed the story of the 1988 Permian High School Panthers football team as they made a run towards the state championship.
A television series of the same name premiered on October 3, 2006 on NBC. The film won the Best Sports Movie ESPY Award and was ranked number 37 on Entertainment Weekly's list of the Best High School Movies.
Duncanville's mascot? The Panthers.

FWIW: Atmospheric CO2 Update -- December 9, 2018

Most recent reading:

A year ago: 405.92 ppm at this link.

The precision to two decimal places --
  • is unnecessary
  • is most likely a false precision
  • but gives the number more "gravitas" (who would believe the number if it were simply rounded to 410?)

Putting The Bakken Into Perspective -- December 9, 2018


Later, 10:07 a.m. CT: Don sent me a link to an article in the January, 2018, issue of Geo News. It should download as a pdf on your desktop:
From that article:
There is currently limited geological information available regarding the petroleum geology and economic importance of the middle to lower Three Forks.
Resource assessments of the Three Forks Formation have ranged from approximately 2 to 4 billion barrels of recoverable oil, but these assessments have been limited to the upper Three Forks (Nordeng and Helms, 2010; Gaswirth et al., 2013).
This article reports the preliminary findings of a recently initiated study on the origin and distribution of oil saturations within the middle Three Forks. It also reviews the present production footprint of 2nd bench horizontal oil wells and projects their potential future distribution.
In addition, I am examining oil saturations and hydrocarbon production in the lower Three Forks (3rd and 4th benches).
The author is Timothy O. Nesheim.

As noted, this article is a "work in progress." Unless I missed it, the author did not provide estimated reserves in the middle or lower benches of the Three Forks.

Don suggests it is likely that this paper is part of the ongoing USGS survey of the Bakken/Three Forks.

Original Post

At one million bopd, the Bakken produces (365 million bbls x 3 years =) one billion bbls every three years. Unfettered, of course, the Bakken could produce more than 2 million bopd, or one billion bbls every year and a half.

So what?

At the sidebar at the right, there is a long list with "Other Formations." Here is the link to "Norway," for example.

And from that page, the most recent post:
December 8, 2018: from Equinor's website, this date -- Johan Sverdrup—the North Sea giant Johan Sverdrup is one of the five largest oil fields on the Norwegian continental shelf.

With expected resources of between 2.1—3.1 billion barrels of oil equivalents, it will also be one of the most important industrial projects in Norway in the next 50 years. The development and operation of this enormous field will generate revenue and provide jobs for coming generations.
My hunch is that the next USGS survey of the Bakken/Three Forks will be the equivalent of adding several such fields to the Williston Basin. It is unlikely the next survey will include Three Forks B2 and B3 because so few wells have been drilled into the lower Three Forks.