Sharp Reversal: US NG Fill Rate -- And Winter Has Just Begun; Huge Natural Gas Draw Reported -- November 21, 2018 -- 134 BCF Withdrawal Vs Historic Average Of 24 BCF

Updates

Later, 6:44 p.m.: how big was this draw reported today? A reader who follows this very, very closely sent this (see first comment):

This seems to be the earliest triple-digit withdraw on record, after a quick scan of the modern data back to 2010. 

In fact, some years didn't even see a triple digit withdrawal for the whole month of November. Average withdrawal for this week in November is 24 BCF. Compare that with the withdrawal this week, 2018: 134 Bcf.

There was 3,789 Bcf in storage as of November 15 2013 (ie, the November before the 2014 winter)  

Later, 6:40 p.m.: New England is hanging in there just fine. See this link. Tomorrow should be fine -- a holiday and then Friday and the weekend should be fine. Next real test: next Monday and next week.

 Original Post

From November 9, 2018:

See North American blizzard of 2005.

Today, the actual data from the EIA:

Right on cue: a reader two weeks ago predicted that either last weekend or this past weekend would be the last weekend that we would see a net increase in natural gas storage. It looks like the week before last was the last week this season that we would see a "net increase."

The small print:

• first week this season, a net decrease
• a decrease of 134 Bcf from the previous week
• stocks were 620 Bcf less than last year
• stocks were 710 Bcf below the five-year average
• It's hard to read on the graphic, but it appears:
• in 2014: 3,400 Bcf in storage
• in 2018: 3,100 Bcf (small print says 3,113 Bcf)
• 3400-3100 = 300
• 300 / 3400 = close to 10% below what we saw in the worst winter in recent history (2014)