Sugar -- Whoo-hoo! August 20, 2024

Locator: 48482DEFLATION.

Link here. Chocolate should be a lot less expensive at Target this weekend. If not, gouging. Call the DNC!

SunPower -- August 20, 2024

Locator: 48481SOLAR.

Link here. 

I really don't care about this any more, but it's a great graph, and great for the archives.

AI -- August 20, 2024

Locator: 48480AI.

Link here. 

There are two camps in America with regard to AI:

• AI is all hype;
• AI is real; it's not hype.

I'm in the second camp.

All I see is the need for a lot of electricity.

My Favorite Chart -- Posted August 20, 2024

Locator: 48479MMF.

Link here.

Now, compare the data through July 31, 2024, with the DJIA on that same day:

With all that money on the sideline (MMF), the DJIA was trading around a 52-week high. 

I'm Thinkin' Some Great Things Could Come Out Of The Hess - Chevron - Exxon Mobil Tiff -- Just Saying -- August 20, 2024

Locator: 48478GUYANA.

I'm thinkin' ....

So many ways for investors to play this ...

Link here.

********************
Benzinga

Link here.

The Market Today -- And Mary Beth Schneider -- August 20, 2024

Locator: 48477INV.

Link here. 

********************************
From Twitter Today

Link here.

The BR Ole Wells In North Fork -- August 20, 2024

Locator: 48476BR.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38141, 77, Ole 7-1-29TFH, McKenzie County;
• 38143, 1,704, Ole 8-1-29TFH, McKenzie County;

Well of interest:

• 17433, 658, BR, Ole 1-29H, North Fork, t5/10; cum 292K 6/24; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2024	27	2099	1909	5024	3825	3374	126
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	2820	2862	5883	4796	4262	154
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	1578	1644	3701	2702	2254	81
BAKKEN	3-2024	16	877	861	2149	1286	1041	44
BAKKEN	2-2024	1	0	0	0	1	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2023	14	26	0	106	177	0	2
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	79	0	522	408	15	5
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	78	0	1124	408	24	8
BAKKEN	8-2023	1	22	0	110	28	13	2
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	476	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	17	383	176	138	599	367	19
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	1206	1086	301	1937	1493	56
BAKKEN	2-2023	26	1147	995	268	1750	1379	45
BAKKEN	1-2023	11	721	739	100	990	819	33
BAKKEN	12-2022	1	5	0	1	14	0	1

The maps:

 

Five New Permits; One Permit Renewed; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 20, 2024

Locator: 48475B.

Energy: hedge funds are pouring into energy right now, link here: 

 Well, that makes me feel better. I'm doing the same -- Bakken oil, and Texas natural gas pipelines.

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.04.

Active rigs: 37.

Five new permits, #41042 - #41046, inclusive:

• Operators: Hess (4); Oasis
• Fields: Alger (Mountrail); Glass Bluff (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Oasis has a permit for Sedge well, SENE 1-152-102; 
• to be sited 2194 FNL and 437 FEL;
• Hess has permits for one EN-Dobrovolny-LE well and three EN-Cvancara wells, NWNW 27-155-93; 
• to be sited 480 FNL with the four wells at 844 FWL; 877 FWL; 910 FWL; and, 943 FWL.

One permit renewed:

• 40150, CLR, Marshall 3-224H, Little Knife, Dunn County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38141, 77, Ole 7-1-29TFH, McKenzie County;
• 38143, 1,704, Ole 8-1-29TFH, McKenzie County;

Cramer's First Hour -- August 20, 2024

Locator: 48474CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of fact, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC. 

Cramer's first hour: longest winning streak, US equities, in twenty years.

Cramer:

• overbought
• people getting a bit too complacent
• recommends folks become / remain cautious
• some suggest that folks are over-exuberant, but Cramer doesn't buy that --
• too many people in Nvidia right now
• right now, too much on the line
• semiconductors, the group
• 22% in ten days!!!

Electricity demand surging:

WTI:

• Cramer feels that WTI could plummet (even more than it already has) in price if Trump wins

Airlines:

• Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian merger clears US DOJ review!!!
• truly amazing; not on my bingo card today
• Boeing: grounds 777x due to engine mounting issue -- say what?
  

Mis-stating Kamala Harris position:

• Harris has said nothing about "price control." But will watch signs of price-gouging
• all that talk about raising the corporate rate to 28% -- oh, give me a break
• prior to Trump: 35%
• compromise: drop corporate rate to 28%
• Trump: blew right through the 28%-number and moved the rate to 21%
• Harris wants to bring it back to 28%
• and, everyone knows the tax-rate and what corporations actually pay is similar to baseplate capacity of wind farms

Companies of note that Cramer mentioned:

• Palo Alto Networks: up 2.2% yesterday
• CrowdStrike: still a long way to get back to where it was; past six months, down almost 20%
• Lilly CEO: wants US government / health insurers to pay the high price of Ozempic drugs; that will happen.

***********************************
Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

***********************
529

Wow, wow, wow!

I started blogging about the incredible advantages of the "529" about six months ago. I can't say enough about 529s.

Now, today, Schwab has an article on 529s. Specifically "Grandparent-owned 529s." Link here. 

Individuals can also use 529s as a wealth-transfer vehicle. "Under current law, you can gift up to $18,000 per beneficiary per year to a 529 without dipping into your lifetime gift tax exclusion amount of up to $13.61 million in 2024," Chris says.

What's more, 529s have a special provision that allows you to contribute five years' worth of gifts in a single year if you treat them as happening over five consecutive years for tax purposes. That means a married couple could contribute up to $180,000 in 2024 to any number of eligible family members—though they won't be able to make additional contributions to those accounts for another five years.

*********************************
DNC Convention

Last night while listening to some pretty amazing speeches at the DNC Convention: highlights of the DNC convention last night, from The New York Times.

Incredible to see Biden / Hillary on "the stage" for the very last time. Biggest takeaway: if AOC moves a bit to the mainstream, she could be a formidable force on the national stage eight years from now. But at a minimum, Harris has to win for AOC to move forward.

For all that concern about protests, open warfare on Chicago streets, or worse, nothing of substance reported. In fact, protestors for the most part did not even bother to show up. 

I can't even imagine how one debates Trump. How does one debate a delusional octogenarian? In his eighth decade of life; in less than two years, he will be in his ninth decade.

Walz: efforts to try to tie Walz with China won't go anywhere. I have no idea what that's all about; haven't read anything about that issue, but my hunch is that going down that rabbit hole begins here. From US Wheat Associates:

Only issue I care about:

• 1960s: the Vietnam War; life and death for men, ages 18 - 38.
• 2020s: emergency care for women; life and death for women, ages 14 to 44.

My feelings: too many Americans not paying attention. We've seen this movie before.

 *********************************
Reptilia

My "project" while listing to the DNC Convention speeches last night.

Guyana -- August 20, 2024

Locator: 48473GUYANA.

In the oil sector has there been any more exciting story than Guyana in the past five years? 

Seriously, has there been?

It's amazing: I found it interesting enough as far back as 2021 to post a very long blog on Guyana. Link here. 

Quick: where is Guyana located? Okay, a bit too tough. Let's start here, in which hemisphere is Guyana located?

• north or south?
• west or east?

Today (posted yesterday) RBN Energy has an update on Guyana. Link here. Full article is archived.

RBN Energy: Guyana's growing crude output increasingly finding homes among west coast refiners.

Guyana’s crude oil production is surging, a trend that is expected to continue through the rest of the decade, and with no domestic refining industry its exports are booming. Shipments of Guyana’s medium-density, sweet-ish crude to the U.S. have ramped up and are increasingly making their way to the West Coast, which relies on imports given its lack of easy access to domestic shale crudes and limited regional output. In today's RBN blog, the second in a series, we‘ll examine where Guyana’s barrels are ending up and how they stack up against competing grades.

So, where is all that Guyana oil ending up? West Coast, United States. Who wudda thought? How's it getting there?

There are three key routes: (1) the Panama Canal; (2) the Petroterminal de Panama Trans-Isthmian Pipeline (PTP) and associated terminals; and (3) a longer and somewhat riskier route around Cape Horn, the southernmost tip of South America.

Type of oil coming out of Guyana? Heavy.

This is where I track "kinds" of oil.

From RBN Energy:

Guyana’s crude supply with a gravity ranging from 28-33.5 API might complement the current pool of heavier crudes that are available from other imports or the Gulf of Mexico. Denser crudes like these have been in relatively tight supply for some time, largely because of OPEC+ curtailments, and volumes could shrink even more with Mexico seeking to eventually halt crude exports.

Based on location and weight of Guyana oil, who might be most at risk with regard to US imports? Saudi Arabia.

BRK -- August 20, 2024

Locator: 48472BRK.

In the news, BRK, Warren:

• BofA: cut his holdings.
• AAPL: slashed his holdings.
• SNOW: sold all of his SNOW shares.

Return:

• BRK:
• full year: up almost 30%
• five years: up almost 130%
• AAPL:
• full year: up almost 30% (slightly less than BRK)
• five years: up almost 350%
• at beginning of 5-year period, shares selling for $50
• at end of 5-year period, shares shelling for $225
• so, (225-50)/50 = 3.5 -- amazing how the numbers worked out

From TipRanks this morning: is BRK missing out on AI tailwinds?

• aside from Apple, until he sold SNOW, his AI-related holdings: BYD, AMZN, and SNOW
• those three represented less than 0.6% of his invested assets
• with his invested assets only part of his overall business activities, BYD, AMZN, and SNOW would have been significantly less than even 0.6% of his entire portfolio
• in big scheme of things, why does a fund like BRK even hold shares in any position that represents less than 5% of the overall value of the "fund"?
  
• compare with Norway's sovereign wealth fund: is focused on AI investments

Absolutely fascinating.

• it would be interesting to see a demographic analysis
• my hunch:
• investors over age 65: major position in BRK:
• follow BRK closely
• leery of Mag-7; really leery of UBER
• investors under age 30: major position in UBER
  
• don't even bother with BRK
• heavily invested in Mag-7; love UBER

**********************************
Silas Marner x 2

Taco Tuesday -- For US, It's Velvet Taco -- August 20, 2024

Locator: 48471B.

DNC convention: fascinating.

Reptilia: really happy with the gains I made last night in sorting out "reptilia" taxonomy, evolution, and origins. More on that later.

BRK: fascinating. More on that later, also.

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.42.

Wednesday, August 21, 2024: 52 for the month; 108 for the quarter, 434 for the year
40392, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HZ,
39900, conf, Liberty Resources, Elroy E 158-95-7-6-2MBH,

Tuesday, August 20, 2024: 50 for the month; 106 for the quarter, 422 for the year
40391, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HB,
40345, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay E Federal 5292 11-3 2BX,
39800, conf, Enerplus, Opal 148-95-03A-10H,

RBN Energy: Guyana's growing crude output increasingly finding homes among west coast refiners.

Guyana’s crude oil production is surging, a trend that is expected to continue through the rest of the decade, and with no domestic refining industry its exports are booming. Shipments of Guyana’s medium-density, sweet-ish crude to the U.S. have ramped up and are increasingly making their way to the West Coast, which relies on imports given its lack of easy access to domestic shale crudes and limited regional output. In today's RBN blog, the second in a series, we‘ll examine where Guyana’s barrels are ending up and how they stack up against competing grades.