Sunday, December 21, 2014

More Re-Fracked MRO Wells -- December 21, 2014

I find this fascinating, looking at MRO wells that have been re-fracked.

Look at some of these "re-fracks." Prior to the re-frack, these wells were producing on the order of 1,200 bbls/month; after the frack, some of the wells jumped to more than 27,000 bbls in one month. Some will note the decline in some wells; regular readers know my reply to that.

  • 17502, 637, MRO, Mark Sandstrom 14-32H, Reunion Bay, t12/08; cum 290K 10/14;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  •  17556, 553, MRO, Debb Stroh 44-11H, Killdeer, t12/08; cum 180K 10/14;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • 17753, 553 (no typo), MRO, Strommen 34-8H, Killdeer, t6/09; cum 193K 10/14:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • 17771, 585, MRO, Jay Sandstrom USA 34-3H, t3/09; cum 244K 10/14:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

More MRO Re-Fracked Wells -- December 21, 2014

I find this fascinating, looking at MRO wells that have been re-fracked.
  • 16940, 299, MRO, Kupper 43-10H, Chimney Butte, t4/08; cum 168K 10/14;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 17176, 482, MRO, Ted Kupper 14-23H, Chimney Butte, t7/08; cum 215K 10/14; 

  • 17314, 431, MRO, Brown 24-9H, t8/08; cum 172K 10/14;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • 17333, 356, MRO, Harold Benz 24-24H, Chimney Butte, t9/08; cum 160K 10/14;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

To-Do List, First Thing Monday Morning -- December 22, 2014

Tomorrow, first thing, on the way to work, or at lunch, when you drop by the big box store to pick up your Tums or whatever, drop something in the Salvation Army red kettle. I know some folks don't know what to put into the kettle. So, to make it easier, here's the recommended amounts:
  • Bakken mineral owner millionaires: $1,000 gold coin, at least one, apparently available from the US mint
  • Bakken surface owner: $100 gold coin
  • everyone else: one to three $20 bills, depending on how much your spouse gave you to spend this week
Two Great Christmas Songs

He's A Rebel, Darlene Love and Bette Midler
I Will Follow Him, Peggy March

10 Of 21 Bakken Wells To Go To DRL Status; QEP With Three Huge Grail Wells -- December 21, 2014

Monday, December 22, 2014
  • 27235, drl, Strata-X, Rohweder 1-11, Niobrara pool, wildcat, no production data,
  • 27940, drl, Hess, GN-Cambrian-159-98-2536H-1, Big Stone, no production data,
  • 28040, drl, SM Energy, Torgeson 2B-15HN, West Ambrose, no production data,
  • 28188, 846, Samson Resources, Stingray 1819-6H, Ambrose, pt11/14; cum 8K 10/14;
  • 28219, drl, Slawson, Sniper Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 28362, 17, Enduro, MRP 25-41, Mouse River Park, a Madison well, t8/14; cum --
  • 28517, 79, Legacy, Legacy Et Al Wunderlich 5-8 2H, Red Rock, a Spearfish well, t8/14; cum 10/14;
  • 28600, conf, Oasis, Chalmers 5301 44-24 4T2R,  Baker, Three Forks 2nd bench, 80% within target interval, low background gas, no production data,
Sunday, December 21, 2014
  • 27788, drl, XTO, Johnson 43X-27G, Murphy Creek, no production data,
  • 27915, drl, Slawson, Bootleg 7-14-15TFH, Stockyard Creek, no production data,
  • 28037, 132, OXY USA, Martin 6-31-30H-144-96, Cabernet, t6/14; cum 20K 10/14;
  • 28038, 460, SM Energy, Torgeson 2B-15HS, West Ambrose, t11/14; cum 1K 10/14;
  • 28096, drl, Hess, EN-Dobrovolny A-155-94-2413H-4, Manitou, no production data,
  • 28527, 1,140, CLR, Anderson 3-4H, Willow Creek, high background gas, averaging almost 2,000 units with a max of 6,772 units in the first half of the lateral, in the target zone 97% of the time, "which should allow for excellent production opportunities, 30 stages; 4.5 million lbs all ceramic, t11/14; cum 3K 10/14;
  • 28623, drl, Statoil, Field Trust 7-6 8TFH, Todd, no production data,
Saturday, December 20, 2014
  • 22628, 276, Triangle, Triangle 149-101-1-12-4H, Antelope Creek, t11/14; cum 8K 10/14;
  • 27370, 103, OXY USA, Federal Kubik Trust 4-19-18H-143-95, Murphy Creek, t5/14; cum 2K 10/14;
  • 27457, conf, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-26B-35-9H, Eagle Nest, no production data,
  • 27992, 2,320, QEP, Moberg 2-20-21BH, Grail, t8/14; cum 72K 10/14;
  • 27993, 2,620, QEP, Moberg 1-20-21BH, Grail, 32 stages; 8.2 million lbs sand; , t8/14; cum 129K 10/4;
  • 28006, 2,188, QEP, Moberg 17-16-20-21LL, Grail, t8/14; cum 121K 10/14;
  • 28186, 625, Samson Resources, Charger 0706-8H, Ambrose, t11/14; cum 4K 10/14;
  • 28250, drl, Hess, EN-Johnson A-155-94-2932H-4, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  • 28526, 746, CLR, Anderson 2-4H1, Willow Creek, t10/14 cum 5K 10/14;

27992, see above, QEP, Moberg 2-20-21BH, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

27993, see above, QEP, Moberg 1-20-21BH, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

28006, see above, QEP, Moberg 17-16-20-21LL, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Darlene Love's Last Performance On The David Letterman Show -- December 21, 2014

This is a keeper. This is bittersweet.

This will have been the last time Darlene Love will sing her Christmas classic on the David Letterman show.

Baby, Please Come Home, Darlene Love

I have a number of her past David Letterman performances over at my milliondollarfugue blog. (Do not open that blog unless you have a really good internet connection and a good computer; the site tends to freeze up if not enough memory or a poor internet connection.)

She was on the David Letterman show December 19, 2014; this was posted on YouTube the next day. As of now, there have been 212,303 view; it will be interesting how it does over time.

The background to this story is quite remarkable. I believe one can find the background somewhere on YouTube. Here's a supercut of her previous performances.

The guitarist in the 9-person backup band certainly looks like Chris Stein, but then all old men look the same to me.

Is The Oil Glut A Myth -- Zeits -- Seeking Alpha -- December 21, 2014

Over at SeekingAlpha, the article summary and lede:
  • The severity of the oil price drop appears to be in disconnect from some “supply glut” indicators that remain at moderate levels.
  • The price decline does not appear to be caused by an inventory pile up throughout the delivery and storage chain but rather by the lack of supply or demand elasticity.
  • The current imbalance between supply and demand appears to be much “softer” than in the 2008-2009 correction and may be easier to address.
The phrase "oil glut," as it relates to the current situation in the market, has been used by financial and general interest media in the past two months so frequently that one may get an impression that it represents a generally accepted explanation of the recent oil price collapse. At a closer examination, one might discover that the term conveys a somewhat distorted picture of the current dynamics in the oil market.
This is very much in agreement with what Saudi spokesmen seemed to have been saying all along. I assume if Saudi wishes to create a glut, all they have to do is increase production, and then we can really watch the price of oil fall.

The Red Queen Is Running Faster And Faster -- Average Production Per Well Per Day -- December 21, 2014; ObamaCare Re-Enrollment Apparently Not Required; Enrollees Will Be Automatically Re-Enrolled

The following data, through 2010, was posted back on January 11, 2012. I was curious what the numbers show now. These are the updated annual NDIC numbers -- year, daily oil per well (annual production) -- # of wells (change from previous year):
  • 2013: 83 (314 million) -- 10,301 wells (change: 1,932 wells)
  • 2012: 80 (243 million) -- 8,369 wells (change: 1,808 wells)
  • 2011: 64 (153 million) -- 6,561 wells (change: 1,261 wells)
  • 2010: 58 (113 million) -- 5,300 wells (change: 700 wells)
  • 2009: 48 (80 million) -- 4,600 wells (change: 400 wells)
  • 2008: 41 (63 million) -- 4,200 wells (change: 400 wells)
  • 2007: 33 (45 million) -- 3,800 wells (change: 300 wells) -- the first year of the Bakken boom
  • 2006: 31 (40 million) -- 3,500 wells
  • 2005: 29 (36 million) -- 3,400 wells
  • 2004: 26 (31 million) -- 3,400 wells
  • 2003: 24 (29 million) -- 3,400 wells
  • 2000: 27 (33 million) -- 3,300 wells
  • 1990: 28 (37million) -- 3,600 wells
  • 1980: 46 (40 million) -- 2,400 wells
  • 1970: 37 (22 million) -- 1,600 wells
  • 1969: 37 (23 million) -- 1,700 wells

  • 1960: 39 (22 million) -- 1,500 wells

  • 1951: 72 (26,196 bbls) -- one (1) well, by the way
By the way, currently the average amount of oil per well per day, as of October, 2014: 103 bbls (the record was set in September, 2014, at 104 bbls/well/day. In October, 2014, 11,507 producing wells produced a total of almost 37 million bbls of oil, or, on average, 1,182,174 bbls of oil per day.

On another note, the Peak Oil folks just cannot give up. For the archives: it is now confirmed, the IPs of new Bakken wells are declining. It should be noted that the study only went back to November, 2013. The author if of the belief that the "initial 24-hour production number" strongly correlates with how well that well will do. I wouldn't give the author's conclusions much credence. It should be noted that there at least three new issues affecting production: a) new flaring rules; b) new conditioning rules; c) the plummet in oil prices. These issues are relatively new but oil companies have seen them coming (at least the first two) for several months now. I take the study with a grain of salt. That, and $1.89, will get you a Starbucks coffee.

Another ObamaCare "Gotcha"

Back on December 3, 2014, I posted:
This is actually pretty clever; I did not see this one coming.

There must be at least a dozen telephone carriers with whom I can contract for cellular service, including Verizon, ATT, Sprint, several regional carriers, and probably even over the internet (TimeWarner or Dish) if I was that clever. But I contracted with Sprint twenty (20) years ago and never switched. I still use Sprint.

We have two options for internet and television here in the DFW area: TimeWarner and Dish (there may be others; I'm not aware). I signed up with TimeWarner when I got here, the same carrier I had had for 13 years in San Antonio. I will probably stay with TimeWarner forever; I don't even look at Dish offers.
In Texas, electric utilities are de-regulated; consumers can switch utilities willy-nilly every month if they want. I have been with one utility since I arrived and have no plans to switch.
It turns out that consumers of health care insurance share the same behavior. Even though there is an annual "open season," very few consumers switch health care once they have a policy. Sure, they have to re-enroll, but usually they just get a note (electronic or snail mail) that says they are automatically re-enrolled if they do nothing
Now, just a few days later, this is being reported as BIG news. In fact, it's not BIG news (see above). It's hardly news; it's simply a wrinkle on what BIG HEALTH CARE already does. If you are currently enrolled in ObamaCare and for any reason "fail" to re-enroll for calendar year 2015, DO NOT DESPAIR: apparently, the government is going to automatically enroll you in the program they feel is best for you depending on whatever data they already have on you. I cannot make this up. The Washington Times is reporting:
ObamaCare sign-up trap: Sign up at one time in your life and we will never let you go. If you don’t continually re-enroll each and every year, CMS will keep you on the plan that it chooses because, after all, CMS knows what’s best and they always make the best decision. Oh, and if you don’t believe that, please go to the 600 million dollar website that will give you all kinds of testimonials handcrafted by MIT professors.

MROs Higher Density Pilots -- December 21, 2014

Back in January, 2014, I posted links to CLR's density projects.

A reader sent me the link to MRO's recent corporate presentation. Marathon also has four (4) operated high density pilots in three major areas: its Myrmidon, Hector, and Ajaz prospects. From my "Snapshot" page:
  • Myrmidon: northwest corner of the reservation
  • Marfa: MRO's largest area; southwest of the reservation; borders the reservation, Dunn County -- Marfa DOES NOT show up on most recent presentation
  • Hector: eastern area of Marfa, just outside of the reservation, Dunn County
  • Ajax: continuation of Marfa, southwest of Marfa, Dunn County
  • Brodahl Pilot: 6 x MB; 6 x TF1, 4Q14 spud
  • TAT USA 34 Pilot: 6 x MB, 6 x TF2, 6 x TF2, 1Q15 spud
  • Lucy Fleckenstein Pilot: 6 x MB, 6 x TF1, spud August 2014
  • Hecker Pilot: 6 x MB, 4Q14 spud
By the way, if you do visit slide 14 at the linked presentation above, the slide says the Myrmido IRR is greater than 60% BFIT.  BFIT: Profit is the amount of revenue remaining after payment of royalty, operating costs, investments, and taxes, including income taxes. A distinction is often made between before-income tax (BFIT) profit and after-income tax (AFIT) profit for analysis purposes.

Leucistic Bald Eagle Spotted In Forest Outside Flagstaff, AZ -- December 21, 2014

We arrived safe and sound. We took a most leisurely trip from DFW metroplex (Texas) to southern California, actually staying in motels along the way, something I wouldn't do if traveling alone. This really is an incredible country. I never get tired of driving cross country.

If we didn't have the granddaughters we would take a meandering, unplanned trip across the states visiting friends. My wife does not know this yet, but I am seriously thinking of returning to Dallas via Las Vegas, then Denver, then south to Texas. It would add 400 miles to the return trip, 1800 miles vs 1450 miles. Hmmm.....

My wife loves "The Big Bang Theory" so part of the way we played a variation of Sheldon's "Periodic Table, Name The Element Game." In our game, we picked a category, such as movie actors. My wife went first: George Clooney.  The letter before "C" ( the first letter of the last name) is "B." So I said Brad Pitt (the first letter of the first name). Then she said Oscar de la Rente ("O" being the letter before "P"). Even though Oscar was a fashion designer to the stars and not an actor I let her use that name. Then I "Q" -- the letter before "R" and I said Quentin Tarantino. And then we quit. We didn't know if the last name should have been "de" or "la" or "Rente."

We took a 3.77 mile walk to the local grocery story to buy groceries this morning. Everything is almost exactly 50% higher here than in Texas. One bolillo in Texas costs 25 cents; here 33 cents. Yoplait yogurt, 10 for $7 here; in Texas, 10 for $6.00. A "crown" of fresh broccoli is $1.79 / lb here; 77 cents/pound in Texas. The list could go on, but one gets the point.

Remember: This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

One of the nice things expensive motels along Route 66 do for visitors is provide them free copies of local newspapers and the USA Today. I didn't have a chance to read the newspaper while driving (had I been alone, I would have, but my wife gets really mad when I read while driving).

I see the front page of the weekend edition of USA Today says the Fed was responsible for this last spectacular trading week of the year: "Fed to the Rescue" --
The Dow Jones industrial average's 421-point gain Thursday was its best single-day jump in three years. The Fed's message Wednesday that it's in no rush to raise rates fueled the two-day rally, boosting the Dow 709 points it biggest two-day gain since 2008. "The mini-correction is over," said a really, really smart person. 
In the business section of the same USA Today there was an article accompanying the front page story: Five Things Lifting The Dow Skyward --
  • friendly Fed
  • friendly Fed (yes, repeated)
  • cheap oil (investors rethinking their initial negative reaction
  • stock inventory (if I remember, I might post something on this)
  • a big reverse of "bearish" bets
Number 4, "stock inventory" was interesting: a really smart analyst "says the main stock market driver is simply 'supply and demand. In the first three days of this week, there has been more than $30 billion in take-overs of public companies and stock buybacks, so there is less stock for sale on the open market."


I see both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are still in favor of giving their national natural resource away; spokesmen in both countries said there was not reason to cut production.

I assume there's a corresponding story out there that says China and Japan are sending "thank you" notes and holiday greetings to OPEC. Mr Putin's Christmas is probably not going so well.

Harold Hamm suggests the number of active rigs in North Dakota could go as low as 90. About half where they are now.

Active Rigs181192189196160

I have of lot of e-mail to go through and I will eventually get to all of it. I can't decide how the blog should evolve or change going into the New Year. I have been having so much fun looking at the MRO re-fracked wells I've delayed getting back to other subjects.

I'm still amazed with all the non-coverage about that proposed new casino west of Williston. The source said there would a ceremonial ground-breaking October 24, 2014, but I don't recall any photograph to capture the moment. The casino will be on native American ground that I don't think many kew existed in that location. It would be ironic if Caterpillar unearthed huge native American ceremonial burial grounds in that exact location. Something tells me it would cause a minor stir, but once a plaque was laid, the Caterpillar would get back to work.

Oh, by the way, that reminds me: we saw a beautiful bald eagle soaring and then landing on top of a tree in the Flagstaff, Arizona, area. We were on I-40 heading out of town when I saw a huge bird with white wing tips; I followed it and fortunately it perched at the top of a tree to the right of us. And it was clearly a bald eagle. I was not aware that bald eagles had white wing tips, but again, google comes to the rescue. Look at this, a similar eagle in Alaska, this is really, really cool:
A leucistic bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) with white wing tips and white talons flies along the Chilkoot River in the Chilkoot Lake State Recreational Site near Haines, Alaska. The white wing tips and talons are caused by a leucistic condition -- a condition of reduced pigmentation resulting in white patches.

These patches of white can occur while the rest of the animal is colored normal. Unlike albinism, the eye color is normal.

The eagle has been spotted on both the Chilkoot and Chilkat Rivers for several years.
I was absolutely unaware of any such thing. Now, if only this leucistic bald eagle will steer clear of wind turbines. Wow, what a travesty, 38 golden eagles killed by wind turbines in two Wyoming counties.