Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Misunderstanding Natural Gas Storage -- September 11, 2019

This was sent to me by a reader. I am posting it for other readers.

I can find 50 articles agreeing with the premise of this article, and 50 articles arguing against the premise of this article.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

For the record, I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken; bullish on oil and gas; and, agree with the premise of the article at the link.

City EV Efforts "Could" Threaten The Grid -- September 11, 2019

From "energynews":

Wow, how many times has this been said on the blog. No one has thought this [EV] story through.

Forget the energy source: coal, natural gas, wind, solar. That's not the problem. We have more energy than we could ever use.

The problem: transmission.

  • electric lines: high voltage, long distance; and "last mile"
  • transformers: lots and lots and lots of them
Fact: it only takes a few (2?) EVs in any typical 14-house neighborhood to require re-vamping the entire neighborhood grid (transformers, transmission lines).

As far back as 2014, even the comic artists "got it":

Gasoline Demand -- September 11, 2019

Gasoline demand: full table. In August, 2017: 302,303 bbls. Over 30 days = 9,752 bpd.

This past month, look at this:

Perhaps a reader will find a data point when the US averaged 10 million bbls of gasoline/day for a week but I haven't found it yet, but I'm still looking. But look how close we got a couple of weeks ago: 9.9 million bpd.

Gasoline production: "we've" hit 10.6 million bpd many times over the past several years, so the next gasoline production will be 11 million bpd, which should happen sooner than later.

The big question: will we hit 10 million bpd demand before the year is out?

"Recession Is Right Around The Corner" -- September 11, 2019

US equity market surges.
  • Dow up almost 230 points; closes above 27,000 (again).
  • S & P hits 3,000 (again).
  • Nasdaq extends above 8,150.
But, but, but ....
  • Bernie: resist!
  • Buttigieg: change course!
  • Beto: re-set!
  • Biden: what just happened? We need to get back to "normal."
One can't have it both ways:
  • rule of thumb: stock market "looks out" about six months
  • with the market surging as it is now, it's hard to buy into an argument "we" are facing a recession between now and March, 2019 -- though we will hear a lot about "October" is the worse month for the stock market
  • March, 2020. Eight months until the election. You really think Trump/GOP will let economy move into recession? Sure, it could happen.
  • Russia, Russia, Russia. Then, recession, recession, recession. Next: 
Futures, 8:38 p.m. CT, September 11, 2019: Dow up another 149 points. XLNX moving in pre-market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Gasoline demand weekly data pending.

US Supreme Court sides with President Trump. Only two dissents: RBG and Sotomayor.

Wow, what a day.

  • AAPL: up almost $7/share by the close; up another $1.30 after hours; after hours, trading at $225
  • EW: unchanged at $218
  • SRE: up 1% to $143, near 52-week high
  • OKE: at $74; within pennies of a 52-week high
  • T: an old stodgy widow's stock up 3% today 
  • AMGN: after surging this past week, drops back below $200
  • UNP: well off its 52-week high but showing strength

Nine Point Energy Reports Little Muddy Wells In Williston Oil Field -- September 11, 2019

Wow, for "mom-and-pop" mineral owners, the Bakken wells just seem to be getting better and better.

Now, the Nine Point Energy Little Muddy wells in Williston oil field are being reported:
  • 35985, 1,69, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 6H, Williston, t6/19; cum 51K over 61 days;
  • 35986, 1,158, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 7H, Williston, t6/19; cum 48K over 58 days;
  • 35987, 696, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 8H, Williston, t6/19; cum 31K over 31 days;
Huge wells. 

T. Boone PIckens Dead At 91 -- September 11, 2019

Two New Permits; Huge Jump In Production -- September 11, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6466563769

Ten permits renewed:
  • Crescent Point Energy (5): two CPEUSC Narcisse and three CPEUSC Austin permits, all in Williams County
  • MRO (3): a Walcel USA permit, a Ranum USA permit, and a Prior USA permit, all in Mountrail County
  • Slawson: an Armada Federal permit in Mountrail County
  • Whiting: a Drew TTT permit in Mountrail County
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
  • 32354, 174, CLR, Hereford Federal 8-20H2, this well was spud March 20, 2016 (almost 3.5 years ago); TD date was April 6, 2016 (about 3.5 years ago); 2nd bench Three Forks; from the well file at the NDIC site:
Operations began on March 20, 2016; two trips, I believe; KOP was reached on the morning of March 26, 2016; casing/cemented on March 27th; drilled out the shoe on afternoon of March 28th; tripped the morning of April 2nd; resumed drilling the following morning; tripped again; began drilling again late morning April 3rd; on the morning of April 4th, the directional sensor again failed, and tripped again; drilling resumed on the morning of April 5th; TD without further ado on afternoon of April 6th. So, three days for the vertical; about a day for the curve; about six days to drill the horizontal with two trips, each delaying completion by a full day or so; rare flares, from 1' to 5', brief in duration; 98% of the footage in the delineated target zone (remember, this was the second bench, Three Forks; "this was was somewhat unique, in that we had fair control from the parallel Buelingo 1-20H well to the east of us for the first section, but thereafter we had little data to confirm the structure interpretation ahead of us. Careful attention was paid to the gamma curve and other data, in order to successfully guide the well to TD in zone and without encountering the internal 1 or 2 shale. These efforsts were successful, with only one brief section out of zone. This well will provide a better template for th other eight wells of the pad. It was very important, with the length of the well, to maintain a smooth well bore, in order to not interfere with sliding as we proceeded into the third section. This was also achieved, and the well reached TD without any significant down-hole interferences.

Frack data not yet posted at the NDIC site. According to FracFocus, this well was fracked 3/28/17 - 4/15/17; a huge frack with 12.6 million gallons of water; 88.4% water by mass.
Name changes, of note: two XTO HUB Muller wells were renamed "Muller" wells, dropping the HBU (#36830 and #36839).

Two new permits, #36950 - #36951, inclusive.
  • Operator: Petro-Hunt
  • Field: Charlson (McKenzie County)
  • Comments
    • Petro-Hunt has permits for a 2-well USA pad in section 8-153-95, Charlson oil field.
Note this well;
  • 18111, Thompson wells, Petro-Hunt; huge jump; 462K 9/18; in the neighborhood of the new Charlson permits;

The Borrud Wells North Of Williston Starting To Be Posted -- September 11, 2019

A huge thank you to a reader alerting me to these wells. 

People will disagree with me but I've never considered the Tyrone oil field, just north of Williston, as a great field. But the field is starting to report some incredibly huge wells. This leads me back to my discussion about "sweet spots" in the Bakken. Over-emphasized.

Perhaps a better way of saying this: not so much as "over-emphasized," but perhaps we need a new discussion on "sweet spots."

Case study:
  • 29539, 4,635, Bruin/HRC, Borrud 156-101-1B-12-2H, Tyrone, t7/19; cum 50K over 25 days. I.N.C.R.E.D.I.B.L.E. The cumulative in less than 30 days is incredibly, but look at that IP: 4,635.
This is simply huge, regardless of where it is in the Bakken. But this is in a Tier 2 field, perhaps. I don't know. Maybe Tier 1, but certainly not a great Tier 1 and certainly during the boom it would not have been considered a Tier 1.

But look at that IP and that 25-day cum. Incredible. 

The Borrud wells are tracked here

#29539 was a middle Bakken well: fracked; using 16 million lbs sand over 60 stages.

I would write more but suffice it to say: during summers (or at least one summer) in the late 60s, while in high school David K. and I picked rocks on the  Borrud farm. A backbreaking miserable job.  

Weekly Oil Data -- September 11, 2019

XOM: more evidence Exxon's strategic vision changing --- could sell $1 billion GoM assets to Spanish firm.

API: large draw yesterday -- 7.227 million bbls vs expectations of 2.6 million bbls.

Weekly EIA data: link here. Huge.
  • US crude oil inventories down 6.9 million bbls; this comes on the heels of other huge draws recently.
  • US crude oil inventories stand at 416.1 million bbls, or about 2% below the five year average
  • refineries operating at 95.1% capacity; about in the middle range for what to expect
  • total product supplies over the four-week period averaged 21.6 million bbls per day, up 0.4% from same period last year
  • we'll get gasoline demand chart later today; stay tuned
Week Ending
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
Week 1
November 28, 2018
Week 2
December 6, 2018
Week 3
December 12, 2018
Week 4
December 19, 2018
Week 5
December 28, 2018
Week 6
January 4, 2019
Week 7
January 9, 2019
Week 8
January 16, 2019
Week 9
January 24, 2019
Week 10
January 31, 2019
Week 11
February 6, 2019
Week 12
February 13, 2019
Week 13
February 21, 2019
Week 14
February 27, 2019
Week 15
March 6, 2019
Week 16
March 13, 2019
Week 17
March 20, 2019
Week 18
March 27, 2019
Week 19
April 3, 2019
Week 20
April 10, 2019
Week 21
April 17, 2019
Week 22
April 24, 2019
Week 23
May 1, 2019
Week 24
May 8, 2019
Week 25
May 15, 2019
Week 26
May 22, 2019
Week 27
May 30, 2019
Week 28
June 5, 2019
Week 29
June 12, 2019
Week 30
June 19, 2019
Week 31
June 26, 2019
Week 32
July 3, 2019
Week 33
July 10, 2019
Week 34
July 17, 2019
Week 35
July 24, 2019
Week 36
July 31, 2019
Week 37
August 7, 2019
Week 38
August 14, 2019
Week 29
August 21, 2019
Week 30
August 28, 2019
Week 31
September 5, 2019
Week 32
September 11, 2019