McKinsey: Natural Gas Update -- Through 2035 -- September 11, 2019

US natural gas: making America great. Link to report on McKinsey Energy Insights. Globally, new natural gas production forecast to be 635 billion cubic meters by 2035; half of that to be produced by US.

Data points:

• among fossil fuels, only natural gas will likely continuously grow in demand through 2035
• 2018: the turning point in terms of gas and LNG market dynamics
• China became the world's biggest LNG importer
• highest volume of liquefaction projects taking final investment decision (FID)
• that set the tone through 2035 -- long term projects
• Asian economies in the ascendancy, led by China; growing energy demand
• US continues to rank highly for both supply and demand
• supply side -- Europe and Asia's second-tier economies falling away
• 2018: China took overtook Japan as the world's biggest importer of gas
• China surpassed South Korea to become the second-biggest LNG importer
• through 2035, Asia (all of Asia) will account for 95% of glboal LNG demand growth until at least 2035
• demand
• global demand: will grow at about 1% annually
• Asian demand: will grow twice as fast, more than 2% annually
• production
• global production: new production to grow by at least 635 billion cubic meters
• US to supply more than half of that; 380 bcm
• Russia: 110 bcm of new production
• Africa: 110 bcm of new production
• Pipeline, note US-Mexico:

... new pipeline construction will add more than 200 bcm of cross-border gas capacity by 2025, with the U.S. and Russia retaining their major piped gas exporter positions. The firm also noted that three U.S.-Mexico projects totaling 60 bcm in capacity – the largest set of pipelines set to be completed anywhere in the world by 2025 – should conclude by the end of this year. Nord Stream 2, which will ship Russian gas to Germany (and the European Union) via the Baltic Sea, represents the second-largest set of pipeline projects and will reach a total of 55 bcm by next year

Finally, LNG and FID:

... “a record volume” of LNG projects – more than 60 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), or 20 percent of today’s market – took FID in the last 12 months and will push the LNG supply-demand balance into the late-2020s.

“Looking ahead, only one in 10 proposed LNG projects will take FID, with over 100 LNG projects totaling 1,100 mtpa of capacity competing to fill the 125 mtpa supply gap by 2023,”