Wednesday, October 17, 2018

The Midnight Note, T+65 -- Absolutely Nothing About The Bakken -- October 17, 2018


I have no idea where the Montessori class is headed with this Halloween pumpkin, but Sophia is really excited about it. Color me very, very impressed with the Montessori method. Sophia turned four years old earlier this summer. She has been in a start-up Montessori class for about four weeks, and already I've seen a difference. Montessori: STEMFA for kindergartners.


A while back I posted a note about Hopdoddy. Today, our older daughter "insisted" that the three of us go to Hopdoddy for lunch. It would be our first visit. It will not be our last. We will go again next week, same day, same time. It's incredible. The wait-staff is a bit overbearing, but the hamburgers are to die for, as they say.

My wife had the "Impossible Burger." I forget (or didn't pay attention to) what our daughter ordered. It was a vegetable burger of some sort. I had the ahi tuna. I.N.C.R.E.D.I.B.L.E. They said the tuna would be seared and served rare. Yes, it was rare, and perfect. It's hard to get non-Japanese restaurants to get ahi tuna right. My wife said she could not believe the "Impossible Burger" was completely "vegetable." No meat and the best hamburger she says she has ever had. I suppose I should have taken a taste. Maybe next time.

During the meal, one of the wait-staff came up to us and gave us a "gift-card." Our daughter was aware of it, but we weren't. It's why our daughter was so insistent we go today. It turns out that Hopdoddy, locally, was having a promotion. At the time one ordered one's meal, they would run off a duplicate receipt and a coupon. The coupon is good for the exact amount that we spent today. The meal today cost just under $48 for three. Worth every penny. And then to find out the coupon we got was worth just under $48 for our next mean there; expires one month from today. My daughter said I needed to get a mixed drink -- add to the bill for the "free" visit next week. Then she remembered: I don't drink alcohol any more.

Ahi tuna, Hopdoddy style:

Amateur photographs never do justice to restaurant meals.

 I did not order the French fries. Our older daughter is a French fry afficionado and wanted to taste them. So she got them for me. They were incredible. Yes, better than McDonald's, who up until now had set the bar.

I Will Follow Him, Peggy March

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+65 -- October 17, 2018

Boom! Amazon paying $15 / hour (or more) for 100,000 seasonal jobs. Link here. The DEMS have been clamoring for $15/hour wages and now we finally have them -- couldn't get it done under Sir Saint Obama.

Enquiring minds want to know: Bezos  / Washington Post quiet on Khashoggi murder -- apparently Bezos and Saudis have close relationship. Amazon Web Services is opening a region in the Middle East and is looking for a head of public policy for Saudi Arabia.

Slow Starbucks server -- slow internet. Glad I have a book.

Chinese Checkers Earlier This Evening

Sophia is pretty good setting up chess; she knows all the pieces and pretty much knows where to place them. Instead of calling them her "sisters," she now calls the pawns, her "babies." A lot of mothers probably called their own sons "babies" when they went off to war. Poignant. She now calls her bishops the correct name rather than the names of her own sisters. She has not shown any interest in actually learning how to play.

She is fascinated by Chinese checkers and always wants to set up the board. I did not care what color marbles went on which starting triangle. She immediately corrected me.

The Physics Page

The God Problem, Howard Bloom, c. 2016

From Albert Einstein:
How can it be that mathematics, being after all a product of human thought which is independent of experience, is so admirably appropriate to the objects of reality?
Another "God problem."

Music Is Needed -- I Feel Overwhelmed

Khashoggi? I wonder if William Francis Buckley got as much press attention at the time as Khashoggi? Just curious. I don't recall.

My Sweet Lord, George Harrison


At the US-Canadian border, answering in the affirmative to "have you ever smoked marijuana" will deny you entry into the US.

Prediction: by March 31, 2019, the US Congress will pass a bill "solving" this problem. President Trump will sign it. If the US Congress does not pass the bill, President Trump can sign a very, very simple executive order. Something tells me the 9th Circuit Court will not sue President Trump if he issues such n executive order.

Maybe he should preempt Congress and do it now. LOL.

Taxi, Harry Chapin

Wow, We Haven't Seen This In Awhile -- 70 Active Rigs In North Dakota -- October 17, 2018

Gasoline demand: ouch --

WTI: broke through the $70 floor today; closed down over 3%; down over $2/bbl; trading at $69.75.
  • strong dollar 
  • falling demand
  • Khashoggi krisis krumbling
Natural gas: continuing to melt up; up 8 cents today; that's about 2.5%; now trading at $3.320

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Investors: oil companies sell crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Just saying.

Enquiring minds want to know: Iran hasn't said a thing? Why? Remember Sherlock's hounds?

Suspicion, Terry Stafford

Boom! Amazon paying $15 / hour (or more) for 100,000 seasonal jobs. Link here. The DEMS have been clamoring for $15/hour wages and now we finally have them -- after two lost decades under Bush II and Sir Saint Obama.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs70583267190

Six new permits:
  • Operators: Oasis (4); Nine Point Energy (2)
  • Fields: Ft Buford (Williams), Squires (Williams)
  • Comments: wow, Oasis has permits for four more Bobby Jo wells in SESW 11-155-102; and, Nine Point has permits for a 2-well Heen pad in SWSE 35-153-104;
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33862, 2,131, Equinor, Gunderson 15-22 7TFH, Banks, t9/18; cum --
  • 33863, 2,805, Equinor, Gunderson 15-22 5H-R, Banks, t9/18; cum --
  • 33994, 1,633, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-1807H-8, Blue Buttes, t9/18; cum -- 
Regarding #33863, based on the geologic summary, I think the "R" means that the permit was "revised." But it is interesting: even the original permit is #5H-R. It looks like this well "replaced" #22839 located on the same pad which was dry. #22839 failed a mechanical integrity test and was plugged and abandoned. Spudded October 11, 2017, and reached total depth of 21,456, on October 23, 2017, twelve days later -- five days to get to vertical depth; two days to build the curve; and, five days to drill the lateral. To be exact, the curve was begun in the afternoon on October 14th -- wow, that means the vertical took only three days -- and the curve was landed on October 14th, late that evening, just before midnight. Wow. Less than twelve hours to build the curve. But look at this, they started the lateral on October 19th, early in the morning -- that means there was no drilling from the 14th to the 19th -- it took only four days to drill the lateral: so, three days to drill the vertical; half-a-day to build/land the curve, and four days to drill the lateral  -- 7.5 days of actual drilling. Godspeed!

Continuing, #33863: the geologist is reporting the gas units in PPM -- stating that values as high as 900,000 ppm were noted. I'll have to check this later, but I wonder if 900,000 ppm converts to 900 units. The target was 14 to 36 feet into the middle Bakken.

Trending Now In Denver

Pineapples in the local area can be had for slightly less than $1.99 each. Pumpkins at $6.99 or more -- much more expensive.

Notes to the Granddaughters

So, my dad went on a car trip to Montana recently and discovered in Denver people like to carve pineapple jack o’lanterns because they look really creepy. He gave us a pineapple over the weekend to try out.

Not wanting to mess up this endeavor, I bought a smaller, less expensive pineapple to try out first.

I discovered a few things with this prototype: (1) I will never buy canned pineapple again as the fresh stuff is amazing! And unlike pumpkin guts, we’ll actually eat the pineapple guts; (2) this was really easy to do; and, (3) it looks way creepier than a pumpkin jack o’lantern!!

The only downside is the pineapple doesn’t appear to be as hearty as the pumpkin, so it won’t last as long. Very cool idea! 

Ballantyne - Crescent Point Energy -- In North Dakota -- October 17, 2018


February 25, 2019: see comment. A reader has divisions orders confirming that Ballantyne has acquired (at least some) Crescent Point Energy assets.

Well search reveals that Crescent Point Energy has: 370 permits, including in the 32XXX series (recent permits).

 Ballantyne Oil, LLC, has 54 permits. The most recent is #29106 in Kanu oil field.

370 (Crescent Point Energy) and 54 (Ballantyne Oil) is the very same number of permits for each company as noted at the original post. 

Original Post

A reader asked about the relationship between "Ballantyne" and "Crescent Point Energy," whether one company had sold its interests in Bottineau County to the other.

I replied that I had lost the bubble on that. Neither the blog nor the internet in general offers much help.

My advice: visit the NDIC "well search" site and look at the permits.

Note: in a note based on a huge database search, there are likely to be typographical and factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source, perhaps starting with the linked site.

Three companies to "search."
  • Ballantyne
  • Ballantyne Oil, LLC
  • Crescent Point Energy US Corp
  • Ballantyne:
    • 27 permits
    • most recent permit: #17321, dry, 7/23/2008
  • Ballantyne Oil, LLC:
    • 54 permits
    • 4 SWD permits
    • 30xxx permits: 0
    • 20xxx permits: 11
    • 19xxx permits: 5 
    • 18xxx permits: 1
    • Glenburn field: 13
    • Southwest Landa: 8
    • North Souris: 3
  • Crescent Point Energy US Corp
    • 370 permits
    • 7 SWD permits
    • 30xxx permits: 157
    • 20xxx permits: 171
    • 19xxx permits: 19
    • major fields: Dublin, Ellisville, Little Muddy, Lone Tree Lake, Marmon, North Souris, Souris, West Ambrose, Winner

3Q18 GDP Forecast Slips To 3.9 From 4.0 -- October 17, 2018

Link here.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 3.9 percent on October 17, down from 4.0 percent on October 15.
On October 16, the nowcast of third-quarter real government expenditures growth fell from 2.1 percent to 1.3 percent after the U.S. Department of the Treasury and its Bureau of the Fiscal Service released the Monthly Treasury Statement during the afternoon of the previous day.
Next release, October 25, 2018.

Can't Manage A Simple Small-State Campaign -- October 17, 2018 -- Oversen: I Am Sparticus

Heitkamp fires campaign staffer.

Wow, wow, and wow:
Kylie Oversen, former head of the Democratic Party in North Dakota and current candidate for state tax commissioner, told Forum News Service Wednesday that she is clear of any wrongdoing with regards to a campaign ad from Sen. Heidi Heitkamp that misused women’s names as victims of sexual assault.
Oversen, who was one of the 127 victims named in the newspaper ad, said that — while she was involved in the name-gathering process for the ad — she is not in any way involved with the Heitkamp campaign.
Oversen left her position as chair of the Dem-NPL in June to focus on her campaign for state tax commissioner.
Though she didn’t mention exactly how many, Oversen said that she did provide the Heitkamp campaign with multiple sexual assault victims for the purpose of the ad.
“Most people I shared were people I knew personally,” Oversen said.
Lots of 'splainin' to do. Like where did she get the list? At least we know where to start.

I Hear She's On Another Speaking Tour ... With Her Husband, This Time
Two For The Price Of One

From April 19, 2105:

The Prices At Your Local Gasoline Stations Will Be Changed By Fairies On Flying Pigs Today -- October 17, 2018; US Gasoline Inventories Are 7% Over Five-Year Average; WTI Plummets On Report

Link here to EIA's weekly petroleum report.
  • US crude oil inventories: increased by 6.5 million bbls; now at 416.4 million bbls, well above my threshold of 400 million bbls; all things being equal, WTI should trend toward $70 -- let's see what WTI is doing -- and there it is, down over 2.6% -- just holding barely above $70 at $70.02; US crude oil inventories are 2% above the five-year average for this time of the year
  • refineries continue to operate well below capacity; at 88.8%; about the same -- if not exactly the same -- as last week
  • gasoline production increased last week; slightly above the 10 million bbl baseline
  • distillate fuel production decreased last week; slightly below the 5 million bbl baseline
  • imports seem to be trending up over the past several weeks; if so, it suggests the US needs more of the "right kind" of oil
  • total gasoline reserves -- going into to the slow driving season -- inventories are up a whopping 7% over the five-year average; we should see local gasoline prices plummeting -- and the prices on the signs will be changed by fairies on flying pigs today -- LOL 
  • everything else: background noise
WTI is holding. Back to $70.16 now that the initial shock has worn off.


I am well into Howard Bloom's The God Problem. I do not know where he is headed. I do know the book is on metaphysics written by a brilliant scientist.

At page 291 the book is becoming increasingly interesting.

Hans Adolf Eduard Driesch, German, born in 1867, was an embryologist who turned the discipline into a philosophy (his personal philosophy, of course).
Driesch fell that this big-picture fixation, this goal-directedness, was not limited to cells. "The universe is an organism or rather it is the one organism," he concluded in 1914 after twenty-five years of work in embryology. And "in evolution all natural becoming is like one great embryology."

Yes, to Driesch even the universe, in some strange way, seemed to know where it was going. It seemed to sense the form toward which it was aiming.

So did human history. History, said Driesch, is like phylogeny -- like the evolutionary process that produces new species -- like the process of biological evolution. and history unfolds in a seemingly purposeful way. History, says Driesch, seems driven by "unifying causality," by an overarching form that aches to be. Driven be an implicit pattern, a big picture, that we have not as yet learned to see.

Driven by entelechy.
I did not expect that. Bloom has two choices. Take Dreisch out or expand and support. Richard Dawkins would certainly not entertain Dreisch.

The Eye

From the same book, page 293:
For example, the pattern of the eye will do almost anything to be. It will take so many routes to becoming that some experts claim it has evolved separately, yes, on its own, dozens of times in radically different forms and in radically different kinds of life.

The eye "wants" to be is as many creatures as possible. And it succeeds. Ninety-five percent of the species on this planet have eyes.

Take another example from a radically different realm. The recruitment strategy of a star is so enthusiastic about becoming that it greedily motivates ten billion trillion of its progeny, stars, to yank together raw material, to tear apart the atoms at their hearts, and to blaze with light. The result? The recruitment strategy of the star deliriously dots the skies.

New Hampshire And Drilling Off-Shore -- October 17, 2018

Gulf of Mexico: in Argus today. Note how closely the oil sector holds things to their chests, as they say.
President Donald Trump's administration has reduced royalty rates for an existing offshore oil and gas lease as it tries to spur more production in the Gulf of Mexico.
The administration this summer quietly cut royalty rates to 8.07 percent from 18.75 percent for a shallow-water well off Louisiana being proposed by independent driller Topco Offshore. It marks the first time the US has approved what is known as "special case" royalty relief for an offshore project in the past decade.
"The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) has reviewed Topco's application and concluded that the project is uneconomic without royalty relief," Gulf regional director Lars Herbst said in a 14 June letter approving royalty relief.
Argus obtained the letter this week under the Freedom of Information Act.
Offshore operators are seeking similar treatment on other leases. The royalty relief mechanism offers an avenue to support offshore development after US interior secretary Ryan Zinke earlier this year rejected calls by industry to cut royalty rates on new leases to 12.5pc, down from the existing rate of 18.75pc for most leases.
Offshore operators say existing royalty rates are hindering development, particularly as the industry competes for investment dollars against shale resources and offshore development abroad. The US Gulf as of last week had only 22 active drilling rigs, according to Baker Hughes data. That is two more than last year but just a third of the peak number of active rigs in 2014, when crude prices exceeded $100/bl.
Generally speaking, royalty rates in North Dakota run between 12 percent and 20% with 18.75% as a very common number, at least based on what I heard while growing up in Williston. If accurate, that royalty rate of 8% is incredibly low. One wonders how "they" came to the "0.07" add-on. Perhaps that covers administrative costs of filling out federal bureaucratic paperwork. LOL.

Metaphors, "Fake News", and New Hampshire

In "fake news" today, a headline story is that the US will likely not press forward on demands that New Hampshire allow off-shore drilling. LOL.

I'm reading a great, great book on metaphors and "recruitment" issues: The God Problem, Howard Bloom, c. 2016. It explains a lot, especially the power of metaphor. And that's all "off-shore drilling and New Hampshire" is -- a metaphor. And a fund-raising issue for the political parties.

But the great thing about these "fake stories" -- it makes a very difficult book like The God Problem more interesting, more timely, and more compelling.

In addition, it gives one a chance to look at history, US history in this case. Deep in the recesses of my mind, I vaguely remember stories how New Hampshire ended up with a coastline (and I also remember vaguely how the state of Maine came to be) -- and it is fortunate we have some really little states that came out of the 13 colonies -- it guarantees that North Dakota will always have two US senators -- just like California, and Texas. LOL. But I digress.

The New Hampshire seacoast -- a short coast with a long story, Yankee, July 8, 2016.
New Hampshire’s coast is only 13 miles long, the shortest of all 23 states bordering an ocean. Even if you toss in the Isles of Shoals, a group of islands about 8 miles off the Rye shore, half of which belong to New Hampshire, their combined 5 miles of oceanfront boosts New Hampshire’s lump sum only to 18 miles—a drop in the bucket compared with Maine’s 228 miles, Massa-chusetts’ 192 miles, or even Rhode Island’s 40. (And we’re talking just “general coastline” here. If you take these states’ many islands, bays, and so on into account, their “tidal shorelines” encompass hundreds more miles.) Yet, lest you imagine New Hampshire’s petite landfall as one contiguous sandy swath, I can attest that it’s not.
My hunch is that before it's all over, the Native Americans will claim that coastline as their own, and someday they will get it back, along with the sacred burial grounds and sacred beaches:
Native Americans called this shoreline region “Winnicunnet,” meaning, “beautiful place of pines.” According to Dow, this coast was “an unbroken wilderness trodden only by savages” who “lay basking in the sun upon the sands, or launched their frail canoes and shot out fearlessly over the billows.” In 1974, archaeologists from the University of New Hampshire excavated a mile or so inland along the Hampton River and found bones, shells, tools, stone weapons, and clay pots—evidence that led them to surmise that this coast has been inhabited for at least 4,000 years.
That article goes on and on and on ... and doesn't explain how a small, otherwise inconsequential colony got that coast line.

Let's press on.

This article explains it as well as any. Blame it on the English. Makes sense. Nothing to see here. 


Commentary: Direction Of The Blog -- October 17, 2018

I started the blog in 2007, deleted it in 2009, and started over that same year.

I started the blog to better understand the Bakken. For some reason I had the feeling that the Bakken was going to be "different" than previous oil boom and bust stories. I knew nothing about "oil," and my intention was to simply track the Bakken on Microsoft Word documents and Xcel spreadsheets, but about the very same time, the USAF required that I learn how to set up a website.

So, there you have it.

Along with the Bakken there were a number of other energy stories and non-energy stories that interested me from the stand point understanding the issue. I posted on political issues because such issues are important to put things into perspective. I follow the US equity market because "following the money" often explains things that otherwise don't make sense.

I assume the blog will not change much but there is a possibility that I will blog less on some energy stories and will blog less on some non-energy stories. I can't think of anything "new" about which I would like to blog.

So, at 9:09 a.m., October 17, 2018, this is where I stand with regard to the blog:
  • hopefully my emphasis on the Bakken does not change; I've met my objectives for starting the blog in the first place; my reasons for continuing the blog have changed; it's less about understanding the Bakken and more about simply chronicling an incredible story; the Bakken never ceases to amaze me; I hope I live long enough to see Bakken 3.0;
  • other than the Permian, the other shale plays, including the Eagle Ford, interest me not, but I will update periodically if the news is important enough
  • global warming: it's a political issue and pretty much no longer interests me; my blogging on global warming will probably decrease over time
  • politics: hard to say where I will go with this; Trump has proved that America can be great again; we've seen how fast a dynamic country like American can turn under the right leadership; whether the general public accepts that and re-elects him (if he runs again) is "their" problem; I've lost interest; following the Clintons and the Trump story has taught me a lot about parsing sentences and learning the definition of one-syllable words
  • in the energy sector what interests me most is the yawning and incredibly increasing gap between energy-rich and energy-poor countries. I think Europe is in a world of "hurt," and it will be interesting to follow that story
  • Russia doesn't interest me except as it affects Europe
  • Greece absolutely, positively does not interest me
  • Saudi Arabia is absolutely fascinating; the rest of the Mideast, yawn
  • global warming: it's a political issue and pretty much no longer interests me; my blogging on global warming will probably decrease even more over time; oh, I already said that
  • future of wind energy: depends 100% on politics; no longer an economic or science issue; I get it; interests me not; ditto, solar, but even more so; 
  • EVs: fascinating; will follow simply to see how this plays out; won't affect me; will affect my granddaughters
  • Apple: generally only interested during earnings season; company's technology is evolutionary, no longer revolutionary, but I hope that changes
  • Bakken 3.0: I've been struggling to "define" Bakken 3.0 -- but it finally hit me -- perhaps it was a note from a reader last night -- Bakken 3.0 will begin with the new USGS Bakken survey (which is way overdue)
  • notes to the granddaughters; travelogues; books; social media; US "culture" -- that's what I really love to write about -- even more than the Bakken -- but I've found that "personal" blogs are enjoyed by generally only one person: the writer
It's now 9:29 a.m., October 17, 2018: that's where I am.

More later, perhaps.

Demes and memes.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+ 65 -- October 17, 2018

A page from the Feinstein playbook. The October surprise. Let's see -- I assume "operatives" are debating best day to release the report. On a Friday before/after news cycle so it will get maximum play on Sunday morning talk shows? Monday morning before election in November? On a Saturday?

I didn't read the story (and no plans to do so) but has President Trump submitted his answers to Mueller's questions yet? I assume the White House would delay getting the answers to Mueller until well after the election unless ...

California politics: two Democrats are vying for the US Senate in the 2018 midterms. Under the new California "rules," the two highest vote-getters in the primary will square off in the general election, regardless of party. And as expected, two Democrats will square off this year. The GOP is supporting Feinstein -- her opponent is "much worse" in the eyes of some. But worse, it's proven that once elected to the US Senate, it's pretty much a life-time appointment unless you really screw up. Feinstein's opponent: 51 years old. Feinstein: 85 years old. You do the math. Either Republican John Cox or Democrat Gavin Newsom will be appointing a new US Senator sometime in the next six years. Gavin Newsom will win; former mayor of San Francisco. Same city where Diane Feinstein was born and raised.

Market: just before the market opens, Dow (irrelevant) futures down 125 points and WTI trending down (again).
The Book Page

The God Problem, Howard Bloom, c. 2016.

Again, the writing is a bit laborious. I had to skim through about a hundred pages, but still following the main themes. Then, highly rewarded. The story of Napoleon invading Egypt in 1799; the Rosetta stone, Bouchard the engineer who discovered the stone, and Thomas Young who deciphered the Rosetta stone.

Wow, skim through wiki's entry on Thomas Young. The Rosetta Stone was just a small piece of his life.

The Rosetta Stone, three texts in three different writing systems, three different symbol sets --
  • Egyptian hieroglyphs;
  • demotic: the shorthand script, the alphabet of demes, the writing system of the common people; yet another unknown Egyptian symbol system; and,
  • Greek, a well-known language
Thomas Young: English, near where Shakespeare had lived, south of the River Avon; known as "The Phenomenon"; he learned a dozen languages including European languages; eight Middle Eastern languages (Hebrew, Chaldean, Syriac, Samaritan, Arabic, Persian, Turkish, and Amharic).

From the book:
After fifteen years of work, Young cracked the code of the Egyptian demotic script (the Rosetta Stone), the writing system of Eygpt's commoners.
Thomas Young's fame for translating languages became so great that he was asked to write the article on languages in the ultimate reference book, a book series that was by then verging on fifty years old, the Encylopedia Britannia. Young did write that definitive article. 
And in the process, he compared the grammar and vocabulary of over four hundred languages
So Young was very aware of the power of translation. Very aware of the power of isomorphic symbol sets.
But Young's biggest contribution to science had to do with waves. I'll stop here. It just gets better and better.

Jobs And Wage Growth -- Making America Great Again -- October 17, 2018

One has to ask the question again: what the heck were Bush II and Sir Saint Obama doing for sixteen years?

First, re-posting this graphic.

Now, today, this from Reuters:

MRO Reports Another Huge Well -- October 17, 2018

See this link.
  • 32970, 4,313, MRO, Loren USA 13-23TFH, Antelope, cum 35K after 13 days; extrapolates to 82K over 30 days; 1600-acre drilling unit; t8/18; cum 243K 2/19;
Production profile update:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Re-Posting: This MRO Well Extrapolates To 107K Bbls Crude Oil Over 30 Days -- October 17, 2018


March 9, 2019: I could have picked any well in this group to highlight. They are incredible. Production data for #34484, Yellowface:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Original Post

I am completely blown away by this well.  I am re-posting the original note with minor edits and updates.

In addition to everything else, note that it is a Three Forks upper bench well. Years ago, Lynn Helms famously said that the Three Forks was likely to be better than the middle Bakken on a well-to-well comparison. For newbies: that would be comparing a TF with a MB drilled from the same pad, using optimized completion strategies on both.

Also, note: the drilling unit has eleven horizontal wells; room for many more.

For newbies: when the boom began, folks were drilling wells anticipating an EUR of 375,000 bbls.

The geologist's report and the fracking data is yet to be scanned in at the NDIC site.

The spacing unit: 1600 acres according to the permit. S23 &24T151 R94 - W/2 19T151 R93;

Note the IP: 8,887. Record IPs, FAQ 9 at this post.

  • crude oil: extrapolates to 107K over 30 days
  • natural gas: extrapolates to  17K boe over 30 days
  • total boe extrapolates to 124K over 30 days
NDIC File No: 32972     API No: 33-053-07751-00-00     CTB No: 219446
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 8/29/2018     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NESE 22-151-94     Footages: 1676 FSL 749 FEL     Latitude: 47.881082     Longitude: -102.688255
Current Well Name: LAMARR USA 13-23TFH
Elevation(s): 2193 KB   2166 GR   2179 GL     Total Depth: 23740     Field: REUNION BAY
Spud Date(s):  11/16/2017
Casing String(s):  9.625" 2042'   7" 11164'  
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11266-23603     Comp: 8/29/2018     Status: F     Date: 8/31/2018     Spacing: ICO
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 17765     Cum MCF Gas: 16877     Cum Water: 10005
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 8/31/2018     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 8887     IP MCF: 10628     IP Water: 5541
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Well file:
  • geologic report: not yet scanned in
  • fracking report: not yet scanned in
FracFocus: 33-053-07751
  • fracked 6/25/2018 - 7/9/2018
  • 10.8 million gallons of water (typical amount seen in Bakken 2.5); 
  • water: 88.6% by mass
  • sand: 11% by mass
Other posts:
Wells in graphics below:
  • 33980, 6,113, MRO, Michelle USA 14-14TFH, t10/18; cum 144K 1/19;
  • 33981, 5,386, MRO, Phyllis USA 11-23H, t11/18; cum 128K 1/19;
  • 33982, 6,325, MRO, Clara USA 11-23TFH-2B, t10/18; cum 184K 1/19;
  • 21172, 5,067, MRO, TAT USA 12-23H, t11/18; cum 142K 1/19;

  • 32975, 9,166, MRO, Jerome USA 12-23TFH, t9/18; cum 265K 1/19; only 1 day in 1/19;
  • 32974, dry, MRO, Jorgenson USA 12-23H,
  • 32973, 9,061, MRO, Joshua USA 13-23TFH-2B, t9/18; cum 223K 1/19;

  • 19446, 24 (no typo), MRO, TAT USA 13-23H, Reunion Bay, 22 stages; 3.2 million lbs;, t2/11; cum 91K 8/18; was off line for the past year (about 11 months); was on line for 12 days in 8/18; it took 105 hours to drill the vertical (in 2018, they can drill these verticals in 55 hours); the lateral was drilled in 186 hours (in 2018, they can drill these laterals in 55 hours); the report did not say how long it took to build the curve (assume about 5 days); gas shows reached 3,000 units in some areas, but generally weak throughout most of the lateral; the lateral was 95% within the zone and 100% within the middle Bakken. Sporadic activity; after months of no production, 6 bbls on one day in 1/19;

  • 34484, IA/6,504, MRO, Yellowface USA 13-23H, t9/18; cum 163K 1/19; off line as of 12/18:
  • 32972, see above;
  • 32971, see this post;
  • 32970, 4,313, MRO, Loren USA 13-23TFH, Antelope, t8/18; cum 205K 1/19; geologist's report and frack data not yet posted over at NDIC; 1600-acre drilling unit;

The graphics:

Is The Niobrara Really The Next Big Thing? -- RBN Energy -- October 17, 2018

Cruz vs O'Rourke: no knockout punch.

WTI: confounding analysts. Still trending down.

Posting again: that huge MRO well that was reported yesterday.

Earnings: KMI reports after market close today.

LNG demand, globally: will post strong growth to 2027, outperforming the wider energy complex -- one would assume "wider" energy complex includes renewable energy (but probably not). Why? emerging Asia (China).

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today --
  • 34685, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Yellowwolf 31X-10C,  Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 34217, SI/NC, Hess, RS-Howell-LW-156-91-1107H-4, Ross, no production data, 
Active rigs:

Active Rigs69583267190

RBN Energy: is the Niobrar really the next big thing?
Crude oil production in the Rockies’ Niobrara region is up by more than 50% since the beginning of last year, spurred on by higher oil prices, ample oil pipeline takeaway capacity, and other positive factors. Natural gas and NGL production in the Niobrara — which includes both the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin and the Powder River Basin (PRB) — has been rising too, to the point that there’s a scramble on to develop new gathering systems, gas processing plants as well as gas and NGL pipeline capacity. A number of exploration and production companies are upbeat about the region’s prospects; so are some midstreamers. But there’s a dark cloud on the horizon — at least in Colorado, where voters will decide in a few weeks whether to significantly restrict where new wells can be drilled. Is the Niobrara poised for continued growth or not? Today, we kick off a new series on Rockies production, infrastructure and prospects.