Hypocrisy Is Spelled H-Y-P-O-C-R-I-S-Y -- December 23, 2017

Updates

December 26, 2017: China's natural gas consumption soars. From oilprice.com.

Chinese natural gas consumption surged through the first 11 months of 2017, up 19 percent year-on-year.

China is the third largest consumer of natural gas in the world, behind the U.S. and Russia, and is expected to show the strongest demand growth over the coming decades—propelling it to second place by 2040.

As the nation's industrial and residential sectors pivot away from coal (think: smog), natural gas demand is going through the roof, with domestic Chinese LNG prices reaching a six-year high in recent weeks.

One data point that highlights these tightening fundamentals is how CNOOC just rented a convoy of 100 trucks to transport LNG thousands of kilometers to northern regions in China to fill supply gaps.

Driven by this recent rampant rise, China is now the second-largest importer of LNG globally. Spiking demand has lifted Northeast Asian spot LNG prices above $10/MMBtu.

Natural gas consumption: US, Russia, China, and then India, I suppose. That tells met that India is using a lot of coal (as is China, of course).

Original Post

North Texas. Yesterday was cold, windy, rainy -- it completely reminded me of southern Scotland in winter. We were told to expect more of the same today.

It was a bit cool taking Sophia to gymnastics and then swimming this morning, but when we left the education and training center about noon, it was a beautiful day: bright sunshine, no wind, and fairly warm.

Now (about 4:00 p.m.CT) it's short-sleeve weather and not a cloud in the sky. Our older granddaughter says our e-mail will be slower today since "everything is now in the cloud," and THE cloud is nowhere to be seen today. Yesterday, with all the clouds, she said, our e-mail moved very, very quickly.

Speaking of which, I'm told that iPhones use slightly more power on nights when there are full moons. To protect the iPhones, Apple will throttle back the processing time of older iPhones to conserve battery power when the moon is full. Apple says that most people won't notice it but if they do it will be rare, usually only once in a blue moon, or 1.16699016 x 10-8 hertz.

I assume Apple is making the announcement to fend off class-action lawsuits.

Whatever.

All I know is it's great bicycling weather and that's what I'm doing -- but stopping now for a Coke and a bit  of blogging.

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ISO Watch (Or Is It ISO-Ouch?

ISO New England: spot price for electricity surged to almost $250/MWh earlier this morning and $150 this afternoon, but is now (6:34 p.m. ET) down to about $50/MWH. How's that renewable energy working out?

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Global Warming

Global warming. Both China and the UK are experiencing incredibly cold winters. I mentioned China's winter a few weeks ago and now I'm hearing about the weather in the UK. We've talked about this many times over the years. If I find the old posts, I will link them but I'm not going to go looking for them. The articles today (sent by various readers):

• China's LNG imports surge to record amid winter heating crunch, from Bloomberg, December 22, 2017 --
• LNG imports rise 53% y/y to a record 4 million tons
• November LNG pipeline supplies up 27% to 2.5 million tons
• coldest winter in five years has been forecast for Britain, from The Daily [London] Star, December 23, 2017
• it's a bit difficult making sense of the article as written, so I won't say anything but post the link.
• this article and headline are a bit easier to understand. From The [London] Express, November 28, 2017: Britain is facing "snowmageddon" as La Nina to bring Big Freeze. 
• Britain's Christmas weather 2017 is set to be the harshest for years thanks to a freak phenomenon in the world's biggest ocean. Two comments:

I did not see England's most famous analyst mention the forecast for such a harsh British winter; if John Kemp tweeted it, I missed it.

Thank goodness for global warming to provide a bit of warming effect on this very, very cold weather to hit Great Britain ... and just when things seemed to be going so well.

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Synonyms: Hypocrisy, Fake News

Bird Brains

Killing eagles. This is my world view of the laws protecting migratory birds:

• for two centuries (1781 to 1981) the US had the strictest and best-enforced laws in the world to protect migratory birds
• era of Algore: California piloted the advancement of the wind power industry. Between 1981 and 1986, 15,000 turbines producing more than 1,000 MW of power were installed in the state
• in December, 2016, the Obama administration officially announced that individual wind-energy companies that plan to operate the technology for up to 30 years, will be allowed to kill up to 4,200 of the birds without liability. See also Scientific American, in which it was noted that the bill did not limit killings to wind farms: the permits can be sought by "all sources of human-caused eagle mortality," including oil and gas exploration and production, mining, military bases, airports, cell towers and utility lines
• on December 23, 2017, the Trump administration did away with the need for permits and re-interpreted the Federal laws to say that "accidentally killing migratory birds not a crime."

I have no dog in this fight. It is what it is, but considering that slicers and dicers, and solar fryers kill tens of thousands of more birds than any oil site, this bill is clearly a huge win for the renewable energy sector. It also provides a lot of "coverage" for USAF air bases. I know there were more than a few Air Force commanders that wanted to kill the Canadian geese pooping on military golf courses.

It was not hard to see this one coming. Either it's legal or not legal to kill migratory birds accidentally, but one energy industry cannot be held to a different standard than another energy industry.

However this issue plays out -- I assume it will end up in court -- it's going to be entertaining to watch the Sierra Club thread this needle.

Later: now that unlimited bird strikes are allowed, maybe this wind farm developer will re-consider. Back on December 18, 2017, Penn Energy reported that an energy company has cancelled plans for a wind farm in central Montana, blaming the regulators, saying the regulators set the price too high to make the project unfeasible. TransAlta has scrapped the 21-megawatt farm near Martinsdale after regulators approved a price of $23.30 per megawatt hour. The Calgary-based company wanted more than $43 per megawatter hour for the power. Consumers wanted a price of .... drum roll ... $13.96. 

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Short Takes

Montana: I heard on the radio yesterday that the electricity grid is still pretty much shut down in Puerto Rico.

One wonders if this would have been resolved by now if that Montana company had been allowed to simply complete their job and not told to leave the island by the US Congress. Just wondering. I know anything Montana folks set their minds to will get it done. I have personal experience. As a high school wrestler our Williston team wrestled teams from Montana and North Dakota. The only teams that "terrified" me were the Montana teams.

Back to that Chinese winter story, in case the link is broken. It's an important story on so many levels:

The world’s largest energy user -- that would be CHINA -- is facing a winter supply crunch after demand surged this year amid President Xi Jinping’s fight against smog, which has focused on cutting the use of coal in favor of cleaner-burning gas. 

Parts of the country started facing shortages just two weeks into winter, with Hebei and Shandong provinces in the north and central Hubei reporting supply shortfalls last month and curtailing supplies to businesses and factories in order to keep homes warm. 

Spot LNG prices in Northeast Asia rose this week to $10.90 per million British thermal units, the highest in three years. China’s top economic planner last week reiterated its call for gas suppliers should speed up LNG imports to meet winter demand. 

And I thought wind energy and solar energy was going to solve all the world's energy problems. Silly me. 

The Obama Administration: The Sierra Club's Worst Nightmare -- Even The Koch Brothers Were Never So Audacious -- December 14, 2016

Callon Petroleum to enter the Permian. From The Oil & Gas Journal, data points:

• a Natchez, MS, company
• 16,098 net acres
• $615 million in cash
• southern Delaware Basin; Wolfcamp and Bone Spring
• seller: Austin-based American Resource Development
• return: 71% oil
• estimated inventory of 206 net horizontal locations, targeting the Wolfcamp A and B zones; average length of 7,500 feet
• back of the envelope: $615 million / 16,098 acres = $38,000 (which is in the ballpark for other Permian deals)

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Killing Bald Eagles

From PennEnergy:

Final wind-energy rule permits thousands of eagle deaths.

The Obama administration has finalized a rule to let wind-energy companies operate high-speed turbines for up to 30 years — even if that means killing or injuring thousands of federally protected bald and golden eagles.

Under a rule announced Wednesday, wind companies and other power providers face no penalty if they kill or injure up to 4,200 bald eagles.

That's nearly four times the current limit. The standards are tougher for the more rare golden eagle. Fish and Wildlife Service Director Dan Ashe says the new rule will conserve eagles while also spurring development of a pollution-free energy source intended to ease global warming, a cornerstone of the Obama energy plan.

The new rule will conserve eagles. And environmentalists are worried about Trump's appointee for the EPA, Department of Energy, Attorney General, and chief strategist. Get real.

This tells me all I need to know about the Sierra Club which obviously consulted with the Obama administration on this.

4,200 bald eagles/wind farm. Pretty sad.

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The Technology Page

From The Los Angeles Times:

Wynn Las Vegas resort announced Wednesday that it’s putting an Amazon Echo (Alexa) in every room. “The ability to talk to your room is effortlessly convenient,” Chief Executive Steve Wynn said in a statement.

You just know that folks are going to use Echo to order room service. It will pay for itself in a year.

I don't yet have an Amazon Echo, but it's incredibly intriguing.

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They're Lovin' It

He's gonna out-Reagan Reagan. 

Bill Gates and Jim Brown.

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The Literature Page

I don't subscribe to many periodicals any more. I canceled two during the most recent presidential campaign: The Smithsonian and The New Yorker. The first had turned into an advertising monstrosity; the latter had turned into a mouthpiece for Hillary.

I may subscribe to others, but the only three I know I still get: The Wall Street Journal, The New York Review of Books, and, London Review of Books.

London Review of Books presents an enigma for me. Generally speaking, there is not one article in the "magazine" that catches my attention when it arrives. But I keep it on the table, and when I'm ready, I begin reading any article at random, and really, really try to concentrate. And then, I find it a most incredible, a most interesting periodical.

Today, again, the same experience. London Review of Books arrived and it seemed worse than ever. Nothing caught my attention. But as usual, I let it smolder on my dining table.

Tonight while listening to "The Best of Skeeter Davis" through vintage Beats by Dr Dre headphones I started reading an essay on "Records of the Spanish Civil War/Into the Net" by Neal Ascherson. Ascherson writes his essay citing/reviewing four books on the Spanish War, including Spain In Our Hearts: Americans in the Spanish Civil War, April, 2016, by Adam Hochschild.

How coincidental. Some months ago I received an advance copy of Hochschild's book. To say the least, the Spanish Civil War was never one I could understand. But that all changed with Hochschild's book. I finally "understood" it. If  you have any interest in the Spanish Civil War, you might find Hochschild's book interesting. For me, it's a top shelf book and one that won't get put in storage.

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The Music Page

Many, many years ago I was lucky enough to have come across a VHS Country Rhythm and Blues. It is one of my favorites and I still treasure it. For whatever reason I was reminded of it again tonight. I did not realize "Something Else" was an Eddie Cochran song (1959). Amazing.

Something Else, Tanya Tucker and Little Richard

The clip from Country Rhythm and Blues is much, much better but the video on YouTube is of poor quality and that's why I posted the the CMA Awards version above. But, if you haven't seen it before, you might enjoy the CRB version. 

Nothing About The Bakken: Wind Farms And Eagles Officially Off My Radar Scope; Environmentalists Not Worried, Why Should I? -- April 21, 2016

ObamaCare

 

ObamaCare -- it's in better shape than "you" think; and it's here to stay. This is why I would advise GOP to stay as far away from ObamaCare as possible. For the GOP, it's a win-win. If ObamaCare succeeds, the GOP can move on to other issues; health care has always been a sticky wicket; everyone would win if any health care system succeeds. If ObamaCare fails, it will fail on its own; it doesn't need the assistance of GOP. I would never support Ted Cruz on his objective to "repeal" ObamaCare ("naive"). I won't support Trump for other reasons.

But then this, from Fiscal Times: ObamaCare is in such great shape, that huge premium increases are forecast for 2017.

Amid rising drug and health care costs and roiling market dynamics, the spokesperson for the nation’s health insurers is predicting substantial increases next year in Obamacare premiums and related costs.

Without venturing a specific percentage increase, Marilyn Tavenner, the president and CEO of America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP), said in an interview with Morning Consult that the culmination of market shifts and rising health care costs will force stark increases in health insurance rates in the coming year.

“I’ve been asked, what are the premiums going to look like?” she said. “I don’t know because it also varies by state, market, even within markets. But I think the overall trend is going to be higher than we saw previous years. That’s my big prediction.”

If Tavenner is right, Obamacare will jump dramatically—last year’s premium for the popular silver-level plan surged 11 percent on average. Although Tavenner didn’t mention deductibles, in 2016, some states saw jumps of 76 percent, while the average deductible for a 27-year-old male on a silver plan was 8 percent.

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Bureaucratic Math

1/2 = One-Half

By cutting the number of wind turbines in half, the number-crunchers estimate the number of bald eagles killed annually would also be cut in half. A huge thank you to Don for noting this. Neither of us can make this stuff up. Here it is, in their own words:

Chokecherry and Sierra Madre, the largest onshore wind farm planned in the United States, would annually kill 10 to 14 golden eagles, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service projected in a draft environmental study released Wednesday.

That figure represents a substantial reduction from the 46 to 64 golden eagle fatalities estimated by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management in 2012.

Federal officials attributed the decline to several factors. The permit application submitted by the project’s developer, Power Company of Wyoming, only considers the 500 turbines proposed in the project’s first phase. A second phase calls for an additional 500 turbines.

I used to worry about the plight of the golden eagle. No more. It seems there are way more golden eagles than anyone thought possible; so many that killing upwards of a 100 eagles every year by one or two wind farms is no big deal in the eyes of the Federal government.

Wind farms and the plight of eagles: another issue off my radar scope. 

But the developers are getting clever. Estimate a huge annual kill, and then dial that number back and everyone moves on.

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Minnesota Should Start Burning Their Forests -- Amy Klobucher (D-MN)

Somehow, Burning Wood Is Carbon Neutral

The first place to start cutting down those beautiful trees: where the new huge transmission line will be sited.

Link here.

For The Archives: As Long As Americans Feel Slicers And Dicers Are Worth It, Who Am I To Argue

Updates

September 12, 2013: I will post these stories for the archives, but I have lost interest in them personally. If Americans and environmental wackos want to kill golden eagles, bald eagles, whooping cranes, migratory birds, insect-eating bats, who am I to argue. I am glad to see CarpeDiem keeps up the good fight.  And the environmental wackos see no problem with this needless carnage. Again, wind energy has not one redeeming feature. I've said that from the beginning.

September 12, 2013: so, the environmental wackos blame the oil and gas industry for slicers and dicers slicing and dicing birds:

Nice articles, too bad they are nothing but propaganda from the oil, coal, and gas companies trying to discredit and stop the wind, and solar companies from putting a crimp in their profit flow, They did it to the nuclear plants, which are safer than coal or gas plants, with nothing but invented statistics and false information and now they are trying to do it to these sources of clean, safe energy. One question, where is ethanol today? The oil companies killed it. Your articles are In one word: NONSENSE.

Have you ever noticed that when someone is losing an argument, they can only come up with one word to argue the point: nonsense? Sounds like this environmental wacko lost a lot of money on ethanol. LOL.
 

Original Post

From The Washington Times:

Wind energy facilities have killed at least 67 golden and bald eagles in the last five years, but the figure could be much higher, according to a new scientific study by government biologists.

Like drivers under the influence, probably 10% of all deaths are "captured." Rats, coyotes, other varmints probably carried off many of the carcasses before they could be counted. But as noted, who am I to argue: Americans want the slicers and dicers. Local governments have expedited them. Federal government has given them financial incentives.

Golden eagles, bald eagles, whooping cranes, migratory ducks don't vote. They don't have photo IDs.