WTI Surges; Trades Higher Than OPEC Basket -- February 2, 2021

Perfect storm:

• pipeline bans, drilling lease bans
• winter storm Orlena
• weak dollar

Pre-market trading (6:07 a.m. CT, February 2, 2021):

• WTI: surges 2.33%; up over $1.25; trading at $54.80
• natural gas: surges almost 5%; up over 13.3 cents; trading just under $3.00
• OPEC basket: flat; no change; trading at $54.51
• Brent: up 2.25%; trading at $57.62
• Urals: flat; no change; trading at $42.22

COP earnings: press release --

• loss lighter than expected; loss at 72 cents/share; same qtr last year, earned 65 cents/share;
  
• EPS beats by 6 cents:
• beats on revenue; beats by $1.36 billion
• production: 1,118 vs 1,154 Mboe/d forecast;
• cash flow fell 44% to $1.67 billion but topped forecast of $1.39 billion;
  
• dividend unchanged at 43 cents/share;

Overnight, social media:

Fourteen Active Rigs; Eight DUCs Reported As Completed; 347 Wells Change Hands -- February 1, 2021

Whoo-hoo! WTI is up almost 3%, up $1.44; now trading at $53.64. 

The US dollar index (common knowledge for most folks). Quick:

• how many major world currencies make up the US dollar index?
• name five of those countries.

Link here. 

Quick look here.  One year here. 

Silver: LOL -- silver finished lower today; closed at $28.73, down 2.34%; down 69 cents. Link here. 

Ten-year Treasury: at 1.081%, flat.

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$53.64	2/1/2021	02/01/2020	02/01/2019	02/01/2018	02/01/2017
Active Rigs	14	54	64	58	40

Rigs by operator:

• MRO: 4
• CLR: 2
• WPX: 1
• Slawson: 1
• Whiting: 1
• Petro-Hunt: 1
• Oasis: 1
• Hess: 1
• Ovintiv: 1
• BR: 1

Something new: eight salt water disposal permits renewed.

In case you missed it: Hess reported a very, very nice well -- see more here:

• 37066, conf-->loc/A, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-9, 33-061-04618, Alkali Creek, first production, 8/20; t--; cum 143K 12/20; fracked 5/28/20 - 6/5/20: 6.5 million gallons of water; 83.8% water by mass;

Eight producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed, data to be posted later:

• 30539, SI/A, Slawson, Badger 1 SLH, 33-061-03543, Big Bend, fracked 9/18/20 - 9/30/20; 13.6 million gallons of water; 92% water by mass; no production data,
  
• 28113, drl/A, Slawson, Sniper Federal 6-6-7TFH, 33-061-03069, Big Bend, fracked 10/3/20 - 10/16/20; 14.7 million gallons of water; 92.2% water by mass;
  
• 28114, dlr/A, Slawson, Sniper Federal 7-6-7TFH, 33-061-03070, Big Bend, fracked 10/3/20 - 10/16/20; 14.8 million gallons ofwater; 92.3% water by mass;
  
• 36548, drl/A, Oasis,Thelen 5297 11-6 4B, 33-053-09085, Banks, first production, 7/20; t--; cum 77K 12/20; fracked 3/2/20 - 3/20/20; 14.8 million gallons of water; 92.8% water by mass;
  
• 33761, drl/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Jean 7-9-4-157N-99W TFH, 33-105-04488, Lone Tree Lake, no frack data,
  
• 33762, drl/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Jean 7-9-4-157N-99W MBH, 33-105-04489, Lone Tree Lake, no frack data,
• 36486, SI/A, CLR, Sefolosha 4-23H, 33-105-05194, Epping, fracked 2/8/20- 2/22/20; 8.7 million gallons of water; 86.6% water by mass;
  
• 36224, drl/A, MRO, Valerie USA 21-2H, 33-053-08985, Antelope-Sanish, 35K over 12 days extrapolates to 88K bbls over 30 days; fracked 11/21/20 - 12/8/20; 6.6 million gallons of water; 39.5% fresh water by mass; 46.9% produced water by mass;
  

Change of operator: six pages, from Newfield Production Company to Ovintiv Production, Inc.
I count 347 wells in that list. See this post.

Closer Look At Another Incredible Hess Labar Well -- Look How Fast They Drilled This Well -- February 1, 2021

The well:

• 37066, conf-->loc/A, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-9, 33-061-04618, Alkali Creek, first production, 8/20; t--; cum 143K 12/20; fracked 5/28/20 - 6/5/20: 6.5 million gallons of water; 83.8% water by mass;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	19633	19756	9187	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	25572	25487	9101	38279	36968	1311
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	26374	26456	10437	42031	41469	562
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	30026	30017	11932	47067	44685	2382
BAKKEN	8-2020	24	41585	41384	36422	54127	34128	19999

Look at this from the file report:

• spud date: March 1, 2020; serious drilling did not begin until 8:00 a.m., March 3, 2020
• cease drilling: March 8, 2020
• target: middle Bakken
• reached KOP: 10:15 p.m. March 3, 2020 -- 14 hours to drill the vertical
• KOP:
• build began at 9:00 a.m., March 4, 2020
• landed in the middle Bakken; and completed the curve at 5:30 p.m. CT, March 4, 2020; same day
• lateral:
• began at 4:15 a.m., March 6 -- so there was no drilling for a full day (March 5 -- no drilling)
• the center of the ideal geological target area: 30' vertical depth inside the middle Bakken formation;
• overall drilling window had a thickness of 20' with the top of the target window located 20 vertical feet inside the middle Bakken and the base ending at 40' total vertical feet;
• the entire lateral drilled within the target geological area except 270' that was drilled within one foot of the base target location
• as noted, drilled ceased on March 8, 8:10 p.m. CT -- two and a half days to drill the lateral;
• max gas appeared to be 4,024 units;
• TVD: 10,515.86'
• MD: 21,070'