Week 7: February 11, 2025 -- February 17, 2025

Locator: 48563TOPSTORIES.

Geoff Simon's quick connects.

Top stories:

• President Trump
  

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Top Stories

Geoff Simon's quick connects. 

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The First 100 Days
January 20, 2025 - April 30, 2025

Third Week Of President Trump's Presidency

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The Top Stories

Top story of the week:

• President Trump
• DOGE website goes live: https://doge.gov/ (note "gov" not com).
  

Top international non-energy story:

• tariffs
• tariffs on Mexico, Canada on hold for one month
• tariffs on all steel / aluminum coming into the states
• reciprocal tariffs in effect
• deportations continue
• illegal cross-border crossings come "to a stop"
• all within three weeks of Trump being sworn into office
  

Top international energy story:

• OPEC+ won't budget on production quotas
  

Top national non-energy story:

• President Trump
• Federal employees on notice; 
• return to work or get fired 
• Biden loyalists fired
  
• all files on JFK, RFK, Jr., and MLK, Jr., to be opened
• Tim Cook to announce brand new "member of the family" this next week; 
• mostly likely to be a new "SE"; may be called iPhone 6E (current model SE 3)
  

Top national energy story:

• Trump "unleashes" energy; declares "American energy dominance"
• open LNG, oil exploration that Biden had stopped by EO
  

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• 
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

Is Ducks Unlimited A Big Source -- The Major Source? For Methane Emissions -- February 14, 2025

Locator: 48562CO2.

Tag: methane.

From TheWashington Post, the story was posted November 4, 2024:

In fact, the story was first posted by yale.edu, October 25, 2016: it looks like "Ducks Unlimited" is a big culprit than the oil companies. LOL.

The amount of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled in the past 250 years. It has been responsible for about a fifth of global warming. But it has a confusing recent history. The steady rise of emissions stopped in the 1990s. Emissions were stable for almost a decade until 2007, but then abruptly resumed their rise.

[The Bakken boom in North Dakota began, coincidentally (?) in 2007; in Montana in 2000.]

What has been going on? Fracking of natural gas in the U.S. and elsewhere has frequently been blamed for the resumed rise in emissions. But new studies are raising serious questions about that.

Researchers are now saying say that, globally at least, the increase in recent years is due to the activities of microbes in wetlands, rice paddies, and the guts of ruminants.

“Despite the large increase in natural gas production, there has not been an upward trend in industrial emissions,” says Stefan Schwietzke, of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Boulder, Colorado, who is the lead author of one of the new studies.

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Meanwhile: Jiu Jitsu

Over at Fox.

Somehow I never associated "Jiu Jitsu" with President Trump.

Amazing How Fast The Press Is Asking Appropriate Questions In The Oval Office -- Promises Made, Promises Kept --February 14, 2025

Locator: 48561TRUMP.

Covid-19 vaccines: Trump solves the Covid-19 vaccine mandates for public schools.  Via executive order.

Energy dominance: again, an executive order. Doug Borhum will be the lead. The word Trump is associating with US energy: "dominance." National energy emergency. The other word, "unleashed." The global war against US energy has now ended; Trump declares victory. The administration now has four years to work this issue. 

NYTimes: Valentine's Day. Link here.

Geo-politics: I'm hoping for a nice analysis in Foreign Affairs or some such periodical (and eventually a book) on how Trump. plans to "re-order" the entire world. 

The current world order developed out of WWII and then evolved with the Cold War, climate change (global warming), and globalization.

The elite -- the Davos crowd -- decided it was time:

• to pick winners and losers, geopolitically; and,
• to make sure the US lost.

With Trump, everything has changed. Trump plans to "level" the playing field. That's the unifying theme for Trump's geopolitics -- "leveling" the playing field. 

Let's start with energy.

Since the 1950's it was all about the Mideast. Starting today, Trump sees it the age of American energy dominance. Period. 

Then tariffs. 

At one time, tariffs made sense -- to help the poor third world countries. But including China and India as third world countries has long passed, certainly in Trump's mind. And, thus, the tariffs. We no longer need to pretend that China and are a) non-aligned; and/or b) third world. The playing field is going to be leveled and all players play equally: US, EU, Russia, China, India, the Mideast. 

US debt.

Trump cracked the nut. He understands why the US is trillions of dollars in debt, how it happened, and how to change it.

Back to tariffs. In less than three weeks, link here:

Elsewhere: they're starting to talk about Schumer and Jeffries in the same breath. It's worse than folks are letting on. Schumer is of the same school as Mitch McConnell and Jeffries is an Obama doppelgänger. Incredibly poor optics. Meanwhile Mike Johnson is becoming quite the leader of the US House.

Inflation and high price of eggs. Journalists, talking heads, and "analysts" are misreading the inflation story and the high price of egg.  On at least two levels.

Going Into The Weekend -- See The Disclaimer -- February 14, 2025

Locator: 48560DELL.

Movies: TCM tonight -- wow, Casablanca! Watched it for the umpteenth time. Never gets old. 

Now back to regular programming.

Dell shares pop on report of $5 billion deal for AI servers for Elon Musk's xAI. Link here. 

Tectonic changes; administration changes - huge opportunities for investors. Absolutely huge.

Comment on ex-patriots later this weekend, if I remember. Personal story.

OXY: most fascinating story. Warren Buffett buys more shares this week. Link here. Either energy bulls are all going to get rich or Buffett ... I have no idea ... but the little I know about oil, OXY doesn't seem to be any better at finding or producing oil than any of the other majors.

Nvidia: link here.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.   

Bloomberg Law On Federal Firings -- Yahoo On Tariffs -- February 14, 2025

Locator: 48559LAW.

Bloomberg law. Link here. Firing federal employees.

Yahoo!Finance. Link here. The "big one." Trump's tariffs. 

Why Putin invaded Ukraine when he did. Victor Davis Hanson explained it very, very well on February 14, 2025; comments available on YouTube with a February 14, 2025, date. JD Vance said the same thing this past week. The Atlantic misread what JD Vance said but two days later, Trump confirmed JD Vance's comments to help the writers over at The Atlantic. 

Victor Davis Hanson: also explained / discussed Hamas' release of prisoners. Remember: Trump gave Israel the "ok" to do what was needed as of noon, Saturday, February 14, 2025.

Most surprising: how fast ... link here ...

Trump's cabinet appointees: common theme -- their department employees have been given notice that "insubordination" won't be tolerated. See Bloomberg law above.

Best headline of the week?

Anna Paulina Luna, wiki:

Energy Notes -- See Brief Disclaimer -- February 14, 2025

Locator: 48558ENERGY.

Correct me if I'm wrong. LOL. That's rhetorical. Please don't write. 

From today and I bet a lot of folks haven't even seen this (and if they have, they don't care), link here:

US electricity demand, link here:

How much electricity are we going to need? A lot. Or more precisely, an "unprecedented" 3,500 terawatt hours for the globe over the next three years. That corresponds to adding more than the equivalent of a Japan to the world’s electricity consumption each year, according to the International Energy Agency, which is out with a new report called, "Electricity 2025: Analysis and Forecast to 2027."

Snapshot: "Strong growth in electricity demand is raising the curtain on a new Age of Electricity," per the report. "Electrification of buildings, transportation and industry combined with a growing demand for air conditioners and data centers is ushering a shift toward a global economy with electricity at its foundations." Most of the additional demand for electricity through 2027 will come from emerging and developing economies, led by China, which are expected to make up 85% of the growth. 

Perhaps surprisingly, in advanced economies like the U.S., total and per capita demand has stayed relatively flat or even declined since 2009. That's due to increased efficiency across all end-use sectors (like lighting, appliances, and the restructuring/relocation of heavy industries), but things are starting to change amid higher consumption from data centers, EVs, crypto, 5G networks, and heat pumps. In fact, U.S. electricity demand is now estimated to grow at an average annual rate of 2% over the 2025-2027 period, which is equivalent to adding the total electricity demand of California over the next three years. 

Power needs: Stocks like Vistra (NYSE:VST), NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) and Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) all surged in 2024 as key beneficiaries of electricity demand from the AI revolution.

That's set to continue, according to Seeking Alpha Head of Quant Steve Cress, who shares a new list of "Top Stocks For The AI Power Draw." He also points to some quick stats in his latest SA forum, like a "ChatGPT query consumes nearly 10x more electricity than a Google search" and "electricity demands from AI data centers are projected to increase power consumption by 160% over the next decade." 

Bloomberg's daily newsletter: sustainable investors pull away from climate talk. 

For more than a decade, money manager Garvin Jabusch would show a chart of the planet’s rising temperatures when pitching investment ideas to clients, saying they could help save the planet and still make money.

These days, he no longer uses the chart and avoids talking about climate change. “I’ve given up on anyone ever caring about that,” said Jabusch, investment chief of Green Alpha Investments, which manages about $300 million.

He isn’t the only climate-focused investor downplaying references to global warming and related topics. Parnassus Investments, the biggest US sustainable-investing firm, has removed references on its website that its funds are “fossil-fuel free.”

And Engine No. 1, the small activist firm that led the shakeup of ExxonMobil Corp.’s board in 2021, has removed wording on its web page that corporate performance is “greatly enhanced” by investing in workers, communities and the environment. The fund now says it invests in companies that are “powering innovation and driving the reindustrialization of the United States.”

Trump: unleashes LNG and Big Oil. Link here.

President Donald Trump wasted no time flexing his pro-fossil fuel stance, approving the first LNG export permit since Biden’s controversial pause last year and creating a new energy council to expand U.S. oil and gas production. The move is a sharp policy reversal and seeks to reinforce America’s position as the world’s top hydrocarbon producer. 

Commonwealth LNG, the long-waiting recipient of this permit, can now proceed with its 9.5 million metric tons per annum (mtpa) export facility in Louisiana, targeting markets in Asia and Europe. The approval effectively ends the uncertainty caused by Biden’s freeze on new LNG export authorizations—a pause that the administration initially framed as temporary but dragged on into perpetuity.

[Comment: it appears Biden was unaware he had signed this executive order.]

Trump lifted that freeze the moment he stepped back into office.

Beyond LNG, Trump has reopened over 600 million acres of offshore federal waters for oil and gas development, reversing restrictions imposed during Biden’s tenure. The newly formed energy council, led by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, is set to drive policy aimed at maximizing domestic energy output. Industry players are already moving fast.

Cheniere Energy (LNG) and Energy Transfer have signaled plans to accelerate their LNG export projects, while offshore drillers are eyeing fresh opportunities in newly opened federal waters. Trump’s latest moves are sure to inflame environmental opposition, but legal hurdles are unlikely to slow things down much.

A federal judge recently blocked Biden’s LNG moratorium, ruling the pause unjustified. With regulatory roadblocks disappearing and demand for U.S. LNG soaring—especially in Europe, which remains eager to replace Russian gas—the American LNG boom is back in full swing.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.   

Four New Permits -- The Bakken -- February 14, 2025

Locator: 48557B.

Trump: unleashes LNG and Big Oil. Link here.

President Donald Trump wasted no time flexing his pro-fossil fuel stance, approving the first LNG export permit since Biden’s controversial pause last year and creating a new energy council to expand U.S. oil and gas production. The move is a sharp policy reversal and seeks to reinforce America’s position as the world’s top hydrocarbon producer. 

Commonwealth LNG, the long-waiting recipient of this permit, can now proceed with its 9.5 million metric tons per annum (mtpa) export facility in Louisiana, targeting markets in Asia and Europe. The approval effectively ends the uncertainty caused by Biden’s freeze on new LNG export authorizations—a pause that the administration initially framed as temporary but dragged on into perpetuity.

[Comment: it appears Biden was unaware he had signed this executive order.]

Trump lifted that freeze the moment he stepped back into office.

Beyond LNG, Trump has reopened over 600 million acres of offshore federal waters for oil and gas development, reversing restrictions imposed during Biden’s tenure. The newly formed energy council, led by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, is set to drive policy aimed at maximizing domestic energy output. Industry players are already moving fast.

Cheniere Energy (LNG) and Energy Transfer have signaled plans to accelerate their LNG export projects, while offshore drillers are eyeing fresh opportunities in newly opened federal waters. Trump’s latest moves are sure to inflame environmental opposition, but legal hurdles are unlikely to slow things down much.

A federal judge recently blocked Biden’s LNG moratorium, ruling the pause unjustified. With regulatory roadblocks disappearing and demand for U.S. LNG soaring—especially in Europe, which remains eager to replace Russian gas—the American LNG boom is back in full swing. 

North Dakota wind: MDU to acquire interest in Badger Wind Farm to put less emphasis on coal, natural gas. Links everywhere including this one.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.74.

Active rigs: 32.

Four new permits, #41615 - #41618, inclusive:

• Operators: Oasis (3); Phoenix Operating
• Fields: Cottonwood (Mountrail); Big Meadow (Williams)
• Comments:
• Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Shivey well, NWNE 28-158-96, 
• to be sited 400 FNL and 2076 FEL; sections 28 / 33 - 158 - 96;
• Oasis has permits for three Emie Federal wells, lot 6, section 7-157-92; 
• to be sited 2581 FSL and 389 / 455 FWL. All three Emie Federal wells, 1920-acre spacing, sections 7 / 8 / 9 -157-92.

DOGE -- Post Of The Day -- February 14, 2025

Locator: 48556DOGE.

$1.9 billion -- let's call it $2 billion -- "... misplaced during the Biden administration..." Are you kidding me ... "misplaced." 

Today's entry:

GDP -- MMF -- CDC -- Flu -- It's All Here On The Blog -- Whoo-Hoo! February 14, 2025

Locator: 48555B.

GPDNow, link here: 2.3, down from 2.9 last week.

MMF, my favorite chart, link here: a small increase of $5.48 billion. MMFs now at $6.92 trillion.

CDC, flu data, link here:

Amazon Racing To Outspend Everyone on AI -- February 14, 2025

Locator: 48554AMAZON.

Tag: Amazon NVDA Nvidia

Link here.

NVDA: link here. 

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Williams County, North Dakota, Sheriff Admits Complacency
"Won't Happen Again"

DOGE Website Up And Runnung — February 14, 2025

Locator: 48553B.

 https://doge.gov/.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.98.

New wells:

• Sunday, February 16, 2025: 30 for the month, 75 for the quarter, 75 for the year,
• 40844, conf, CLR, Catron 4-26H,
• 40225, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living Tr-LE-156-98-2017H-1,
• Saturday, February 15, 2025: 28 for the month, 73 for the quarter, 73 for the year,
• 39840, conf, CLR, Harms West Federal 5-32H2,
• Friday, February 14, 2025: 27 for the month, 72 for the quarter, 72 for the year,
• 40949, conf, Five States Operating Company, LLC, BC 1-21H,
• 40752, conf, CLR, Taney 4-23H,
• 40365, conf, Enerplus, LK Quilliam 147-97-14-23-7H,
• 40364, conf, Enerplus, LK Quilliam 147-97-14-23-6H,
• 39841, conf, CLR, Harms West Federal 6-32H, 

RBN Energy: Utica shale condensate production is up. Where's it going and how's it getting there?

Wells operated by a half-dozen E&Ps in eastern Ohio’s Utica Shale are now churning out more than 100 Mb/d of superlight crude oil — aka condensate — more than twice as much as they were just three years ago, and there’s talk that condensate production in the play’s “volatile oil window” could increase significantly over the next few years. This surge in condensate output raises three relevant questions: (1) how is the condensate being transported to market, (2) where is it headed and (3) what is it being used for? In today’s RBN blog, we continue our series on Utica condensate with a look at the approaches used to transport the commodity to refineries and others in the Midwest and points beyond.