Locator: 49220ELECTRICITY.
North Dakota comes in lowest for "all sectors," July 2025.
Louisiana, #2.
For all sectors, excluding Alaska, Hawaii:
Locator: 49093CALIFORNIA.
This was reported yesterday -- I don't recall if I posted it or not -- but here's the summary:
Governor Gavin Newsom has struck a deal with legislative leaders and the oil industry to allow for more drilling in Kern County by streamlining environmental reviews, with the aim of stabilizing gas prices. This compromise includes provisions that will waive portions of California's landmark environmental law for new oil wells in Kern County, alongside measures to address the closure of refineries. The legislation is intended to boost local oil production, balancing the state's energy needs with the ongoing shift toward renewable energy.
I believe that is the story to which Giovanni Staunovo is referring here, link here. Apparently the California environmental folks aren't happy.
Behind a paywall, link here, and archived:
HOUSTON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - California's Energy Commission voted on Friday to temporarily set aside penalties for excessive refining profits that were adopted after gasoline pump prices climbed over $8 a gallon in 2022.Coincidentally, this blog was posted about twelve hours earlier, link here.
The five-year delay in implementing the penalties comes as Phillips 66's Los Angeles refinery is preparing to begin shutting production as early as next week ahead of a permanent closure.
The fact is, supply is declining faster than demand, and we need to bring them into alignment: that means slowing supply loss while aggressively pursuing the transition to zero emission vehicles," the Commission's staff said in an emailed statement. [So far, there is no Plan B to slow supply loss in California, according to ChatGPT.]
California's Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom had proposed the penalties, but has since switched direction amid worries of price spikes in 2026 after the closure of the Phillips 66 refinery and a San Francisco-area plant operated by Valero Energy Corp next year.
California refiners: link here.
Phillips 66 on track to shut down its California refinery as scheduled, or perhaps slightly ahead of schedule. No talk yet of who might buy it. ChatGPT says there are no reports of anyone looking to buy this refinery, and the state of California seems to be caught flat-footed on this development though it was announced years ago; California was very, very aware of this closure; but, failed to come up with a Plan B, except to import refined products.
Flashback to 2022:
In 2022, California gasoline prices saw significant increases, driven by events like the Russia-Ukraine war.
Prices reached historic highs, averaging $5.89 a gallon in the summer of 2022, with some counties seeing prices over $6.
The surge in California prices occurred alongside record-breaking national averages, with the U.S. average reaching $4.25 per gallon in March 2022.
In Oregon, it was not much better.
In 2022, average gas prices in Oregon peaked around $5.55 per gallon in June and remained high, with an average of $5.14 in late September before dipping slightly by year-end, although overall prices were consistently above the national average.
These elevated prices were driven by high demand, supply constraints from West Coast refinery issues, and limited crude oil transportation options like pipelines.
PSX ticker:
Locator: 48905CA.
The lede of this op-ed:
Bed Bath & Beyond is reemerging from bankruptcy with new storefronts and an updated business model, but Californians won’t see the retailer return to their local shopping centers.
More:
Bed Bath & Beyond, once a mainstay of American malls, filed for bankruptcy in 2023 and shuttered all stores, including nine in the Bay Area. Later that year, Overstock.com purchased the brand’s assets and rebranded as Beyond Inc. This month, the first revamped Bed Bath & Beyond Home store opened in Nashville, part of a plan to convert roughly 75 former Kirkland’s locations nationwide by 2026.
But then this:
A press release today from Beyond Inc. explains why the expansion will have a particular geographic limit. The release includes the following statement from Bed Bath & Beyond Executive Chairman Marcus Lemonis, who has become a familiar presence on Fox Business Network after earlier star turns on CNBC and ABC:
We will not open or operate retail stores in California. This decision isn’t about politics — it’s about reality.
California has created one of the most overregulated, expensive, and risky environments for businesses in America.
It’s a system that makes it harder to employ people, harder to keep doors open, and harder to deliver value to customers. The result?
Higher taxes, higher fees, higher wages that many businesses simply cannot sustain, and endless regulations that strangle growth.
Even when the state announces a budget surplus, it’s built on the backs of ordinary citizens who are paying too much and businesses who are squeezed until they break… Californians will continue to get the products they love through BedBathandBeyond.com — but without the inflated costs created by an unsustainable model.
Governor Newsom responded on x, noting that Bed, Bath and Beyond had re-opened its first store and wishing the chain good luck in opening a second store.
That's the governor of California.
Much more at the link.
So far, 128 comments at the article. Most support Newsom. Cognitive dissonance. I'm sure the same enjoy high gasoline prices. I have no dog in either fight.
Speaking of which, I wonder how the In 'N Out family move to Nashville, TN, is going?
Meanwhile, we now have a proverbial circular firing squad. Posted by The Los Angeles Times just two hours ago, it's now being reported that the Democrats in the California House are investigating California's high-speed rail project, investigating whether the California high-speed rail authority knowingly misrepresented ridership projections.
Locator: 48714TRAIN.
Just how expensive is the California bullet train: link here.
Locator: 48814REFINERY.
I don't think there's a governor today that has marketed himself as much as Governor Gavin Newsom has as a "greenie." Now, planning to run for president in 2027 / 2028, there's a fly in the ointment: really, really high gasoline prices in California next summer, 2026.
This will likely be a stand-alone post. The link was sent to me by a reader. Thank you. I probably would have eventually gotten to it but I do miss a lot of things so I appreciate the link.
California officials are stepping into the fray to urgently find a buyer for Valero’s Benicia refinery before its scheduled closure in April 2026, a rare move that underscores the state’s growing anxiety over fuel security and price volatility. According to Reuters, in an exclusive report on Wednesday, the state has opened talks with potential buyers, including HF Sinclair and at least one unnamed European energy firm, to take over the Bay Area facility and preserve in-state refining capacity.
The 149,000 barrels-per-day refinery is one of just 10 refineries still operating in California. Its shutdown, combined with the planned 2026 closure of Valero’s Wilmington facility in Los Angeles County, could reduce the state’s gasoline and diesel production by nearly 17%.
In a position of desperation, the California Energy Commission is leading the effort to broker a deal, with support from the governor’s office. The move is an attempt to avoid severe market disruptions and cushion consumers from steep price spikes.
The stakes are particularly high. State modeling suggests that removing Benicia from the refining system could push pump prices toward $8 per gallon, particularly during summer demand peaks. Analysts warn that the closures could also reduce fuel inventories and strain supply chains across the western U.S.
As KQED reported earlier this month, Benicia city officials were blindsided by Valero’s June 28, 2025, announcement. Local leaders fear the loss of one of their top employers and taxpayers, Benicia receives roughly 40% of its general fund from refinery-linked revenues.
The way I read this, it's not going to come about without huge political cost and at the end of the day, the writing is on the wall for California: gasoline is only going to get more expensive going forward regardless of whether this refinery "survives." Who knows? Valero is now in a incredibly great position. What if Valero decides to slow-roll the sale or even suggest that it has decided to keep the refinery but with huge give-backs, tax-breaks, etc., from the state. This could get very interesting very, very fast.
Scheduled for closure in April next spring, what might happen if a deal can't be closed by June, and the refinery goes through a typical planned shutdown and then re-start in late September. Wow, that would be a "hot" summer for the governor.
My hunch: everyone will be adults and a solution will be found.
Locator: 48633CALIFORNIA.
Tag: green cost of renewables California
This is so monumental that neither MSBC or CNBC will report this.
Locator: 48561CA.
Updates
Later, 10:04 p.m. CT: link here --
Original Post
After seeing this, I can't decide if I want to go swimming again tonight, or take in Wes Anderson's The Phoenician Scheme a second time (in three nights). After being in the pool three hours earlier today, I'm a bit waterlogged ...
This is not a parody. It's "real."
Locator: 48673CA.
I think there's a bigger story here than simply "California is broke."
Medi-Cal:
The US House last month approved a Republican budget plan that could shrink Medicaid spending by $880 billion over 10 years, only partially paying for an extension of expiring tax cuts from President Donald Trump’s first term, plus some new ones he has promised, totaling as much as $4.5 trillion.
What cuts could mean for California: A spending cut of that magnitude would have a huge impact in California, with nearly 15 million people — more than a third of the population — on Medi-Cal (which is California's name for its Medicaid program). More than half California's children are covered by Medi-Cal. And over 60% of Medi-Cal’s $161 billion budget comes from Washington.
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Racial Quotas
In a motion in federal court in Kentucky, the Justice Department said the Transportation Department’s longstanding Disadvantaged Business Enterprise program (DBE) violates the Constitution’s Equal Protection Clause. This is the program that sets aside federal contracts for women and minorities. The DBE program doles out some $37 billion in contracts over five years.
The case was brought by the Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty (WILL), which sued the federal government in 2023 on behalf of Mid-America Milling and Bagshaw Trucking. The companies say they were denied contracts because they weren’t minority- or woman-owned. In September 2024 federal Judge Gregory Van Tatenhove issued an injunction and said the case was likely to succeed on the merits.
Race and gender quotas have warped government contracting since the early 1980s, and the DBE requirements were most recently authorized by the Biden Administration. They required states to administer a federal formula that set aside roughly 10% of contracting dollars for everyone from architects and engineers to companies that lay the asphalt and provide the steel.
In many cases that raised costs for taxpayers. According to an MIT study of California, the cost of state-funded contracts fell 5.6% relative to federally funded projects after the state passed Proposition 209 that ended racial preferences in state contracts.
Wednesday’s change follows through on President Trump’s January executive order to “terminat[e] illegal discrimination in the federal government.” The impact of the change shouldn’t be underestimated. DBE contracts cover American infrastructure from roads in Alaska to airplanes from Boeing. WILL’s Dan Lennington says about 10% to 15% of U.S. GDP flows through government contracting.
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Never Served In The Military,
Still Thinks He Understands Warrior Spirit
Locator: 48653EVS.
This will be fascinating. When Biden was in office, GM was doing everything it could to support Biden, California, Newsom, and EVs.
According to AI, when asked, "GM CEO Barra position on EVs":
Broad Portfolio:GM aims to offer a broad portfolio of EVs to meet diverse consumer needs, with the goal of being fully electric by 2035.
By the way, on another note, why is Ford unwilling to move Mustang Mach-e manufacturing to the US? The answer is all about cash burn. I still find it amazing that the graph at that link is almost impossible to find elsewhere.
Locator: 48621TRAIN.
Updates
May 22, 2025: nothing new here. Updated numbers. That's about it. Link here.
I believe the last estimate just a few months ago, was another $7 billion would be needed by next summer; now it's estimated that another $10.2 billion may be needed by next summer in order to continue funding the project, and there might be a $400 million cost reduction. New estimate is on the higher range and is largely due to inflation.
Reminder: California's current budget is as much as $12 billion underwater (a deficit of $12 billion) so this new number for the bullet train, $10.2 billion, is unachievable under the present circumstances, unless the Federal government steps up to the plate. Next proposal: a $10-billion bond proposal for California taxpayers.
If the $10.2 billion goes forward, that will make the project more expensive than the entire project that was proposed decades ago. Th updated cost estimate for the Merced to Bakersfield corridor ranges form $34.9 billion to $38.5 billion. The initial proposal was $45 billion for the entire project form San Francisco to Los Angeles.
In round numbers that $38.5 billion is $40 billion and no one would be surprised if that was eventually raised to $50 billion.
Original Post
From the linked article:
Of all the government-spending boondoggles in history, California’s bullet train may be the most costly ever. That’s not news. In 2015, it topped the Houston Chronicle‘s John Boyd’s list of America’s 20 biggest wastes of money ever at $68 billion. That was just a little over double the $33 billion California’s politicians promised it would cost when they asked voters to approve it in 2008.
Ten Years Later
The Associated Press‘ Sophie Austin reports “the project’s price tag now exceeds $100 billion, more than triple the initial estimate.” In her article, she describes how far along the project is and the current plans the CEO of the California High-Speed Rail Authority, Ian Choudri, has for moving it forward.
California’s construction is far from completion. Of the 119 miles (192 kilometers) of construction underway in the Central Valley, only a 22-mile (35-kilometer) stretch is ready for the track-laying phase, which isn’t set to start until next year.
Finishing the line in the Valley is just the first step. Next, the train has to extend north toward the San Francisco Bay Area and south toward Los Angeles. Choudri’s goal within the next 20 years is to build to Gilroy, about 70 miles (113 kilometers) southeast of San Francisco. Under current public transit, it would then take at least one more train transfer to get into the city.
Southward, he envisions building to Palmdale, 37 miles (60 kilometers) northeast of Los Angeles. From there, it takes more than one hour to drive or two hours on an existing train line to reach Los Angeles.
In 2020, the population of Palmdale was 169,000, and the population of Gilroy was 58,000, who are no doubt excited they’ll be able to travel between the two cities on California’s high-speed rail as early as 2045.
Bullet train updates:
Amid mounting uncertainties about its future, the new leader of the California High-Speed Rail Authority says the project is close to reaching a significant milestone: the first Central Valley tracks will be laid next year.
Ian Choudri, who became the authority’s CEO in August, said Tuesday at a Fresnoland panel that the long-delayed bullet train project is too far deep into construction to look backward. [In other words, "too big to fail."]
“We are purchasing rail materials this year, we are laying tracks next year,”
Choudri said. “I don’t see any point where we have to say, ‘Oh, we can’t do it.’”
Previously, he said, plans were to purchase rail materials — including tens of thousands of concrete rail ties, electric poles and ballast — in 2026 or 2027. But the faster timeline, Choudri said, is a result of a reevaluation of the project that the authority launched in October to save costs and tighten the construction schedule.
Locator: 48491CALIFORNIA.
Updates
April 26, 2025: WSJ opinion. Waste of ink.
Original Post
Link here: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-lawmaker-warns-likely-move-blue-state-will-make-gas-prices-skyrocket. You will have to "cut and paste" that link.
This is a fascinating story. I will come back to this story later if I have the energy.
To put this in perspective:
And this:
At best, this will only result in an increase in the price of gasoline in California. My hunch: if necessary, the state of California will allow another operator to come in to operate the refinery.
Critical mass:
The loss of refinery capacity in the state of California is a fascinating one. Social media has no clue.
My not-ready-for-prime-time initial thoughts on the news yesterday that Valero was going to close its large refinery in northern California in early 2026. I sent this to the reader who sent me the link to the story in the first place:
This is an incredibly fascinating story. There’s a phenomenon in math/physics — the phenomenon of critical mass — and we see it in many instances, including nuclear weapons. LOL.
But, for me, the best example is a brain tumor. The brain is encased in a non-expandable skull, unlike the abdomen. An abdominal mass can grow to an unbelievable size and won’t cause any problem simply due to its size. A brain tumor is completely different. It can grow in size to a very limited extent, often resulting in no signs or symptoms whatsoever, before it reaches critical mass and the individual literally goes into a coma, seizes, or dies in a space of hours, without immediate surgical relief of that intracranial pressure.Likewise, a significant shortage of gasoline occurring in a very short period of time, in a state already with the highest gasoline prices in the United States, won’t simply result in a gradual increase in price. Early on it will be obvious there’s a shortage of gasoline when service stations don’t receive their usual allotment. It will start with the small independents, first in the rural areas and the quickly in the large cities. One will start to see plastic bags placed on gasoline pump nozzles with "out of order" advisories. At that point, it’s over. Panic will set in. People will keep their gas tanks full, exacerbating the situation.All things being equal, if nothing changes between now and the refinery closure I give California one month before it becomes an unimaginable state — and then a national — emergency.Gasoline will be rationed and California will be back to gas lines. Focusing on the price of gasoline is the wrong metric. It won’t be price; it will be panic.I don’t think California has the port facilities necessary to import that much gasoline.
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In Other California News
San Francisco Centre is a ghost town. Link here. Link here.
Price of gasoline in California: link here.
Phillips 66 will cease operations at its refinery in Los Angelese this year. Link here.
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Fortunately Everyone In California Has An EV
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More From California
Locator: 48459ARCHIVES.
Catching up on links.
California Medi-Cal:
California: Governor Newsom using "smoke and mirrors" to assure California voters the state is not "broke" because of all the money being spent on illegal immigrants. Link here.
Twelve million new Americans surged across the border during the Biden administration and most of them stopped first in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and California. Most of those who arrived first in California, stayed. Many who first arrived in Texas left as quickly as they could for a sanctuary state.
I still think Texas should offer bus vouchers to all non-residents coming across the border from Mexico. Bus vouchers: one-way to California, New York, and/or Illinois. Vouchers to Washington, DC, would come with $100 spending money -- real US currency. In all cases, street addresses for free housing at the city of destination.
A year ago physicians' offices were standing room only; all of a sudden, these same physicians' offices now have more than enough open seating. Victor Davis Hanson was first to report on this new phenomenon. Twelve million folks laying low for now.
Amazon: continues to deliver. I am so impressed. Among everything else, I cannot even imagine how much I've saved in mailing costs.
Voting in federal elections: US House passes bill requiring proof of citizenship. Link here. Will John Thune deliver?
The grid: PJM, the grid, google, and Tapestry. Link here. This all points to huge demand for electricity going forward. And, here.
Polestar: anyone can make a luxury EV. Link here. The trick is to make money. So, we'll see. Also, don't forget: Polestar is a Chinese company. Lucid is a Saudi company. Both with deep pockets. Tesla is a battery and an operational "renewable regulatory credit" company.
Ouch: Intel CEO -- Chinese-American or American-Chinese or American or Chinese? Link here. Under Biden it didn't matter. Under Trump, it will. Link here, also.
American opportunity, American exceptionalism, Americans keeping America great, link here to The WSJ:
In half a lifetime, Jonny Kim has achieved the American dream three times over.
He was a Navy SEAL.
Then he graduated from Harvard Medical School. [It's one thing to graduate from Harvard Medical School; it's another thing to practice military medicine overseas at a remote location. Raise your hand if you've done that.]
And on Tuesday, he blasted off as part of his latest act: astronaut.
When novelist Wesley Chu first learned about Kim, a 41-year-old father of three who is also a Navy pilot, his first reaction was awe.
His second: “Thank God my mom is not friends with his mom.”
After word of his feats spread, Kim became a global source of inspiration. And yet, to many of the same people who glance at his résumé and can’t help but compare it to theirs, he has also conjured up a bit of another feeling.
Dismay.
This has been especially true in the Asian-American community, where Kim, the son of South Korean immigrants, has been simultaneously lauded as a hero—and feared, only half-jokingly, as “every Asian kid’s worst nightmare.”
The worry: No matter what they achieve, their high-demanding immigrant parents will say Jonny Kim already did that—only better. “We accomplished all this stuff, but really, it’s what he did that matters,” Chu said.
Kim became an internet meme among Asian Americans, who frequently take to social media to express gratitude that he’s not a relative. NASA’s social-media posts about Kim are flooded with comments expressing similar sentiments. “As a fellow Asian, I hope my parents do not get to read this. But, safe journey my man,” one wrote. Chu wrote about that feeling of inadequacy in a viral post, which inadvertently hammered in the point by containing a typo.
The US astronaut program: where really, really, really bright, high-achievers, go to die (figuratively). Chu needs to do his four years as an astronaut and then do something really, really big. Much could be said.
Locator: 48415PINOCCHIO.
LOL: Microsoft supports plan for high-speed train -- 250 mph -- to connect Portland (OR) - Seattle (WA) -- Vancouver (BC). Even if it's possible (and it's not), why?
What's more likely in 2050:
High speed rail: link to NYT.
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Acela: Fastest Amtrak In The US
Acela, fastest Amtrak train in the US, Boston to NYC:
Locator: 48383CALIFORNIA.
California:
Los Angeles is broke: link here.
The Bullet Train: an update. Victor Davis Hanson says the cost of the Bullet Train is now estimated to be $300 billion.
Locator: 48531CALIFORNIA.
Updates
March 20, 2025: link here.
Original Post
Biggest economic story on my mind right now? California's budget. By this summer, this may be the #1 financial story among states. California has very little wiggle room. It already has highest tax rates; highest energy costs; highest Medicaid (Medi-Cal) costs. And an unfriendly administration.
California has taken these steps to balance the budget:
Governor Newsom is blaming it on two things:
The "high prescription costs" is bogus. That's been a problem for decades. Nothing new here.
The problem is really about uninsured illegal immigrants -- 12 million of them, most of whom come first to Texas, and then spread out to friendly states (such as California) / sanctuary cities (such as San Francisco and Los Angeles). And, yes, uninsured illegal immigrants are prescribed high-cost pharmaceuticals just as those high-cost pharmaceuticals are prescribed for insured folks.
To me, it doesn't matter. I have no dog in this fight. I don't live in California.
But I find it fascinating to see how Governor Newsom gets out of this one.
Population of California: 40 million.
Medi-Cal critical payments loan: $6.2 billion.
$6.2 billion / 16 million households = $400 / household. Or about $1 / day / household. Easily manageable.
Warren Buffett's company holds about $350 billion in cash. $6.2 billion / $350 billion = 1.8%.
By the way, on another note, there is an obvious way to end that phenomenon of sanctuary cities.
Locator: 48528CALIFORNIA.
Money is fungible. Whatever money California might receive from the Federal government to help re-build after the fires, a significant amount of that money will be carved out for illegally documented criminals and sanctuary cities. They might even use a bit of that money for the Bullet Train.
Locator: 44677FIRES.
For those more interested in the Bakken, one can do the same thing for that area as described below.
Pacific Palisades fire.
That third of three reservoirs?
Hasn't had water in it since 2009 or 2010. Hard to say exactly when it last had water.
Search: Santa Ynez Reservoir, Pacific Palisades (cut and paste).
At top of page, click on "icon" for timeline.
Then simply go year-by-year, or every six months.
If. you zoom in, you can see Homer Simpson in the parking lot.
Needs to be fact-checked. Perhaps they fill it for a few weeks during fire season every year, and the satellite simply didn't catch the filled reservoir, though prior to 2009 many images of a filled reservoir.
Locator: 44669CALI.
To put the Pacific Palisades financial loss in perspective: right now, the losses due to the fires may be about what the cost of the Bullet Train is currently said to be.
This past week, just hours before the fires began in southern California and mayor Bass was (soon?) on her way to Ghana, Africa, Governor Newsom was breaking ground on a new railyard for the Bullet Train. As Taylor Swift would say, "a lot going on at the moment."
Near Shafter, CA:
Construction of a new railyard between Wasco and Shafter in Kern County will set the stage for the eventual construction of tracks and other operating systems for California’s planned high-speed rail project.
The site, called a railhead, is near the southernmost end of a 22-mile stretch of the future bullet-train route from the Tulare-Kern county line to Poplar Avenue near Shafter, northwest of Bakersfield.
This got a lot of press, but in fact, it's nothing more than a staging area for material. Governor Newsom suggested that rail would start to be laid in a "couple of years."
To put this all in perspective, the losses from the southern California fire were estimated to be in the $20-billion range in the first couple of days, but now estimates are as high as $150 billion.
The Bullet Train is apparently still a $100-billion short, according to other sources.
So, as I see it, if California has enough money to pay for a bullet train way over budget, the state will have more than enough to cover the southern California fires.
“This damn thing is substantially permanent,” Newsom said of the overall Valley portion of construction from north of Madera to Shafter, the first stages of what is planned as an initial operating segment for the trains between Merced and Bakersfield.
“Finally, we’re at the point where we’re going to start laying down this track in the next couple years.”
On another note, the governor can say any budgetary deficits the state incurs over the next few years can be blamed on the fires.
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The Small Screen Page
One of our favorite series back in the day.
