Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Just A Thought -- September 3, 2019

Very, very, very few folks will understand this note.

There are a lot of third generation, and maybe fourth generation, folks with a North Dakota connection who are getting "mailbox money" that is a gift from their homesteading grandparents and/or great-grandparents. Good for them. Those that get that mailbox money are reminded of their heritage every month, and, I hope, never forget to count their blessings.

Again, play it loud. With Bose headphones.

I'd Rather Go Blind, Beth Hart

Something To Think About -- September 3, 2019

I'm sure we will come back to these some day. Harold Hamm has something up his sleeve.

The screenshots:

The wells:
  • 36386, drl, CLR, Nadia 8-19H, Jim Creek,
  • 36385, drl, CLR, Nadia 9-19H1, Jim Creek,
  • 36384, drl, CLR, Nadia 10-19H, Jim Creek, 
A great song, Bose headphones, and played very, very loud:

Something To Think About, Willie Nelson

One one thing wrong with this song: way too short.

Wow, I love "Texas friendly" driving.
Tonight, driving home with Sophia (five years old) from soccer practice, we're on the typical two-lane frontage road, driving south. We're going about 55 mph, parallel to the interstate. A pick-up truck turns directly towards us on the frontage road but stays on the shoulder. I realize immediately that for him to go legally from point A to point B he would have to take a 3-mile roundabout trip to get to point B. But by driving illegally against the traffic, on the shoulder he can get from his point A to his point B, he can be there in less than a quarter mile.

I knew immediately what he was doing. I kept my speed, gave him a bit more room, and a thumbs up -- what a great state.
I feel blessed to have witnessed the "original" Nadia.
Nadia Elena Comăneci, Romanian: born 12 November 1961;  a Romanian retired gymnast and a five-time Olympic gold medalist, all in individual events. 
Comăneci is the first gymnast to be awarded a perfect score of 10.0 at the Olympic Games, and then, at the same Games (1976 Summer Olympics in Montreal), she received six more perfect 10s en route to winning three gold medals.
At the 1980 Summer Olympics in Moscow, she won two more gold medals and attained two more perfect 10s. During her career, Comăneci won nine Olympic medals and four World Artistic Gymnastics Championship medals.
Comăneci is one of the world's best-known gymnasts and is credited with popularizing the sport around the globe.[6] In 2000, she was named as one of the Athletes of the 20th Century by the Laureus World Sports Academy.
She has lived in the United States since 1989 and is married to American Olympic gold medal gymnast Bart Conner.
1976: wow, so long ago. A different universe.

The Book Page

My books this week:

Just Asking? -- September 3, 2019

Was the Grand Bahama the Queen's "Katrina"?

On Another Note

Medley, Willie Nelson

Wow! I Love This Blog -- #2 -- September 3, 2019

The well:
  • 27177, 1,943, XTO, Cherry Creek State 44X-36C, Siverston, t6/14; cum 218K 7/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

A Note To The Granddaughters

This is one of my favorite songs. It begins:
It's knowing that your door is always open
And your path is free to walk
That makes me tend to leave my sleeping bag
Rolled up and stashed behind your couch
I didn't care for Glen Campbell all that much, but the lyrics to some of his songs were simply incredible -- so many metaphors, such real poetry. 

When I moved out to California in 1973, I ran into a most beautiful woman. I left my sleeping bag behind her couch, so I would have something when I went to visit her and stayed overnight ....

Gentle On My Mind, Glen Campbell

Wow! I Love This Blog -- September 3, 2019

I only just posted the Nordeng wells just a few days ago, at this post.

At the time, I noted #20026, Nordeng 24-13H, was still off line, and had been off-line for about a year.

Look at this! Nordeng is back on line. The well:
  • 20026, 1,355, off line as of 9/18; Oasis, Nordeng 24-13H, Banks, t7/11; cum 225K 9/18; remains off line as of 6/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

 Radar Love

Radar Love, Rockwiz

Two comments:
  • major risk of wardrobe malfunction; and, 
  • I lost my train of thought.

Four New Permits -- September 3, 2019

Permian: before we get to the Bakken, this from Investor's Business Daily:
  • Concho Resources, largest producer in the Permian
  • will sell assets in its New Mexico Shelf
  • buyer: Spur Energy Partners
  • price: $925 million, but let's call it a billion
  • 100,000 gross (not net) acres
  • acreage valued at $725 million to $875 million
  • analyst: very small percentage of Concho's overall Permian assets
  • analyst: producing wells most mature older vertical wells
Spur Energy, from Houston Chronicle:
Spur Energy was founded earlier this year by Jay Graham and his team after selling Houston's WildHorse Resource Development for $3 billion late last year to Chesapeake Energy.
WildHorse had focused on the northeastern portion of the Eagle Ford shale.
Spur partnered with the private equity firm KKR & Co. for financing to develop oil and gas acreage in the booming Permian Basin, starting with the more mature New Mexico shelf on the edges of the Permian. Spur initially bought shelf acreage this spring from Houston's Percussion Energy. Comment: one wonders if Spur Energy understands New Mexico politics?
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6063563375

Four new permits:
  • Operators: Petro Harvester (2): Oasis (2)
  • Fields: Woburn (Burke County); Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Petro Harvester has permits for two Woburn 1 wells in section 5-162-90, Woburn oil field
    • Oasis has permits for two Thelen wells in section 34-153-97, Banks oil field
Seven permits canceled:
  • White Butte: seven Jore Federal permits, all in McKenzie County
Two permits renewed:
  • Resource Energy: a Pacer permit and a J. Adeline permit, both in Divide County
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
  • 33423, 846, RimRock, MC MHA 24-10-2H, Moccasin Creek, t4/19; cum 80K 7/19;

Car Sales -- August, 2019 -- Anticipation

US car sales, August, 2019: pending.

Forbes, link here:
“August will be a blockbuster month for the industry. Sales are expected to post the largest year-over-year gain since December 2016.” said Thomas King, Senior Vice President of the Data and Analytics Division at J.D. Power.
“Labor Day is one of the most heavily shopped periods of the year, with consumers motivated by heavy discounts on outgoing model-year vehicles and new 2020 model-year vehicles arriving in showrooms. Last year, more than 237,000 vehicles were sold during the Friday-Monday holiday period.” 
What a great country. But ...

Forecast, link here. Forecast --
  • total new vehicle sales will reach 1,602,276 units in August, up 4.2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days
  • for 2019, August sales include the entirety of Labor Day Weekend sales, while August 2018 only included up to the Friday prior to Labor Day Weekend, giving August 2019 a sales advantage
  • this month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.6 million units
  • excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,402,687 units, an increase of 3.1% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days
  • "Despite heavy chatter and speculation about the trade war and the future of the economy that’s stoking uncertainty, the fundamentals including employment and wages are performing well and having a positive impact on auto sales,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. 
Additional takeaways & trends:
  • BMW stood out this month for sales growth, expected to be up 16.8% on total vehicle sales and 18.1% on retail sales year-over-year. Trends on the TrueCar platform indicate strong performance from their SUVs including the all-new X7, which has quickly risen to be the number two best-selling model in the premium Fullsize Utility segment since launching earlier this year. 
  • Tesla’s sales ascent is expected to continue, up 12.5% year-over-year, however growth softens compared to previous months as Model 3 sales ramped up significantly starting in August 2018. 
  • Automaker average incentive spend should reach $3,825, up 1.2% or $45 dollars year-over-year, and down 2.2% or $85 from July 2019. The most notable declines in incentive spend are expected from Kia, down 12.7%, Hyundai, down 9% and Ford, down 6.9%. Meanwhile Honda is expected to raise incentives by 15.8%, FCA, up 9%, and GM, up 8.8%. 
  • Average transaction price (ATP) should continue to rise, up 2.1% or $702 year-over-year. Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are expected to be 11.2%, down slightly at 0.9% from a year ago and down 1.9% from July 2019. 
  • Hyundai, Kia, Volkswagen, Mercedes, and BMW all stood out this month in ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI) brand strength metric. This was largely driven by new, redesigned, or strong performing SUV product including the Hyundai Palisade, Kia Telluride, Volkswagen’s Atlas and Tiguan, Mercedes’ GLE and BMW’s all-new X7. 
  • TrueCar and ALG also assessed brand retention performance through the replacement vehicle indicated via TrueCar’s consumer trade experience.

    • RAM had the highest indicated brand retention at 44%. This is up significantly from 36% last year which ranked them 10th. 
    • Honda ranked 2nd at 41% indicated brand retention which was on par with last year. ○ Subaru ranked 3rd at 40%, up from 9th last year.○ 
    • Lexus and Chevrolet ranked 4th and 5th respectively. 

  • The average indicated retention across all brands was 32%. Used vehicle sales for August are expected to reach 3,350,362 down 0.2% year-over-year and flat from July 2019.
Cox Automotive here.  August sales volume expected to rise 6.5% but seasonal adjustments reduce the sales pace; annual sales pace expected to fall to 16.5 million in August down from July's 16.8 million level.

RIgs Continue To Decline -- Energent -- September 3, 2019

One exception: Williston Basin up 6.3% to 51 rigs compared to 48 rigs one week earlier. Link here.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- September 3, 2019

A continuation of "those not paying attention are missing an incredible investing opportunity."

Stock on thin ice -- zerohedge. Have stocks successfully averted a crisis

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Heard on the Street, WSJ: the American consumer keeps beating expectations
What is different this time round is that three years of rising employment and pay seem to have imbued household budgets with a higher degree of resilience. Last week, government statisticians revised down U.S. economic growth for the second quarter to 2%, due to the impact of weaker-than-expected exports and inventory investment, but recorded a strong pickup in company earnings and consumer spending—now upgraded to its strongest reading since 2014. Official figures also showed a sharp rise in U.S. consumer spending in July.

This has benefited much of the consumer-led economy. During the first half, earnings declined in S&P 500 sectors like industrials, materials and energy, but this was offset by profit growth in consumer industries, health care and even banks. Manufacturing is, after all, only 10% of the U.S. economy.

As a result, S&P 500 earnings per share are up almost 20% relative to the second quarter of 2018. In more export-dependent Europe, Euro Stoxx 50 earnings are only down slightly over the same period. Profits were much weaker in the 2015-2016 deceleration, particularly in Europe, where domestically focused industries are also holding up much better.
EVs: remember the hand-wringing some years ago about shortage of lithium? Now, from Bloomberg, the lithium industry buildup is outracing the EV boom. More than enough lithium.  Six new mines in Australia; EV sales slow in China.

Eight Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- September 3, 2019

Wells coming off the confidential list over the long Labor Day weekend -- 
Tuesday, September 3, 2019: 8 for the month; 140 for the quarter
  • 35225, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-0915H-3, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 34755, SI/NC, MRO, Higgins 31-26TFH, Killdeer, a DUC, but produced 10,437 bbls over 5 days which extrapolates to 62,622 bbls over 30 days;
Monday, September 2, 2019: 6 for the month; 138 for the quarter
  • 36089, SI/NC, WPX, Ruby 31-30HEL, Antelope-Sanish, a DUC, but produced 21K bbls over 17 days;
  • 34226, 585, Oasis, Nelson 5298 11-4 2TX, Banks, t3/19; cum 98K 7/19;
  • 24018, SI/NC, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 7-31-30TFH, Elm Tree, no production data,
Sunday, September 1, 2019: 3 for the month; 135 for the quarter
  • 35226 , SI/NC, BB-Federal A-LS-15-95-0915H-2, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 34756, SI/NC, MRO, Snider 41-26TFH, a DUC, but produced 12K over 8 days;
  • 34304, SI/NC, XTO, Rougth Federal 44X-23C, North Fork, no production data,
Saturday, August 31, 2019: 0 for the month; 132 for the quarter
  • None. (There was no February 31) 
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6463563375

RBN Energy: with new pipeline capacity, Permian oil and gas prices ascend the basis cliff.
Battered by a flood of new supply and limited pipeline takeaway capacity, prices for Permian natural gas and crude oil have spent a lot of time in the valley over the past 18 months. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices at the Permian’s Midland Hub traded as much as $20/bbl less than similar quality crude in Houston last year. That’s a big oil-price haircut that producers have had to absorb while ramping up production. However, the collapse in the Permian crude oil differential was tame compared to what happened with Permian natural gas prices. Prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas traded as low as negative $5/MMBtu, a gaping $8/MMBtu discount to benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana. As bad as that all was, new pipeline takeaway capacity has arrived, and Permian prices are beginning to claw their way out of the depths. Today, we look at how new pipelines are impacting the prices received for Permian natural gas and oil.