Car Sales -- August, 2019 -- Anticipation

US car sales, August, 2019: pending.

Forbes, link here:

“August will be a blockbuster month for the industry. Sales are expected to post the largest year-over-year gain since December 2016.” said Thomas King, Senior Vice President of the Data and Analytics Division at J.D. Power.

“Labor Day is one of the most heavily shopped periods of the year, with consumers motivated by heavy discounts on outgoing model-year vehicles and new 2020 model-year vehicles arriving in showrooms. Last year, more than 237,000 vehicles were sold during the Friday-Monday holiday period.” 

What a great country. But ...

Forecast, link here. Forecast --

• total new vehicle sales will reach 1,602,276 units in August, up 4.2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days
• for 2019, August sales include the entirety of Labor Day Weekend sales, while August 2018 only included up to the Friday prior to Labor Day Weekend, giving August 2019 a sales advantage
• this month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.6 million units
• excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,402,687 units, an increase of 3.1% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days
• "Despite heavy chatter and speculation about the trade war and the future of the economy that’s stoking uncertainty, the fundamentals including employment and wages are performing well and having a positive impact on auto sales,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. 

Additional takeaways & trends:

• BMW stood out this month for sales growth, expected to be up 16.8% on total vehicle sales and 18.1% on retail sales year-over-year. Trends on the TrueCar platform indicate strong performance from their SUVs including the all-new X7, which has quickly risen to be the number two best-selling model in the premium Fullsize Utility segment since launching earlier this year. 
• Tesla’s sales ascent is expected to continue, up 12.5% year-over-year, however growth softens compared to previous months as Model 3 sales ramped up significantly starting in August 2018. 
• Automaker average incentive spend should reach $3,825, up 1.2% or $45 dollars year-over-year, and down 2.2% or $85 from July 2019. The most notable declines in incentive spend are expected from Kia, down 12.7%, Hyundai, down 9% and Ford, down 6.9%. Meanwhile Honda is expected to raise incentives by 15.8%, FCA, up 9%, and GM, up 8.8%. 
• Average transaction price (ATP) should continue to rise, up 2.1% or $702 year-over-year. Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are expected to be 11.2%, down slightly at 0.9% from a year ago and down 1.9% from July 2019. 
• Hyundai, Kia, Volkswagen, Mercedes, and BMW all stood out this month in ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI) brand strength metric. This was largely driven by new, redesigned, or strong performing SUV product including the Hyundai Palisade, Kia Telluride, Volkswagen’s Atlas and Tiguan, Mercedes’ GLE and BMW’s all-new X7. 
• TrueCar and ALG also assessed brand retention performance through the replacement vehicle indicated via TrueCar’s consumer trade experience.


• RAM had the highest indicated brand retention at 44%. This is up significantly from 36% last year which ranked them 10th. 
• Honda ranked 2nd at 41% indicated brand retention which was on par with last year. ○ Subaru ranked 3rd at 40%, up from 9th last year.○ 
• Lexus and Chevrolet ranked 4th and 5th respectively. 


• The average indicated retention across all brands was 32%. Used vehicle sales for August are expected to reach 3,350,362 down 0.2% year-over-year and flat from July 2019.

Cox Automotive here.  August sales volume expected to rise 6.5% but seasonal adjustments reduce the sales pace; annual sales pace expected to fall to 16.5 million in August down from July's 16.8 million level.