Monday, February 21, 2022

The Civil War In Ukraine Has Been Going On Since 2014; Tens Of Thousands Of Deaths To Date -- February 21, 2022

Updates

February 22, 2022: in response to the original post, a reader noted that "rumors" of ethnic cleansing, which had been ongoing for many years, was apparently much worse this past year; it will be interesting if Bill Maher gets this one right.

Original Post

Posted: 4:25 p.m. February 21, 2022:

  • Vladimir Putin has ordered "peacekeeping operations to begin in eastern Ukraine." -- source. 
  • Other sources much clearer: Putin has ordered peacekeeping operations to begin.
  • President Biden has issued executive order banning any investment in Eastern Ukraine.
    • that sent a powerful message -- social media
    • safe to go home to Wilmington, DE, tonight to attend to family business that was temporarily delayed.
  • Also, reports of Russian tanks moving into Donetsk. 
  • USAF activity along Ukraine's western border: link here.
  • Kiev airport remains open to civilian/commercial traffic.
  • WTI-Brent spread widening:
    • WTI trading at $93.95.
    • Brent at $97.40.

Original Post

  • France's Macron "gets" Putin to agree to a one-on-one with Biden.
  • Biden sets conditions. Sounds like Biden not serious.
    • Kamala Harris 
      • is Biden's point woman on this issue (war in Europe)
      • along with southern border surge, her hands are full
      • sounds like she won't have time to attend official state funerals
    • bad things come in threes: the British Queen has Covid
  • Putin rebuffs.
  • Putin says he will decide today whether to "recognize" the breakaway Ukraine states aligned with
  • Russia: Donetsk and Luhansk. 
  • Russia playing chess; France and the US playing checkers. 

Map of Ukraine, from the BBC


Comment
: this seems like an easy "fix." If one is entirely unbiased, if one remains entirely logical … what would Mr Spock say … with whom would he roam?

No Daily Activity Report Today; WTI Up Over 2% Today; Closed Above $92 -- February 21, 2022

Ted Turner: biographer speaks for Ted Turner

The meme is unchanging: supply won't meet demand this summer. "Everyone" is repeating that data, and the consensus is that oil will reach $100 this summer. Since we're already at $94 getting to $100 is not all that unlikely. Now, this today: Middle Eastern oil nations hike prices as production falters. Link to Gerald Jansen

Glad it's over: the Olympics. It sounds like "everyone" agrees.

WTI: gained 2.44% today; up $2.22; closed at $93.29.

Active rigs:

$93.29
2/21/202202/21/202102/21/202002/21/201902/21/2018
Active Rigs3315546655

No daily activity report; Presidents' Day.

The Covid Queen Is Being Treated With Ivermectin -- Off-Limits For The Rest Of Us -- February 21, 2022

Refinery fire: the explosion / fire in Garyville, Louisiana -- fourth largest refinery in the US. Link here. In found numbers, the price of WTI jumped about $1.00 after the fire/explosion was reported. More interesting, and occurring before the fire / explosion: the widening between WTI and Brent. 

Walmart dividend: Walmart appears to be "accelerating" its quarterly dividend with a dividend being paid in both March and May, less than two months apart. This is simply a "calendar-thing." In fact, Walmart will be paying the same number of quarterly dividends this year as every previous year. Link here.

Ukraine:

  • France's Macron "gets" Putin to agree to a one-on-one with Biden.
  • Biden sets conditions.
  • Putin rebuffs.
  • Putin says he will decide today whether to "recognize" the breakaway Ukraine states aligned with Russia: Donetsk and Luhansk.
  • Russia playing chess; France and the US playing checkers. 

Map of Ukraine, from the BBC

Comment: this seems like an easy "fix." If one is entirely unbiased, if one remains entirely logical … what would Mr Spock say … with whom would he roam? 

****************************
Word for the Day

Ogygia: the island of Ogygia was where, according to Homer, the nymph Calypso detained Odysseus for seven years.

Calypso was "the" daughter of the Titan Atlas.  

There is little agreement today which "modern" island might be Ogygia.

************************
Crystal Gayle

I don't particularly care for Crystal Gayle in concert (as seen on YouTube) but for hours (?) of easy listening, country music, it would be hard to beat Crystal Gayle as served up by Alexa.

A BR Demicks Dodge Well In Demmick Lake Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 21, 2022

The well:

  • 33338, 420, BR, Demicks Dodge 1A MBH-ULW, 4 sections, 62 stages; 10.4 million lbs, all mesh, t12/17; cum 476K 11/20; see this post; cum 484K 5/21; cum 505K 12/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20213132533221242283508081192
BAKKEN11-202130345934632729874686720
BAKKEN10-202128270126282419661165410
BAKKEN9-20212825562546257867606487203
BAKKEN8-2021312928292629356505641810
BAKKEN7-2021312732271546667297718931
BAKKEN6-20213017931774560153425154114
BAKKEN5-202120639624517418961521325
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-20210020000
BAKKEN2-2021684834431500

A BR State Dodge Well In Dimmick Lake Has Just Reported 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumlative -- February 21, 2022

The well:

  • 32981, 76, BR, State Dodge 2C TFH, SWSE 21-151-95; Dimmick Lake, t5/19; cum 384K 11/20;  a 42K month; a huge well; cum 433K 1/21; cum 509K 12/21; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20213178507768681446706465850
BAKKEN11-20212885278560767245167450380
BAKKEN10-2021311090410909917144927447700
BAKKEN9-2021271085710835890037262371330
BAKKEN8-2021311351213511116313864937847670
BAKKEN7-20213111269112511157731137310160
BAKKEN6-2021301255912535117053351732919465
BAKKEN5-20213112739127351348533001300532822
BAKKEN4-20213010420104711317728037279010
BAKKEN3-2021311113011245823027098269220
BAKKEN2-202128728486233734789775670
BAKKEN1-202127765463555394570548730
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-202011210000
BAKKEN10-2020126652704343943190330654144
BAKKEN9-202030168471649010210643306201150
BAKKEN8-20203117934179221456260096551512731
BAKKEN7-202031132131338779462928926922784
BAKKEN6-20202182815281373518826012454
BAKKEN5-202073476361232131756916761183

BR's Dodge Wells In Dimmick Lake Showing Production Profiles -- February 21, 2022

These wells are tracked here.

This well, recently off line, is now back on line:

  • 16579, IA/409, BR, State Dodge 11-21H, NWNW 21-151-95; Dimmick Lake, t7/07; cum 206K 10/19; off line 10/19; remains off line 2/20; intermittent since then; t207K 4/21; back on line 10/21; cum 214K 12/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20213115871598165812264121870
BAKKEN11-20213022522457198015282152080
BAKKEN10-20213127612834204910478104010
BAKKEN9-202189316528562057198948
BAKKEN8-20210000000

This well now has an IP:

  • 34293, loc/NCW-->loc/A, BR, State Double Dodge 1A TFH-ULW, SWSW 21-151-95; Dimmick Lake, t3/21; cum 140K 5/21; cum 155K 12/21; cum 155K 12/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2021311011710015851851200510670
BAKKEN11-202130112681127091835047450105226
BAKKEN10-202131112991133694364160440836625
BAKKEN9-2021301350613482108514666246050452
BAKKEN8-20213117174172211257650701493541175
BAKKEN7-2021311852918492147814795747367406
BAKKEN6-20213019830197901388445482441881116
BAKKEN5-20213119988199001539546321430293111
BAKKEN4-2021305823610065401490714574262
BAKKEN3-20213127152268291685945024447310

 This well with a jump in production:

  • 32950, 166, BR, State Dodge 2A TFH, SWSE 21-151-96, Dimmick Lake, t5/19; cum 300K 11/20; a 42K well; a huge well; cum 310K 3/21; off line for several months off and on in late 2020 - early 2021; cum 369K 12/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202131784977901476737662375640
BAKKEN11-20213010264102671300933303332080
BAKKEN10-202131104111043012090268752670874
BAKKEN9-20212711351113191465629118290170
BAKKEN8-20213113158131001533124311242270
BAKKEN7-20212659715903771411335112910
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-202100690000
BAKKEN3-20212657795852591014096140040

This well now has production profile (note IP of 0):

  • 36315, 0-->drl/NC-->A, BR, State Dodge 1D MBH, SWSW 21-151-95; Dimmick Lake, t2/21; cum 61K 5/21; cum 177K 12/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2021311121011085759968280681030
BAKKEN11-2021301158611602730850526503820
BAKKEN10-202131126311263073073591735251543
BAKKEN9-202130120611208864963371733149453
BAKKEN8-2021312045920513979949793480091617
BAKKEN7-2021312184321819154965192751306421
BAKKEN6-20213025648256141350054167525271428
BAKKEN5-20213128373284401411552929510911623
BAKKEN4-20213032960327021571740616404190

This well also showing production profile:

  • 36314, drl/NC-->drl/A, BR, State Dodge 1C TFH, SWSW 21-151-95; Dimmick Lake; first production, 3/21; t--; cum 69K 5/21; cum 169K 12/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20213199049801891762320621580
BAKKEN11-2021301079110820944358521583540
BAKKEN10-2021311282512884985248995488240
BAKKEN9-202130165731652611108485894840318
BAKKEN8-2021311926319230117084116440112912
BAKKEN7-202131132581325799212691826650164
BAKKEN6-2021301713317149110053213631170840
BAKKEN5-2021312477424738150254299041907907
BAKKEN4-202130165661676686222452623579832
BAKKEN3-20213127718273881085139203389480

I'll stop there, but one gets the idea.

An Enerplus Persian Cat Well Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 21, 2022

These wells are tracked here

The well:

  • 31130, 2,184, Enerplus, Persian 147-93-06A-07H, Moccasin Creek, t4/18; cum 491K 6/21; cum 513K 12/21;

CLR's Carus Wells In Cedar Coulee -- What A "Mature" Basin Looks Like -- February 21, 2022

These wells are tracked here.

These wells are now reporting production:

September 23, 2020: new Carus permit --

  • 37854, conf, CLR, Carus 14-28H1, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96; see also #37066, below;

June 1, 2020: new Carus permit --

  • 37606, conf, CLR, Carus 3-28H, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96, 442 FSL 1466 FWL; probably near #16648, and #21974

UPDATE:

  • 37854, conf--.>drl/A, CLR, Carus 14-28H1, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96; first production, 9/21; t--; cum 109K 12/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20213137519375843229353651506842729
BAKKEN11-20213038398383624385751392490462128
BAKKEN10-20213028923285784215642074402201620
BAKKEN9-2021640413819910743814174162
  • 37606, conf-->drl/A, CLR, Carus 3-28H, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96, 442 FSL 1466 FWL; first production, 9/21; t--; cum 117K 12/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20213133994340252372351695488262631
BAKKEN11-20213033045334231976450353480442091
BAKKEN10-20213145781451312615549100469651887
BAKKEN9-2021444804233274644214263113

See huge jump in production:

A Reminder: This Is What A "Mature" Basin Looks Like -- MRO's Monster Wells -- February 21, 2022

Link here.

I wasn't interested in these particular wells so much -- despite how huge they are -- but more interested in the neighboring wells. Some slight production jumps in neighboring wells, but not remarkable. 

So, we move on.

This Is What A "Mature" Basin Looks Like -- February 21, 2021

These wells are tracked here.

Again, all those folks who don't understand what a "mature" basin looks like. 

Note: it's important to realize that due to time constraints, that for every well I post, there are at least another fifty I could be posting. Just saying. 

  • 35062, IA/1,018-->A, Enerplus, was SI/NC-->1,018, Enerplus, Leatherback 152-94-33C-28H, Antelope, t9/19; cum 223K 8/20; AL; 42 stages; 10 million lbs; taken off line 9/20; remains off line 4/21; back on line 12/21; cum 237K 12/21;

Note: this well was taken off line back in August, 2020. 

Now, look at this, almost eighteen months later, it's back on line, stronger than ever:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH12-202129122251213091128858686448550
SANISH11-202129499157438883878628
SANISH10-20210000000
SANISH9-20210000000
SANISH8-20210000000
SANISH7-2021001380000
SANISH6-20210000000
SANISH5-20210080000
SANISH4-202100360000
SANISH3-20210000000
SANISH2-20210000000
SANISH1-20210000000
SANISH12-20200000000
SANISH11-20200000000
SANISH10-20200000000
SANISH9-20200000000
SANISH8-202021996710046710632791285653338
SANISH7-2020302189221702116014474442337657
SANISH6-20204313532361450627035852429
SANISH5-202017103121046461832314318488309

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me; A 41x Jump In Production -- February 21, 2022

Folks paying attention have probably noticed all the new permitting activity in Cedar Coulee by Harold Hamm / CLR. 

Perhaps this is why. These wells are tracked here.

The well:

  • 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 164K 10/20; cum 168K 6/21; off line 7/21; remains off line 8/21; back on line 10/21; cum 208K 12/21; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2021311600416229896919237188180
BAKKEN11-20213020533203411956322195217900
BAKKEN10-20216331930195476328832070
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-2021110001000
BAKKEN6-2021304575861178884960
BAKKEN5-202131500524829595400

Cedar Coulee, and this well, is just one mile west of the incredible Oakdale field "owned" by CLR. 

And, of course, that leads us to a sister well in that same section:

  • 18636, 633, CLR, Bang 2-33T, Cedar Coulee, t5/10; cum 208K 10/20; cum 214K 6/21; off line 7/21; six days in 8/21; may be coming back on line; cum 233K 12/21;

It, too, shows a nice jump in production, just not as remarkable.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2021313649371522703770332724
BAKKEN11-2021305351551648455173468880
BAKKEN10-202131571655314550577953780
BAKKEN9-202126427845146376417838500
BAKKEN8-20216386053685274480
BAKKEN7-20212001320
BAKKEN6-20213064180919710146090

So, what's going? 

Most likely, the two pads to the south are now being drilled / completed:

Pad to the west:

  • 38677,
  • 38676,
  • 38675,
  • 38674,
  • 38673,

Pad to the east:

  • 38606,
  • 38607,
  • 38608,
  • 38609,
  • 38614,
  • 38610,

Which, then, of course, brings us to the Oakdale Whitman wells to the section to the immediate east.

Lo and behold, an old well is off line:

  • 17061, IA/664, CLR, Whitman 11-34H, Oakdale, t6/08; cum 504K 9/21; off line 9/21;

Which means the other newly permitted Whitman wells are being completed, but no production data yet.

One may want to take another look at a huge Whitman re-frack:

BAKKEN12-2019312759727551651334966345490
BAKKEN11-201930275972760376773039129150843
BAKKEN10-201925196151931767822010519254574
BAKKEN9-201927194581975859322095620086592
BAKKEN8-201931279222778010332296982921665
BAKKEN7-2019312575226021127962886328109349
BAKKEN6-20193027902279081290329790293890
BAKKEN5-20193027570276701120328086255222193
BAKKEN4-2019302842728258124863008629312382
BAKKEN3-201931286282868614764312543081923
BAKKEN2-20192825683253191420226821264500
BAKKEN1-20191613734136011012813831136280
BAKKEN12-2018221621616649926018218165941334
BAKKEN11-2018293205032060798233651307742503
BAKKEN10-20183137074369921081339302356113272
BAKKEN9-20183036826366251433138670340104265
BAKKEN8-2018447314441237846213785786
BAKKEN7-20181676784403
BAKKEN6-2018111380000
BAKKEN5-2018004030000
BAKKEN4-20181632393127473246523760
BAKKEN3-201819548656317564317413950
BAKKEN2-20182553105088595444542610
BAKKEN1-201831105131072518698937864150
BAKKEN12-2017312190321790484124087238390
BAKKEN11-201730194521980953791966718479968
BAKKEN10-201721121501140168471354971916268
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-20171002000
BAKKEN4-20175380363981151140
BAKKEN3-201761573200108990
BAKKEN2-2017416217001740158
BAKKEN1-2017315828401540153
BAKKEN12-20162147001620146
BAKKEN11-201631521840500