Wednesday, May 10, 2017

They Would Prefer A CBR Fireball? Of All The Things Going On In The World... May 10, 2017

... the headline is a 2-bbl of oil pipeline spill. Pretty funny.

They would prefer a CBR fireball?

Meanwhile, the Hanford is out of control: emergency declared at Obama's nuclear clean-up site in Washington state, where two rivers converge on the mighty Columbia River, home of generations of native Americans who claim rights to all riparian ecosystems in the universe. -- NPR reports. You can fact check at wiki. If you are eating salmon from the Columbia River, you may want to invest in a Geiger counter.

NOKO is about to test another nuclear weapon.

The engines on Boeing's new 737 are failing.

Syria is out of control.

But hey, let's post a headline story on a two-bbl spill of oil. LOL.

Aetna: It's Over

It was real. It was fun. But it wasn't real fun.

Aetna to completely pull out of ObamaCare by 2018.

I am thrilled that the US House "repeal and replace" bill is DOA in the US Senate. I have no idea why the GOP is even wasting time on this. ObamaCare is dying on the vine. I have no idea why the GOP wanted to wade into this mess.

Let it run its course.

The good news: by the time the US Senate gets around to "repeal and replace" ObamaCare will have played itself out. Good riddance. (See this story also.)

[Update, May 11, 2017: CNBC noted that Aetna, United Healthcare, and Humana have now all pulled out of ObamaCare web exchanged. Under Hillary that would have simply been the required steps on the way to a "single payer system" -- the US government -- NHS.]

It's Over, Roy Orbison

The more I read of the Trump White House as portrayed by The New York Times, the more it reminds me of the docu-drama-sitcom, VEEP.

Wow, I hope he doesn't change.

We finally have a president worthy enough to be compared to FDR, Teddy Roosevelt, and/or ... well, that's about it. He's out-Reaganed Reagan.

One just knows, that like Veep, he is three steps ahead of his staff, just ready to go over the cliff, leaving his subordinates to sort it out. I got a kick out of the fact that today, the day after the BIG NEWS, he sent Susan Huckabee Sanders out to "meet the press" rather than the meek and mild-mannered Sean Spicer. (Sure, he's on US Navy Reserve duty. LOL.)

I have never donated a dime to a political party, but I'm thinking of sending one dollar to President Trump at least once a week, cheering him on, and ensuring he reads my note -- 'cause there's a donation inside. 


I don't want to get on any mailing lists. But I certainly hope Trump doesn't change. He's a breath of fresh air.

Sort of like VEEP.

Drain the swamp.

Please, Do It

US to ban all laptops in all cabins on all flights from Europe. That'll show 'em. Another option: unless they fly an American carrier.

Saudi's Worst Nightmare

Pioneer has made similar comments before.

Bullish On America -- May 10, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, relationship, travel, or job decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

I could not possibly be in a better mood from an investing point of view.

The tea leaves suggest oil and oil service companies are going to do just fine. Remember: oil is boom and bust.

Some data points:
  • ND rig count at 51
  • flash crash for crude oil brought oil down to $43 the other night; today, back to $47; the actual number is not important; the trend is important
  • US CAPEX for on-shore drilling is running 10x greater than the rest of the world: lots of jobs
  • Nasdaq keeps hitting new highs; Dow 30 not far behind
  • EOG cash costs coming in at $13 for a bbl of oil
  • we have a POTUS who doesn't take time to draw lines in the sand; he's make a decision and moves on
  • drawdown of crude oil most recent reporting period: huge; 6 million bopd; at this rate, only 28 weeks to get to "hysterical" levels
  • summer will soon be here: driving season; Saudi needs to keep more of its oil at home
  • EIA's short-term outlook looks better and better each month
  • a CLR well with an IP of "754" goes on to produce a half million bbls; only eight years into production; will produce for 30+ years;
  • OPEC will extend cuts; OPEC running out of options
  • EURs for Bakken wells now tracking one million boe type curves
  • one can buy Bakken minerals for as little as $1 / acre vs $40,000 / acre in the Permian
  • Texas is in hyperdrive

A Very, Very Meager Daily Activity Report -- May 10, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs512884192184

Three permits renewed:
  • EOG: three  Burke permits in Mountrail County.
And that was it.

Idle Chatter On Fossil Watches -- Nothing About The Bakken -- May 10, 2017

Something I completely missed or had not thought much about.

Many years ago I did suggest that Fossil watches could be "challenged" by the ubiquitous nature of iPods, iPhones, and then iPads. That was before the advent of Apple Watches and other smart watches.

Once Apple Watches appeared it would be just that much more "challenging" for Fossil watches.

What I never thought of was collateral damage caused by the demise of "big box stores" and the decreased foot traffic in urban malls.

The Street shows just how badly this has turned for Fossil:
When a major department store closes a store, often Fossil (FOSL) loses a place to sell its watches. And that harsh reality of retail right now is really taking its toll on the watchmaker. 
After Tuesday's market close, Fossil reported a net loss of $1 a share for the period ended April 1, steeper than the loss of 27 cents a share analysts surveyed at Factset expected.
The company posted revenue of $581.8 million, lower than Wall Street's estimates for $591 million.
Shares of Fossil crashed as much as 16 percent in after-hours trading. 
In America, sales plunged 17 percent, while watch sales dropped 9 percent, leather items fell 21 percent and jewelry slipped 12 percent. In its retail business, same-store sales fell 11 percent.
The CEO tried to put a "smiley face" on these results but, as noted at the article, not everyone agreed.

Again, a note for investors: take a look at where products are being sold, not just disruptive technologies..

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read at this blog or think you may have read. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Random Update Of A Hess BB-Federal Well -- May 10, 2017

Back in April, 2017, this note over on "things to follow up on": 
April 3, 2017: 18218, check on that well's production in a couple of months. Nearby wells were just completed (see #32460) and 2/17 production extrapolates to 7,000 bbls/month which would be a significant jump in production. 
We now have the production data through 3/17 for #18218:
  • 18218, 615, Hess, BB-Federal-151-95-0817H-1, Blue Buttes, t4/10; cum 364K 3/17
Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Update On Newfield Well #18414 -- Sand Creek Federal -- Coming Back On Line -- May 10, 2017

For me this is really, really cool. We now have the production data for this well now that it has come back on line. See this post.

Random Update Of A Re-Fracked Hess BB-Olson Well In Blue Buttes Oil Field -- May 10, 2017

Link here.

One More "Thing" That Will Delay Trump's Tax Cuts -- Compiled By Mainstream Media -- May 10, 2017

The "Comey Affair" or as Brian Williams labeled it with some cleverness, "The Tuesday Night Massacre," has now been added to the list of those things that will delay Trump's tax cuts as compiled by the mainstream media:

Mainstream Media's List Of Things That Could Delay Trump's Proposed Tax Cuts

FBI Director James Comey fired
Healthcare bill stalls
French Le Pen loses in a landslide
NOKO says it will launch nukes on White House
Putin aligns with Iran and Syria
Zika virus outbreak in Florida
Pope reconsiders beatification and canonization of St Theresa
AIDS pandemic could worsen
Speaker of the US House Paul Ryan waffles
Anthony Weiner runs for mayor NYC; gets Huma's endorsement
Ivanka appointed honorary director, Paris Protocol On Climate Change
Hillary Clinton announces plans to run for president in 2020; Pope considers beatification
Another Bakken CBR derailment (with or without explosion)
Meteorite strikes Mar-a-Lago (when Trump is in New Jersey)
Meteorite strikes Mar-a-Lago (when Trump is hosting Canadian Trudeau; meteorite misses both)
Stephen Colbert says tax cuts will be delayed

A huge "thank you" to a reader who brought this list to my attention.

By the way: in Brian Williams' universe, the firing of one presidential appointee is tantamount to a "massacre." I wonder what word he uses for what is going on in Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, Afghanistan, or even what happened on 9/11?

I no longer care about tax cuts: if we don't get the tax cuts we have no one to blame but Congress. Trump did all he could do. If the folks we elect to Congress don't want to enact tax cuts then we don't "deserve" them, do we?
Comey's Tragic Comedy

From a more reputable source, I suppose: from over at the website "Free Republic"  --

Here are 10 of Comey's biggest embarrassments at the FBI:
  • Before he bombed the Boston Marathon, the FBI interviewed Tamerlan Tsarnaev but let him go. Russia sent the Obama Administration a second warning, but the FBI opted against investigating him again.
  • Shortly after the NSA scandal exploded in 2013, the FBI was exposed conducting its own data mining on innocent Americans; the agency, Bloomberg reported, retains that material for decades (even if no wrongdoing is found).
  • The FBI had possession of emails sent by Nidal Hasan saying he wanted to kill his fellow soldiers to protect the Taliban -- but didn't intervene, leading many critics to argue the tragedy that resulted in the death of 31 Americans at Fort Hood could have been prevented. 
  • During the Obama Administration, the FBI claimed that two private jets were being used primarily for counterterrorism, when in fact they were mostly being used for Eric Holder and Robert Mueller's business and personal travel. 
  • When the FBI demanded Apple create a "backdoor" that would allow law enforcement agencies to unlock the cell phones of various suspects, the company refused, sparking a battle between the feds and America's biggest tech company. What makes this incident indicative of Comey's questionable management of the agency is that a) the FBI jumped the gun, as they were indeed ultimately able to crack the San Bernardino terrorist's phone, and b) almost every other major national security figure sided with Apple (from former CIA Director General Petraeus to former CIA Director James Woolsey to former director of the NSA, General Michael Hayden), warning that such a "crack" would inevitably wind up in the wrong hands.
  • In 2015, the FBI conducted a controversial raid on a Texas political meeting, finger printing, photographing, and seizing phones from attendees (some in the group believe in restoring Texas as an independent constitutional republic).
  • During its investigation into Hillary Clinton's mishandling of classified material, the FBI made an unusual deal in which Clinton aides were both given immunity and allowed to destroy their laptops. 
  • The father of the radical Islamist who detonated a backpack bomb in New York City in 2016 alerted the FBI to his son's radicalization. The FBI, however, cleared Ahmad Khan Rahami after a brief interview. 
  • The FBI also investigated the terrorist who killed 49 people and wounded 53 more at the Pulse Nightclub in Orlando, Fla. Despite a more than 10-month investigation of Omar Mateen -- during which Mateen admitting lying to agents -- the FBI opted against pressing further and closed its case. 
  • CBS recently reported that when two terrorists sought to kill Americans attending the "Draw Muhammad" event in Garland, Texas, the FBI not only had an understanding an attack was coming, but actually had an undercover agent traveling with the Islamists.
I would call them more than embarrassments. Perhaps, "dereliction of duty"?

And Schumer, et al, are singing his praises. Wow. I'm living in a different universe. But the Dems do get a two-fer out of this: a) they see Comey fired, the one who they say cost Hillary the election, and wanted him fired; and, b) they can blame it on Trump's irrational behavior.

See, also Michael Goodwin over at The New York Post

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Not Particularly Remarkable -- May 10, 2017

Wells coming off confidential list at the end of the week --

Thursday, May 10, 2017
  • 30488, drl, MRO, TAT USA 14-22H, Antelope, no production data,
Friday, May 12, 2017
  • 25411, conf, QEP, MHA 4-10-15H-149-91, Heart Butte, producing, albeit small amount, raises question of whether it has been fracked; (25414, 25413)
  • 25412, conf, QEP, MHA 2-10-15H-149-91, Heart Butte, producing, albeit small amount, raises question of whether it has been fracked, (25414, 25413)
  • 30133, conf, MRO, Veronica USA 14-22TFH, Antelope, no production data,

DAPL: The Evolution Of A Peaceful Protest -- May 10, 2017


September 26, 2017: North Dakota's bill rises for oil pipeline protest costs. 
The North Dakota Emergency Commission, headed by Republican Gov. Doug Burgum, voted to borrow an additional $5 million to cover law enforcement costs, bringing the total line of credit from the Bank of North Dakota to $43 million, the bulk of which likely will have to be repaid by state taxpayers. 
Original Post
Apparently, Part 1 of this story had to do with tracking the dollar donations for the DAPL protest.

Part 2: Witnesses saw good and troublesome behavior. Long, long article. Well worth the read. A big "thank you" to the reader who sent me the story. The lede:
A society of thousands that had its genesis in a prayer camp in the summer of 2016 at the confluence of the Cannonball and Missouri Rivers has evolved into something that is almost unrecognizable from those languid summer days.

Elliott Rhoades is a member of the Standing Rock Tribe and is a regular columnist with Teton Times. Rhoades is a former Vice Chairman for the tribe, a former tribal councilman, and he is the former Tribal Veterans Service Officer.

Here is a portion of a narrative he wrote for the paper.
“I went out to those camps as they were being formed, Red Warrior camp consisted of people who were intent on creating trouble and problems from the start. They intended to disrupt everything and everybody, thus creating problems then decided to leave.

The overflow camp consisted of everyone else who thought they should be a part of this protest, but had no idea of why? Hundreds of people were soon descending on Standing Rock with the intent of taking part in a peaceful, prayerful, non-violent protest to try and stop this pipeline from being completed. Thus putting an end to the route. This was the intent. But as you read, this did not happen…
A Note For The Granddaughters

Virginia Woolf said writers were "collectors of phrases."

My grandfather has a small farm near Newell, SD, and had a few dairy cattle. He would have been up well before dawn and into bed late at night. I thought about that when I came across a most wonder line by Joyce Carol Oates in her memoir, The Lost Landscape, from page 252:
If you life on a farm the darkness before dawn is a familiar darkness and seems to bleed into the darkness after sunset as if daylight itself were but an idle interruption.

US CAPEX Spending On Shale: 10X Faster Than Rest Of World -- Bloomberg -- May 10, 2017

CAPEX concerns. Lots and lots of hand-wringing over how little money is being spent on off-shore oil E & P. Look at this: shale drillers are outspending the world with $84 billion spree -- Bloomberg.
U.S. shale explorers are boosting drilling budgets 10 times faster than the rest of the world to harvest fields that register fat profits even with the recent drop in oil prices.
Flush with cash from a short-lived OPEC-led crude rally, North American drillers plan to lift their 2017 outlays by 32 percent to $84 billion, compared with just 3 percent for international projects, according to analysts at Barclays Plc.
Much of the increase in spending is flowing into the Permian Basin, a sprawling, mile-thick accumulation of crude beneath Texas and New Mexico, where producers have been reaping double-digit returns even with oil commanding less than half what it did in 2014. That’s bad news for OPEC and its partners in a global campaign to crimp supplies and elevate prices. Wood Mackenzie Ltd. estimates that new spending will add 800,000 barrels of North American crude this year, equivalent to 44 percent of the reductions announced by the Saudi- and Russia-led group.

The Market And Energy Page, T+110 -- May 10, 2017

Midday Trading
Dow 30: almost back to zero; now about 17 points down. WTI surges almost 4% to $47.53.

Drawdown: weekly drawdown -- 6 million bbls. Compare to 0.9 million bbls previous reporting period, and generally in 1 - 3 million bbl range. At this rate, 6 million bbs/week, US would get to historical levels (350 million bbls) within 30 weeks. WTI after this report? Surges 1.4%, up 63 cents to $46.51. Okay. Whatever.

CAPEX concerns. Lots and lots of hand-wringing over how little money is being spent on off-shore oil E & P. Look at this: shale drillers are outspending the world with $84 billion spree -- Bloomberg


Futures: Dow 30 down 50 points. For the archives: fallout from FBI Director being fired by President Trump.

US technology: EOG's appliance of science creates a challenge for OPEC -- Bloomberg. The lede:
It is a good idea to be wary when a non-IT company gets rebranded -- either by itself or an exuberant investor -- as a 'tech' company.

However, it is intriguing when a company you don't associate with technology demonstrates a real affinity for it that shows up in good results. Enter EOG Resources Inc.

EOG, which reported results late Monday, remains an oil and gas exploration and production company. Yet on Tuesday morning's call, it took the unusual step of having Sandeep Bhakhri, its chief information and technology officer, provide a potted history of EOG's development of proprietary software tools, dating back to the 1990s.
Overall, cash costs look set to come in at $13 and change per barrel of oil equivalent in 2017 at the mid-point of EOG's guidance , the lowest since 2010.
Reported before today's US crude oil drawdown: oil falls as concern grows over battle of OPEC vs US shale. Data points, for Tuesday, May 9, 2017:
  • Brent futures fell 61 cents or 1.2%; settled at $48.73
  • WTI futures fell 55 cents, also 1.2%; settled at $45.88
  • both: lowest since May 4, 2017, and the second lowest since November 29, 2016
  • analysts forecast a crude oil inventory drop of 1.8 million bbls (actual was 6 million bbls)
  • in March, US crude hit an all-time of over 535.5 million bbls
More trouble for Saudi? Said to be considering wide-ranging partnership with Petrobras. Such a deal could give Exxon access to oil fields and infrastructure in Brazil while state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA could gain from Exxon’s expertise in production, refining and distribution.

Time, Inc: earnings worse than forecast
  • 1Q17: 18-cent loss vs 15-cent loss forecast 
  • shares down 6% in pre-market trading; down 10% when market opens

The Political Page, T+110 -- May 10, 2017

Comey: Besides former President Obama and former vice-president Joe Biden, the only person we haven't heard from regarding the firing of FBI Director James Comey is Hillary Clinton who says Comey was personally responsible for her losing the presidential race.

Comey: If the Dow 30 has a fairly good day today -- at worse, minimizing losses to less than 75 points, it will tell me all I need to know about the concern "Wall Street" has over the Comey firing.

Comey: joins a distinguished list. Only one FBI director has served the full 10 year appointment since J Edgar Hoover: Robert Mueller, III. The latter served an additional two years after legislation passed permitting him to head the agency two years longer than the law allowed.

Obama protecting the climate: private jet and 14-mostly-SUV convoy to get to climate speech.  Couldn't NetJet and Uber done the same thing for a whole lot less?

US Crude Oil Inventories Drop Significantly -- Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Drawdown: weekly drawdown -- 6 million bbls. Compare to 0.9 million bbls previous reporting period, and generally in 1 - 3 million bbl range. At this rate, 6 million bbs/week, US would get to historical levels (350 million bbls) within 30 weeks.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs502884192184

RBN Energy: midstream companies struggle to keep pace with Permian growth.
Permian crude oil production and pipeline takeaway capacity out of the region are in a horse race —it’s a close one too, and the stakes are high. Twice in the past few years, Permian production growth has outpaced the midstream sector’s ability to transport crude to market, resulting in negative price differentials that cost many producers big-time.
Now, thanks to increased drilling activity and producers’ heightened ability to wring more out of the play’s multistack formations, Permian production is expected to rise by at least another 1.5 million barrels/day (MMb/d) by 2022 —a 60%-plus gain over five years —raising the threat of another round of major price hits, maybe as soon as later this year. Today we continue a blog series on the challenges posed by rapid production gains in the hottest U.S. shale play.