Saturday, December 15, 2012

Random Update on Airline Boardings in North Dakota -- Provided By a Reader

This was sent in as a comment but because not everyone reads the comments, I brought it forward as a stand-alone post.

Interesting numbers from airport boardings in North Dakota. Comments:
  • Williston's November numbers, now, are what Minot's monthly numbers were in 2009
  • Minot's boardings are decelerating but are still increasing even with Williston's increased jet service
  • Minot's numbers will probably surpass those of Bismarck by next year
  • with a new airport, Williston may challenge both Minot and Bismarck
  • Not sure why Dickinson's numbers are down for November (maybe cancellations?). Dickinson's numbers are still up for the year
  • the center of state (Jamestown, Devils Lake) is really hurting.
    Grand Forks is up because of service to Orlando and Phoenix which is intended to siphon off Winnipeg traffic, as well as cut back on Fargo siphoning Grand Forks' area
Link: http://legacy.grandforksherald.com/pdfs/November%202012%20Boardings.pdf

Fracking Article in Current Issue of Harvard Magazine

Link here, sent in by a reader. Thank you.

The article states that CO2 is the most abundant greenhouse gas. If I recall correctly water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas. At least the LA Times (see below) is honest about this issue.

Sources:
  • here -- water vapor accounts for 95% of greenhouse gases
  • here -- water vapor is a greenhouse gas; percent not provided; "Natural sources of carbon dioxide are more than 20 times greater than sources due to human activity" (wiki)
  • here -- water vapor mentioned in passing (NOAA)
  • here -- water vapor -- 97% of greenhouse gases; not considered because water vapor cannot be easily "mitigated" (LA Times)
  • here -- CO2 causes more evaporation --> higher water vapor concentration (The Guardian)
  • here -- water vapor -- 95%; how much of the "greenhouse effect" is caused by human activity? 0.28% if water vapor is included; 5.5% if water vapor is not included
  • here -- water vapor, 60%; CO2, 20%
  • here -- water is a significant contributor to the greenhouse effect (NASA)
Of the CO2 in the atmosphere, 3% is anthropogenic.

The theses of the article:
  • fracking must be made safe
  • natural gas must be more expensive than coal but not significantly more expensive than wind (for wind to compete with natural gas at this point in time, wind requires a 2.2 cent kwh tax credit). From the article:
The cost for production of electricity using wind is about 8.0 cents per kilowatt hour [offshore wind costs 3x onshore wind]. Wind therefore can compete with $5/MMBTU gas only if it can continue to benefit from the existing production tax credit (PTC), currently 2.2 cents per kilowatt hour. If gas prices were to rise above $8.3/MMBTU, wind would be competitive even in the absence of the PTC. The problem in this case is that generation of power from coal would be cheaper than that from either gas or wind.
Natural gas futures:
Natural gas has tumbled 20.4 cents, or 5.7 percent, to $3.347 per million Btu so far this week in New York. Prices last week fell 0.3 percent and are up 12 percent this year.  -- 12/14/12, Bloomberg
$3.347 is a fair bit lower than $5/mmbtu referenced in the Harvard Magazine article.

And so it goes.

EOG's Clarks Creek Wells

Updates

December 29, 2018: updated graphic of part of this area of interest --


December 23, 2018: EOG to report two more huge Clarks Creek wells
  • 34448, 1,380, EOG, Clarks Creek 108-0706H, Clarks Creek, t6/18; cum 176K 5/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20181821240554
9-20182213439311
8-20182934047202
7-20184200647311
6-201827323998

  •  32800, 2,615, EOG, Clarks Creek 155-0706H, Clarks Creek, 4 sections, t6/18; cum 299K 5/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20182741787340
9-20183768278817
8-201866847111653
7-201888122107069
6-201860268203

November 22, 2018: five more great Clarks Creek wells;

January 30, 2017: production update here.

December 3, 2017: some more incredible Clarks Creek wells here

November 30, 2017: some incredible Clarks Creek wells here

June 24, 2017: most EOG Clarks Creek wells have recently been taken off-line. Looking at the NDIC map, I don't see any rig-on-site.

January 13, 2017: activity on an EOG Clarks Creek pad

Permits

2018 (list is complete)
34680, loc, EOG,
34679, loc, EOG,
34678, loc, EOG,
34677, loc, EOG,
34676, PNC,

2017 (list is complete)
34342, loc, EOG  Clarks Creek 130-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94,
33334, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 129-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94,
33275, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 38-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94,
33276, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 39-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94,
33277, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 40-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94,
33278, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 41-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94,
33279, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 42-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94,
33280, loc, EOG, Clarks Creek 43-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, SESE 8-151-94,

2016 (most recent permit added -- October 3, 2016) (note, as of 4/17, all wells below on SI/NC status are now "conf")
33050, 1,703, EOG, Clarks Creek 75-0719HX, SWSE 7-151-94, t6/17; cum 443K 5/19;
32800, 2,615, EOG, Clarks Creek 155-0706H, SWSE 7-151-94, Clark Creek, t6/18; cum 299K 5/19;
32799, 1,873, EOG, Clarks Creek 24-006H, SWSE 7-151094, Clarks Creek, t6/18; cum 310K 5/19;
32798, 1,744, EOG, Clarks Creek 107-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, Clarks Creek, t7/18; cum 242K 5/19;
32797, 2,172, EOG, Clarks Creek 72-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, Clarks Creek, t7/18; cum 259K 5/19;
32796, 2,518, EOG, in July, 2016, target formation was changed from middle Bakken, to Three Forks, first bench; Clarks Creek 73-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, t6/17; cum 328K 5/19;
32795, 2,204, EOG, Clarks Creek 110-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 44K first month (6/17); t6/17; cum 330K 5/19;
32794, 2,382, EOG, Clarks Creek 74-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94, 47K first month (6/17); 66K first full month; t6/17; cum 356K 5/19;

32793, dry/PNC, EOG, Clarks Creek 75-0719H, SWSE 7-151-94,

2015
  • 31058: a Clarks Creek well in Antelope oil field targeting the Sanish pool, but an MRO well, 3,661, MRO, Clarks Creek USA 14-35H, NWSE 34-152-94, t516; cum 377K 5/19;
2014
  • List is complete below
Original Post
Someone asked about this well:
  • 20602, 670, EOG, Clarks Creek 15-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool (middle Bakken), t7/12; cum 547K 5/19;
Early production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH5-201331156151566726192675553426067
SANISH4-20132915640155062100265241004416337
SANISH3-20133120623206552491325161002122342
SANISH2-2013198761822291695147018721
SANISH1-2013281145312666119913401013269
SANISH12-2012301900718490195619606019456
SANISH11-2012301193311824142812380012232
SANISH10-2012312723627481338356825056674
SANISH9-2012282908928689479662661062523
SANISH8-2012303605935494676161846061699
SANISH7-201261001997474127195101931

The EOG Clarks Creek wells in Antelope oil field and Clarks Creek oil field (note: some are 1280-acre spacing; others are 2560-acre spacing; the 2560-acre/4 sections stacked vertically, north to south):
  • 19790, 1,318, EOG, Clarks Creek 3-0805H, Antelope, a Sanish Pool well; t6/11; cum 451K 5/19;
  • 20307, IA/1,328, EOG, Clarks Creek 103-17H, Antelope, a Sanish Pool well; 320-acre spacing; t11/11; cum 153K 12/18; jump in production, 3/17; remains off line 5/19;
  • 20550, 1,478, EOG, Clarks Creek 10-0805H, Antelope, a Sanish Pool well; t6/12; cum 433K 5/19;
  • 20602, 670, EOG, Clarks Creek 3-0805H, Antelope,  production as of 10/12 --> 100K; see above for cumulative; t7/12; cum 547K 5/19;
  • 20886, 317, EOG, Clarks Creek 101-1819H, Clarks Creek, a Bakken Pool well; 4-section spacing; t4/12; cum 420K 5/19;20887 huge jump in production, 8/17;
  • 20887, 1,455, EOG, Clarks Creek 13-1806H, Clarks Creek, a Bakken Pool well; 4-section spacing; t3/12; cum 393K 5/19; see this post;
  • 20888, 3,415, EOG, Clarks Creek 14-1819H, Clarks Creek, a Bakken Pool well; 4-section spacing; t6/11; cum 303K 5/19;
  • 20890, 600, EOG, Clarks Creek 11-0706H, Clarks Creek, a Bakken Pool well; 4-section spacing; t3/12; cum 362K 5/19;
  • 20891, 603, EOG, Clarks Creek 12-0719H, Clarks Creek, a Bakken Pool; 4-section spacing; t8/11; cum 314K 5/19;
  • 20892, 1,352, EOG, Clarks Creek 16-0706H, Clarks Creek, a Bakken Pool well; 4-section spacing; t3/12; cum 358K 5/19; see this post;
  • 22505, 1,437, EOG, Clarks Creek 100-0805H, Antelope, a Sanish Pool well; t6/12; cum 400K 5/19;
The wells in the 4-section spacing are sited midway between the north two sections and the south two sections. The horizontals are 2-section (long) horizontals. Again, some mineral owners are receiving checks from wells/horizontals that are not running through their mineral rights acres. See earlier post on this discussion.

Note: EOG's plans for 6 wells on a 320-acre spacing unit in this area, in Antelope field. There are six 320-acre spacing units in Antelope field.

North Dakota Oil Rush, Crude-By-Rail, US CO2 Emissions At A 20-Year Low -- Forbes

From Forbes.com (sent by Don):
In thinking about what is to come, looking back five years helps set the stage.
January 2008: The energy sector was facing the great recession, high current and future expected natural gas prices, and job losses to China. There was a generally poor outlook for the energy industry and the economy. Few could have predicted the changes that were to come. 
Unforeseen happenings include the North Dakota oil rush, liquefied natural gas facilities being used as export facilities (instead of as import facilities as originally planned), railroads hauling crude oil, and jobs coming back from China.
And, this is just the beginning. 
The commencement of the crude oil and natural gas revolution can be boiled down to one simple equation: Abundant resources + cost effective extraction = high production levels of unconventional oil and gas. 
The net effect is a reshaping of the U.S. energy industry and our economy. Additionally, the country’s increased reliance on natural gas (displacing coal) has already benefited the environment, and will continue to do so in the future. 
Carbon emissions hit a 20-year low (in the first quarter 2012 according to EIA) and some industry observers believe that the U.S. could meet the Kyoto agreement standards by 2020 (even though the U.S. did not sign it).

The Honda Civic -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

Note for the Granddaughters

As regular readers know, my primary form of transportation is the bicycle. It used to be the bus and subway, but I haven't used either in quite some months. Everything I need is within cycling distance. This is all when I'm in the Boston area.

But I do have access to automobiles when I need them, primarily to transport the granddaughters various places, and when I drive Miss Daisy to see the ocean; and in California where a car is a must. It is what it is. In Texas, a rental.

I've mentioned that my favorite computer company is Apple, and my favorite car is the Honda Civic, though I don't think often about the latter ... except when I drive it. And "bang for buck" it's an incredible car.

So, today I was surprised to read this in the LA Times:
Honda’s Civic was the bestselling passenger car in November with sales of 30,075 cars.
This might be the end-of-year rankings:
  • Ford F-150 pickup (yup, once again)
  • Toyota Camry (surprise #2 over the Silverado)
  • Chevy Silverado
  • The Honda Civic
Who wudda guessed?

***********************

Elsewhere, I seem to remember the question, "was the 'zero' discovered or invented?" The question appears not to be trivial; a google search revealed 14,300,000 returns.  I am reminded of that question when I listen to Willie Nelson's "Crazy." This is not my favorite "version" but I wanted something different, and in this case one hears three wonderful voices, five if you count the piano and the guitar. But I digress.

I guess I've been listening to "Crazy" for more than 40 years. (Patsy's version was #2 in '62; Roger Maris, #61 in '61) and after all these years it finally dawned on me, while listening to this version: did Willie Nelson write "Crazy" or did he "discover" it. I find it interesting how much music is a part of our lives.

Crazy, Willie Nelson, Diana Krall, Elvis Costello

What Can You Do With Coal Gasification?

Updates

December 18, 2012:  The Weyburn oil field in Canada gets its CO2 from the Dakota Gasification Corporation in Beulah, North Dakota.
The native of Croatia noted that his company operates the world's largest carbon sequestration project, the Weyburn-Midale Carbon Dioxide Project in Weyburn, Saskatchewan. The Weyburn field has been producing since the mid-1950s and currently produces 27,000 gross barrels a day. Researchers representing more than 30 countries estimate about 30 million tonnes of CO2 will be sequestered over the life of the project.
See point #3 below in the original post. 
 
Original Post
Let me count the ways:
  • ammonium sulfate, an agricultural fertilizer
  • anhydrous ammonia, a fertilizer and feedstock for various chemicals
  • carbon dioxide, for EOR
  • dephenolized cresylic acid, for pesticides, enamel solvents, epoxy resins
  • krypton and xenon gases, the former to stop Superman, otherwise specialty lighting
  • liquid nitrogen, for food processing
  • naphtha, a gasoline blend stock
  • phenol, for resins
Now, possibly a ninth: urea, a granular farm fertilizer.

At the Minot Daily News:
One of the most unique energy plants in the nation is looking at the possibility of expanding its portfolio of byproducts, which would be beneficial to not just the plant, but farmers, as well.
Dakota Gasification Co., which is a subsidiary of Basin Electric Power Cooperative, is conducting a study to determine the viability of building a urea plant at the Great Plains Synfuels Plant near Beulah. The main product of the plant is synthetic natural gas, which is manufactured from coal through a gasification process.
The Great Plains Synfuels Plant is the only commercial-scale coal gasification plant in the United States that manufactures natural gas.

Update on Keystone XL in Montana; Montana Approves Pipeline To Nowhere

Updates

December 17, 2012: Montana approves pipeline to nowhere.
Montana on Monday approved easements to let the Keystone XL pipeline cross state-owned land, including the Missouri and Yellowstone rivers. 

The Land Board, chaired by Gov. Brian Schweitzer, running his last meeting before leaving office, sold the package of 50-year easements to TransCanada for $741,000. The board also finalized approval for land leases for the completion of the Montana-Alberta Tie Line.
Original Post

Nice map of where the Keystone XL will go through Montana. Does not go through North Dakota, and actually misses the state by quite some distance, except in the far southwest corner.

Unless there is "twinning," no Bakken oil is going to go in that heavy oil sands pipeline. Just saying.

*************************

Added later: The most definitive layperson's description of the Keystone XL mentions a single pipeline; there is no mention of "twinning." But this is a layperson's description; without technical details I do not know if there will be two pipelines. I am quite sure that in the original plans there was no "second" pipeline for light sweet crude. So, we'll see. I am still looking for a source to answer the question.

Added later: In addition, a cursory review of the description of the pipeline provided by TransCanada says nothing about a second pipeline to carry light sweet Bakken crude oil, including the official document describing the pipeline. 

Added later: In addition, a landowner in Texas recently sued to stop the construction of the pipeline across his Texas property because the easement permit was for a crude oil pipeline, not a bitumen pipeline. The court stopped construction for a short period, but then allowed construction to continue. There was no mention of a second pipeline.

*************************

A reader provides these links regarding the Keystone: I see no reference to a dual pipe.
TransCanada documents related to the on ramp aka the Bakken Marketlink, http://www.transcanada.com/search_results.html?q=Bakken+on-ramp&x=0&y=0
If the link is not live by the time you get it, use “Marketlink” at the TransCanada website search engine, you will find 8 documents including the note from Governor Brian Schweitzer and Senator Max Baucus.
Links to good route maps at TransCanada’s web site, http://www.transcanada.com/5730.html
KeystoneXL project e-mail address, http://www.transcanada.com/5736.html

Saturday Morning Links

WSJ Links, Weekend Edition

Section D: theme for the day -- cutting the "cable cord." There's a little blurb on how to stream some television shows that are not available through Apple due to "rights."
Fortunately, there's a simple workaround: You can connect most newer laptops to a TV using the right cord. The MacBook Pro with Retina display is my favorite laptop entertainment hub. It supports Airplay Mirroring, a feature for wirelessly beaming what's on your computer to a television using an Apple TV (or perhaps one day to the Apple-designed TV set that the company is reportedly testing). But the laptop's display is so beautiful -- its resolution is higher than most TVs'  -- that you may not feel the need for a bigger screen. 
Even without Retina display, I think my MacBook Pro is more enjoyable to "watch" than the "old" television set provided me wherever I travel.

Section C: theme for the day -- high state college costs. States passing the costs on to the students and families.

Wow, wow, wow: books, books, and more books. Reviews.

It starts with "celebrating the forgotten man of the DNA quest." I have read two or three books on the discovery of the helix and thought I knew the story pretty well, but it turns out there was a fifth man: Raymond Gosling. My wife and I go back and forth on whether Rosalind Franklin deserved an equal amount of credit for the discovery. My wife does not waiver in her feelings; I go back and forth.

Too many books to even begin listing.

Section B: 

Hmmm, there's an interesting little graphic on page B1 -- and now I'm interrupted by Norah Jones' "I'm Feeling the Same Way (All Over Again)" -- ah, the stories that could be told, but won't -- but I digress. Where was I? Ah, the interesting graphic on page B1 in which Ford is challenging the EPA on the way the latter calculates mileage. When the story first broke, I sided with the EPA, thinking Ford massaged the data. But over the past 24 hours, perhaps starting with a story and comments regarding the Bakken, I'm siding with Ford on this one. Maybe more later. But back to the graphic. The caption: "hybrid cars' maximum speed on electric-power varies significantly." Again, these are the maximum speeds these hybrid cars can get on electric power alone (MPH for one mile):
  • Toyota Camry Hybrid: 25 mph
  • Toyota Prius V: 25 mph
  • Honda Accord Hybrid EV mode: 45 mph
  • Ford C-Max, EV Mode: 62 mph
I find those figures ... well .... well ... appalling. Did anyone know? The Toyota Prius max speed on electricity alone? 25 mph.  Tell me again, the EV is going to replace the conventional gasoline engine any time soon. [See comments below: again, this seems very, very counter-intuitive. The Prius gasoline engine kicking in at 25 mph.]

Another coal-fired electricity utility about to bite the dust: Edison Mission, with a photograph of its coal-fired power plant in Chicago. I assume the President is breaking out a bottle of champagne. I don't have a dog in this fight; just an observation. Page 3. There is a story on Best Buy on that page also, but I didn't read it. I think the writing is on the wall for that BBS also.

Section A: of course we know what the headline story will be. Sometime ... nah, not now.  Okay, one random thought. Everyday, there must be a thousand (perhaps I exaggerate, but not much) highway "jobs" in Massachusetts -- some of them major projects, most of them filling potholes or re-covering residential streets. And something I've never seen in North Dakota: no matter how small, how trivial the work, the law must require a uniformed policeman (or two, or more) to be on site. In most cases, I have no idea why a uniformed policeman is needed. There are crossing guards at every school. But I don't recall anything as horrific, ever, in a crossing walk, or anything as horrific, ever, at a worksite repairing a residential street as what happened yesterday in Newtown. It's not like this is unexpected (Columbine, 1999). [I wrote that this a.m. around 10:00 local time. Now I see this article over at Drudge, about 5:35 pm tonight:
Government officials told the Washington Guardian on Friday night that two Justice Department programs that had provided more than $200 million to schools for training, security equipment and police resources over the last decade weren't renewed in 2011 and 2012, and that a separate program that provided $800 million to put police officers inside the schools was ended a few years earlier.
Criminal. Exactly what I said! Incredible. Sad. This won't be mentioned on the Sunday morning talk shows. The media will give the administration a pass on this. We don't have cops in schools but we have cops at every construction job in Massachusetts, no matter how trivial.]

Right-to-work:
Whenever I post a note about right-to-work states, etc., I get one or two comments, but I can't post them because they provide no links to their sources and/or add nothing to the discussion. For those looking for a source, here's a nice story on page 3 of the front section: states that bar mandatory union dues tend toward more jobs.

But lower wages.

So, what is one to do? The graphic is most illustrative. It certainly suggests all the emotionalism surrounding unions has little to do with wages. Look at the graphic. Employer cost per owrker per hour, for September 2012:
  • Northeast (not one right-to-work state): $33/hour
  • South (almost 100% right-to-work): $26/hour
  • West (pretty much split 50/50): $30/hour
  • Midwest (pretty much split 50/50): $28/hour
Even without "qualifiers" the differences in wages are not that great, but the delta seems correlated more with standard of living/cost of living than with unions. These employer costs will go significantly (?) with ObamaCare, they say.

I'm beginning to think it's less about $/hour and more to do with other issues -- perhaps productivity?
By the way, that headline, "the states that bar mandatory union dues tend toward more jobs but lower wages" tells one nothing. I would assume that where there are larger industrial factories, there are more unions.
Related:
Military health care: This is interesting: something I don't think I've ever seen in the WSJ -- cliff talks avoid military health plan; Tricare's costs have grown sharply, but potential savings aren't on the table; veterans resist calls to carry heavier burden. Photo with amputee. I believe rates are going up.

Now, about the benefits of marijuana (but gloss over the downside): Portenoy's complaint: a pain-drug champion has second thoughts.

Wow, it's going to be a long weekend of reading.