Monday, October 18, 2021

The FBIR Guyblackhawk Wells In Heart Butte

The wells:

  • 26881, dry, XTO, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27E, Heart Butte,
  • 26879, 1,940, XTO, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27A, Heart Butte, t7/14; cum 311K 8/21; off line 7/21;
  • 20215, 2,140, XTO, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27B, Heart Butte, t2/12; cum 452K 3/21; off line 4/21; remains off line 8/21;
  • 36930, conf, XTO, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27C, Heart Butte, first production announced, see below;
  • 36928, conf, XTO, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27D, Heart Butte, first production announced, see below;
  • 27443, 2,152, XTO, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27ER, Heart Butte, t7/14; cum 313K 6/21; off line 7/21 - 8/21;
  • 26878, 1,367, XTO, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27F, Heart Butte, t7/14; cum 297K 3/2; off line 4/21 - 8/21;
  • 36391, 844, XTO, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27G, Heart Butte, t1/20; cum 174K 8/21;
  • 36929, conf, XTO, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27H, Heart Butte, first production announced, see below;

Well of interest:

  • 30642, 3,572, Rimrock Oil & Gas, Two Shields Butte 13-22-33-16h, Heart Butte, t9/15; cum 459K 8/21; off line, 3/20 - 11/20; when it returned to status, at least as good, perhaps better than before it came off line;

Early production:

  • 36931:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36930:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36928:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36929:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Notes From All Over -- Late Afternoon Edition -- October 18, 2021

Resident Biden has apparently reached out to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to release / produce / export more crude oil for the United States. Not confirmed. But the real question is whether OPEC can actually do that even if it wanted. Let's go Brandon!

Saudi crude oil inventories were at 133 million bbls in August, 2021, vs 135 million bbls in July. But note: this is the lowest it has been since January, 2002.

Link here

Kuwait: the Kuwait Oil Company has reported a third straight year of decline in its sustainable crude oil production capacity, which now stands at 2.579 million bpd. Link here

UK energy crisis: another UK energy retailer goes down, GOTO Energy Limited; small outfit; only 22,000 customers. But this brings the total to 13 UK gas and electricity retailers that have collapsed, hitting two million households. Link here.


Those who said oil would trend higher today -- 82% of respondents -- were correct.

Next poll: number of active rigs in the Bakken next August, 2022.

No New Permits; Enerplus Reports Two Completed DUCs -- October 18, 2021

Say what? Germany depends on Russia for its natural gas supply and Germans want more natural gas from Russia, less obstacles, but not through Nord Stream 2. The North Stream 2 pipeline cannot be approved because of the EU Gas Directive. Link here

According to Russian PM Alexander Novak additional gas supplies need talks and contracts. 
Interestingly, Novak also said there is no actual gas shortage in Europe despite lower than normal storage facility fill rates. 
This was echoed by German energy minister Peter Almeier, who said that gas storage in the country was 75 percent full and that Germany was not dependent on Russia for its gas supply.

Energy 101: two reasons European natural gas prices climbed so high. Link to Leonary Hyman & Williams Tilles.   

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2816617055

No new permits.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed

  • 36417, 1,659, Enerplus, Wm Polar 157-101-25A-36-4B,
  • 26415 1,551, Enerplus, Wm Polar 157-101-25A-36-2B,

Apple -- Special Event -- October 18, 2021

 I have "never" seen AAPL go up in price during or following a "special Apple event," of which there are generally two each year. 

Apple has held two special events in less than a month.

AAPL went up during / after the presentation, gaining almost a percent on a "down / flat" day for the Dow. AAPL, after the event, was up 0.94%, added a $1.43 to the share price, and was trading at $146.30.

Sunday Night -- Focus On Fracking -- October 18, 2021

Focus on Fracking: link here

After Midnight

Star-gazing: I honestly did not know star-gazing in the autumn was a thing. From The WSJ:

Where to Go Stargazing, Whether Your Budget Is $95 or $95,000 This fall is high time to get starry-eyed. Five astronomy-focused getaways, from a low-key adventure in North Carolina’s Outer Banks to a ‘Sky’s the Limit’ package in California’s Wine Country 

That caught me by surprise, the coincidence, because Sophia and I have been having a ball looking at the heavens  the past few evenings. The skies have been so clear, and with the "star-gazing" app on the iPhone -- wow, what a great time.  

The best star-gazing nights I have ever enjoyed, northern England, just this side of the Scottish border, from August to November, some years ago. 

Life is a butterfly, Lana Del Rey

Slim Chickens: my wife and I each had a chicken sandwich tonight at Slim Chickens just on the other side of DFW. First time we had visited. Very, very nice. She had the regular crispy; I had the cayenne. 

Say yes to heaven, Lana Del Rey

Dallas Cowboys: incredible game.

Seattle - Steelers: even more incredible.

Notes From All Over -- The Bacon Edition -- October 18, 2021

Bacon: the poster child for inflation. Why? For several reasons, not least of which, California wants to ban bacon, or at least make it prohibitively expensive. 

I always argue that simply looking at the cost of something does not even begin to tell the whole story.

For example: US Postal Services first-class stamps have become prohibitively expensive for most individuals and all commercial enterprises. But most individuals and all commercial enterprises have quit buying USPS stamps to maximum extent possible. Total USPS mailing costs for the individual have come down considerably over the past decade because folks have so many alternatives. 

So, same with bacon. No matter how expensive bacon gets, a vegan probably won't notice.

I love bacon but have never eaten much -- health and weight issues. But several years ago, I went even further, cutting my intake from three slices of bacon to one slice of bacon when I did have bacon which was not particularly often. A 12-ounce package of bacon sometimes goes "bad" in my refrigerator before I get around to using it all. 

An aside: often when frying one slice of bacon, I offer half to my wife and she gladly accepts. And I eat even less.

But now, I've gone a step further. I don't buy bacon at all. At least not recently. I've replaced it with Spam. And the amount of Spam I eat at any one sitting is actually less than one slice of bacon.

It's important to note this has nothing to do with price. I could care / couldn't care less about the cost of bacon. I eat so little, the cost is negligible in my total monthly expenditures. I eat less bacon simply due to health reasons. 

However, now that bacon has become such a poster child for inflation, I have switched to Spam simply because ... well, simply because ...


So, let's check on-line prices of various products:

  • Spam, classic, 12 oz:
    • Tom Thumb (local grocery store, chain): $3.29
    • Walmart: $2.98
  • Bacon:
    • Wild Fork, 10 oz: $8.98 - $9.48; equates to $14.40 / pound
    • Oscar Mayer Hardwood, Target, 16 ounces: $8.99
    • Great Value Hickory, Walmart, 12 ounces: $3.43 (no typo) (equates to $4.57 /pound)

So, I haven't had time to actually compare, but I think my one can of Spam used in place of bacon will last at least twice as long as a typical package of bacon (from ten to sixteen ounces).

So, best price comparison:

  • one can of Spam vs 12-ounce package of bacon from Walmart.
  • $3.00 vs $5.00 

On The Nile

Just in her imagination! LOL. Actually on Grapevine Lake, TX, a few miles northwest of DFW airport, but with a feeling of being on a different continent.

Notes From All Over -- The Road_To_Minnesota Edition -- October 18, 2021

NFL tonight: Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans. 

Crude oil: up for third day in a row. Highest in seven years. 

Minnesota: "No pipelines for environmental reasons? Fine, deal with the same oil via rail! Congratulation! 👋 Railroad venture boosts the number of oil trains in Minnesota" / Twitter. Link here.

Flashback: Huffington Post trying to reassure folks that killing the Keystone XL won't result in more CBR. Originally posted November 9, 2016. Link here. Unless I missed it, the writer conveniently ignored DAPL. From wiki, a reminder of the timeline:

The $3.78 billion project was announced to the public in June 2014, and informational hearings for landowners took place between August 2014 and January 2015. Dakota Access, LLC, controlled by Energy Transfer Partners, started constructing the pipeline in June 2016.

Crude exports by rail: see for yourself. Link here

Zillow under pressure. "Absolutely hilarious. Large scale automated house flipping isn't a good idea??? I've been saying this for a while, but I sure $OPEN has cracked the code.... Also jacking up house prices for average Americans is just a terrible idea societally." / Twitter. Link here.

Notes From All Over -- The Streaming War Edition -- October 18, 2021


  • Netflix: up $4.40, up 0.70%
  • DIS: down 2.2%; down $3.80

Streaming wars: tracked here.

  • analysts suggest Disney struggling with subscriber numbers -- CNBC.
  • Disney shares under pressure
  • is Wall Street too optimistic on Disney+

Spending: previously posted, simply a reminder:

Netflix has said it intends to spend $17 billion to produce content in 2021. While reports in 2017 said Apple was spending just $1 billion on its initial slate of original content, by 2019 the tech giant had reportedly increased its original content budget to $6 billion to compete with the bigger streaming giants.

Early Numbers, Monday Morning -- October 18, 2021

REMINDER: Apple special event today, 12:00 noon CT.  

Bitcoin: continues to surge. Pre-market, up 560 points, now trading above $61,000.

WTI: $83.56, pre-market.

Minnesota: "No pipelines for environmental reasons? Fine, deal with the same oil via rail! Congratulation! 👋 Railroad venture boosts the number of oil trains in Minnesota" / Twitter. Link here

OPEC: Bloomberg Energy on Twitter: "OPEC and its allies once again fail to pump enough oil to meet their output targets, exacerbating the supply deficit supply as the world recovers from the coronavirus pandemic" / Twitter. Link here. This is even more interesting given the fact that Brent is trading around $85. Also here, whoops.

Japan: Javier Blas on Twitter: "OIL MARKET: Japan becomes the second G7 nation after the U.S. to publicly call on oil producers (read OPEC+) to boost output amid surging prices above $85 a barrel." / Twitter. Link here

India: "India's sharp revival in #gasoline appetite, surpassing even pre-pandemic levels, has prompted its refiners to increasingly queue up to import lighter crudes in recent months, but the fourth quarter could see changes in this trend. #Petrol #Diesel #Gasoil" / Twitter. Link here. GASOLINE REBOUND MAKES LIGHT CRUDE FLAVOR OF THE MONTH IN INDIA.

Lighter grade crudes, such as US West Texas Intermediate, Nigeria's Akpo and Kazakhstan's CPC Blend have been in demand among Indian refiners as they have tried to maximize production of in-demand gasoline, which as come at the cost of reduction in purchases of some heavier Middle Eastern crudes, analysts said.

Kang Wu, head of global oil demand and Asia analytics at Platts, said India's mobility index continued to improve from 172% in September to over 200% at the start of October with the easing of pandemic movement restriction measures.

"Indian refiners are looking to adjust their crude oil import mix in favor of sweeter and lighter grades that can be refined to maximize production of light distillates, to feed increased production of gasoline needed to meet the recent surge in demand for the fuel," Kapoor added.

Market becoming increasingly tight: Latest Argus Global Markets weekly says Opec+ is impervious to signs that the market is becoming increasingly tight "Oil prices are less volatile than other energy sources because the supply chain can be more flexible. But supply, and suppliers, are proving inflexible so far."" / Twitter. Link here

Putin: tea leaves suggests Russia not providing that extra natural gas to Europe as "promised." If anything, extra Russian gas going to Asia. From twitter:

"🚨No gas for you🚨 No evidence of an increase in Russian gas supplies to Europe next month in today’s keenly awaited pipeline capacity auctions, despite hints from Putin and friends in recent weeks. European gas prices jump almost 18%" / Twitter

Old news: Hart Energy on Twitter: "Once gone to waste, flared gas is becoming the energy source of choice to power advanced computing systems used for cryptocurrency." / Twitter. From twitter

Colin Powell: wow. CNBC is focusing on the "breakthrough death." They are trying very, very hard to convince listeners this was rare, very unusual for a Covid death in a person fully vaccinated. It's almost embarrassing. Embarrassing because they don't seem to know the statistics. There have been a lot of fully vaccinated deaths. Joe Kernan talking with governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire (R).

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, daily update by NDIC COB:

Active Rigs2916617055

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: the energy crunch, decarbonization goals, forecasts, and Putin.

If the ongoing global energy crunch is teaching us anything, it’s that decarbonizing the world’s economy may be even more difficult than many had figured. While a strong case can be made for reducing — or even slashing — greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by shifting to low-carbon and no-carbon energy sources, the sheer magnitude of the undertaking means there are likely to be major setbacks and compromises along the way. Setbacks like having to turn to coal-fired generation this winter to help keep parts of the Northern Hemisphere warm and productive, and compromises like acknowledging that sometimes the wind doesn’t blow, the sun doesn’t shine, and utilities need to burn a lot more natural gas to make up the difference — assuming there’s enough gas around to burn, that is. One more takeaway from current events is that energy security in the form of being able to count on your counterparties is a pretty big deal. (We’re looking at you, Vladimir Putin.) With all that in mind, in today’s RBN blog, we examine the long-term outlook for energy and GHG emissions as the United Nations’ climate change conference in Glasgow, Scotland, looms on the horizon.

You could say that how all this plays out is anyone’s guess. And by “this” we could be referring to either the energy supply/demand situation this winter in the northern half of the globe or the prospects for meeting the mid-century goals for decarbonization set by the U.S. and other participants in the Paris Agreement nearly six years ago. Short supply and soaring energy prices, for natural gas in particular, are likely to lead to a lot more coal being burned in green-as-can-be Western Europe this heating season. It’s a hard pill to swallow, and a dose of harsh reality — there’s simply not enough gas around to ensure that everyone there can stay warm and still meet the area’s energy needs, especially if it’s an unusually cold winter or if the region’s wind farms and other renewable energy sources continue to be erratic producers.

Those issues, along with the social impact of higher commodity prices on still-recovering and vulnerable populations are sure to be hot topics at the aforementioned UN Climate Change Conference (COP 26). After Paris, the world seemed to say, “We need to make a change and invest in the future.” The key question this time around will be “How long?” How long will the current energy crisis last? How long will demand for hydrocarbon-based energy continue to hold up (or expand) before demand starts to decline? How long will it be until low- or no-carbon technologies can reliably satisfy demand for energy and all the other things hydrocarbons are used for? And this: How long before the effects of too-high GHG emissions lead to catastrophe?